Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I doubt the Mariners would trade five years of Michael Pineda, perhaps not even six years of Taijuan Walker, for two years of Jacoby Ellsbury, a Scott Boras client who will likely test the free agent market after the 2013 season.

    Two years ago, I doubt the Mariners would have traded centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, coming off a 6.3 WAR season, for same-aged centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coming off a 2.5 WAR season.

    Ellsbury may or may not maintain his value as the outfielder approaches free agency at age 30.

    Will Ellsbury's career resemble that of Darin Erstad, whose 2000 season rivals Ellsbury's 2011 season (although Erstad was nearly two years younger)?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11&position=1B/OF

    I don't agree with this suggestion, but here is a Seattle blog from a few weeks ago:

    http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=374&sid=581345
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from oleme. Show oleme's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Ellsbury is going to end up in Arizona.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Justin Upton would be nice, for Ellsbury, Lowrie, Brentz and other blocked prospects.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

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    That would be nice. What Darren Lewis center-fielder are out there? That is what we need, just like short-stop, a gold glove caliber fair hitting player to replace Elles (providing Upton is the acquired).
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Do you have any doubt that Ellsbury trade value will free fall after 2011 career year? Trade the windfall, or window will close. Crawford has the parking place Ellsbury wants.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

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    Who is going to play center? I want a glove and arm in center epecially if I can add power in RF with a guy like McCutchen or Upton.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Kalish or Reddick can play center at near zero cost.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Depends upon what you want to see from the Boston Red Sox in 2012,
    Gutierrez doesn't hit.
    A combination of Reddick and Kalish in CF and RF, or vice versa is turning the shop over to players who have yet to prove they are consistent ML players. One of them in RF is enough.
    Crawford will stay in left.
    IMO, Ellsbury right where he is gives the Sox the best chance to win as far as the lineup is concerned. Maybe he'll be traded down the road. Maybe he'll walk. Slim chance but maybe he'll sign an extension or be signed by the Sox as a FA. As of this moment, he's the best all-around player on the team. That's a fact. Another fact is that no one can predict how he'll perform in 2012. i think it's pointless to speculate about regression, even though the arithmetic ( which is pretty crude ) predicts that he will. He might even have a better year.
    It offends common sense to trade the current best player on the basis of a predicted regression or his departure in the future. I go with Occam's Razor on this one rather than with convoluted speculative reasoning. 
    Leave this one alone, Ben, and fix the pitching some other way.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

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    I think a trade next off-season is a must but not now. The Sox need to take the risk that Elles will only stay as good as he was in 2011. No reason to believe he won't come close.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Ellsbury won’t be a free agent for two years, giving the Red Sox two years of service and an opportunity to resign him before he hits the open market. However I am of the opinion that he has little to no interest in resigning with Boston. It makes sense to make him available after this coming season (to a team on the west coast) that has a chance of resigning him. If his numbers are good this year he should bring a good starting pitcher and a top prospect in return a year from now. With the current ownership’s other interests taking precedence over winning baseball in Boston, Ellsbury may never see a legitimate contract offer from Boston anyway.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Ellesbury: see Papelbon.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    As of this moment, he's the best all-around player on the team. That's a fact

    No, that is an opinion. Last season is over. Take the last 2 or 3 seasons to determine who the best player on the team is. 

    It isn't about whether Kalish or Reddick, both quite adequate in earlier MLB stints, are proven. With Crawford contract and current roster and players current and near future value and fit, it is about what the Red Sox get back in a trade. 

    Ellsbury trade value free falls from post winter, just as rapidly as it climbed, due to years of control, cost to FA, cost post FA, and career median averages.  
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]I doubt the Mariners would trade five years of Michael Pineda, perhaps not even six years of Taijuan Walker, for two years of Jacoby Ellsbury, a Scott Boras client who will likely test the free agent market after the 2013 season. Two years ago, I doubt the Mariners would have traded centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, coming off a 6.3 WAR season, for same-aged centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coming off a 2.5 WAR season. Ellsbury may or may not maintain his value as the outfielder approaches free agency at age 30. Will Ellsbury's career resemble that of Darin Erstad, whose 2000 season rivals Ellsbury's 2011 season (although Erstad was nearly two years younger)? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11&position=1B/OF I don't agree with this suggestion, but here is a Seattle blog from a few weeks ago: http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=374&sid=581345
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Hill55,
    If the Marniers signed Fielder, it signals that they want to speed up the rebuild and they might lack confidence in Smoak's ability to be the middle of order run producer they'd hope.

    That said, if they do sign Prince, then they might consider moving Pineda, Guitirez and a prospect for Ellsbury. Just not sure the Sox would take that deal. You're above opin sites Erstad's fall from grace after a career year as a caution for the M's aquisition of Ellsbury. I would counter that the Sox would have to take a leap of faith with Pineda too, who might be the next Fausto Carmona?

    so if Pineda is the prize, Guitirez would be the value add, though he is a gold glove CF, alibiet an oft injured player, he hasn't hit in two years, didn't in the years previuls. Given his salary my guess is the M's would gladly move him in deal to aquire a talant like Ellsbury. The question then would be would it take more than Pineda and Guitirez to aquire Ellsbury...



     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]Kalish or Reddick can play center at near zero cost.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    I doubt Ellsbury will be moved for the reasons many have stated (only 2 years left) but if Reddick/Kalish/Westmoreland had been dominant last year?
     
    I'm sure Westmoreland is thrilled to be doing as well as he is.  If Westmoreland never had his terrible luck (Kalish a bit too) imagine what could have been. 

    CC would be an Angel?


    Ryan Westmoreland, 2008 – fifth round, 172nd overall pick
    Ryan Westmoreland is one of the more tragic stories in recent Sox memory.    A five-tool player, Westmoreland looked like a star in the making, a center fielder who could run, field, and hit for both contact and power with a solid batting eye.

    If only 2012/13 looked like this:
    LF   Ellsbury
    CF   Westmoreland
    RF   Kalish/Reddick winner

    or move Ells for a need (RH-OF) and go with the young guns. 

    Good luck RW!
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from bigdog1. Show bigdog1's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    If I am trading Elsbury I would go after a RH stud that can play RF, UPTON!
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Correct thought process, Bigdog.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : Pike I like this! I couldn't have said it better myself. What's the world coming to? I've agreed with you TWICE tonight. "Worlds are colliding". Trade Ellsbury? No, no, and then when all things are considered--NO.
    Posted by TheExaminer[/QUOTE]
    Pike's original post and your liking it are pure and simple bigotry regardless of whether you are referring to Softlaw's opinion regarding Ellsbury, and I have never read one of his posts using the words Pike did, although I realize he hates Ells, or whether your are attempting and utterly failing to be humorous (See the many broadcasters who have been fired for similar comments about athletes). There is no place on this or any other forum for this kind of bigotry.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]As of this moment, he's the best all-around player on the team. That's a fact No, that is an opinion. Last season is over. Take the last 2 or 3 seasons to determine who the best player on the team is.  It isn't about whether Kalish or Reddick, both quite adequate in earlier MLB stints, are proven. With Crawford contract and current roster and players current and near future value and fit, it is about what the Red Sox get back in a trade.  Ellsbury trade value free falls from post winter, just as rapidly as it climbed, due to years of control, cost to FA, cost post FA, and career median averages.  
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
    2010 doesn't count for Ellsbury. In 2011 he was the best all-around performer on the team. He is the reigning best performer, on the empirical record.
    Two-thirds of an outfield as "adequate," if even that holds, is not sufficient, especially since Crawford, the other third, has yet to show that he has the goods in Boston.
    Anyone ready for an outfield of Crawford, Kalish, Reddick?
    Boston needs Ellsbury in the outfield now. He will probably be traded, sooner or later. At that time, the other interested team(s) will decide what his trade value is to them, including what it would cost to retain him as he approaches FA or becomes a FA. It cannot be said with certainty that his trade value "free falls"
    ( severe language here ) post winter, because all the organizations, their needs, their resources ( money and personnel ), and, in general, their leverage cannot be known, obviously, at this point; nor, for that mater, can what Ellsbury will do on the field in 2012. 
    That will be in centerfield for the Boston Red Sox.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : Hill55, If the Marniers signed Fielder, it signals that they want to speed up the rebuild and they might lack confidence in Smoak's ability to be the middle of order run producer they'd hope. That said, if they do sign Prince, then they might consider moving Pineda, Guitirez and a prospect for Ellsbury. Just not sure the Sox would take that deal. You're above opin sites Erstad's fall from grace after a career year as a caution for the M's aquisition of Ellsbury. I would counter that the Sox would have to take a leap of faith with Pineda too, who might be the next Fausto Carmona? so if Pineda is the prize, Guitirez would be the value add, though he is a gold glove CF, alibiet an oft injured player, he hasn't hit in two years, didn't in the years previuls. Given his salary my guess is the M's would gladly move him in deal to aquire a talant like Ellsbury. The question then would be would it take more than Pineda and Guitirez to aquire Ellsbury...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]
    In the unlikely event Seattle signs Prince Fielder, I could see the Mariners trading Michael Pineda for a more established big bat, not Jacoby Ellsbury who posted one fabulous career year* in the season he turned 28 years of age.

    I've written that Jacoby Ellsbury could be Boston's top trade candidate because the Red Sox would be trading when Ellsbury's value is high. From Seattle's perspective, the Mariners should avoid trading for Ellsbury because his value might be overinflated.

    With the buy-low philosophy in mind, the Mariners could target a player such as Hanley Ramirez, who remains under his team's control for three expensive years coming off a disappointing season. Better targets might be Joey Votto (who like Ellsbury remains under his team's control for two years) or Jay Bruce (who remains under his team's control for five years with an option for a sixth year).

    * I still draw comparisons between Ellsbury and centerfielder Darin Erstad, another lefthand-hitting, Gold Glove-winning, former first-round pick out of a Division I university after starring as a small-town all-around athlete (Ellsbury from Madras, Oregon, and Erstad from Jamestown, North Dakota).
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThunderCat2010. Show ThunderCat2010's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I like Ellsbury but he should trade because the Red Sox are EVIL!!! Very Bad Team!!! I want Ellsbury join the Yankees or any MLB Teams. We hate the Red Sox!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Ells, Lowrie, and Bard for Pineda, Furbish, Figgins, Brandon League and Casper Wells. 

    I realize we are giving a great deal however we need two starters--Pineda and Furbush can do that, we need a closer or set up, League can do that and we need an outfielder capable of playing RF or platooning--Wells can do that.

    That frees up Aceves to stay in the pen as a closer or set-up with then three closer options in Aceves, League and Jenks.

    Figgins could be a cheap 3 b option if the M's eat half his salary In addition a good replacement for Youk if he's traded.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : In the unlikely event Seattle signs Prince Fielder, I could see the Mariners trading Michael Pineda for a more established big bat , not Jacoby Ellsbury who posted one fabulous career year* in the season he turned 28 years of age. I've written that Jacoby Ellsbury could be Boston's top trade candidate because the Red Sox would be trading when Ellsbury's value is high. From Seattle's perspective, the Mariners should avoid trading for Ellsbury because his value might be overinflated. With the buy-low philosophy in mind, the Mariners could target a player such as Hanley Ramirez, who remains under his team's control for three expensive years coming off a disappointing season. Better targets might be Joey Votto (who like Ellsbury remains under his team's control for two years) or Jay Bruce (who remains under his team's control for five years with an option for a sixth year). * I still draw comparisons between Ellsbury and centerfielder Darin Erstad, another lefthand-hitting, Gold Glove-winning, former first-round pick out of a Division I university after starring as a small-town all-around athlete (Ellsbury from Madras, Oregon, and Erstad from Jamestown, North Dakota).
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Thanks for the previous link and your insights hill. I just get bits and pieces on the radio as I only have a 10 minute commute to work, and this must have been what Calabro was talking about. Brandon League was the other name mentioned, yes.  I respect your opinions on the Mariners as you follow them more closely than I.

    I don't think the Mariners make this kind of a trade unless they sign Fielder.  Personally, I don't think signing Fielder is not enough by itself.  And making a trade must be something that helps the future as well as now.  Hanley Ramirez makes the most sense to me, if it fits with the Marlins. 

    I don't think the
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]Depends upon what you want to see from the Boston Red Sox in 2012, Gutierrez doesn't hit. A combination of Reddick and Kalish in CF and RF, or vice versa is turning the shop over to players who have yet to prove they are consistent ML players. One of them in RF is enough. Crawford will stay in left. IMO, Ellsbury right where he is gives the Sox the best chance to win as far as the lineup is concerned. Maybe he'll be traded down the road. Maybe he'll walk. Slim chance but maybe he'll sign an extension or be signed by the Sox as a FA. As of this moment, he's the best all-around player on the team. That's a fact. Another fact is that no one can predict how he'll perform in 2012. i think it's pointless to speculate about regression, even though the arithmetic ( which is pretty crude ) predicts that he will. He might even have a better year. It offends common sense to trade the current best player on the basis of a predicted regression or his departure in the future. I go with Occam's Razor on this one rather than with convoluted speculative reasoning.  Leave this one alone, Ben, and fix the pitching some other way.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    I agree that the Sox need to fix the pitching, that is why an Ellsbury trade makes sense if it is to fix the pitching.  The Sox offense does not live and die with Ellsbury, so I don't think the offense takes too big a hit.  If they get a CF like Gutierrez back, the defense is still there. Yes, the offense is better with Ellsbury than without, but will the team be better with more pitching depth, quality young pitchers? That is the deal that should be made if it can be. 

    As for Ellsbury being the best all-around player on the team, that is an opinion, not fact.  You have the right to that opinion, and based on last year have stats to back it up.  Right now I would say he is the third best player behind Gonzalez and Pedroia.  But, that is also just an opinion.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The idea of trading Jacoby makes a lot of sense, if we are able to upgrade our pitching staff considerably. The odds are very slight that jacoby will be hre after 2013. I wouldn't trade him just for the sake of getting rid of him, but his value is very high right now.

    Maybe we can pry a couple pitchers from the Braves of Giants.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    2010 doesn't count for Ellsbury.

    Sure it does. Every full season counts. Part of player value is average games played.


    In 2011 he was the best all-around performer on the team. He is the reigning best performer, on the empirical record.

    Long list of performers who had one career year way out of line with averages. I would like to see his numbers in the 3 spot, where the true best performer was situated. A player who plays with injuries before FA contract years, vs one who does not.

    And if reigning best performer means anything, it carries with it the face of a loser. Ellsbury was and is not the answer to improving the Red Sox, particularly since InEpstein signed Crawford. 

    Two-thirds of an outfield as "adequate," if even that holds, is not sufficient, especially since Crawford, the other third, has yet to show that he has the goods in Boston.
    Anyone ready for an outfield of Crawford, Kalish, Reddick?
    Boston needs Ellsbury in the outfield now. He will probably be traded, sooner or later.

    You ignore Crawford's career averaegs and what Ellsbury nets in trade.

    Red Sox do not need Ellsbury for 2012 and beyond, anymore than they needed to pay 142M for Crawford. Red Sox need:

    A. Top tier Starting pitching (Ellsbury will not net that)

    B. Talented young RH OF (Ellsbury will net that)

    C. 2nd tier pitching staff depth (Ellsbury will net that)

    Pretty obvious that the trade to make is an NL trade for Hanley or Upton, now that Kemp has his parking space reserved. Ellsbury plus Lowrie plus blocked prospects is the trade to make this winter. Clear as a bell.

     

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