Re: Ellsbury - The Market
posted at 10/11/2012 8:57 AM EDT
Ellsbury's only longterm value to us is the draft pick we will almost certainy get after he walks following the 2013 season. I think it is nearly a 99% chance he goes somewhere else if allowed to become a free agent. The reasons are numerous.
That value of the draft pick is also transferable to a team trading for Ellsbury as long as the trade comes before the start of the 2013 season. Trading him afterwards loses that value and would lessen what we could get in return if we wait.
I am of the opinion that it will be nearly impossible for us to seriously compete for a championship in 2013, so it basically comes down to this: what is worth more for 2014 and beyong?
A) The draft choice we get when Ellsbury refuses our qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.
B) The player(s) and/or prospect(s) we can get in return for Ellsbury via trade this winter or early spring.
I think the answer is clearly "B". We should not just give Jacoby away, but I do feel we can packagae him with other players and/or prosects to get a key player under team control for 3+ years. Teams looking to contend in 2013 are the most likely targets, but some non-contending teams might also value that draft pick enough to trade away a talented player with more than one year of control who, perhaps, is paiod more than Ellsbury or has baloon payments on the horizion.
We must seriously try to get the best deal we can for Ellsbury, and if it is to a contending team, we have several other players who will be FAs after 2013 or 2014 that we could package together that could greatly help a team with a few high need areas that we could fill for them. In return, we could get a top prospect or young ML ready player at a psoition the team we are trading with has an excess.
Possible package players:
Aviles (FA after 2014): He is better than some current team SSs or could be a 2Bman, 3Bman, or a fine utility player.
Salty (FA after 2013): We could gamble on Lava and trade Salty to a team that is in great need of offense or who has weak catching now (there are many teams).
Breslow (FA after 2013): Fine LHPs are not easy to find or trade for.
Sweeney (FA after 2013): Nice fielding OF'er who does Ok vs RHPs.
Rich Hill (FA after 2013): Low value player, but could tip the balance on a package deal.
Bailey and Aceves (FA after 2014): Both have good value for the right club.