Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Red Sox viewing OF Chris Young as fallback

    ESPN's Jerry Crasnick hears that the Red Sox are viewing free agent Chris Young as a fallback option.

    The Red Sox want to re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury, but the free agent center fielder is likely to command one of the richest contracts on the open market this winter and could ultimately be priced out of Boston's range. Young, 30, batted .200/.280/.379 with 12 home runs and 40 RBI in 107 games this year for Oakland. He'd be capable of better numbers in a more hitter-friendly home park
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    JBJ is the real replacement...Young would be insurance.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sportswizard1. Show Sportswizard1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    If the Sox are buying insurance for JBJ, then they should look to Rajai Davis at least he isn't a total bust at the plate and his defense is equal to Ellsbury's. I'm just guessing a lifetime .231 hitter isn't replacing anyone! The bat boy maybe...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to Sportswizard1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If the Sox are buying insurance for JBJ, then they should look to Rajai Davis at least he isn't a total bust at the plate and his defense is equal to Ellsbury's.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree.......would replace SB hit we would take if Ellsbury moves.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Rajai Davis is certainly an interesting name too.

     
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    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    This is ecxactly the signing I like, this is what we did last year. No Picks, see if he can turn it around again. 144 career HRS, 30 years old, short contract. Take a chance.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Young would not replace Ells, JBJ would replace Ells and Young would be the utility outfielder would would be insurance in case Victorino or JBJ get injured or are underperforming.  He had a down year last year and had some good pop in Arizona.  He is a better hitter than his numbers with the A's showed and he gets on base at a good clip with 20 HR power.  I think he is an excellent 5th outfielder.  I posted this in another Ellsbury thread, but thought it was worth reposting here as well since we are analyzing why the Sox need to have some insurance in case JBJ can't perform in the show.

    I love JBJ, but we must be realistic and temper our expectations of the kid.

    2012 AA--229 AB-- 271 Avg, 6 HR, 373 OBP, 437 SLG, 809 OPS, 8 SB, 3 CS

    2013 AAA--320 AB-- 275 Avg, 10 HR, 374 OBP, 469 SLG, 842 OPS, 7 SB, 7 CS

    2013 MLB--95 AB-- 189 Avg, 3 HR, 280 OBP, 337 SLG, 617 OPS, 2 SB, 0 CS

     

    Ells career averages

    2912 AB, 65 HR, 297 Avg, 350 OBP, 439 SLG, 789 OPS, 241 SB, 46 CS

     

    Those numbers for Ells might be a little pulled up because of that one freak year he had when he was in the running for league MVP (cough cough enhanced season)... he has never hit more than 10 homers in a season before or after, his slugging never exceedeed his career average of 439 except his rookie year... that's how much of a difference the power season of Ells had on his career numbers.  That said, there is enough of a sample size to see that Ells had better career numbers in the majors than Jackie did in the minors. 

    We can expect a large drop off of production on the base paths as Bradley is a smart base runner like Pedroia as he has good instincts and gets good jumps, but isn't a true base stealing threat.  Ells has game changing speed and a solid career average.  The top side of what we can expect from JBJ in terms of average will be less than the career average for Ells.  That said, JBJ appears to have a better eye and will walk more than Ells with slightly equal to slightly more power (except for Ellsbury's juiced up season).   The freakish 9.1 WAR in Ells enhanced season makes up for the injury seasons and his average WAR is 3.95 per season... or 4 to be modest and is projected to have a 4.2 WAR next year.

    JBJ is projected to have a 252 Avg, 334 OBP, 399 SLG and 0.3 WAR next season (partially due to them only projecting him to get 133 at bats, but that number goes up to about 1.2-1.8 with a full season).  That is a 4 win drop off from what Ells gave us this year.  It is basically in line with what Nava gave us this season.

    So in a nutshell, what people should expect from JBJ is Daniel Nava with better defense... not Ells.  Now that makes for a solid major league player, especially since Bradley has elite defense and a great arm... but people should not expect JBJ to be a player he is not.  He is what he is and his ceiling isn't as high as other prospects but his floor isn't as low either.  He is going to come as a quasi finished product and won't probably improve too too much besides adding a bit of power over time and possibly improve K rates and BB rates.  This will be the equivallent of going from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp... both very good players, but a very clear step down.

     
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    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    If Naps and Salty resign, and jake and drew walk, then the Sox need to swing for the fences on an outfielder, either through FA(choo, beltran) or through trade(stanton as an example).  Jake is too big a part of the offense to not replace, and no JBJ does not count until he has done it for a year or more in the regular season.

     

    I would be OK with either option, but not the internal replacement option.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Red sox just have to send out interests to as many players as they can.  Then Ben C have to play around with the system and fill in the best 9 regulars for the next season.

    But I doubt that Ben will get him!!  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from NLU75. Show NLU75's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Young would not replace Ells, JBJ would replace Ells and Young would be the utility outfielder would would be insurance in case Victorino or JBJ get injured or are underperforming.  He had a down year last year and had some good pop in Arizona.  He is a better hitter than his numbers with the A's showed and he gets on base at a good clip with 20 HR power.  I think he is an excellent 5th outfielder.  I posted this in another Ellsbury thread, but thought it was worth reposting here as well since we are analyzing why the Sox need to have some insurance in case JBJ can't perform in the show.

    I love JBJ, but we must be realistic and temper our expectations of the kid.

    2012 AA--229 AB-- 271 Avg, 6 HR, 373 OBP, 437 SLG, 809 OPS, 8 SB, 3 CS

    2013 AAA--320 AB-- 275 Avg, 10 HR, 374 OBP, 469 SLG, 842 OPS, 7 SB, 7 CS

    2013 MLB--95 AB-- 189 Avg, 3 HR, 280 OBP, 337 SLG, 617 OPS, 2 SB, 0 CS

     

    Ells career averages

    2912 AB, 65 HR, 297 Avg, 350 OBP, 439 SLG, 789 OPS, 241 SB, 46 CS

     

    Those numbers for Ells might be a little pulled up because of that one freak year he had when he was in the running for league MVP (cough cough enhanced season)... he has never hit more than 10 homers in a season before or after, his slugging never exceedeed his career average of 439 except his rookie year... that's how much of a difference the power season of Ells had on his career numbers.  That said, there is enough of a sample size to see that Ells had better career numbers in the majors than Jackie did in the minors. 

    We can expect a large drop off of production on the base paths as Bradley is a smart base runner like Pedroia as he has good instincts and gets good jumps, but isn't a true base stealing threat.  Ells has game changing speed and a solid career average.  The top side of what we can expect from JBJ in terms of average will be less than the career average for Ells.  That said, JBJ appears to have a better eye and will walk more than Ells with slightly equal to slightly more power (except for Ellsbury's juiced up season).   The freakish 9.1 WAR in Ells enhanced season makes up for the injury seasons and his average WAR is 3.95 per season... or 4 to be modest and is projected to have a 4.2 WAR next year.

    JBJ is projected to have a 252 Avg, 334 OBP, 399 SLG and 0.3 WAR next season (partially due to them only projecting him to get 133 at bats, but that number goes up to about 1.2-1.8 with a full season).  That is a 4 win drop off from what Ells gave us this year.  It is basically in line with what Nava gave us this season.

    So in a nutshell, what people should expect from JBJ is Daniel Nava with better defense... not Ells.  Now that makes for a solid major league player, especially since Bradley has elite defense and a great arm... but people should not expect JBJ to be a player he is not.  He is what he is and his ceiling isn't as high as other prospects but his floor isn't as low either.  He is going to come as a quasi finished product and won't probably improve too too much besides adding a bit of power over time and possibly improve K rates and BB rates.  This will be the equivallent of going from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp... both very good players, but a very clear step down.

    [/QUOTE] better on base paths & probably a better arm


     
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    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    If the Red Sox don't resign Ellsbury they are fools. 
    I don't believe there is one team out there willing to pay an outrageous price for Ellsbury. The only thing which would put me off would be a deal of longer than five years. 

    If the Cubs are looking to spend ridiculous money they would be far better off spending it on Cano. Cano is younger and has far more power. 

    The Red Sox have a need for Ellsbury. His loss would be huge. 

    Going into this season I was high on Bradley. Unfortunately he looked badly overmatched. It isn't that he didn't hit. He did not even put together good at-bats. I saw him as hitting around  .300 but also torturing pitchers by fouling off many pitches and drawing lots of walks. That didn't happen. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    They're looking at a guy who hit .200 to replace Ellsbury? 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to patrickford's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If the Red Sox don't resign Ellsbury they are fools. 
    I don't believe there is one team out there willing to pay an outrageous price for Ellsbury. The only thing which would put me off would be a deal of longer than five years. 

    If the Cubs are looking to spend ridiculous money they would be far better off spending it on Cano. Cano is younger and has far more power. 

    The Red Sox have a need for Ellsbury. His loss would be huge. 

    Going into this season I was high on Bradley. Unfortunately he looked badly overmatched. It isn't that he didn't hit. He did not even put together good at-bats. I saw him as hitting around  .300 but also torturing pitchers by fouling off many pitches and drawing lots of walks. That didn't happen. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Pedroia is a good example of a player the Sox stuck with over time, but started off so terrible.  People wanted Pedroia's head after his first half season of baseball.  Temper the negative, but we also have to be realistic that JBJ is no Ellsbury. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to patrickford's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They're looking at a guy who hit .200 to replace Ellsbury? 

    [/QUOTE]


    No they are looking at a guy who hit 200 to play the Gabe Kapler role

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from MustangBri. Show MustangBri's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to patrickford's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If the Red Sox don't resign Ellsbury they are fools. 
    I don't believe there is one team out there willing to pay an outrageous price for Ellsbury. The only thing which would put me off would be a deal of longer than five years. 

    If the Cubs are looking to spend ridiculous money they would be far better off spending it on Cano. Cano is younger and has far more power. 

    The Red Sox have a need for Ellsbury. His loss would be huge. 

    Going into this season I was high on Bradley. Unfortunately he looked badly overmatched. It isn't that he didn't hit. He did not even put together good at-bats. I saw him as hitting around  .300 but also torturing pitchers by fouling off many pitches and drawing lots of walks. That didn't happen. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Ellsbury is 1 year younger than Cano. 

    Ells is looking at 130-160 mill....  Cano wants 10/300 mill.  One plays probably the most valuable field position(CF),  the other plays the least valuable position(2B).  Who is the better value?

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sportswizard1. Show Sportswizard1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    If they are looking for a caddy for JBJ they need to look for someone who can bat leadoff and actually hit the ball, please no more insults to the fans like we are looking at Chris Young! My god I'm not even close to being an executive in baseball and I know that CY isn't someone I'm counting on. If you want too just stay in house you have Victorino just move Nava over to RF. Find another corner outfielder like a Beltran or hope opne ofg the youngsters is ready to make the club Brentz, Kalish, Linares, or any of the umptein other OF's in the system.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Rajai Davis, from CT. might be the kind of guy we could use. He has comparable speed to Ells. He worries pitchers from the "on deck" circle. He can run down almost anything in the park. He is probably less expensive than Young. Give Brentz another year to show some long ball ability @ AAA.

    Beltran would be my first target---playing in LF. JBJ in CF and Vic in RF.

    I would keep Doubie over Peavy. Trade Peavy to the Dodgers for Tim Fedorwitz(c) and a couple of prospects. We let Fed go a couple of years ago, I think, with Stephen Fife.

     

     
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    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    Franklin Gutierrez?  Still relatively younger OF FA with some pop, speed, and glove.  

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one

    In response to eltiante1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If they are looking for a caddy for JBJ they need to look for someone who can bat leadoff and actually hit the ball

    Since JBJ's minor league OPS is higher than Ellsbury's minor league OPS, JBJ, once seasoned in the majors, will be perfectly capable of getting on base .350 or better. 

    I've noted that you have stated "Bradley can't hit the baseball" and "can't leadoff".

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont take too much stock, as you are softy, in MiL stats. Yes, its a good guage, but it can be a far cry from what can happen in MLB. JBJ looked way overmatched in MLB.

    With that said, if the fanbase can have some patience I can see JBJ turning into a .280BA .360OBP and a low 400's SLG. Hes NOT a base stealer. He will get caught as much as he is safe. about 50% success rate. He will bat at the bottom of the order to start so the pressure to perform as a leadoff hitter is not there. He can relax and develop into his game. After some time and hopefully he can make the adjustments he wasnt able to this year, they can move him up in the order. Hes also going to have a learning curve playing the odd demensions in Fenways CF.

    All in all I believe JBJ will be a good MLB CF'er. Expect some growing pains in 2014 though.

     
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