Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I made this proposal on another thread, and Sherriff suggested I start a new thread to see what others think.  I almost started this thread a couple of weeks ago when I first heard this suggestion on the radio.

    Here is the idea.  Ellsbury to the Mariners for Michael Pineda, Franklin Gutierrez and a minor leaguer.  The player suggested was Mariners minor league pitcher of the year Taijuan Walker.  He is only 18 but is their #1 prospect right now.

    So, the reasoning.  Ellsbury is from Oregon and is considered a local boy.  He could add excitement and a left-handed bat in CF.  Seattle would be dealing from depth as they do have a good amount of young pitching.  The Sox would get a right-handed bat in Gutierrez, who is also a Gold Glove CFer.  He isn't a middle of the lineup bat, however.  They would also be getting a good young pitcher in Pineda.  Pineda started strong last year, but tired down the stretch.  The Mariners did limit his innings towards the season's end.  If the Sox feel Walker is too far away to make the deal, another possible player is their #3 prospect James Paxton. He is a left-handed starter, and has already pitched in AA. He may only be a couple of years away. The #2 prospect is last year's first round draft pick Danny Hultzen. Being a top pick out of college, I think the Mariners expect him to be with the parent club by next season, and probably wouldn't deal him.

    I first heard of these trade ideas while listening to ESPN/Seattle and Kevin Calabro. He had heard the suggestion from another host of the station. It is an interesting idea. If the Mariners made the trade, and signed Fielder (there is a lot of talk about that here), it may cause a buzz and help increase attendance, showing the city the team cares about winning. From the Sox perspective, they get a couple young starting pitchers, one who could be a #3 or #4 this upcoming season. They also still fill the CF position with a RH bat (albeit not a great one). 

    Thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I'd think the Mariners are unlikely to give up 5 years of Pineda, especially after a great start to his first year, for 2 years of Ellsbury. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I think I would do this...Pineda and Walker are both high upside cost controlled arms. Would be a big blow to the current team however.

    Not sure why M's would do this...would they resign him?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The Mariners cannot trade Hultzen unitl 6 months after they signed him, and even then he can only be dealt as a PTBNL and not named for 6 mroe months.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The thought is they would res-sign him.  Ichiro will be a free agent at the end of the year, and that would free up $18 million a year (though they will probably re-sign him for at a lower cost).  Figgins will be done in two years and that is another $9 million.  They will have a lot of cost controlled players in Smoak, Ackley and Carp, with young a 3B being manned by Vinnie Catricala or Alex Liddi and SS by Nick Franklin (#4 prospect).  With a lot of young arms, they will be able to afford Ellsbury even if they sign Fielder.  They are actually a huge market, having a TV contract that contains the states of Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho and Montana. 

    I think a 4th player was also mentioned in the suggested deal, but I may be wrong.  Ellsbury would be a big draw here and he is the centerpiece of the deal. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]The Mariners cannot trade Hultzen unitl 6 months after they signed him, and even then he can only be dealt as a PTBNL and not named for 6 mroe months.
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    As I said, I wouldn't expect the M's to trade him at all.  That would be a bad PR move to trade the #2 pick.  They need good PR here right now.  The natives are restless.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    It's real interesting, but as good as Ellsbury is, I don't see Seattle doing it.  Gutierrez doesn't do much for me, but he could be effective at the Fens.  At worst, he's Coco Crisp, and I can live with that.  Then it's 5 years of control for Pineda for 2 of Ellsbury.  Pitching at Seattle tends to skew the stats with the park and their defense, but Pineda was ranked #18 in the minors, so last year doesn't seem like a fluke.  And I'd guess that Walker would have to be top-100 next year, right?

    The offense would take a big hit, but Pineda addresses a huge need in a big way.

    Still can't imagine Seattle doing it, but they were handily last in scoring, and they are off 500k in attendance since 2006.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Oh, and thank you Fish for bringing an interesting idea to the table.  Here I thought that I had accidently stumbled into a website devoted entirely to #7 SPs and backup catchers.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]It's real interesting, but as good as Ellsbury is, I don't see Seattle doing it.  Gutierrez doesn't do much for me, but he could be effective at the Fens.  At worst, he's Coco Crisp, and I can live with that.  Then it's 5 years of control for Pineda for 2 of Ellsbury.  Pitching at Seattle tends to skew the stats with the park and their defense, but Pineda was ranked #18 in the minors, so last year doesn't seem like a fluke.  And I'd guess that Walker would have to be top-100 next year, right? The offense would take a big hit, but Pineda addresses a huge need in a big way. Still can't imagine Seattle doing it, but they were handily last in scoring, and they are off 500k in attendance since 2006.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    The attendance is really an issue here.  Weekday crowds were in the 12-15K range.  Even with the Yankees in town, they only drew about 20 thousand per game in September.  And the talk here is bad.  A lot of impatient fans (like that is unique here) that want them to make a splash, especially since the Angels made their moves.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The thing is , will Ellsbury continue to produce at a high level?  If he did , then Seattle would never be able to re-sign him. The Oregon roots mean nothing. He would wind up in New York.  So , I don't see the Mariners going for this. Actually , as a Sox fan , I don't like the deal either.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]The thing is , will Ellsbury continue to produce at a high level?  If he did , then Seattle would never be able to re-sign him. The Oregon roots mean nothing. He would wind up in New York.  So , I don't see the Mariners going for this. Actually , as a Sox fan , I don't like the deal either.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    Players don't hire Scott Boras to help them get jobs closer to home...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I don't see the point in getting rid of such a youthful talent as Ells. He has speed, great center fielder, hits for power now too. Why get rid of that? Don't we want the Sox to get younger and groom some players for years?  If you are willing to deal Ells then why not Pedroia, and Bard, and Lester. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. The Sox need to hang on to Ells. It just does not make sense to trade him.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]The thing is , will Ellsbury continue to produce at a high level?  If he did , then Seattle would never be able to re-sign him. The Oregon roots mean nothing. He would wind up in New York.  So , I don't see the Mariners going for this. Actually , as a Sox fan , I don't like the deal either.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    Can't always tell.  It's a given that he'll be looking for real good money, but he might need to clear the table.  And if he extended now for 5-6 years, he'd at least be doing so when his value is as high as its ever been.  If he signs now, it's Crawford money.  If he slips back to .825-.850, he costs himself money, and if he gets hurt...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]It would make Softlaw happy since it would send the Injun back to the reservation in Oregon.
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]

    Pike I like this! I couldn't have said it better myself. What's the world coming to? I've agreed with you TWICE tonight. "Worlds are colliding". Trade Ellsbury? No, no, and then when all things are considered--NO.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dhfalk. Show dhfalk's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The only reason for this thread is that everyone knows the Red Sox are not going to spend big bucks to keep Ellsbury. This thread should really be about the team's ruinous management.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]I don't see the point in getting rid of such a youthful talent as Ells. He has speed, great center fielder, hits for power now too. Why get rid of that? Don't we want the Sox to get younger and groom some players for years?  If you are willing to deal Ells then why not Pedroia, and Bard, and Lester. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. The Sox need to hang on to Ells. It just does not make sense to trade him.
    Posted by antiqueman1[/QUOTE]

    There are some reasons to trade Ellsbury.

    1) He is only signed for 2 more years, and will hit free agency, unlike Lester and Pedroia, who have signed extensions.  Ellsbury is very unlikely to sign an extension; its not the Scott Boras Way.
    2) His value is very unlikely to ever be higher.
    3) The Sox have OF depth at his positon, but are very thin in others (PITCHING!!!) that he could be dealt for.
    4) If the Sox actually want a good pitcher, they are not going to get one for a package of Lars Anderson and Jed Lowrie.  Quality has to be invoved.

    Also, he is 28, not 23.  28 is not really baseball youth.

    THere are also good reasons to keep Ellsbury and then let him walk.  It's very possible his next two years will be the best two he has left (health permitting).  Then let him walk and let someone else overpay for his decline....
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]I don't see the point in getting rid of such a youthful talent as Ells. He has speed, great center fielder, hits for power now too. Why get rid of that? Don't we want the Sox to get younger and groom some players for years?  If you are willing to deal Ells then why not Pedroia, and Bard, and Lester. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. The Sox need to hang on to Ells. It just does not make sense to trade him.
    Posted by antiqueman1[/QUOTE]

    Actually, they would get younger.  Pineda is 5 years younger, and if you got Walker, that another 5 years to add to that.

    The reason why you trade Ellsbury is that you only have him for two years, while you'd have Pedroia for 4 years.

    Not to mention that Kalish might be our CF in another 2 years.

    It's not like you're trading him away for nothing.  IMO, a guy like Pineda is more valuable than Felix because his cost is so much lower.  Pineda had a better Whip and OPSa than Felix.  If Seattle offered Felix for Ells, would you do it?
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]The only reason for this thread is that everyone knows the Red Sox are not going to spend big bucks to keep Ellsbury. This thread should really be about the team's ruinous management.
    Posted by dhfalk[/QUOTE]

    To be fair, before this year, Ellsbury was a .291 / .344 / .405 hitter with 20 career home runs in 3+ years.

    Carl Crawford was a .296 / .337 / .444 hitter beore this year, and had already reached career milestones he shared ony with Ty Cobb.

    Before 2011, did anyone think Ellsbury would ever be a 30/30 player potentially commaning $20mill per?

    Now we all did know he hired Scott Boras, which all but guarantees free agency.  So that is certainly a fctor in how the Sox got Crawford....
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    the only way i would trade ellsbury to the mariners is if felix hernandez is the guy i would be getting from them. not pineda. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]The only reason for this thread is that everyone knows the Red Sox are not going to spend big bucks to keep Ellsbury. This thread should really be about the team's ruinous management.
    Posted by dhfalk[/QUOTE]

    No, the reason for this thread is about trying to discuss ways to make the Sox better in a way that also makes sense for the other team.  I again state, this suggestion was made by people in the Seattle media.  There are no rumors of this trade, it is just Hot Stove fun.  I originally brought this up in the trade for Hanley Ramirez thread, as people were talking about Ellsbury for Ramirez.  My thought was if the Sox are going to trade Ellsubry, they need to do it for pitching in a way that makes sense for both teams.

    I agree with those that say it may be difficult for the Mariners to sign Ellsbury, just as it would for the Sox to do so.  But Seattle is not a small market team.  They are capable of having a payroll of over $110 million.  They have a lot of young talent starting to come up.  And they need to make a splash to placate their fan base.  This would do it. 

    If the Mariners made this trade and signed Fielder, their lineup could look like this

    RF - Ichiro
    2B - Ackely
    CF - Ellsbury
    1B/DH- Fielder
    DH/1B - Smoak
    LF - Carp
    C - Olivo
    SS - Ryan
    3B - Figgins

    With their pitching, this could be an offense good enough to win some games.  A little too left-handed, but that is a plus at Safeco.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : There are some reasons to trade Ellsbury. 1) He is only signed for 2 more years, and will hit free agency , unlike Lester and Pedroia, who have signed extensions.  Ellsbury is very unlikely to sign an extension; its not the Scott Boras Way. 2) His value is very unlikely to ever be higher. 3) The Sox have OF depth at his positon, but are very thin in others (PITCHING!!!) that he could be dealt for. 4) If the Sox actually want a good pitcher, they are not going to get one for a package of Lars Anderson and Jed Lowrie.  Quality has to be invoved. Also, he is 28, not 23.  28 is not really baseball youth. THere are also good reasons to keep Ellsbury and then let him walk.  It's very possible his next two years will be the best two he has left (health permitting).  Then let him walk and let someone else overpay for his decline....
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    I agree 100%. I am not saying to trade him, or not to trade him.  But if the Sox feel they should, this is a deal to get some quality young arms.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    People are always disappointed by pur prospects because they never pan out.

    Except Ellsbury has gone from prospect to one of the best seasons any leadoff hitter has ever had.

    And now we want to trade him? 

    Makes no sense.

    he needs to be signed to a long term contract - there won't be any better players available via FA when his time comes.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    You are missing the point. You Sox fans want to always trade away talent when its at it potential highest. How is the team going to get better if it keeps trading away its talent year in and year out? And if you trade him, who's to say those guys will fit the Sox organization. How well did bringing in last years talent work out for the Sox? No time for team chemistry when constantly trading away players. Maybe Ells gives them best chance to get back to a world series again in 2 years Notin.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Correct thought process. Additional blocked prospects and current active roster members can be added to make your idea work for both teams.  
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In response to "Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?": [QUOTE]the only way i would trade ellsbury to the mariners is if felix hernandez is the guy i would be getting from them. not pineda.  Posted by redsoxpride34[/QUOTE] Yip. My thought exactly, and even then I'd be hesitant.
     
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