Ellsbury - The Market

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    I would not mind seeing the Sox trade Ells mainly because I am looking at worst case scenario where he gets hurt again early next year and then becomes a player with no value.  He will not sign with the Sox after next year anyway...why not deal him and get some really good pitching prospects and hope one of them pans out.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    moon is correct...he's outta here as a Free agent...lets hope he has a good year (im sure he will since its a contract yr) and give him to a contender (we wont be) and get some top proven prospects....i cant see any scenario thats better than that...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moon is correct...he's outta here as a Free agent...lets hope he has a good year (im sure he will since its a contract yr) and give him to a contender (we wont be) and get some top proven prospects....i cant see any scenario thats better than that...

    [/QUOTE]


    If he has a good year, he will walk away from this team as a free agent.

     

    If he has a good first half for Boston, and they decide to sell him, he won't be worth as much since there will be no compensatory draft pick.

     

    And it is far too early to say who will be or won't be contenders.  You don't even know who will be on the Red Sox.  I'm sure as late as last August, you were still writing off the Orioles..

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moon is correct...he's outta here as a Free agent...lets hope he has a good year (im sure he will since its a contract yr) and give him to a contender (we wont be) and get some top proven prospects....i cant see any scenario thats better than that...

    [/QUOTE]


    If he has a good year, he will walk away from this team as a free agent.

     

    If he has a good first half for Boston, and they decide to sell him, he won't be worth as much since there will be no compensatory draft pick.

     

    And it is far too early to say who will be or won't be contenders.  You don't even know who will be on the Red Sox.  I'm sure as late as last August, you were still writing off the Orioles..

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It's actually just teams that perceive that they are contenders that will want Ellsbury and be willing to part with good prospects. The only way a team that perceives itself to be a non-contender in 2013 would trade for Ellsbury would be to trade a vet not prospects in order to dump salary and to gain the draft pick.

    As to your Ellsbury for Cliff Lee idea, I think we'd need some cash to offset the cost of the latter years.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Skadude22. Show Skadude22's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Skadude22's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anderson is not the guy to target.  For one, I think trading Ellsbury would be done for top prospects, not for an impact player. Two, if you get back Anderson, do you honestly think the team as constructed (minus Ellsbury), is only one pitcher away from contending? You don't trade for impact players if you aren't close to competing, especially pitchers that only play once every 5 games.  You trade Ellsbury for the best prospect package possible, or you don't trade him. 

     

    The idea is to load up on young talent.  It increases the likelihood that you have prospects pan out, and it makes it more likely that you will have an influx of talent from the farm for the coming years.  This creates extreme payroll flexibility (with the whole 6 years of control rule) and allows you the freedom to add that one piece when the time is right.  This plan is predicated on the idea that you put a great deal of emphasis on scouting, so the prospects you get are guys that you are confident will develop and be successful.

    [/QUOTE]


    Teams that operate this way typically do so more for budgetary reasons as opposed to actual strategy.

     

    All the years spent rebuilding represent lost revenue.  Very doubtful the Sox spend 2013 trying to rebuild the attendance numbers in Portland and Pawtucket and hope it translates to Fenway down the road...

    [/QUOTE]

    I disagree.  Yes, it is financially the smarter way to go. But the teams that use this because of budget restraints approach it differently. Every time they get a player in the arbitration process.  They either move him, or let him play out one arbitration season and then move him.  The value of trading a player with multiple years of control left gets them more value, and allows them to utilize the cheapest years of the player's career, and get top dollar back when they cut bait. 

    That being said, I'm not suggesting the Red Sox do that. I'm saying that they are already in rebuild mode.  They weren't close to competing this year, and obviously they recognized that it was not just because of injuries. Injuries didn't help, and they would have been better with a fully healthy team to start the year, but not enough to get them in the playoff race.

    It seems safe to assume they won't throw money at guys that they think are not good fits. So this offseason, that eliminates most of the top free agents.  They can build a decent team with guys like Hunter, Haren, LaRoche, Peavey, etc, but only on short term deals.  Again, they'd be better than they are currently, but again, not good enough to be a serious contender.  That being said, if they don't compete in 2013, and then they lose Ellsbury next winter, the best they get is either a 30 year old Ellsbury on a long term deal or a supplemental round pick.  If they trade him now, they could get multiple prospects (in my opinion), and help speed up the rebuilding process.  I'm not advocating trading away every player that gets to this point. 

    You could try to tie him up long term, or get the prospects, sign a one/two year stop gap, and get 6 years of Bradley to replace him after that.  These prospects ideally would fill holes in your system, like a legitimate first base prospect and a top of the rotation starter.  2013 is a bridge year, get another set of high picks in the 2014 draft, draft well in 2013 with the #7 pick, and hope your farm makes great strides this year.


    Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, Pedroia, Lavarnway/Saltalamacchia. Again the hole is 1B. So either you can trade some of those guys and go for it now, which seems unwise, or you keep them together and add prospects by subtracting a piece that is apparently going to be gone shortly anyways.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    We do appear to have a gaping hole at 1st base. What do you guys think we are going to do about that? Sands? A free agent like maybe...wait for it......

     

    Youk?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do appear to have a gaping hole at 1st base. What do you guys think we are going to do about that? Sands? A free agent like maybe...wait for it......

     

    Youk?

    [/QUOTE]


    I think we will look for a one year bridge player (Morneau?).

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Many feel the Sox will deal Ellbury this offseason.  And they might.

     

    But for who?  Sure, the Sox need a SP, but who will deal one for a single year of Ellsbury.  Given that he is a free agent after 2013 and represented by Scott Boras (and everyone knows what that means), his appeal will be limited to teams hoping to contend, also known as teams not dealing starting pitching.

     

    Also, this might be the wrong year to deal a CF.  The FA market OF talent pretty much all plays CF, with Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Victorino, Ichiro, Pagan and even Melky available.   Why surrender talent?

     

    So what are the epxectations if Ellsbury is dealt?

    [/QUOTE]


    I really can't see us getting much for Ells and agree CF's are all over the place this winter.  We are better off keeping him and hoping for another 2011 season.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    I really can't see us getting much for Ells and agree CF's are all over the place this winter. We are better off keeping him and hoping for another 2011 season.

    The point is, Ellsbury could hit .350 with 50 HRs in 2013, and we still won't make the playoffs, let alone advance too far.

    Best to look to 2014 and beyond.

    Ellsbury's current value is enhanced by the attached draft choice. There will not be many supplemental picks anymore under the new plan, so this has more value than past years.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We do appear to have a gaping hole at 1st base. What do you guys think we are going to do about that? Sands? A free agent like maybe...wait for it......

     

    Youk?

    [/QUOTE]


    1B is much easier to fill than LF.

     

    The Sox do have Sands, or their are some free agent options best used for short term only (Carlos Pena?), or they could move on non-tender candidate Kendrys Morales or try a real gamble and move on the unwanted Dan Uggla.

     

     

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moon is correct...he's outta here as a Free agent...lets hope he has a good year (im sure he will since its a contract yr) and give him to a contender (we wont be) and get some top proven prospects....i cant see any scenario thats better than that...

    [/QUOTE]


    If he has a good year, he will walk away from this team as a free agent.

     

    If he has a good first half for Boston, and they decide to sell him, he won't be worth as much since there will be no compensatory draft pick.

     

    And it is far too early to say who will be or won't be contenders.  You don't even know who will be on the Red Sox.  I'm sure as late as last August, you were still writing off the Orioles..

     

    [/QUOTE]


    It's actually just teams that perceive that they are contenders that will want Ellsbury and be willing to part with good prospects. The only way a team that perceives itself to be a non-contender in 2013 would trade for Ellsbury would be to trade a vet not prospects in order to dump salary and to gain the draft pick.

    As to your Ellsbury for Cliff Lee idea, I think we'd need some cash to offset the cost of the latter years.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Not so much my idea as it is one of the better matches I can see sitting out there.  Cash or prospects to offset would be nice.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I really can't see us getting much for Ells and agree CF's are all over the place this winter. We are better off keeping him and hoping for another 2011 season.

    The point is, Ellsbury could hit .350 with 50 HRs in 2013, and we still won't make the playoffs, let alone advance too far.

    Best to look to 2014 and beyond.

    Ellsbury's current value is enhanced by the attached draft choice. There will not be many supplemental picks anymore under the new plan, so this has more value than past years.

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return.  A team like the Mariners would need to give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen, or it's just not worth it just yet in my opinion moon.  

     

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I really can't see us getting much for Ells and agree CF's are all over the place this winter. We are better off keeping him and hoping for another 2011 season.

    The point is, Ellsbury could hit .350 with 50 HRs in 2013, and we still won't make the playoffs, let alone advance too far.

    Best to look to 2014 and beyond.

    Ellsbury's current value is enhanced by the attached draft choice. There will not be many supplemental picks anymore under the new plan, so this has more value than past years.

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return.  Who knows? a team like the Mariners might give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.  

     

     

     



     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return. Who knows? a team like the Mariners might give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.

    As long as the return is greaater than the stimated value of the draft pick, we should seriously consider pulling the trigger.

    I do think some GM will over-value Ellsbury's value and hope he has a "contract year" like 2011. 

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return. Who knows? a team like the Mariners might give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.

    As long as the return is greaater than the stimated value of the draft pick, we should seriously consider pulling the trigger.

    I do think some GM will over-value Ellsbury's value and hope he has a "contract year" like 2011. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Possibly, but that team is unlikely to be Seattle, and certainly unlikely to send one of their top tier prospects.

     

    Think of it this way - Justin Upton is younger and cheaper than Ellsbury, and far more likely to go off on a 30-30 year.  Yet no one on this board wants to deal Bogaerts, Bradley and/or Barnes for him.  Or at least, very few.

     

    If Sox fans are so unlikely to part with top tier prospects with hopes that a player can have a mega year, why do we think other teams will do so without giving it a second thought?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Regardless of one's opinion on re-signing Ellsbury , or anyone else for that matter , at what point did we become a middle-market team ?   It used to be that only the Yankees could outbid us for desirable players. Now , we are concerned about payroll  , and unable to compete on the free agent market ?   What happened ?  Have we been scared off by our mistakes ?  That will not work. Our farm system is not good enough to make us a winner. Spending money is still necessary.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return. Who knows? a team like the Mariners might give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.

    As long as the return is greaater than the stimated value of the draft pick, we should seriously consider pulling the trigger.

    I do think some GM will over-value Ellsbury's value and hope he has a "contract year" like 2011. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Possibly, but that team is unlikely to be Seattle, and certainly unlikely to send one of their top tier prospects.

     

    Think of it this way - Justin Upton is younger and cheaper than Ellsbury, and far more likely to go off on a 30-30 year.  Yet no one on this board wants to deal Bogaerts, Bradley and/or Barnes for him.  Or at least, very few.

     

    If Sox fans are so unlikely to part with top tier prospects with hopes that a player can have a mega year, why do we think other teams will do so without giving it a second thought?

    [/QUOTE]

    You and moon both make good points but to give up Barnes in any deal might be a mistake.  I grew up and now live in CT again.   I'm no expert by any means but after watching Barnes at Uconn and playing the game for many years I wouldn't throw the kid into any package unless a top notch starter like Felix was involved.   

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Regardless of one's opinion on re-signing Ellsbury , or anyone else for that matter , at what point did we become a middle-market team ?   It used to be that only the Yankees could outbid us for desirable players. Now , we are concerned about payroll  , and unable to compete on the free agent market ?   What happened ?  Have we been scared off by our mistakes ?  That will not work. Our farm system is not good enough to make us a winner. Spending money is still necessary.

    [/QUOTE]

    It's like every company.  You have to be good at everything to be successful.  If depend on spending, or the draft, or trading, we won't win.  You need to develop one insider for each outsider you acquire.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Regardless of one's opinion on re-signing Ellsbury , or anyone else for that matter , at what point did we become a middle-market team ?   It used to be that only the Yankees could outbid us for desirable players. Now , we are concerned about payroll  , and unable to compete on the free agent market ?   What happened ?  Have we been scared off by our mistakes ?  That will not work. Our farm system is not good enough to make us a winner. Spending money is still necessary.

    [/QUOTE]


    My position on trading Ellsbury has nothing to do with our budget or payroll.

    1) I do not think he is worth what the highest bidder will bid. This is total conjecture on my part, since we don't know what he he will be offered, and the offer may be altered radically by a fine or awful 2013 season.

    2) I do not think Ellsbury wants to play on the Red Sox, so we might have to blow away the top offer to convince him to stay here.

    3) The injury issues are hard to project going forward. I won't get into the perception that he draws our injury time.

    4) We could always sign him as a FA after 2013, even if we trade him this winter.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    If Sox fans are so unlikely to part with top tier prospects with hopes that a player can have a mega year, why do we think other teams will do so without giving it a second thought?

     

    I don't expect a Bogaerts, Bradley, or Barnes type player in return for Ellsbury, but with the draft pick value attached, we may find a GM somewhere desperate enough to take a gamble.

    I just want a prospect significantly better than what we can expect to get with the supplemental comp pick after Ellsbury bolts. I think that will not be hard to do.

    If Seattle thinks Ellsbury can make them serious contenders, they may part with one of the guys listed, or maybe we'd have to give another player along with Ellsbury to sweeten the deal (maybe Aviles or Breslow or Sweeney or Nava or Atchison type...)

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A year of Ells and a pick is still a risk for anyone to give us much in return. Who knows? a team like the Mariners might give up a Paxton, Walker or Hultzen.

    As long as the return is greaater than the stimated value of the draft pick, we should seriously consider pulling the trigger.

    I do think some GM will over-value Ellsbury's value and hope he has a "contract year" like 2011. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Possibly, but that team is unlikely to be Seattle, and certainly unlikely to send one of their top tier prospects.

     

    Think of it this way - Justin Upton is younger and cheaper than Ellsbury, and far more likely to go off on a 30-30 year.  Yet no one on this board wants to deal Bogaerts, Bradley and/or Barnes for him.  Or at least, very few.

     

    If Sox fans are so unlikely to part with top tier prospects with hopes that a player can have a mega year, why do we think other teams will do so without giving it a second thought?

    [/QUOTE]

    You and moon both make good points but to give up Barnes in any deal might be a mistake.  I grew up and now live in CT again.   I'm no expert by any means but after watching Barnes at Uconn and playing the game for many years I wouldn't throw the kid into any package unless a top notch starter like Felix was involved.   

     

    [/QUOTE]


    That wasn't even remotely the point...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If Seattle thinks Ellsbury can make them serious contenders, they may part with one of the guys listed, or maybe we'd have to give another player along with Ellsbury to sweeten the deal (maybe Aviles or Breslow or Sweeney or Nava or Atchison type...)

    Jacoby Ellsbury might not be any better than a .260/.305/.390/.695 hitter playing half his games at Safeco Field (recall the .271/.313/.370/.682 line Ellsbury posted this year playing half his games in one of baseball's better hitting environments).

    In 2012 Seattle outfielders Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez and Casper Wells posted OPS+ of 110, 107 and 99, respectively. Ellsbury has a lifetime OPS+ of 106, but had a career OPS+ of 93 entering the 2011 season and an OPS+ of 83 this year. One year of Ellsbury would be too risky to surrender six years of a top prospect.

    Mike Aviles, Craig Breslow, Ryan Sweeney, Daniel Nava and Scott Atchison have no place on the Mariner roster because those current Sox would only block Seattle's highly regarded young players.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Sox fans are so unlikely to part with top tier prospects with hopes that a player can have a mega year, why do we think other teams will do so without giving it a second thought?

     

    I don't expect a Bogaerts, Bradley, or Barnes type player in return for Ellsbury, but with the draft pick value attached, we may find a GM somewhere desperate enough to take a gamble.

    I just want a prospect significantly better than what we can expect to get with the supplemental comp pick after Ellsbury bolts. I think that will not be hard to do.

    If Seattle thinks Ellsbury can make them serious contenders, they may part with one of the guys listed, or maybe we'd have to give another player along with Ellsbury to sweeten the deal (maybe Aviles or Breslow or Sweeney or Nava or Atchison type...)

    [/QUOTE]


    The problem with the Mariners is then, everyone things that means they need to send bac Walker or Hultzen or Paxton.  Those guys are basically the equivalent of Barnes, Bogaerts, etc.  Seattle won't be dealing them for an off chance that Ellsbury manages to stay on the field long enough to become an Option Year Hero.   And while Sox fans like to argue Ellsbury is not injury-prone and that wont be an issue, they are wrong.  Rival GMs will view him as an aggressive player who puts himself in risky situations that reduce his playing time.  And theyhave a track record to back it up. 

     

    It is hard to say who ellsbury can turn into a contender right now, since there will be a few rounds of musical roster chairs over the next 4 months.  The prime front runners are expected to be the Braves, Nationals, and White Sox.   The Rangers and Phillies might join in depending on which team gets Hamilton...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    The reality is that Ellsbury's market value took a huge hit after what could only be described as a sub par season in 2012. After returning from the DL, not only, did he not hit, he also showed little desire to run when he did get on base. So the question in every GM's mind and one that Boras has to answer is why he fell so far after an MVP level season in 2011?

    As such, given his oft injured resume and his sub par 2012 season (after returning from the dL) Ellsbury's trade value most certainly has taken a hit and in the interest of the 2013 team. The question that Cherington has to answer is are we better with or without Ellsbury...The easy answer given the derth of talant on the ML roster is we're better off with him manning center than we would be without him. Like it or not he's the best outfielder on the 40 man roster. A player that has much to gain from posting another career year...Something he, Boras and the Red Sox are fully aware of.

    End of the day the Red Sox today are in a retooling mode but they're also in the business of making money too. A healthy Ellsbury at the top of the lineup certainly won't hurt our chances of competing in 2013. In the big picture if the return in a trade doesn't net us a player that can be part of the nucleaus in 2014 and beyond then there's really no reason to trade him. Which then allows Cherington a full season to look for a replacement all the while spending this off season in search of a legit middle of the order hitter...

     
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