Ellsbury in July--something new?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : That's possible. I think the game situations also are relevant. Sometimes there's simply no margin for error. In other words, getting thrown out is not an option - and thus an unnecessary risk. Especially when the four hitters behind you who are in elite company.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Well that's definitely true.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In many situations, I'm sure it's not up to Ellsbury whether or not he steals a base.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    It's possible this trend started in June, not July.  In April he had 5 steals and 3 CS's, which was probably the result of rust.  In May he had 14 steals and 3 CS's--terrific.  But in June, a month in which he had exactly the same number of singles, 26, as in May, he had 6 steals and was caught stealing 4 times.  In July he has attempted steals just 3 times and was safe all three times. 

    So it looks as though several factors have caused the drop off.  One is the bad month in June--6 steals, but caught stealing 4 times.  Another is that his hitting in July has been amazing--and OBP of almost 1.200, 7 dingers, etc.  Third, I think it's possible he just wants to avoid injuries this season because playing every day--so far I think he has missed just 1 game--could make a huge difference for him financially.  It would completely erase last year even though last year was not his fault.  More than that, his season OPS to date is 8th best in the AL.  He is putting up numbers that would make him the #3 hitter on other teams.  WAR, for whatever that's worth, rates him as the best centerfielder in MLB and the fourth best player overall.  Why risk all of that, especially when the Sox are scoring runs in bundles these days thanks to the best first five players in any lineup in MLB?  All of this is of course reinforced by having Scott Boras as his agent.  Ellsbury is having the kind of season that Boras can turn into a gold mine. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    yeah, and this was the guy who most of you on this thread argued that he rightfully should have been moved to LF from CF, regardless of how truly ridiculous that it was considered to have a 38-year-old fossil play CF so that the speedy up-and-comer play LF....As for your thread, maxie, it's a rip of Ellsbury. The only base stealers in the history of baseball who could steal on a consistent basis from Gm 1 to Gm 162 were guys named Brock and Henderson. You can still find long periods for both at times where they didn't steal a base at all. It's really not a "trend." SBs come in bunches. Just like home runs. Guys can have a 13-homer month and follow it with 2 homer month. Should we check the cork in a bat or a urine test to see why the dropoff happen. Baseball is a game of ups, downs, streaks, and consistency in stealing bases is pretty much No. 71 on a list of things that don't matter. Sort of like this thread.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new? : One possibility.  He's been caught more times this year than in years past. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]

    Truth be told.....he is lousy at stealing bases. He doens't get off the bag quickly enough, the leads are too short, and he does a poor job of reading the pitcher's move.
    If he isn't diving back on every pick-off attempt, he is too close to the bag to make a meaningful attempt. I mean, with his speed, he should be off on the first pitch!

    Pedey is much better at stealing a base than Ells.

    I don't know who the "base-running" coach is, but someone needs to work with him to get him back on track.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]yeah, and this was the guy who most of you on this thread argued that he rightfully should have been moved to LF from CF, regardless of how truly ridiculous that it was considered to have a 38-year-old fossil play CF so that the speedy up-and-comer play LF....As for your thread, maxie, it's a rip of Ellsbury. The only base stealers in the history of baseball who could steal on a consistent basis from Gm 1 to Gm 162 were guys named Brock and Henderson. You can still find long periods for both at times where they didn't steal a base at all. It's really not a "trend." SBs come in bunches. Just like home runs. Guys can have a 13-homer month and follow it with 2 homer month. Should we check the cork in a bat or a urine test to see why the dropoff happen. Baseball is a game of ups, downs, streaks, and consistency in stealing bases is pretty much No. 71 on a list of things that don't matter. Sort of like this thread.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    The only guy advocating Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF, other than Softy, was Francona.  This year practically everyone was delighted Ellsbury went back to CF.  FWIW, in 2007 and 2008 Ellsbury showed he was pretty good in LF, RF, and CF. 

    Baseball is absolutely a game of streaks, but basestealing, which can vary a lot from game to game, tends to even out month to month.

    That said, Here's how the top seven basestealers have fared this year, month by month--


    Bourn:  11, 9, 14, 4
    Reyes:  8, 11, 11, 1 (on DL)
    Garder:  4, 6, 9, 12
    Andrus:  8, 7, 9, 6
    Davis:  3 (on DL), 12, 3, 11
    Ellsbury:  5, 14, 6, 3
    Crisp:  8, 8, 8, 3

    I think it is fair to say that Ellsbury is the only one with one terrific month, May, the best month anyone in MLB had this season, and three slow months.  This causes me to think that maybe something has changed. 

    Are you really saying that streaks, basestealing or otherwise, don't matter?  Most people think streaks not only matter but are very much worth talking about.  No one, for example, can forget Ortiz's streaks, good and bad, last year and the year before.  Ditto Pedroia's streaks which have been legendary--right now he is on an incredible one.  And just last month some of us were worried that his knee was holding him back, which was why he had gone cold.  And guess what?  Pedroia was even more worried that we were. When he got the good news that playing wasn't going to make the knee worse, he took off and hasn't come back to earth yet. 


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury in July--something new?:
    [QUOTE]So Max is "ripping Ellsbury here" while simultaneously being a "non-disclosure-Globe shill".....I wonder if Aristotle found Plato's teaching as intellectually stimulating as comments like these?
    Posted by SonicsMonksLyresVicars[/QUOTE]

    Let's face it.  I'm just very versatile--an equal opportunity offender.  Despised by dannycater and billyboy.  All because I thought I saw a drop off in Ellsbury's SB's.   Turns out, he had a great month in May with 14, and the same exact number for the other three months (April, June, and July). 
     

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