Ellsbury is all smiles

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Ellsbury is all smiles

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.



    if we can get ellsbury to sign at 5/90..i'd be very happy.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.



    We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%. IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.



    The Sox giving him 18/5 would be fine with me. I think thatd be a win/win for both sides.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    Fragility is a joke. He got kneed in the ribs by Beltre running full stride into him. Then Tommy Hunter (6'3 250lbs) plowed into Ells a short time later and broke a couple more ribs. This was all AFTER Ells tried to play after the beltre collision. Thats more tough guy stuff than fragile. Middy tried to play through less than that and was applauded for trying to do so, but Ells is "fragile". Ok.

    Then Reid Brignac (6'3 200lbs) lands on his outstretched arm after sliding into 2nd to break up a DP, partially dislocating it. Depending on the severity of the sublexion (I didnt see his medicals) and the damage to all the tendons, ligaments, etc., you can be out 3-4 months easily.

    Sorry, thats not fragile. Stanton is more fragile than Ellsbury. Guys who always got a hammy, or a knee, or something wrong with him year in and year out, THAT is what I consider fragile.

    Anyway, GM's know this and will make offers accordingly. Pence has set the market before the season has ended. 18M and 5yrs looks like the starting point for OF'ers like Pence and Ellsbury.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    I agree with Pumpsie in that I think ALL contracts should be incentive laden.  Players should get a base salary plus money for numerous metrics, one of which is games played. 

    However, no matter how much some people want for it to happen it's not going to happen.  There're always going to be GM's someplace who will take the chance that a player will drive in 100 runs or hit 40 RH's or play in 90% of the games - something Ells has done in every year other than the two when the freak injuries occurred. 

    You can wish and want what you like but the bottom line is that it's going to take at least 5/$18 to sign him in Boston and that's only if he's willing to take a hometown discount.  And for the record, Softy can "put me down" as saying I'd pay 5/$18 (of JH's money of course!) in a heartbeat.  :-) 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    Just confirms what must of us thought.  Unaffordable.  Peter Abraham says he will get at least $20-21M per year.  

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to S5's comment:

    I agree with Pumpsie in that I think ALL contracts should be incentive laden.  Players should get a base salary plus money for numerous metrics, one of which is games played. 

    However, no matter how much some people want for it to happen it's not going to happen.  There're always going to be GM's someplace who will take the chance that a player will drive in 100 runs or hit 40 RH's or play in 90% of the games - something Ells has done in every year other than the two when the freak injuries occurred. 

    You can wish and want what you like but the bottom line is that it's going to take at least 5/$18 to sign him in Boston and that's only if he's willing to take a hometown discount.  And for the record, Softy can "put me down" as saying I'd pay 5/$18 (of JH's money of course!) in a heartbeat.  :-) 

    Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.




    I think most on this board would agree that all contracts should have a nice base, then earn the rest. Aint gonna happen though, which is why I dont even bring it up unless it calls for it like in the Napoli situation.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    That is a horrible Now Cano and Ellsbury can use this leverage to get over 20 to 25 millions dollars a year!!

    What is the Gaints thinking???

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    That is a horrible Now Cano and Ellsbury can use this leverage to get over 20 to 25 millions dollars a year!!

    What is the Gaints thinking???




    They werent. Pence is a nice player, but 14M range is where I see him.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Fragility is a joke. He got kneed in the ribs by Beltre running full stride into him. Then Tommy Hunter (6'3 250lbs) plowed into Ells a short time later and broke a couple more ribs. This was all AFTER Ells tried to play after the beltre collision. Thats more tough guy stuff than fragile. Middy tried to play through less than that and was applauded for trying to do so, but Ells is "fragile". Ok.

    Then Reid Brignac (6'3 200lbs) lands on his outstretched arm after sliding into 2nd to break up a DP, partially dislocating it. Depending on the severity of the sublexion (I didnt see his medicals) and the damage to all the tendons, ligaments, etc., you can be out 3-4 months easily.

    Sorry, thats not fragile. Stanton is more fragile than Ellsbury. Guys who always got a hammy, or a knee, or something wrong with him year in and year out, THAT is what I consider fragile.

    Anyway, GM's know this and will make offers accordingly. Pence has set the market before the season has ended. 18M and 5yrs looks like the starting point for OF'ers like Pence and Ellsbury.



    The bottom line is that we are talking about a player who, for whatever reason, plays just over 50% of the time. I certainly would not call Ellsbury "durable"; he is the opposite of that, whatever word you want to use. I use fragile and I am sticking with that description. His injuries are real, no doubt, and I am not faulting him for sitting out when he is injured. At contract time his "sick days' are considered. This is that time. I would not offer Ellsbury more than 4x$14.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    Southpaw your one of my favorite Posters.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Southpaw your one of my favorite Posters.




    Thank You CWOTB.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.

     



    We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%. IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.


    So now we've resorted to cherry picking to make a point.  But, as someone says, we all do it. It just damages the credibility when we get caught at it.

    Over his entire career of SIX years he's played in just over 70% of the games he could have played in. (681 over 970 possible games).  In EVERY year other than the two when he's had the freak, unpredictable injuries he's played in over 90% of the games he could have played in.  

    If you assume that a player will "lose" 10% of each season - 16 days - due to regular days off and small injuries he lost an additional 20% of his career, or an average of 3.33% a year, over six years due to those injuries.

    My guess is that most GM's - or anyone without an axe to grind - aren't going to be too worried about that.     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    That is a horrible Now Cano and Ellsbury can use this leverage to get over 20 to 25 millions dollars a year!!

    What is the Gaints thinking???



    I think the Carl Crawford deal is the bench mark Boras will use...End of the day Ells will get paid if there's more than one team involved he could exceed Crawford Moneys...IMHO Pence's deal doesn't impact Cano at all he'll get something north of 25M and could approach 30M Cano given his age and expected production in the next 5 years might be the best free agent bat to hit the market since Bonds. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.

     

     



    We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%.IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.

     


    So now we've resorted to cherry picking to make a point.  But, as someone says, we all do it. It just damages the credibility when we get caught at it.

     

    Over his entire career of SIX years he's played in just over 70% of the games he could have played in. (681 over 970 possible games).  In EVERY year other than the two when he's had the freak, unpredictable injuries he's played in over 90% of the games he could have played in.  

    If you assume that a player will "lose" 10% of each season - 16 days - due to regular days off and small injuries he lost an additional 20% of his career, or an average of 3.33% a year, over six years due to those injuries.

    My guess is that most GM's - or anyone without an axe to grind - aren't going to be too worried about that.     



    Or another way to look at: discounting his rookie year in which he played just 33 games Ellsbury has MISSED, on average, 48 games a year (970-681=289/6 seasons is 48 games a year). That is a LOT. On average he plays just 114 games a year. Thats hardly durable enough to warrant a contract that reflects a full time player.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to S5's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.

     

     



    We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%.IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.

     


    So now we've resorted to cherry picking to make a point.  But, as someone says, we all do it. It just damages the credibility when we get caught at it.

     

    Over his entire career of SIX years he's played in just over 70% of the games he could have played in. (681 over 970 possible games).  In EVERY year other than the two when he's had the freak, unpredictable injuries he's played in over 90% of the games he could have played in.  

    If you assume that a player will "lose" 10% of each season - 16 days - due to regular days off and small injuries he lost an additional 20% of his career, or an average of 3.33% a year, over six years due to those injuries.

    My guess is that most GM's - or anyone without an axe to grind - aren't going to be too worried about that.     

     



    Or another way to look at: discounting his rookie year in which he played just 33 games Ellsbury has MISSED, on average, 48 games a year (970-681=289/6 seasons is 48 games a year). That is a LOT. On average he plays just 114 games a year. Thats hardly durable enough to warrant a contract that reflects a full time player.

     



    What he gets isn't going to be based on what anyone on this board says. In the world of baseball Ellsbury is a commodity, nothing more, nothing less.  And as with any commodity it's "worth" is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller in an arm's length transaction. 

    IMO his "worth" is going to be a lot closer to my 5/$18 than it is someone else's 5/$14 and the current market will prove that true.  I want him on the team in 2014 and those who are talking about 5/$14 don't want him unless they can buy him for less than he's worth.  Since that's not going to happen I'd be happy to see the Sox sign him for 5/$18.

     

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    Hi South, 

    Did Pumsie write something !! Did a tree fall in the forest, but no one was around to hear it, so did it actually fall. 

    As for Ells, South you are pointing out the same thing that I argue when people like Softy and Pumpsie say Ells is fragile, injury prone, etc. There is a huge difference between being unfortunate which Ells has been and injury prone and it's unfortunate that some can't figure out the difference. Ells will no doubt command at least 18mil for 4-5 years. And most if not all GMs are smart enough to realize that Ells has never been either injury prone or fragile.

     

    Cheers, Hetch   

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    Softy, he's making a little north of $10 now through Arb.---QO is $14--$16 may be a starting point--the bidding will quickly hit $20 between the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Philly and another team that will have plenty to spend the Mariners along with a stash of solid young pitching  and some young talented position players.

    These owners are amazing and Boras knows how to get them into a feeding frenzy.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: Ellsbury is all smiles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    Since finding out the Giants signed Pence to 5yrs at an annual rate of 18M.

    Both compare pretty good, but with different strngths.

    Ellsbury is a much better defender at a premium position. Has a higher WAR than Pence by 1.5. Obviously faster, though pence can steal 20 bags. Ells has the better BA and OBP.

    Pence plays 160 games a year. Ells has had 2 oddball collisions that kept him out. I refuse to call that injury prone. Regardless, Pence has proven he can stay healthy.

    Both are 30yo (4 months apart), both have successful postseason experience.

    My guess is Ellsbury will make no less than 18M and 5yrs because of Pence's new deal.

     



    We'll see. The last time I calculated how many games Ellsbury had played of the total number of games he could have played over the last four years it was just over 50%. IF he could stay healthy then he deserves a contract similar to what Pence got. GMs know his propensity to get injured; they are not ALL dumb. A fair contract for Ellsbury would be 4 years at $14M per year with a team option for a fifth year and incentives based on playing time that would bring his total to near $18M. More than that would be unwise. Ellsbury must take the risk of injury which in part is based on his playing style and fragility.

     



    PG is correct...but a better solution would be to wait and see what happens next  October and give Brad jr two hard months of winter ball...there is a lot of " small sample size" arguments in these boards.  Brad could be a case in point... We boast about our farm but somehow we seem to be afraid to use it... 

     
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