Ellsbury - The Market

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    If Seattle thinks Ellsbury can make them serious contenders, they may part with one of the guys listed, or maybe we'd have to give another player along with Ellsbury to sweeten the deal (maybe Aviles or Breslow or Sweeney or Nava or Atchison type...)


    Jacoby Ellsbury might not be any better than a .260/.305/.390/.695 hitter playing half his games at Safeco Field (recall the .271/.313/.370/.682 line Ellsbury posted this year playing half his games in one of baseball's better hitting environments).

     

    In 2012 Seattle outfielders Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez and Casper Wells posted OPS+ of 110, 107 and 99, respectively. Ellsbury has a lifetime OPS+ of 106, but had a career OPS+ of 93 entering the 2011 season and an OPS+ of 83 this year. One year of Ellsbury would be too risky to surrender six years of a top prospect.

    You may be right, but neither of us knows how much the Seattle GM values Jacoby.

    Mike Aviles, Craig Breslow, Ryan Sweeney, Daniel Nava and Scott Atchison have no place on the Mariner roster because those current Sox would only block Seattle's highly regarded young players.

    A guy like Breslow fits into any team's 12 man staff.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    ....The easy answer given the derth of talant on the ML roster is we're better off with him manning center than we would be without him. Like it or not he's the best outfielder on the 40 man roster.

     

    Simply put, I don't really care about winning 85 games instead of 75-80 in 2013. I care about 2014 and beyond, and even if we just get a decent role player in return, that helps us more than a sandwich pick next year.

     

    A player that has much to gain from posting another career year...Something he, Boras and the Red Sox are fully aware of.

     

    I am aware as well, but like I said, Jacoby could hit .350 with 50 HRs and we still aren't going anywhere in 2013. 

     

    End of the day the Red Sox today are in a retooling mode but they're also in the business of making money too. A healthy Ellsbury at the top of the lineup certainly won't hurt our chances of competing in 2013. In the big picture if the return in a trade doesn't net us a player that can be part of the nucleaus in 2014 and beyond then there's really no reason to trade him. Which then allows Cherington a full season to look for a replacement all the while spending this off season in search of a legit middle of the order hitter...

    I disagree. I think even a deflated value Ellsbury plus the sandwich pick can and will net us a decent prospect or player with multiple years of team control (maybe not 6 years- maybe not a top 3 prospect, but still someone decent enough to be expected to be a contributing player in 2014 and beyond.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    A trade of Jacoby Ellsbury for Texas starter Derek Holland has been rumored, according to Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-10-13/sports/sc-spt-1014-whispers-rogers-baseball--20121014_1_josh-hamilton-jay-bruce-joey-votto

    In March, the now 26-year-old lefthander signed a five-year, $28.5 million extension through 2016 with $11+ million team options for two additional years.

    I would be surprised if the Rangers traded away a young pitcher.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A trade of Jacoby Ellsbury for Texas starter Derek Holland has been rumored, according to Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-10-13/sports/sc-spt-1014-whispers-rogers-baseball--20121014_1_josh-hamilton-jay-bruce-joey-votto

    In March, the now 26-year-old lefthander signed a five-year, $28.5 million extension through 2016 with $11+ million team options for two additional years.

    I would be surprised if the Rangers traded away a young pitcher.

    [/QUOTE]


    I can't see the Rangers doing this, unless other players are involved.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    A guy like Breslow fits into any team's 12 man staff.


    Craig Breslow, a 32-year-old lefthander who becomes a free agent following the 2013 season, would be unlikely to dislodge Seattle's lefthanders -- 26-year-old Charlie Furbush and 25-year-old Lucas Luetge -- from the Mariner bullpen (and 30-year-old southpaw Oliver Perez reportedly is interested in returning after 33 stellar apearances in relief in 2012).

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    A guy like Breslow fits into any team's 12 man staff.



    Craig Breslow, a 32-year-old lefthander who becomes a free agent following the 2013 season, would be unlikely to dislodge Seattle's lefthanders -- 26-year-old Charlie Furbush and 25-year-old Lucas Luetge -- from the Mariner bullpen (and 30-year-old southpaw Oliver Perez reportedly is interested in returning after 33 stellar apearances in relief in 2012).

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll pull a Hill on you here:

     

    Breslow (turned 32 in August):

    2012 WAR: +0.8 / 2011 WAR: +0.5 (Career +3.2 in 358 games)

    1.17 WHIP in 2012 (1.23 career) /2.70 ERA in 2012 (3.00 Career)

     

    Furbush (27 next April):

    2012 WAR +0.8 / 2011 WAR  -0.2 (Career +0.7 in 76 games)

    1.30 WHIP / 4.51 ERA

     

    Luetge (26 next March):

    2012 & Career WAR: 0.0 in 63 games

    1.50 WHIP /3.98 ERA

     

    Breslow has clearly been better than both of these guys over the last 2 years using your favorite criteria. 

    I think he'd make the 12 man staff in 2013 for almost every team in MLB, including the Mariners. His contract will not be high.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A trade of Jacoby Ellsbury for Texas starter Derek Holland has been rumored, according to Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-10-13/sports/sc-spt-1014-whispers-rogers-baseball--20121014_1_josh-hamilton-jay-bruce-joey-votto

    In March, the now 26-year-old lefthander signed a five-year, $28.5 million extension through 2016 with $11+ million team options for two additional years.

    I would be surprised if the Rangers traded away a young pitcher.

    [/QUOTE]


    I would, too, espeically given how the rst of the staff shapes up.

     

    Holland does have a 5.34ERA in Arlington, 4.08 everywhere else...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I do not think Ellsbury wants to play on the Red Sox,

    Ya think...........................the guy hasn't played much for the Red Sox in the last three years.

    In the big picture if the return in a trade doesn't net us a player that can be part of the nucleaus in 2014 and beyond then there's really no reason to trade him. Which then allows Cherington a full season to look for a replacement all the while spending this off season in search of a legit middle of the order hitter...

    In reality, Ellsbury represents a high draft pick and one season for someone who needs an old veteran CF'er. Your myopia is in thinking that trading Ellsbury is it. In fact, trading Ellsbury would and should be part of a package of farm talent that the Red Sox, after the trade, have no need for. Thus, if the Red Sox trade for the only starter worth trading for, Felix, something I don't advocate, it would mean that the Red Sox can let the Mariners have Barnes and Webster and De Pipedram et al from the farm pitching prospect pool but Bogearts Brentz and Bradley, Jr., would be off the table.  and the Mariners would get Ellspuff for one season and the high draft compesnation they will get if they get the same loser the Red Sox have had to put up with. I don't see the Mariners doing it, which is a good thing for the Red Sox because Felix has high miles and isn't going to be any difference maker pitching every 5 days for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox traded for J. Upton, that means Brentz and even Bogaerts would be part of a pool of players from the farm that would not include Barnes and Bradley, Jr..

    Trading Ellsbury is obvious for the following reasons:

    1. Why pay 10 million dollars for a player who is no difference maker (Every season, last season and certainly this season proved it) and will not be part of the Red Sox future, when one year patches and platoon can be signed for much cheaper, as Bradley, Jr., not Ellsbury, is the future CF'er for the Red Sox

    2.  Red Sox fan support doesn't require Ellsbury to fill up the seats or watch on the media outlets

    3. Using Ellsbury and his draft pick as part of a trade package is far better than paying him 10 million to FA for the draft compensation. As part of a trade package, he's attractive because of the draft compensation and because it allows other contenders to stay away from any long term contract until Ellsbury plays a full season for them, at which time they can cash in or cash out.

    It iwll be total incompetence if Cherry panders to the Red Sox fan base and pays 10 million for the last Red Sox season of Ellsbury. He was a bigger embarrassment this year than he was in 2010, and he was absolutely no difference maker in 2011.

    [/QUOTE]


    The draft pick with Ellsbury hardly justifies the trade if you have to giveup anything.  "Hey, we gave up a great prospect/player, but we got one year of this guy and maybe, if we drat right, we get a good prospect/player back and break even."

     

    Now that the draft pick compensation has been reduced to a sandwich pick, it is nowhere near as valuable as before, when late first rounders were at stake.   If teams want a sandwich pick, there will be cheaper Type A's to trade for and acquire one.  The pick is not unique to Ellsbury.

     

    Ellsbury's appeal is to a team that wants to win now.  The problem is, there will be nearly a dozen other decent CF's also available this offseason.  Why pay heavily for ellsbury when you can simply sign Pagan or settle for the significantly cheaper Peter Bourjos?  You may not get your draft pick, but you probably get to keep the prospect it would cost to get Ellsbury, which is definitely favorable...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Derek Holland ? Just what we need. Another second-rate starting pitcher.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Now that the draft pick compensation has been reduced to a sandwich pick, it is nowhere near as valuable as before, when late first rounders were at stake.   If teams want a sandwich pick, there will be cheaper Type A's to trade for and acquire one.  The pick is not unique to Ellsbury.

     

    No. The only FAs that net a draft pick are those who will be offered about $12-13M by their team, the player refuses, and they sign elsewhere. There will not be that many out there, and probably none "cheaper Type A's" than what Ellsbury will be offered. He is likely to be offered near the minimum needed to get the sandwich pick. There is no longer "Type A" and "Type B" - only FAs who were offered over the qualifying amount and refused.

    By the way, a sandwich pick is pretty close to a low first round pick.

     

    Ellsbury's appeal is to a team that wants to win now.  The problem is, there will be nearly a dozen other decent CF's also available this offseason.  Why pay heavily for ellsbury when you can simply sign Pagan or settle for the significantly cheaper Peter Bourjos?  You may not get your draft pick, but you probably get to keep the prospect it would cost to get Ellsbury, which is definitely favorable...

    There are several FA CF'ers available, but my guess is that some GM will value Ellsbury and the sandwich pick enough to give us a decent prospect. It doesn't have to be a great prospect for me to say yes, but it should be someone like a Webster, de la Rosa or  Brentz type. (Like a team's 3-6th best prospect)

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Skadude22. Show Skadude22's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    If I'm not mistaken, Melky Cabrera is set to become a free agent this winter.  He was traded last offseason with one year left on his contract for Jonathan Sanchez.


    I can't imagine that anyone values Ellsbury less than Melky Cabrera last offseason.  By comparison, the trade value for Ellsbury would be much higher.

     
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