Ellsbury - The Market

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ADG's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But the biggest problem is that which team is willing to give up their best or second best starting pitcher?  Pitching are so hard to find in nowadays!!  Half of the top 25 2012 best MLB pitchers are all under the age of 30 years old.  They are going to be too stupid to give him up. Heck no way that Seattle will give up Felix.  Heck no way that Reds will give up Cueto.  Heck no way that Rays will give up Price.  Heck no way that White Sox will give up Sale....etc!!  And the worst part is that all of these young pitchers have been helping the team to have a good year!!!

    That is the problem.  Boston is more likely to get a pitcher who is probably bit over-paid or a middle of the rotation pitcher.  If Boston wanted a top notch starting pitcher, they may have to part away Ellsbury along with Bogaret, Lavarnway, etc

    You are right, no way Ellsbury alone nets us a Cuetto, Price or Sale. However, maybe an Ellsbury Lavarnway, Aviles and Breslow could net us a Shields or Brett Anderson type.

    [/QUOTE]

    moon - Aviles will be a free agent. He won't be offered arbitration. Lavarnway isn't worth anything right now and Breslow is another of lots of relievers. Given Ellsbury's contract status, the Red Sox would have to throw in a top 5 prospect.

    And a question for you: Do you think Oakland would take Ellsbury for a year and give up a 25 year old Anderson? Can they afford Ellsbury? Has their formula worked? The same can be said for Tampa. Those teams won't give up that pitching for a player they'll get one year out of.

    [/QUOTE]


    ADG - You think the Sox will let Aviles walk away for nothing?  I don't, I think they will offer him arb....and I think he'll play SS next season from May onward after the SS Iglesias sinks under the Mendoza sea.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sonics - They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Aviles is a decent utility player , but let's be realistic. He has absolutely no trade value. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    But the biggest problem is that which team is willing to give up their best or second best starting pitcher?  Pitching are so hard to find in nowadays!!  Half of the top 25 2012 best MLB pitchers are all under the age of 30 years old.  They are going to be too stupid to give him up. Heck no way that Seattle will give up Felix.  Heck no way that Reds will give up Cueto.  Heck no way that Rays will give up Price.  Heck no way that White Sox will give up Sale....etc!!  And the worst part is that all of these young pitchers have been helping the team to have a good year!!!

    That is the problem.  Boston is more likely to get a pitcher who is probably bit over-paid or a middle of the rotation pitcher.  If Boston wanted a top notch starting pitcher, they may have to part away Ellsbury along with Bogaret, Lavarnway, etc

    You are right, no way Ellsbury alone nets us a Cuetto, Price or Sale. However, maybe an Ellsbury Lavarnway, Aviles and Breslow could net us a Shields or Brett Anderson type.

    [/QUOTE]

    moon - Aviles will be a free agent. He won't be offered arbitration. Lavarnway isn't worth anything right now and Breslow is another of lots of relievers. Given Ellsbury's contract status, the Red Sox would have to throw in a top 5 prospect.

    And a question for you: Do you think Oakland would take Ellsbury for a year and give up a 25 year old Anderson? Can they afford Ellsbury? Has their formula worked? The same can be said for Tampa. Those teams won't give up that pitching for a player they'll get one year out of.

    [/QUOTE]


    ADG - You think the Sox will let Aviles walk away for nothing?  I don't, I think they will offer him arb....and I think he'll play SS next season from May onward after the SS Iglesias sinks under the Mendoza sea.

    [/QUOTE]

    Sonics - They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

    [/QUOTE]


    I don't believe we will give him away....a starting SS, with good power for a SS who statistically and by acclamation fielded his position well in his first full year there.  That has value.  Scoots' amazing resurgance in SF notwithstanding....was he worth 5 times Aviles?  Absolutely not.  And Aviles was only paid $1.2m....if he has as little value as you think, why do you think he'll get a huge arb rise? 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Moon, why would Tampa take on more salary in a Shields trade, when the reason they would need to trade him is to shed salary?  If they trade Shields, it's going to be for at least 3 high end prospects, not an expensive, soon to be free agent outfielder, a catching prospect who certainly isn't "can't miss," a utility infielder and a middle reliever?  On top of that, the only way they would ever trade Shields within that division is if they were blown away by a deal, which obviously puts the Sox in a bad position.  Cueto and Sale aren't going anywhere, and there is no shot of Tampa trading Price within the division... 

    It would have to be a 3 team deal.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    moon - Aviles will be a free agent. He won't be offered arbitration.

    He will be offered arb, get a small raise, and be traded to one of several teams with poor SSs (like Oakland, who tried to trade for him this year).

     

    Lavarnway isn't worth anything right now...

    He is too. Not all GM make definitive judgements based on puny sample sizes.

     

    and Breslow is another of lots of relievers.

    Breslow is a quality lefty reliever that does pretty well vs RHBs as well. As part of a package, he adds value. Alone- not so much.

     

    Given Ellsbury's contract status, the Red Sox would have to throw in a top 5 prospect.

    The thing is, the team we will trade Ellsbury to will be a contender looking to improve next year. They will more likely want guys that can help in 2013. That is why I brought up the names of players that will be FAs soon for us, not prospects. The "prospect: they would get in return is the sandwich pick they get after Ells walks following the 2013 season.

    And a question for you: Do you think Oakland would take Ellsbury for a year and give up a 25 year old Anderson?

    It may take a 3 team deal. Or, they may just take Aviles, Lavarnway, Brentz, and Tazawa.

     

    Can they afford Ellsbury?

    No. We'd have to pay part of his arb deal or involve a 3rd team.

     

    Has their formula worked?

    Yes, they trade players like Anderson away almost every year. (See Giom last year.)

     

    The same can be said for Tampa. Those teams won't give up that pitching for a player they'll get one year out of.

    TB is proven to be hawks for those sandwich picks. They'd value that dearly, but you are right, they'd want prospects not Ellsbury.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

    You act like offering arb means he'll make $10M next year. It is not even mike's final arb year. He will not even get what his true FA value is, so he is worth signing to an arb or pre-arb deal and then trading.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, why would Tampa take on more salary in a Shields trade, when the reason they would need to trade him is to shed salary?  If they trade Shields, it's going to be for at least 3 high end prospects, not an expensive, soon to be free agent outfielder, a catching prospect who certainly isn't "can't miss," a utility infielder and a middle reliever?  On top of that, the only way they would ever trade Shields within that division is if they were blown away by a deal, which obviously puts the Sox in a bad position.  Cueto and Sale aren't going anywhere, and there is no shot of Tampa trading Price within the division... 

    It would have to be a 3 team deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, 

    I agree. No way Tampa gives up Price in any trade to the Red Sox or any team within thier division. 

    As long as some are dreaming maybe the Yankees will unburden themselves of years of guilt after stealing the Babe from the Red Sox and will just hand us Cano's contract for Avilas and $1000 in cash. 

    Hetch

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, they trade players like Anderson away almost every year. (See Giom last year.)

    In the offseason following Oakland's last postseason appearance in 2006, the Athletics made no trades of note.

    The 2012 AL West champions are unlikely to have interest in Jacoby Ellsbury when the A's already have an affordable and productive outfield in Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Ellsbury, Brentz, De La Rosa and Iglesias for Price or F. Hernandez.  Otherwise, keep him around for 2013.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

    You act like offering arb means he'll make $10M next year. It is not even mike's final arb year. He will not even get what his true FA value is, so he is worth signing to an arb or pre-arb deal and then trading.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    I'm not insinuating that it has anything to do with the money, but I just don't see them offering him arbitration for lots of reasons.  The decision has already been made that he will not be the starting SS next year and Ciriaco seems to be a less expensive and quite possibly a more productive option as the utility infielder.  Aviles is the exact opposite of the type of high OBP players they want to get back to bringing in.  Also, Aviles would like an opportunity to go somewhere where he may get an opportunity to be a starter at SS or even as a 2nd baseman.  If he asks them not to offer him arbitration, so that he can search for his own deal, they will very likely grant him that opportunity, which is what I think will happen, but who knows...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury, Brentz, De La Rosa and Iglesias for Price or F. Hernandez.  Otherwise, keep him around for 2012.

    [/QUOTE]

    You mean 2013. 2012 is  history. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury, Brentz, De La Rosa and Iglesias for Price or F. Hernandez.  Otherwise, keep him around for 2012.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seattle is not interested in trading F.Hernandez and if they were we would have to give up too much to get him. As mentioned folks are dreaming if anyone thinks Tampa will trade Price to anyone in the same division.

    NOT GOING TO HAPPEN !!

    Hetch

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I doubt Boras will allow his client, Ellsbury to get traded.  If he does get traded, then that team will give him a very nice extension (many years and a lot of $$$).  

    Scott Boras is more powerful than the United Nations.  LOL

    [/QUOTE]


    Boras has nothing to say if the Red Sox decide to trade Jacoby to a team that doesn't want to give him an extention during the season.  This is one area where the agent is stuck like a bug on fly paper.  Of course, the Red Sox have to decide which way to go this winter and from what I've been reading of the various posts there seems to be a big difference of opinion of what the team should do.  Right now he has zilch value as a free agent so it behooves Ells  to stay healthy and have a bang up season in 2013 when he does become a FA.  Then the ball is in our court whether to  try and sign him or wish him sayonara.

     

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Yes, they trade players like Anderson away almost every year. (See Gio last year.)


    In the offseason following Oakland's last postseason appearance in 2006, the Athletics made no trades of note.

    That's why I said "almost every year" not "every year".

     

    The 2012 AL West champions are unlikely to have interest in Jacoby Ellsbury when the A's already have an affordable and productive outfield in Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick.

    Yes, and that's why I said it might take a 3rd team involved.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    m

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

    You act like offering arb means he'll make $10M next year. It is not even mike's final arb year. He will not even get what his true FA value is, so he is worth signing to an arb or pre-arb deal and then trading.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    I'm not insinuating that it has anything to do with the money, but I just don't see them offering him arbitration for lots of reasons.  The decision has already been made that he will not be the starting SS next year and Ciriaco seems to be a less expensive and quite possibly a more productive option as the utility infielder.  Aviles is the exact opposite of the type of high OBP players they want to get back to bringing in.  Also, Aviles would like an opportunity to go somewhere where he may get an opportunity to be a starter at SS or even as a 2nd baseman.  If he asks them not to offer him arbitration, so that he can search for his own deal, they will very likely grant him that opportunity, which is what I think will happen, but who knows...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They are not offering arbitration to guy coming off back to back seasons with an OBP below .290...He's a nice utility player, but he's clearly played his last game in a Sox uniform. Ciriaco will be less expensive and arguably gives them more value...

    You act like offering arb means he'll make $10M next year. It is not even mike's final arb year. He will not even get what his true FA value is, so he is worth signing to an arb or pre-arb deal and then trading.

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    I'm not insinuating that it has anything to do with the money, but I just don't see them offering him arbitration for lots of reasons.  The decision has already been made that he will not be the starting SS next year and Ciriaco seems to be a less expensive and quite possibly a more productive option as the utility infielder.  Aviles is the exact opposite of the type of high OBP players they want to get back to bringing in.  Also, Aviles would like an opportunity to go somewhere where he may get an opportunity to be a starter at SS or even as a 2nd baseman.  If he asks them not to offer him arbitration, so that he can search for his own deal, they will very likely grant him that opportunity, which is what I think will happen, but who knows...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

    [/QUOTE]

    It's all probbly moot, as it wouldn't seem likely that he would accept arbitration anyway..

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

    [/QUOTE]

    It's all probbly moot, as it wouldn't seem likely that he would accept arbitration anyway..

     

    He has no choice. He is bound to arbitration for 2 more years.

    The Sox determine his fate, and they will certainly offer him arb, probably sign him before they go to arb like they always do, then trade him to a team like the A's for a good B Level prospect, or as part of a package for a better player.

    Mike's career OPS is .715. That is better than 20 team's SS OPS in 2012. He has enough value to trade, especially since he seems to be a pretty decent fielder as well.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Back to Ellsbury.

    Basically, my position is this, if we were going to be strong contenders for the title next season, keeping Ellsbury and then getting the draft pick when he walks would be a plan with merit. However, that is not going to be the case unless we basically sign every big named FA and/or trade for guys like Upton. I don't see that happening and hope it doesn't.

    That being said, we should look to 2014 and beyond. Can we get more in return for Ellsbury via trade or via the draft pick?

    It's obvious what is worth more, since trading him means the team getting him (if done so before the season begins) also gets the value of the draft pick and should make an offer based on the draft pick value plus the value of one year of Ellsbury. That is clearly a greater value in theory, but I guess only if the player or prospect we get in return turns out better than the draftee.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury, Brentz, De La Rosa and Iglesias for Price or F. Hernandez.  Otherwise, keep him around for 2012.

    [/QUOTE]

    You mean 2013. 2012 is  history. 

    [/QUOTE]


     

     

    Thanks, fixed my post.  This getting old stuff stinks.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury, Brentz, De La Rosa and Iglesias for Price or F. Hernandez.  Otherwise, keep him around for 2012.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seattle is not interested in trading F.Hernandez and if they were we would have to give up too much to get him. As mentioned folks are dreaming if anyone thinks Tampa will trade Price to anyone in the same division.

     

     

     

    NOT GOING TO HAPPEN !!

    Hetch

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Pretty much my point. If you cannot get one of the top two pitchers in all of baseball, and I do not realistically think you can even with a pretty generous offer, then hang on to him for next year. See how the year plays out. He may prove to be worth more in July. He may prove to be not much more than a 1-year wonder. Maybe he gets injured and makes me look like a fool for saying keep him (at least all the haters will have something to crow about).  Who knows?  But there it is likelier that he helps the team more with his play, than by bringing in yet another starter with an ERA above 4.50, which is about all he brings at this point, IMO.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

    [/QUOTE]

    It's all probbly moot, as it wouldn't seem likely that he would accept arbitration anyway..

     

    He has no choice. He is bound to arbitration for 2 more years.

    The Sox determine his fate, and they will certainly offer him arb, probably sign him before they go to arb like they always do, then trade him to a team like the A's for a good B Level prospect, or as part of a package for a better player.

    Mike's career OPS is .715. That is better than 20 team's SS OPS in 2012. He has enough value to trade, especially since he seems to be a pretty decent fielder as well.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll agree to disagree.  I don't think they offer him arbitration and they let him find his own deal.  I guess we'll see...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Back to Ellsbury.

    Basically, my position is this, if we were going to be strong contenders for the title next season, keeping Ellsbury and then getting the draft pick when he walks would be a plan with merit. However, that is not going to be the case unless we basically sign every big named FA and/or trade for guys like Upton. I don't see that happening and hope it doesn't.

    That being said, we should look to 2014 and beyond. Can we get more in return for Ellsbury via trade or via the draft pick?

    It's obvious what is worth more, since trading him means the team getting him (if done so before the season begins) also gets the value of the draft pick and should make an offer based on the draft pick value plus the value of one year of Ellsbury. That is clearly a greater value in theory, but I guess only if the player or prospect we get in return turns out better than the draftee.

    [/QUOTE]

    This team has the nucleus to be competitive next year and they WILL put together a team that should be competitive "on paper."  As it stands right now, theyarguably have a better roster than Baltimore.  It doesn't have to be by signing "every big name free agent," either.

      As an example, if they sign a Peavy and a Hunter, and trade for a decent 1st base bat, they should be very competitive. They also have the resources to add significant depth, something they weren't able to do last year.  This whole idea that the Sox are going to have 4 or 5 kids ready in 2014 isn't reality.  Some will regress, get injured, traded, etc...They don't have to blow up the roster this winter to be competitive again.  It's already been done... 

     

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

    [/QUOTE]

    It's all probbly moot, as it wouldn't seem likely that he would accept arbitration anyway..

    We can disagree, but I'd still like to know why you think the Sox will give up on getting something for Aviles in favor of letting Aviles go to free agency and make his own deal. The only reason we'd let him go is if...

    1) We think nobody wants him.

    2) We think he will win his arb case and will be too over-priced to trade without us having to pay part of his contract.

    Do you think either of these cases is or can be true?

     

    He has no choice. He is bound to arbitration for 2 more years.

    The Sox determine his fate, and they will certainly offer him arb, probably sign him before they go to arb like they always do, then trade him to a team like the A's for a good B Level prospect, or as part of a package for a better player.

    Mike's career OPS is .715. That is better than 20 team's SS OPS in 2012. He has enough value to trade, especially since he seems to be a pretty decent fielder as well.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll agree to disagree.  I don't think they offer him arbitration and they let him find his own deal.  I guess we'll see...

    [/QUOTE]


     
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