Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    dannycater, good thoughts on those three.  I don't see Ellsbury getting $150M, but also don't see him staying, not after what has happened.  Ortiz could walk, but I think he likes it in Boston, and he is, after all, a 35 year old DH.  I hope you are right about Papelbon.  Bard makes it tempting to let him go, but, really, it's better to have both of them.  All comes down to $$. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    max, it's all about CC's 142 mil, the bar was set and was set low. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    There is a good portion of fans on this forum who think salary should not be tied into how you feel about players and how you critique them. I say, it's a major factor and it affects not only the player who receives a high salary, it affects the team's approach to other players, and how players feel about themselves in comparison salary wise. All of it is relative to the salary of a player. You simply will see very little criticism of a minimum salary player because the guy doesn't have to do much to earn his money. The expectations are not there, and it's only gravy if a guy with a small contract performs up and beyond.
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    Media treatment is often based solely on one's giant salary. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    I think Sox fans are a little spoiled by Pedroia and Youkilis, both of whom signed for very good salaries, but less than they are worth.  And both hustle on every single play, always run out ground balls, etc.  In 2008 they were first and third in voting for the AL MVP.  Between them they are paid a lot less than Crawford by himself. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    max, excellent point. and let's face it, the more the Sox hand out cartwheels of cash to questionable free agents--Lackey, Crawford, Drew, Dice-K (although the issue with him was paying money just for the privilege of signing him), Lugo, Renteria to name the most prominent, the more it means they are telling their other players that this is what we think they are worth. So the current Sox players will then say to themselves, well if he makes that kind of money, I deserve....I deserve...it's a business, and the Sox want to win, but the Sox put themselves in a situation where their highest paid players frequently aren't even among their 15 most valuable commodities.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    danny, as you know, I was totally against the Crawford signing even before it happened. Afterwards, I said it would "cripple us for years to come", and that we "overpaid him by at least $50M, even if he puts up his career average numbers for 6-7 years". I am not gloating after his poor start. I never envisioned a tough start. I still think Crawford will rebound and play well for us. However, the fact remains, I agree with you that his signing will severely rstrict future moves (extensions, FAs, etc...).

    I do think this might be a little rash:

    "Something tells me the Sox better win this year because it's quite possible they will lose Papelbon, Ellsbury and Ortiz. And that's a lot of talent to lose on the free agent market."

    I started a thread about the 2012 payroll and budget. My numbers may not be 100% accurate, but by losing Drew and maybe Scutaro, we should still be able to give arb driven raises to Jacoby, Bard, Salty and others and keep Papelbon and Papi. I think we may lose one, but not both, unless Theo chooses to take the comp picks and spend the money elsewhere by replacing them of upgrading SS, SP and/or RF.

    It would be a shame to lose Ellsbury when his arb runs out, and certainly Crawford's deal would be a large factor in him walking. It's a pretty safe bet that Bora$$ will take Jacoby to free agency and seek the top dollar. Jacoby migh also not be too thrilled with Sox management, media and fans. That's hard to gauge.

    As for signing big ticket FAs, I think sometimes people miss the hidden value: to fill a team need, a trade means giving away potential future stars and drafting and developing your own players cost a lot of maoney as well, when you total the whole cost of scouts, minor league expenses, and the few years of salary before a prospect makes it big.

    Since it takes years for a FA signing to be judged correctly,let's go back to 2006's top signees:

    A. Soriano $136M/8
    B. Zito        $126M/7
    Carlos Lee $100M/7
    A. Ramirez  $75M/5
    JD Drew      $70M/5
    G. Meche    $55M/5 
    Dice-K         $52M/6 (+ posting fee)
    J. Schmidt  $47M/3
    Suppan       $42M/4
    T. Lilly         $40M/4
    J. Lugo        $36M/4
    Pettitte         $16M/1
    Edmonds     $19M/2

    How about 2007?
    ARod     $275M/10
    Hunter     $90M/5
    Rowand   $60M/5
    Posada    $52M/4
    C. Silva   $48M/4
    Cordero   $46M/4
    Mo Riv     $45M/3
    Lowell     $37.5M/3
    A. Jones  $36M/2
    J. Guillen $36M/3
    Pettitte     $16M/1

    How about 2008?    
    Teix       $180M/8
    Sab        $161M/7
    AJ Bur    $82.5M/5
    DeLowe  $60M/4
    Dempst   $52M/4
    Manny    $45M/2
    FRod      $37M/3
    O. Perez $36M/3 
    Furcal    $30M/3
    Bradley  $30M/3
    A. Dunn  $20M/2

    How about 2009?
    M. Holliday  $120M/7
    Lackey        $82.5M/5
    Ja. Bay        $66M/4
    Figgins        $36M/4
    Chapman     $30M/6
    R. Wolf         $30M/3
    Polanco       $18M/3
    Pineiro         $16M/2
    Cameron     $15.5/2
    Scutaro       $12.5M/2
    M. Gonzo    $12M/2
    Pettitte        $12M/1
    Beltre          $10M/1

    How about 2010?
    Crawford    $142M/7
    Werth         $126M/7
    C.Lee         $120M/5
    Beltre          $96M/6
    Dunn           $56M/4
    Jeter           $51M/3
    VMart          $50M/4
    Konerko      $38M/3
    R. Soriano  $35M/3
    Mo Riv        $30M/2
    A. Huff        $22M/2
    De La Rosa $22M/3
    Uribe          $21M/3
    Buck           $18M/3
    Pavano, Westbrook $16.5M/2
    Benoit        $16.5M/3 

    These lists are full of complete "busts", some partially helpful players, a few significantly helpful players, and just a few very helpful player. Even the helpful players seem to be very overpaid, but here's my point:

    There aren't many easy ways to fill a big need in the winter. Trades often create holes elsewhere or mortgage the future and sometimes the salary of the player picked up is high as well. Relying on prospects is a risky gamble. I guess the bottom line is that sometimes GMs are willing to "overpay" in hopes of getting a FA that has an extended prime or that their decline is slow and minimal. 

    The Crawford deal was way too much in my eyes, but at least his age promised a few more prime years than normal. Lackey's signing was also an "overpay", but it is very hard to get an opportunity to get a good pitcher without giving up prospects or stars. I thought he'd do better than he has so far, but look at other "top" starting pitchers on this list, like Zito, Scmidt, Suppan, Meche, Dice-K, Silva, Burnett, Lowe, and O.Perez. Only CC has produced well in a multiyear deal. 
     . 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    When so many people bitched about Nomar asking for too much money back in the day, I think Nomar had a major point (and this is before his performance started to nosedive and no one could have accurately predicted the nosedive would be as fast as it happened). You look at the market, and you ask for the money and you don't have settle for the team's discounted rate, whether we as fans agree or not agree what is a fair contract. Why shouldn't have Nomar asked for the moon from the Sox. Hell, he gave them sweat, blood, and tears and some very high productive seasons, I think he was more than in the right. When things didn't go his way, you can see how quickly the PR machine turned against him. It was like he became public enemy No. 1 by the time he was traded. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year:
    [QUOTE]max, excellent point. and let's face it, the more the Sox hand out cartwheels of cash to questionable free agents--Lackey, Crawford, Drew, Dice-K (although the issue with him was paying money just for the privilege of signing him), Lugo, Renteria to name the most prominent, the more it means they are telling their other players that this is what we think they are worth. So the current Sox players will then say to themselves, well if he makes that kind of money, I deserve....I deserve...it's a business, and the Sox want to win, but the Sox put themselves in a situation where their highest paid players frequently aren't even among their 15 most valuable commodities.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    I agree, danny, but you know, when they sign these guys, the players always say they love how Theo has a drive to win and how much they look forward to having these "great players" onboard. The fact that none have been "great" has been frustrating. The real issue has always been: what were the alternatives? In hindsight, it's easy to pick and choose some lesser paid FAs that would have done better, or maybe to invest more in scouting and signing international players, but the above lists show how hard it is to strike gold with Free Agency. 

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    moon, you bring up excellent points about that all free agency has been kind of a bust for teams---which brings me back to the Sox. If they knew this info, and they probably did a lot of research, and even by their own recent experience, you'd think they would think twice before handing out 142 mil to Crawford. It's funny, the guy who has the money, but I think follows this philosophy of not handing out the money is Moreno of the Angels. And yet it always seems like his teams find a way to make it in the playoffs or compete for a division title--albeit in a very weak division. The fans wanted him to grab Crawford, and I think Regans the GM wanted him badly, and Moreno said...hell no, not for that asking price. We'll concentrate on the youth and the pitching. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    If the idea is to appease the Sox Nation by grabbing every big name free agent in a given year, then that's a mistake too on the Sox FO part. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    totally agree with that moon. the free agent market in itself has become a vast wasteland of money wasted on guys who were either truly overrated or just couldn't handle the pressure of performing to the contract--or Barry Zito Disease.
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    I think Adrian Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay are examples of the few and the far between of guys who really are worth throwing a brinks truck at. Drew, Lackey, Crawford are guys you want to drive the brinks truck OVER. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    I saw moonslav's 2012 salary discussion on another thread and basically agreed:  keep the outfield as is (keep Ellsbury in particular); keep the infield as is but probably without Scutaro; keep Ortiz (at a reasonable price); probably lose Papelbon.  I would not mind keeping Scutaro, but he is getting older. 

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    I think closers, true reliable closers over the course of time, are hard to come by. Bard has a future maybe, and maybe not. I just don't want the Sox to let Papelbon leave so that Josh can stick it in the Sox faces for years to come. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year:
    [QUOTE]When so many people bitched about Nomar asking for too much money back in the day, I think Nomar had a major point (and this is before his performance started to nosedive and no one could have accurately predicted the nosedive would be as fast as it happened). You look at the market, and you ask for the money and you don't have settle for the team's discounted rate, whether we as fans agree or not agree what is a fair contract. Why shouldn't have Nomar asked for the moon from the Sox. Hell, he gave them sweat, blood, and tears and some very high productive seasons, I think he was more than in the right. When things didn't go his way, you can see how quickly the PR machine turned against him. It was like he became public enemy No. 1 by the time he was traded. 
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    There were rumors that Nomar had hurt himself outside of baseball and pretended to hurt himself in ST. The Sox did not challenge his contract. Nomar was hurt his last year, and I think Theo knew his fielding had gone from adequate at best to poor. I don't think Theo's loss in confidence caused Nomar's decline in any way. I think Theo saw it coming and got rid of him just in time. This is Theo's MO. It is a business to him. Pedro, Damon, JBay... I think the only guys he has paid a lot to keep, out of some sense of loyalty are Schilling ($8M that last year) and Lowell (a year too long).

    I don't blame Nomat for asking for the moon, but he was offered a great deal and turned it down. Theo has a way of setting a price and not budging. I am glad he didn't in Nomar's case.

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    Nomar was nuts to turn that contract down, but it probably saved the Sox and led to ending the 86 year drought.  Who would have thunk?  Garciaparra still had a pretty good bat. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year : There were rumors that Nomar had hurt himself outside of baseball and pretended to hurt himself in ST. The Sox did not challenge his contract. Nomar was hurt his last year, and I think Theo knew his fielding had gone from adequate at best to poor. I don't think Theo's loss in confidence caused Nomar's decline in any way. I think Theo saw it coming and got rid of him just in time. This is Theo's MO. It is a business to him. Pedro, Damon, JBay... I think the only guys he has paid a lot to keep, out of some sense of loyalty are Schilling ($8M that last year) and Lowell (a year too long). I don't blame Nomat for asking for the moon, but he was offered a great deal and turned it down. Theo has a way of setting a price and not budging. I am glad he didn't in Nomar's case.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Nomar's injuries were related to steroids. His famous SI cover photo was an all-time testament to roids. He had the "split tendon" in his wrist injury and if I recall the doctors were saying what a freak injury it was. Well, a lot of steroid guys who got hurt had "freak injuries" and that's because the body structure was altered in a chemical way. Nomar used, but I will defend the guy for his ability to do better what Youk, Pedroia do now---Hustle and play the game the right way (more so for Dusty, because I think Youks has some temper issues).

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    yes, it's a contradiction, but Nomar never ever didn't run out a ball or didn't appreciate the fans who then cursed his very existence on the way out. I still think one of the greatest player to fan moments was after a playoff-season ending loss, Nomar came out of the dugout and started applauding to the fans at Fenway for their support of the Sox...that was extreme class.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    moon, you bring up excellent points about that all free agency has been kind of a bust for teams---which brings me back to the Sox. If they knew this info, and they probably did a lot of research, and even by their own recent experience, you'd think they would think twice before handing out 142 mil to Crawford. It's funny, the guy who has the money, but I think follows this philosophy of not handing out the money is Moreno of the Angels. And yet it always seems like his teams find a way to make it in the playoffs or compete for a division title--albeit in a very weak division. The fans wanted him to grab Crawford, and I think Regans the GM wanted him badly, and Moreno said...hell no, not for that asking price. We'll concentrate on the youth and
     the pitching

    danny, it is also about selling tickets and viewership numbers on TV. Theo has to keep the fans excited. I think Theo did a lot of homework on Crawford. I think Lackey was a hurry job. He and many of us were surprised he didn't get offered. $100M/6.  The last thing I want to do is defend the CC contract. Like I said, he was overpaid by about $50M and may turn out to be even worse than that. However, let's assume Crawford puts up his career average numbers over the course of the deal:.
    .295/.335/.440/.775 (Better from 2012-2013 and worse the last 2 years). How much is a player like that worth (with Good speed and fielding)? Maybe $90M/7? $70M/7? Less?
    So, let's say he is overpaid by $50-70M at most. I think you have to adjust that number by what the cost would have been to trade for a guy like Crawford, or to hope and pray that one out of a few hundred prospects truns out as good as the above numbers. Maybe the cost of a trade or hundreds of prospects development costs would be $20-40M. If you apply that to the amount CC is overpaid, it lessens the overall shock of his contract. That is all I am saying.

    If the idea is to appease the Sox Nation by grabbing every big name free agent in a given.

    The Yanks grabbed the top 3 in 2008. I think that might have had something to do with it. In hindsight, signing Holliday would have been better than CC. Signing Berkman to play LF for this year would have been genius...
    ..
    totally agree with that moon. the free agent market in itself has become a vast wasteland of money wasted on guys who were either truly overrated or just couldn't handle the pressure of performing to the contract--or Barry Zito Disease.

    I think it is more about FAs are usually past prime when they sign. At least Crawford was younger than most..

    .I think Adrian Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay are examples of the few and the far between of guys who really are worth throwing a brinks truck at. Drew, Lackey, Crawford are guys you want to drive the brinks truck OVER.

    I agree, but I really think it is hard to project player's 5-7 year futures at ages 29-31. Theo has not had good track record in this regard, but I think signing a few big FAs was inevidable in the Boston situation.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year:
    [QUOTE]moon, you bring up excellent points about that all free agency has been kind of a bust for teams---which brings me back to the Sox. If they knew this info, and they probably did a lot of research, and even by their own recent experience, you'd think they would think twice before handing out 142 mil to Crawford. It's funny, the guy who has the money, but I think follows this philosophy of not handing out the money is Moreno of the Angels. And yet it always seems like his teams find a way to make it in the playoffs or compete for a division title--albeit in a very weak division. The fans wanted him to grab Crawford, and I think Regans the GM wanted him badly, and Moreno said...hell no, not for that asking price. We'll concentrate on the youth and  the pitching danny, it is also about selling tickets and viewership numbers on TV. Theo has to keep the fans excited. I think Theo did a lot of homework on Crawford. I think Lackey was a hurry job. He and many of us were surprised he didn't get offered. $100M/6.  The last thing I want to do is defend the CC contract. Like I said, he was overpaid by about $50M and may turn out to be even worse than that. However, let's assume Crawford puts up his career average numbers over the course of the deal: . .295/.335/.440/.775 (Better from 2012-2013 and worse the last 2 years). How much is a player like that worth (with Good speed and fielding)? Maybe $90M/7? $70M/7? Less? So, let's say he is overpaid by $50-70M at most. I think you have to adjust that number by what the cost would have been to trade for a guy like Crawford, or to hope and pray that one out of a few hundred prospects truns out as good as the above numbers. Maybe the cost of a trade or hundreds of prospects development costs would be $20-40M. If you apply that to the amount CC is overpaid, it lessens the overall shock of his contract. That is all I am saying. If the idea is to appease the Sox Nation by grabbing every big name free agent in a given. The Yanks grabbed the top 3 in 2008. I think that might have had something to do with it. In hindsight, signing Holliday would have been better than CC. Signing Berkman to play LF for this year would have been genius.. . .. totally agree with that moon. the free agent market in itself has become a vast wasteland of money wasted on guys who were either truly overrated or just couldn't handle the pressure of performing to the contract--or Barry Zito Disease. I think it is more about FAs are usually past prime when they sign. At least Crawford was younger than most. . . I think Adrian Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay are examples of the few and the far between of guys who really are worth throwing a brinks truck at. Drew, Lackey, Crawford are guys you want to drive the brinks truck OVER. I agree,   but I really think it is hard to project player's 5-7 year futures at ages 29-31. Theo has not had good track record in this regard, but I think signing a few big FAs was inevidable in the Boston situation.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    You do bring up valid points about the Sox TV/market. And Crawford is/was younger than other FA signings. But let me say this. I never ever want to hear a story or an item by "an insider" about how Theo quibbled over 3 or 4 million on a player when he is so willing to "overpay by 50 million" on others. At least treat the fans as if they are intelligent (clearly we're not, and I mean that as a whole). If I hear that Papelbon leaves because another team was willing to go "10 million" more, for instance...I don't want Theo ever saying that was the case. He set the precedents, now deal with it.

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In other words, I'm not taking contract negotiations with the top of the heap Sox talent (Papelbon and Ellsbury) as the Sox can't afford them. They choose to not afford them. Just like they chose not to resign VMART in order to make sure they opened the spot for AGON in order to also move Youks back to 3B.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year : You do bring up valid points about the Sox TV/market. And Crawford is/was younger than other FA signings. But let me say this. I never ever want to hear a story or an item by "an insider" about how Theo quibbled over 3 or 4 million on a player when he is so willing to "overpay by 50 million" on others. At least treat the fans as if they are intelligent (clearly we're not, and I mean that as a whole). If I hear that Papelbon leaves because another team was willing to go "10 million" more, for instance...I don't want Theo ever saying that was the case. He set the precedents, now deal with it.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    I agree. If we "lose" Papelbon by $10M, Papi by $10M, Ellsbury by $10M (in 2 years), and others for a total of $20M, that $50 million "overpay" takes on a whole new light.

     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    Ellsbury may not be that eager to sign with Boston, and he will almost certainly be advised to test the market. This season, however, has six weeks to go, not counting playoffs, followed by two arbitration years. IF Theo is serious about an extension for Ellsbury, the player may decide that a bird in the hand -- one with rich plumage -- is preferable to risking an injury to the hand, or a decline in performance.  What kind of plumage? Well, the guy to his right is sporting feathers worth 142M for 7 years. And at the moment Ellsbury is outperforming his affluent neighbor, a fact that Boras has not missed. Nor Ellsbury himself.  
    If in the likelihood that no agreement is reached on on extension well into the off-season, and Theo sees that as handwriting on the wall, it's possible that he will ask around to gauge interest in Ellsbury, and go from there, essentially chucking the man's services for the next two years. Or he could wait a year, or wait until the trade deadline in 2013.  If Ellsbury's trade value is still high during that period, it will mean that he's been playing up a storm. If Ellsbury is traded at that point, Theo might have to trade his gorilla suit for a suit of armor for protection against irate fans.
    Any which way, Theo has overpaid ( for Crawford ) himself into a corner.
    Developments on this front will keep the hot stove at a high temperature. 
     
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    Re: Ellsbury speaks about his injury last year

    Look what teams got for 2 month rentals this year. I say Theo will hold onto Ellsbury until at least the winter of 2012-2013. I don't see softy's fantasy even being close to reality (Ells and a prospect for Kemp with an extension)

    Depending on the economy in 2 years, maybe Theo can and will outbid everyone for Jacoby. 
     

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