Ellsbury in July--something new?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Ellsbury in July--something new?

    For starters, it's probably his best month ever.  OPS of 1.177.  7 dingers.  18 rbi's from the leadoff position.  So, if he gets 1 more dinger and two rbi's this month, taking him to 8 dingers and 20 rbi's, that would translate to a season of 48 dingers and 120 rbi's, which would be very unusual for a leadoff guy.  Not that I think he can do that--I'm just trying to interpret the July stats, nothing more. 

    But there's something else.  Since he has been on the Sox, Ellsbury has been known for his speed and for his basestealing.  In fact, early in his MLB career, he commented that basestealing at this level was made a little easier by the great scouting reports on opposing pitchers.  Just 2 years ago he led MLB with 70 and set a Sox record.  Great.    

    So why is it that, at the same time he is hitting great and getting on base a lot, he has attempted just 3 steals--all of them successful--in July?  In fact, he hasn't even tried to steal for 14 consecutive games.  

    Take last night as an example.  Like everyone, Jake wasn't hitting much, but he did get on base twice with a single and later a walk.  The first time, with no steal attempt by Ellsbury, Pedroia bounced into a double play.  The second time, in extra innings, Jake led off with a walk.  He had two shots at stealing, with first Pedroia and then AGon at the plate.  No dice.  Instead, Pedroia flied out for the first out, then AGon hit a hard single that the rightfielder bobbled, which allowed Ellsbury to get to 3B.  If he had stolen second, he could have scored.  

    The above is not intended to cast blame--others were far more culpable for last night's loss (and "culpable" is an unfair term because the Sox can't win every game)--but to point out that, with all the other success in Ellsbury's game, he seems to have lost one dimenstion, being a real threat on the basepaths.  

    The month of July is of course a small statistical sampling, and Ellsbury could, one can only hope, quickly and easily reverse what seems to be a trend.  Or maybe he can't.  He's got 28 steals right now.  Maybe he's close to bagging his limit for this year.  Or maybe he's looking to bag other things besides SB's.   

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    Maybe he's bulked up a little to give him power and it's cost him a step. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]Maybe he's bulked up a little to give him power and it's cost him a step. 
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    One possibility.  He's been caught more times this year than in years past. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : One possibility.  He's been caught more times this year than in years past. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, I think this is the crux of it.  He is gun shy because he's been caught so much.  Kid still needs to learn the art of stealing.  He is surely more at ease with not pushing it since his non-stealing offensive production is through the roof.  But, allow me to prognosticate, I am guessing he still has some meaninful moments on the basepaths this year before all is said and done.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    Spaceman, I sure hope you are right.  I'm a pessimist only because I've been a Sox fan for a very long time. 

    The good news, which we cannot ignore, is that his hitting is through the roof and his fielding ain't half bad.  WAR puts him as the best CF in the game and the fourth best player overall.  Most people, I've learned, hate WAR, but Ellsbury is still having a great year. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Ellsbury in July--something new?:

     "The second time, in extra innings, Jake led off with a walk.  He had two shots at stealing, with first Pedroia and then AGon at the plate.  No dice.  Instead, Pedroia flied out for the first out, then AGon hit a hard single that the rightfielder bobbled, which allowed Ellsbury to get to 3B.  If he had stolen second, he could have scored."  

    Ellsbury on first, 1 out, Agon at bat.  If he steals, first base is open and they intentionally walk Agon to get to Navarro.

    So now you're the manager.  Do you want your best RBI guy at the plate with one out and the fastest guy on the team standing at first from where he can score on a double or long single.

    Or do you want a man on second and first, with one out, and a recently recalled AAA player standing at the plate with 27 at bats this season and a batting average of .185.

    You make the call.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Ellsbury in July--something new? :  "The second time, in extra innings, Jake led off with a walk.  He had two shots at stealing, with first Pedroia and then AGon at the plate.  No dice.  Instead, Pedroia flied out for the first out, then AGon hit a hard single that the rightfielder bobbled, which allowed Ellsbury to get to 3B.  If he had stolen second, he could have scored."   Ellsbury on first, 1 out, Agon at bat.  If he steals, first base is open and they intentionally walk Agon to get to Navarro. So now you're the manager.  Do you want your best RBI guy at the plate with one out and the fastest guy on the team standing at first from where he can score on a double or long single. Or do you want a man on second and first, with one out, and a recently recalled AAA player standing at the plate with 27 at bats this season and a batting average of .185. You make the call.
    Posted by dustcover[/QUOTE]

    Interesting slant. Actually, I would have had him steal on the first pitch to Pedroia, whose at bat you have artfully chose to ignore. 

    As for pitching to AGon vs. Navarro, at that point they both had delivered singles, plus AGon had struck out three times.  Remember, in the actual game, Navarro popped up, but Ortiz still had a shot and grounded out meekly to 2B. 
    Also, since the all-star neither AGon nor Ortiz has hit a dinger. 

    My point, however, remains.  These days Jake ain't interested in stealing any bases. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : Interesting slant. Actually, I would have had him steal on the first pitch to Pedroia, whose at bat you have artfully chose to ignore.  As for pitching to AGon vs. Navarro, at that point they both had delivered singles, plus AGon had struck out three times.  Remember, in the actual game, Navarro popped up, but Ortiz still had a shot and grounded out meekly to 2B.  Also, since the all-star neither AGon nor Ortiz has hit a dinger.  My point, however, remains.  These days Jake ain't interested in stealing any bases. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]
     I agree that I would have had him steal on the 1st pitch to Pedroia. Then I would have had Pedroia bunt him over to 3rd (maybe the ball gets thrown away in the processand everyone is safe!). Finally you get Agon up with Ellsbury on 3rd, probably with one out. The Royals may choose to walk him but then the often-used suicide squeeze play would have carried the day.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? :  I agree that I would have had him steal on the 1st pitch to Pedroia. Then I would have had Pedroia bunt him over to 3rd (maybe the ball gets thrown away in the processand everyone is safe!). Finally you get Agon up with Ellsbury on 3rd, probably with one out. The Royals may choose to walk him but then the often-used suicide squeeze play would have carried the day.
    Posted by trouts[/QUOTE]

    Why give up outs with Pedey bunting?  a. Pedey is on fire, b. you've got a murderer's row behind him.  
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]For starters, it's probably his best month ever.  OPS of 1.177.  7 dingers.  18 rbi's from the leadoff position.  So, if he gets 1 more dinger and two rbi's this month, taking him to 8 dingers and 20 rbi's, that would translate to a season of 48 dingers and 120 rbi's, which would be very unusual for a leadoff guy.  Not that I think he can do that--I'm just trying to interpret the July stats, nothing more.  But there's something else.  Since he has been on the Sox, Ellsbury has been known for his speed and for his basestealing.  In fact, early in his MLB career, he commented that basestealing at this level was made a little easier by the great scouting reports on opposing pitchers.  Just 2 years ago he led MLB with 70 and set a Sox record.  Great.     So why is it that, at the same time he is hitting great and getting on base a lot, he has attempted just 3 steals--all of them successful--in July?  In fact, he hasn't even tried to steal for 14 consecutive games.   Take last night as an example.  Like everyone, Jake wasn't hitting much, but he did get on base twice with a single and later a walk.  The first time, with no steal attempt by Ellsbury, Pedroia bounced into a double play.  The second time, in extra innings, Jake led off with a walk.  He had two shots at stealing, with first Pedroia and then AGon at the plate.  No dice.  Instead, Pedroia flied out for the first out, then AGon hit a hard single that the rightfielder bobbled, which allowed Ellsbury to get to 3B.  If he had stolen second, he could have scored.   The above is not intended to cast blame--others were far more culpable for last night's loss (and "culpable" is an unfair term because the Sox can't win every game)--but to point out that, with all the other success in Ellsbury's game, he seems to have lost one dimenstion, being a real threat on the basepaths.   The month of July is of course a small statistical sampling, and Ellsbury could, one can only hope, quickly and easily reverse what seems to be a trend.  Or maybe he can't.  He's got 28 steals right now.  Maybe he's close to bagging his limit for this year.  Or maybe he's looking to bag other things besides SB's.   
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Jacoby has been noticeably reluctant to steal recently.  This could be partly due to being thrown out 10 times and not having the confidence he once did, or management telling him to take it easy.  It could also be as simple as a pitcher and/or catcher not being as easy to steal on.  Regardless it is interesting and I would never imagine Pede not only having 20 steals at this point but also a better SB percentage than Ells.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    The idea of ripping Ellsbury here, and that's what this thread is, is beyond belief. You guys are simply grasping for straws on Jacoby. He can never win in Boston because he can be an All-Star having a Fred Lynn type season and it's not good enough. Last time I checked he's where in the league leaders in Stolen Bases...Enough said. Idiots.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]The idea of ripping Ellsbury here, and that's what this thread is, is beyond belief. You guys are simply grasping for straws on Jacoby. He can never win in Boston because he can be an All-Star having a Fred Lynn type season and it's not good enough. Last time I checked he's where in the league leaders in Stolen Bases...Enough said. Idiots.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    I agree, Ells has done everything a player could possibly do for our club this season.  Who cares how many SB he ends up with. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : I agree, Ells has done everything a player could possibly do for our club this season.  Who cares how many SB he ends up with. 
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]
     It's not how many steals Ellsbury racks up over the course of a season, it's simply that a critically timed steal, which some of us think might have been the case last night, can sometimes lead directly to a victory. Nobody is really ripping Ellsbury, we are simply surprised that he hasn't attempted many steals of late, especially in last night's game where one run would have won it for us late.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]The idea of ripping Ellsbury here, and that's what this thread is, is beyond belief. You guys are simply grasping for straws on Jacoby. He can never win in Boston because he can be an All-Star having a Fred Lynn type season and it's not good enough. Last time I checked he's where in the league leaders in Stolen Bases...Enough said. Idiots.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Who is ripping Ellsbury?  The facts as stated in the OP are incontrovertible--he is attempting steals a lot less in July despite a very high OPS. 

    Elsewhere in the thread I emphasize that he is having both a great month and a great year.  I even point out that WAR rates him as the best CF in MLB.  I also voted for him for the all-star team.  Did you?

    I think my OP asks a fair question--why has the basestealing dropped off?  I think it's an important dimension of his game and certainly one that Francona has often commented on.  Do I think he will still have a breakout year if he doesn't steal another base?  Absolutely.  In the AL player stats to date, he is like 3d in hits, 3d in runs, in the top 10 in OPS and batting average, in the top five in doubles, etc, etc.  If AGon gets injured, I would be tempted to bat Jake third. 

    But the fact remains:  these days he ain't even trying to steal bases.  Maybe it's the 10 CS's to date.  Maybe he doesn't want to risk an injury.  Maybe he just thinks the hitting--his as well as the rest of the team's--is so great he doesn't need to steal any bases.  And maybe it's just a short term phenomenon that will soon go away and he'll be stealing bases again. 

    And what is this "he can never win in Boston?!!!"  The only guy on this website who consistently attacks Ellsbury is softlaw, and he has zero credibility.  You can see him on this thread under the moniker billyboy.  Sheesh. 

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    The same posters who are stating that Ellsbury should have stealed would also be the first one to blame him or Tito is he was caught stealing. The phenomenom is called 20-20 hindsight. This is a great strategy that posters use but is unavailable to the player or manager. What we want is what you would have done at that moment in the game.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    Billyboy, you are straight out of Shakespeare--full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    Ellsbury is having a great year, period.  No ifs, ands, or buts. 

    As for the Kemp thing, I'm beginning to wonder why the Sox should go after him because right now their lefty-dominant lineup is the best scoring machine in MLB and manages to compensate for a so-so pitching staff so well that the Sox have the second best record in MLB and the best in the AL.  That's right.  No Manny.  No Jason Bay. No Kemp.  No Beltran.   But the best offense in MLB. 

    The Sox are stuck with Crawford, but Reddick, another lefty hitting outfielder, looks like just what the doctor ordered to replace Drew in RF.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    So Max is "ripping Ellsbury here" while simultaneously being a "non-disclosure-Globe shill".....I wonder if Aristotle found Plato's teaching as intellectually stimulating as comments like these?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    Your-echo, I think you have slightly misinterpreted the intent of the OP.  I just wanted to point out that Jake ain't stealing much these days, and I used last night's game as the most immediate evidence that basestealing by Jake is still worthwhile even while he is hitting up a storm.   I could be wrong, but I don't think Ellsbury needs a go ahead signal from Francona to steal a base because he already has a very good track record.  He's probably got a green light unless Francona specifically signals not to attempt a steal. 

    We got beat last night because of good pitching by KC and weak hitting, especially with RISP, by our guys.  It would be silly to blame Ellsbury or Francona. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    He's young, coming into his own, on the right side of his prime and still getting better.....and he's on a hot streak on top of it.  I'm still not convinced he's a 25+ guy, more than I think he has some pop and is hot........But he has the talent, this kid has all the talent in the world...

    Haters be Damned. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : Who is ripping Ellsbury?  The facts as stated in the OP are incontrovertible--he is attempting steals a lot less in July despite a very high OPS.  Elsewhere in the thread I emphasize that he is having both a great month and a great year.  I even point out that WAR rates him as the best CF in MLB.  I also voted for him for the all-star team.  Did you? I think my OP asks a fair question--why has the

    basestealing dropped off?
      I think it's an important dimension of his game and certainly one that Francona has often commented on.  Do I think he will still have a breakout year if he doesn't steal another base?  Absolutely.  In the AL player stats to date, he is like 3d in hits, 3d in runs, in the top 10 in OPS and batting average, in the top five in doubles, etc, etc.  If AGon gets injured, I would be tempted to bat Jake third.  But the fact remains:  these days he ain't even trying to steal bases.  Maybe it's the 10 CS's to date.  Maybe he doesn't want to risk an injury.  Maybe he just thinks the hitting--his as well as the rest of the team's--is so great he doesn't need to steal any bases.  And maybe it's just a short term phenomenon that will soon go away and he'll be stealing bases again.  And what is this "he can never win in Boston?!!!"  The only guy on this website who consistently attacks Ellsbury is softlaw, and he has zero credibility.  You can see him on this thread under the moniker billyboy.  Sheesh. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]


    Simple, Max. Jake has been too busy circling the bases.

                                     Wink
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    Watch it Max in your criticism of Softlaw. There are a few persons here who praise him for being a sacrificial lamb / target which supposedly unifies the forum. I don't subscribe to that theory but Harness does. The thinking is that pretenders, pot-stirrers, contrarians, and devil's advocates make the forum thrive. It is like adding cow manure to your tomato plants in order to make them flourish.
     
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    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]Watch it Max in your criticism of Softlaw. There are a few persons here who praise him for being a sacrificial lamb / target which supposedly unifies the forum. I don't subscribe to that theory but Harness does. The thinking is that pretenders, pot-stirrers, contrarians, and devil's advocates make the forum thrive. It is like adding cow manure to your tomato plants in order to make them flourish.
    Posted by Your-Echo[/QUOTE]

    My old man has used manure every year, and he has won awards for gardening.
    You deploy the same tactic here but reap no fruits.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : Simple, Max . Jake has been too busy circling the bases.                                 
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    There might be something to that. If a higher percentage of his hits are for extra bases, then there are fewer chances to steal. (Of course, I think he is walking more.)

    I also think that the one thing that might have affected him last year is the timing on the SB. Not playing an entire year against live pitching could be showing up with his timing when he wants to steal.
     
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    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : There might be something to that. If a higher percentage of his hits are for extra bases, then there are fewer chances to steal. (Of course, I think he is walking more.) I also think that the one thing that might have affected him last year is the timingon the SB. Not playing an entire year against live pitching could be showing up with his timing when he wants to steal.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    That's possible. I think the game situations also are relevant. Sometimes there's simply no margin for error. In other words, getting thrown out is not an option - and thus an unnecessary risk. Especially when the four hitters behind you who are in elite company.
     

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