Re: Ellsbury is all smiles
posted at 9/28/2013 7:09 PM EDT
In response to S5's comment:
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.
Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.
Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.
Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.
Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.
My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.
We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%.IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.
So now we've resorted to cherry picking to make a point. But, as someone says, we all do it. It just damages the credibility when we get caught at it.
Over his entire career of SIX years he's played in just over 70% of the games he could have played in. (681 over 970 possible games). In EVERY year other than the two when he's had the freak, unpredictable injuries he's played in over 90% of the games he could have played in.
If you assume that a player will "lose" 10% of each season - 16 days - due to regular days off and small injuries he lost an additional 20% of his career, or an average of 3.33% a year, over six years due to those injuries.
My guess is that most GM's - or anyone without an axe to grind - aren't going to be too worried about that.
Or another way to look at: discounting his rookie year in which he played just 33 games Ellsbury has MISSED, on average, 48 games a year (970-681=289/6 seasons is 48 games a year). That is a LOT. On average he plays just 114 games a year. Thats hardly durable enough to warrant a contract that reflects a full time player.