Ellsbury and Bradley

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Ellsbury and Bradley

    I'm a fan of both and have assumed throughout this season that Ellsbury is leaving and Bradley will start in CF next year. 

    That said, I think Bradley, who is a very good outfielder with a terrific arm, has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching.  At the same age and with virtually identical opportunities, Ellsbury had already demonstrated that ability--see 2007.  Ellsbury is much faster on the base paths and in the OF, is beginning to look an awful lot like a .300 or better hitter, leads the Sox in runs scored, is just behind Pedroia in total hits, and is third on the Sox in total bases.  In short, right now the two are about even in fielding--maybe the edge goes to Bradley because of his arm--but Ellsbury has a huge edge on offense, which is why he replaced Coco Crisp in 2008. 

    I still think Ellsbury is gone after this year, but am beginning to think he will leave a hole in the offense. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    ellsbury has certainly turned his season around.  although his power numbers are no where to be found...he is acting the quintessential leadoff hitter.  which is what he is.  satan boras will sell him to the highest bidder and his price tag is increasing with every knock.

    after a hot spring training, you are dead on....bradley has shown nothing in his AB's to prove he can handle big league pitching.  i would like to believe he can and will as i believe ells will be playing elsewhere next year. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    Bradley will not be the same offensive player that Jacoby was.  If people are expecting a kid who will batting titles and hit HR's then they will be very dissapointed in what JBJ brings.

    What Bradely is, is a truly elite defensive player at a position that is highly defensive minded.  he likely hit at a decent clip, I see him being a .270-.280 guy who may have some .300 seasons in his prime.  With that AVG I still think his ceiling is a leadoff hitter because he may be that guy who walks a TON.  So his offense will be above average, but barely above average.  Seeing how the typical fan thinks that for a player to be a good batter they have to hit .300 and knock out 30 I think a lot will be dissapointed in his career.

    I think JBJ will also be that guy that brings a lot of intangibles to the table; he will have those 15 pitch at bats that wear down a pitcher, he will be the guy who hussles to get to 3B from 1B and do all those other little things that the box score scouts can't appreciate. 

    Personally.......I like the kinda player JBJ will likely be; but I'm fully aware that some here will truly underappreciate him. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Bradley will not be the same offensive player that Jacoby was.  If people are expecting a kid who will batting titles and hit HR's then they will be very dissapointed in what JBJ brings.

    What Bradely is, is a truly elite defensive player at a position that is highly defensive minded.  he likely hit at a decent clip, I see him being a .270-.280 guy who may have some .300 seasons in his prime.  With that AVG I still think his ceiling is a leadoff hitter because he may be that guy who walks a TON.  So his offense will be above average, but barely above average.  Seeing how the typical fan thinks that for a player to be a good batter they have to hit .300 and knock out 30 I think a lot will be dissapointed in his career.

    I think JBJ will also be that guy that brings a lot of intangibles to the table; he will have those 15 pitch at bats that wear down a pitcher, he will be the guy who hussles to get to 3B from 1B and do all those other little things that the box score scouts can't appreciate. 

    Personally.......I like the kinda player JBJ will likely be; but I'm fully aware that some here will truly underappreciate him. 



    JBJ will hit more HRs than Ellsbury.  Scouts see him as 10-15 HR guy.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Bradley will not be the same offensive player that Jacoby was.  If people are expecting a kid who will batting titles and hit HR's then they will be very dissapointed in what JBJ brings.

    What Bradely is, is a truly elite defensive player at a position that is highly defensive minded.  he likely hit at a decent clip, I see him being a .270-.280 guy who may have some .300 seasons in his prime.  With that AVG I still think his ceiling is a leadoff hitter because he may be that guy who walks a TON.  So his offense will be above average, but barely above average.  Seeing how the typical fan thinks that for a player to be a good batter they have to hit .300 and knock out 30 I think a lot will be dissapointed in his career.

    I think JBJ will also be that guy that brings a lot of intangibles to the table; he will have those 15 pitch at bats that wear down a pitcher, he will be the guy who hussles to get to 3B from 1B and do all those other little things that the box score scouts can't appreciate. 

    Personally.......I like the kinda player JBJ will likely be; but I'm fully aware that some here will truly underappreciate him. 

     



    JBJ will hit more HRs than Ellsbury.  Scouts see him as 10-15 HR guy.  

     



    What scouts?  I've seen him projecting as a single digit HR hitter....although i can see him as a 8-12 guys who has 2-3 were maybe he hits 15-20 in his prime, MAYBE.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Bradley will not be the same offensive player that Jacoby was.  If people are expecting a kid who will batting titles and hit HR's then they will be very dissapointed in what JBJ brings.

    What Bradely is, is a truly elite defensive player at a position that is highly defensive minded.  he likely hit at a decent clip, I see him being a .270-.280 guy who may have some .300 seasons in his prime.  With that AVG I still think his ceiling is a leadoff hitter because he may be that guy who walks a TON.  So his offense will be above average, but barely above average.  Seeing how the typical fan thinks that for a player to be a good batter they have to hit .300 and knock out 30 I think a lot will be dissapointed in his career.

    I think JBJ will also be that guy that brings a lot of intangibles to the table; he will have those 15 pitch at bats that wear down a pitcher, he will be the guy who hussles to get to 3B from 1B and do all those other little things that the box score scouts can't appreciate. 

    Personally.......I like the kinda player JBJ will likely be; but I'm fully aware that some here will truly underappreciate him. 




    Sounds like you are describing Rick Miller with a little more power.  Bradley would have a very nice career at that level of performance.  Not a guy you build a team around, but one you want on your club.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley


    I HOPE Bradley can develop , but am becoming pessimistic due to his bat so far. I once projected him as Brett Butler with a better arm, now I'm hoping he's better than Paul Blair or Herm Winningham.

    A leadoff hitter's job is to get on base and score runs. Power is merely a possible bonus. Lou Brock, Tim Raines, Lonnie Smith, Paul Molitor, Mickey Rivers or Willie Wilson didn't hit bunches of homers, yet were gold standards as leadoff men in their times.

    Ellsbury can do the job here in Boston. I say pay the man. Ben C. should have plenty of money available, especially if Lester's option isn't excercised. I may be all wet but am guessing 5 years / $ 80 million gets it done, with some games played / injury clauses.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to jimedfred's comment:


    I HOPE Bradley can develop , but am becoming pessimistic due to his bat so far. I once projected him as Brett Butler with a better arm, now I'm hoping he's better than Paul Blair or Herm Winningham.

    A leadoff hitter's job is to get on base and score runs. Power is merely a possible bonus. Lou Brock, Tim Raines, Lonnie Smith, Paul Molitor, Mickey Rivers or Willie Wilson didn't hit bunches of homers, yet were gold standards as leadoff men in their times.

    Ellsbury can do the job here in Boston. I say pay the man. Ben C. should have plenty of money available, especially if Lester's option isn't excercised. I may be all wet but am guessing 5 years / $ 80 million gets it done, with some games played / injury clauses.



    If I were BC and Ells walked into my office offering to take 5/$80 I'd be salivating all over myself and trying to get him to sign something before he changed his mind.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm a fan of both and have assumed throughout this season that Ellsbury is leaving and Bradley will start in CF next year. 

    That said, I think Bradley, who is a very good outfielder with a terrific arm, has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching.  At the same age and with virtually identical opportunities, Ellsbury had already demonstrated that ability--see 2007. 

    Small sample sizes, but true (on offense). Ellsbury was not the fielder he is now back in 2007 and 2008.

    Ellsbury is much faster on the base paths and in the OF, is beginning to look an awful lot like a .300 or better hitter, leads the Sox in runs scored, is just behind Pedroia in total hits, and is third on the Sox in total bases.  In short, right now the two are about even in fielding--maybe the edge goes to Bradley because of his arm

    Bradley is a better fileder, even without the arm advantage, and he is much better now than Ellsbury was back in 2007-2008.

    --but Ellsbury has a huge edge on offense, which is why he replaced Coco Crisp in 2008. 

    Little known fact: Crisp had 886 innings in CF  in 2008 compared to Ellsbury's 547 (Ellsbury had 346 innings in LF and 281 in RF). He also took the CF job back in the '08 playoffs by hitting .450 (.542 OBP) vs TB in the ALCS.

    I still think Ellsbury is gone after this year, but am beginning to think he will leave a hole in the offense. 

    He will be missed, for sure. His speed and decent OBP from the leadoff slot will not be easily filled by anyone in our system. We may see Nava (no speed) vs RHPs and Victorino vs LHPs in 2014 leading off.

    Still, I agree, he will walk this winter, and we will have to spend some money to try and fill his shoes while still allowing JBj a chance to shine. Not an easy task.



     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    JBJ is a tremendous OBP guy, therefore he'll be a great lead-off hitter.  He'll be a great defensive centerfielder on top of that.  True, he won't hit like Ells, so there is drop-off there.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Bradley as of now is not a better fielder than Ells .at this point. Spend some time watching Bradley he often breaks the wrong way on balls.  Does a better job on bloops than balls hit over his head.  This may improve once he gets familar with the Major League ballparks  .Why try to spend money over the winter on another foolish contract like Vic's.?   If we don't sign Ells we'l  regret  it next year is my guess.



    Spend some time watching Ellsbury, and you'll see he still breaks slow on some balls or takes a longer route than necessary to the ball. This after 6+ years in MLB. 

    I'll take JBJ on defense, not even counting the arm differential, right now, but it is a close call.

    Ellsbury's arm is one of the worst I've seen since Damon.

     

    I agree, the Victorino deal was not good. I'd rather have had that money to add on to an Ellsbury offer.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

    Bradley as of now is not a better fielder than Ells .at this point. Spend some time watching Bradley he often breaks the wrong way on balls.  Does a better job on bloops than balls hit over his head.  This may improve once he gets familar with the Major League ballparks  .Why try to spend money over the winter on another foolish contract like Vic's.?   If we don't sign Ells we'l  regret  it next year is my guess.



    Wow talk about critical....I can't remember a time I've ever seen a kid get a break on a ball like Bradley does.  I wonder if your perception is tainted based off of that one play he made the other night in Seattle!? His defense looks mint to me and I've never seen a kids defense been so highly praised since Jose Iglesias.  Ellsbury is much fast than Bradley but Bradley has better range based on his instincts.

    All things considered JBJ should be ready to have the keys handed over to him come 2014. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    I'm a fan of both and have assumed throughout this season that Ellsbury is leaving and Bradley will start in CF next year. 

    That said, I think Bradley, who is a very good outfielder with a terrific arm, has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching.  At the same age and with virtually identical opportunities, Ellsbury had already demonstrated that ability--see 2007.  Ellsbury is much faster on the base paths and in the OF, is beginning to look an awful lot like a .300 or better hitter, leads the Sox in runs scored, is just behind Pedroia in total hits, and is third on the Sox in total bases.  In short, right now the two are about even in fielding--maybe the edge goes to Bradley because of his arm--but Ellsbury has a huge edge on offense, which is why he replaced Coco Crisp in 2008. 

    I still think Ellsbury is gone after this year, but am beginning to think he will leave a hole in the offense. 



    Ted Williams left a  hole  in offense ?So whats your point? Ells can't be replaced? So how do you know Bradley is what you see?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to donrd4's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    I'm a fan of both and have assumed throughout this season that Ellsbury is leaving and Bradley will start in CF next year. 

    That said, I think Bradley, who is a very good outfielder with a terrific arm, has yet to show he can hit MLB pitching.  At the same age and with virtually identical opportunities, Ellsbury had already demonstrated that ability--see 2007.  Ellsbury is much faster on the base paths and in the OF, is beginning to look an awful lot like a .300 or better hitter, leads the Sox in runs scored, is just behind Pedroia in total hits, and is third on the Sox in total bases.  In short, right now the two are about even in fielding--maybe the edge goes to Bradley because of his arm--but Ellsbury has a huge edge on offense, which is why he replaced Coco Crisp in 2008. 

    I still think Ellsbury is gone after this year, but am beginning to think he will leave a hole in the offense. 

     



    Ted Williams left a  hole  in offense ?So whats your point? Ells can't be replaced? So how do you know Bradley is what you see?

     



    It's not so much about replacing the player as much as it is what is the overall product.  So maybe you lose a little offense in CF next year, but maybe you make it up at one of the corners 3B/1B LF/RF?  to me as long as the lineup as a whole is a strong unit that is what really matters.  So what if a guy like Ellsbury walks, the Multimillions that he would cost could be re-allocated elsewhere and JBJ would add value at the league minimum at the position.  The payroll flexibility he would add while still being a productive player can still go a long way in making the lineup as good or better.  So what if Ellsbury > Bradley? because to me it's really all about the end result. 

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Bradley will not be the same offensive player that Jacoby was.  If people are expecting a kid who will batting titles and hit HR's then they will be very dissapointed in what JBJ brings.

    What Bradely is, is a truly elite defensive player at a position that is highly defensive minded.  he likely hit at a decent clip, I see him being a .270-.280 guy who may have some .300 seasons in his prime.  With that AVG I still think his ceiling is a leadoff hitter because he may be that guy who walks a TON.  So his offense will be above average, but barely above average.  Seeing how the typical fan thinks that for a player to be a good batter they have to hit .300 and knock out 30 I think a lot will be dissapointed in his career.

    I think JBJ will also be that guy that brings a lot of intangibles to the table; he will have those 15 pitch at bats that wear down a pitcher, he will be the guy who hussles to get to 3B from 1B and do all those other little things that the box score scouts can't appreciate. 

    Personally.......I like the kinda player JBJ will likely be; but I'm fully aware that some here will truly underappreciate him. 

     



    JBJ will hit more HRs than Ellsbury.  Scouts see him as 10-15 HR guy.  

     


                   Hello! Did you miss the 2011 season when Ellsbury hit 32 home runs? Oh, and by the way he just opened up today's game against the Mariners with a leadoff home run. My prediction for Ellsbury is that he'll hit at least 10 home runs in the second half of this season.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Archer1. Show Archer1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    I think the Sox will make an attempt, albeit a weak one, to retain Ellsbury. They will likely make an offer on 5/75 or thereabouts and he will hit the market and find someone to overpay 7/120.

    Bradley will step in and offer excellent defense and plate discipline while showing an average stick and above average speed (think .275/.365/8HR/65RBI/20STL) at a paltry $400K. I don't expect him to step right into the leadoff spot and to be honest he doesn't have to (hello Daniel Nava), but eventually he will earn his spot there.

    No doubt though, Sox will miss Ellsbury's offense and baserunning.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    Bradley as of now is not a better fielder than Ells .at this point. Spend some time watching Bradley he often breaks the wrong way on balls.  Does a better job on bloops than balls hit over his head.  This may improve once he gets familar with the Major League ballparks  .Why try to spend money over the winter on another foolish contract like Vic's.?   If we don't sign Ells we'l  regret  it next year is my guess.

     



    Spend some time watching Ellsbury, and you'll see he still breaks slow on some balls or takes a longer route than necessary to the ball. This after 6+ years in MLB. 

     

    I'll take JBJ on defense, not even counting the arm differential, right now, but it is a close call.

    Ellsbury's arm is one of the worst I've seen since Damon.

     

    I agree, the Victorino deal was not good. I'd rather have had that money to add on to an Ellsbury offer.



    "Spend some time watching Ellsbury and you'll see he breaks slow on some balls or takes a longer route than necessary to the ball". What utter nonsense! I watch every game and I see him get excellent breaks on the ball and make great running catches. Some of the resident pooh-bahs at this site have long noted that he takes bad routes to the ball and I've always thought that that was a bunch of garbage by people who never played the game. Your intent seems to be to smear the guy when you say "Ellsbury's arm is one of the worst I've seen since Damon". He certainly doesn't have a great arm but it's nowhere as bad as Damon's.

    Maybe Bradley will be an excellent Major League centerfielder one day but Ellsbury already is and I hope that he stays with the Sox for the rest of his career.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    Ricky Henderson walked a TON!! What makes the difference is can you steal. You lose 50 stolen bases is big. With the percentage that Ellsbury does it, and does it on the Major League level.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    It's not so much about replacing the player as much as it is what is the overall product. 

    Yup, I don't really get the whole 'replacement' thing.  Ells is leaving, and by most measures, JBJ will make a fine replacement at minimum wage.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    It's not so much about replacing the player as much as it is what is the overall product. 

    Yup, I don't really get the whole 'replacement' thing.  Ells is leaving, and by most measures, JBJ will make a fine replacement at minimum wage.


                   What about the measure of Major League hitting? What has Bradley done with Boston that has impressed you so much? And you make it sound as if the money is coming out of your pocket. Yeah, let's load up on cheap minimum wage players and see how far that gets us!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

    Bradley as of now is not a better fielder than Ells .at this point. Spend some time watching Bradley he often breaks the wrong way on balls.  Does a better job on bloops than balls hit over his head.  This may improve once he gets familar with the Major League ballparks  .Why try to spend money over the winter on another foolish contract like Vic's.?   If we don't sign Ells we'l  regret  it next year is my guess.

     



    Wow talk about critical....I can't remember a time I've ever seen a kid get a break on a ball like Bradley does.  I wonder if your perception is tainted based off of that one play he made the other night in Seattle!? His defense looks mint to me and I've never seen a kids defense been so highly praised since Jose Iglesias.  Ellsbury is much fast than Bradley but Bradley has better range based on his instincts.

     

    All things considered JBJ should be ready to have the keys handed over to him come 2014. 



    Well stated.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury and Bradley

    In response to trouts' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to darrylfries' comment:

     

     

    Bradley as of now is not a better fielder than Ells .at this point. Spend some time watching Bradley he often breaks the wrong way on balls.  Does a better job on bloops than balls hit over his head.  This may improve once he gets familar with the Major League ballparks  .Why try to spend money over the winter on another foolish contract like Vic's.?   If we don't sign Ells we'l  regret  it next year is my guess.

     

     



    Spend some time watching Ellsbury, and you'll see he still breaks slow on some balls or takes a longer route than necessary to the ball. This after 6+ years in MLB. 

     

     

    I'll take JBJ on defense, not even counting the arm differential, right now, but it is a close call.

    Ellsbury's arm is one of the worst I've seen since Damon.

     

    I agree, the Victorino deal was not good. I'd rather have had that money to add on to an Ellsbury offer.

     



     

    "Spend some time watching Ellsbury and you'll see he breaks slow on some balls or takes a longer route than necessary to the ball". What utter nonsense! I watch every game and I see him get excellent breaks on the ball and make great running catches. Some of the resident pooh-bahs at this site have long noted that he takes bad routes to the ball and I've always thought that that was a bunch of garbage by people who never played the game. Your intent seems to be to smear the guy when you say "Ellsbury's arm is one of the worst I've seen since Damon". He certainly doesn't have a great arm but it's nowhere as bad as Damon's.

    I've played baseball for 20 years of my life. I was once one of Jacoby's biggest supporters and defended him against basher more than anyone else, except boom. 

    I have watched every play of every game since the early 1980s, many times 2 or 3 times on certain plays. I love defense, and have always tried to keep a keen and objective eye on our player's defense. I am not saying I am an expert or know more than you about baseball or CF defense. I did play CF for the last 2-3 years of my baseball career, and then some in softball.

    Jacoby has improved a lot on defense since 2007-2008, particularly his breaks on balls, but in my opinion, he still gets some slow breaks or takes an initial wrong direction on more balls than he should at this stage of his career. From the small sample size I have seen on JBJ, and all the glowing scouting reports I have read, I am of the belief that he is a better CF'er than Jacoby right now, not counting the arm.

    As for the arm, it certainly is close to as bad as Damon's, but I do not think it is worse, that's why I said "since Damon". Out of the 47 MLB CF'ers with 150+ innings in CF, fangraphs rates Jacoby's arm at #45. (He's 24th out of 26 with 400+ innings and last out of all CF'ers with 750+ innings.)

    He's 11th out of 26 in overall UZR/150 in 2013. Since 2009, he is 13th out of the top 43 CF'er in UZR/150. That's very good, but not great. Interestingly, he is 43rd out of 43 in arm since 2009 at -12.7. He is 5th out of 43 in range, which is excellent and  improved over his 2007-2008 numbers when he was 9th out of the top 46 in range (Crisp was #1).

    Maybe Bradley will be an excellent Major League centerfielder one day but Ellsbury already is and I hope that he stays with the Sox for the rest of his career.

    I'd love to have Jacoby for the next 4-5 years too, but not at the cost it will take to make that happen. With JBJ and Victorino able to play CF, the drop off in value is not as bad as the gains we can make in other areas with the money it would take to keep Ellsbury here.




     
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