Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

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    [QUOTE]I think we are getting a little overly concerned that somebody might leave as a free agent after two more years.  A lot of things can happen in two years.    Why not try to focus on putting together a team that can win in 2012?  I understand the Sox' salary problems , but if this club drops to fourth or fifth place , there will be some very disgruntled fans.  Melancon is no Papelbon , and mediocrities like Shoppach and Punto are not going to be much help.  Trading Ellsbury would be a major gamble. I think we are getting a little carried away with some of these trade scenarios.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    You took the words right out of my mouth. Bravo. You aren't such a bad guy after all. Worrying about Ellsbury right now is like buying a new car and debating whether you should trade it in before the ashtray gets full. I don't get it. I guess that the forum is loaded with types who are always chasing a problem.
     
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    [QUOTE]I think we are getting a little overly concerned that somebody might leave as a free agent after two more years.  A lot of things can happen in two years.    Why not try to focus on putting together a team that can win in 2012?  I understand the Sox' salary problems , but if this club drops to fourth or fifth place , there will be some very disgruntled fans.  Melancon is no Papelbon , and mediocrities like Shoppach and Punto are not going to be much help.  Trading Ellsbury would be a major gamble. I think we are getting a little carried away with some of these trade scenarios.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    I agree, the Sox as currently constituted are definitely a serious contender to win the title in 2012/13 which is why I want Ellsbury kept. But the fact is the Sox, every other team, and everyone else in the world knows that Ellsbury's agent (based on past performance) is VERY unlikely to allow him to NOT go to free agency.  Which - combined with his likely huge arbitration salary this year and next - his trade value is relatively low. He's no longer a bargain for us or anyone else, he's a high-performing, highly paid star.  We're not getting Michael Pineda for him, not unless we massively sweeten the pot.





     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : You took the words right out of my mouth. Bravo. You aren't such a bad guy after all. Worrying about Ellsbury right now is like buying a new car and debating whether you should trade it in before the ashtray gets full. I don't get it. I guess that the forum is loaded with types who are always chasing a problem.
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]
    Possibly the first time you ever had anything good to say about one of my posts.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : Possibly the first time you ever had anything good to say about one of my posts.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    Actually outside of the gamethreads your posts make a lot of sense quite often. It might be my fault that I can't handle the the gamethread style. Many others avoid the gamethreads and apparently so should I.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    Talk about trading Ellsbury for "quality young arms" ignores the fact that baseball history is replete with quality young arms for whom a ML mound was a Druidical burying ground. The Sox themselves are not absent from that history. As of now, Kelly for SD has not been that impressive. ( Maybe he not Iglesias should have been ticketed as "the shortstop of the future." ) Nor so far has Renaudo. Here in LA, the Dodgers have had a few "can't miss" misses on the mound. 
    Top quality proven young arms who are available should always spark interest. The GMs take it from there. None of us knows where. 
    If Boston's front three do not stay healthy and register successful seasons, it won't make no never mind who is 4 and 5. If they do well and Bard is reasonably effective as a starter, Boston could get by with Molly Potts at 5. The pen needs sorting out and a few "in case of injury" starters may be in the picture. But they will not tip the scales one way or the other.
    In short, Boston must pitch well at the top for a full season, or 2012 figures to be not a heckuva lot happier at the end than was 2011. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]Let's see... what do second-tier teams do?  They trade their proven stars at the height of their performance (because their value is high) for someone whom they hope will make their team better.  Trade a known quantity for a "hope". That sounds like a recipe to me - a recipe for becoming a second-tier team.  Here's a thought;  What if last year WASN'T his best year?  What if he has two more years just as good as last year? Ya know what you've got.  Hold onto him for at least one more year, then see what happens. 
    Posted by S5[/QUOTE]
    Good sense spoken here.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from practial. Show practial's posts

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    I am getting SICK of these trade Ellsbury issues.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

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    [QUOTE]People are always disappointed by pur prospects because they never pan out. Except Ellsbury has gone from prospect to one of the best seasons any leadoff hitter has ever had. And now we want to trade him?  Makes no sense. he needs to be signed to a long term contract - there won't be any better players available via FA when his time comes.
    Posted by Schumpeters-Ghost[/QUOTE]

    Our prospects never pan out?  Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Papelbon, Buchholz, Lester, Bard?

    Did you mean to say 'they always pan out'?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

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    You are missing the point. You Sox fans want to always trade away talent when its at it potential highest. How is the team going to get better if it keeps trading away its talent year in and year out?

    We don't trade our talent year in and year out.  We trade off the pieces that don't fit or aren't advancing.  We actually trade off almost no one.

    How many fulltime starters are there in the league from Boston, that we traded?
     
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    [QUOTE]I think we are getting a little overly concerned that somebody might leave as a free agent after two more years.  A lot of things can happen in two years.    Why not try to focus on putting together a team that can win in 2012?  I understand the Sox' salary problems , but if this club drops to fourth or fifth place , there will be some very disgruntled fans.  Melancon is no Papelbon , and mediocrities like Shoppach and Punto are not going to be much help.  Trading Ellsbury would be a major gamble. I think we are getting a little carried away with some of these trade scenarios.
    Posted by dgalehouse[/QUOTE]

    1-In two years, if we manage to outbid the NYY for him, he will no longer be an asset.  By definition, a market priced player is a neutral player.  Even re-signing him would be a gamble.  He'll be 30 in his first year of free agency.  That's not quite a kid.

    2-I don't want to be good just in 2012.  I want to always be good.  If I get the better part of the deal, then I'd be willing to be slightly worse ffor two years, and then a good bit better for four years.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : 1-In two years, if we manage to outbid the NYY for him, he will no longer be an asset.  By definition, a market priced player is a neutral player.  Even re-signing him would be a gamble.  He'll be 30 in his first year of free agency.  That's not quite a kid. 2-I don't want to be good just in 2012.  I want to always be good.  If I get the better part of the deal, then I'd be willing to be slightly worse ffor two years, and then a good bit better for four years.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]
    One man's 30 is not another man's 30.
    Point 2 is X and O chatter. Locker room theory. You'd have to wait four years to see whether you got the better part of the deal.
    By whose definition? A man who performs at a high level on the field is not a "neutral player," save perhaps to bookkeepers.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Wouldn't we all really have to hear what the deal could be before deciding if we thought it was worth it? Since Boston is not likely shopping Jacoby, I doubt we will hear any offers until maybe next winter (or this July if we are 15 GB).

    To just say "don't trade Jacoby" neglects the chance to better this team now and or in the future. The flip side, "trade Jacoby now at all cost" is short-sighted as well. 2 years of close to 2011 numbers is worth a whole lot these days. Unless we are looking at packing in 2012, I don't us dealing Ellsbury this winter. There's merit in this idea, but Sox management would...
    1) Never admit to this plan even if they implemented it.
    2) Not likely choose this option for fear of losing revenue (mostly from TV viewership).

    If they did decide to shoot for 2013 or 2014, there are several other players who would become part of the fire sale (Youk, Scutty, Dice-K and anyone else with a contract expiring within 2 years)

    I think this team still has a good shot at being there next season. Just better health could be enough, but I think a few more tweaks would put us in the top 6 category to make the WS (NYY, LAA, TEX, TB, DET and us).


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : One man's 30 is not another man's 30. Point 2 is X and O chatter. Locker room theory. You'd have to wait four years to see whether you got the better part of the deal. By whose definition? A man who performs at a high level on the field is not a "neutral player," save perhaps to bookkeepers.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]
    BTW, since when are the next two years not part of "always"?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]Wouldn't we all really have to hear what the deal could be before deciding if we thought it was worth it? Since Boston is not likely shopping Jacoby, I doubt we will hear any offers until maybe next winter (or this July if we are 15 GB). To just say "don't trade Jacoby" neglects the chance to better this team now and or in the future. The flip side, "trade Jacoby now at all cost" is short-sighted as well. 2 years of close to 2011 numbers is worth a whole lot these days. Unless we are looking at packing in 2012, I don't us dealing Ellsbury this winter. There's merit in this idea, but Sox management would... 1) Never admit to this plan even if they implemented it. 2) Not likely choose this option for fear of losing revenue (mostly from TV viewership). If they did decide to shoot for 2013 or 2014, there are several other players who would become part of the fire sale (Youk, Scutty, Dice-K and anyone else with a contract expiring within 2 years) I think this team still has a good shot at being there next season. Just better health could be enough, but I think a few more tweaks would put us in the top 6 category to make the WS (NYY, LAA, TEX, TB, DET and us).
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE
    It isn't a matter of simply "hearing about" the deal. It's more a matter of seeing how it works out. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Of course, but much of this speculation about what we might get for him is probably impossible scenarios to begin with. A few are beyond absurdity.

    My point was that it is hard for me to give my opinion on trading Ellsbury without knowing who we could realistically get. I know I could end up being wrong in hindsight 4 years from now, just like I was on the Ellsbury, Masterson, & Lowrie for Santana deal years ago, but at least we knew then roughly what might have been, and can judge now (pretty much) the results.
     
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    [QUOTE]Of course, but much of this speculation about what we might get for him is probably impossible scenarios to begin with. A few are beyond absurdity. My point was that it is hard for me to give my opinion on trading Ellsbury without knowing who we could realistically get. I know I could end up being wrong in hindsight 4 years from now, just like I was on the Ellsbury, Masterson, & Lowrie for Santana deal years ago, but at least we knew then roughly what might have been, and can judge now (pretty much) the results.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    I have no problem with comments after a deal is made, as long as the tone is not more authoritative than the future tense will permit. Baseball is notoriously unpredictable.
    Trading Ellsbury now, even for a pedigreed pitcher, would leave other gaps. That's why I asked whether you'd be satisfied with Crawford/Kalish/Reddick/
    McDonald, and who would lead off. It's beginning to look like the Sox are not willing to pay for any of the outfielders now on the hoof. That would be OK if Ellsbury stays in place, and McDonald chips in some production against lefties -- and no balls are hit to him in RF. 
    No, Gutierrez in a trade including pitchers won't do. You mentioned the Braves and the Giants. What pitchers, if available, would you accept from one of these teams in a swap for Ellsbury, considering other problems his departure would create?

    I also mentioned in an earlier post that Ellsbury might be traded if the Sox are stumbling all over the place at mid-season. This seems like a long shot.
    As I said elsewhere, IF the three guys up front pitch, Boston should be in the mix. They need to start going 7+. IMO, that issue will be decisive.

     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : In the unlikely event Seattle signs Prince Fielder, I could see the Mariners trading Michael Pineda for a more established big bat , not Jacoby Ellsbury who posted one fabulous career year* in the season he turned 28 years of age. I've written that Jacoby Ellsbury could be Boston's top trade candidate because the Red Sox would be trading when Ellsbury's value is high. From Seattle's perspective, the Mariners should avoid trading for Ellsbury because his value might be overinflated. With the buy-low philosophy in mind, the Mariners could target a player such as Hanley Ramirez, who remains under his team's control for three expensive years coming off a disappointing season. Better targets might be Joey Votto (who like Ellsbury remains under his team's control for two years) or Jay Bruce (who remains under his team's control for five years with an option for a sixth year). * I still draw comparisons between Ellsbury and centerfielder Darin Erstad, another lefthand-hitting, Gold Glove-winning, former first-round pick out of a Division I university after starring as a small-town all-around athlete (Ellsbury from Madras, Oregon, and Erstad from Jamestown, North Dakota).
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Hill55,

    Given the competition in the division and the current state of the M's roster. I don't see them being players in the market today. I differ with you on the value of Ellsbury playing in Safeco but agree they'd likely pass on aquiring him. IMHO Pineda is a critical piece of their rebuliding effort in that with he and Hernandez fronting thier rotation makes them a legit middle of the rotation starter away from having a playoff worthy rotation. I'm still puzzled by the trade of Fister who was under their control through 2015...That said, the road to respectability lies in continueing to upgrade their every day position players and specifically the middle of the order...I do see them as being players in the 2014-15 FA markets if Akely and Smoak deliver...
     
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    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : I have no problem with comments after a deal is made, as long as the tone is not more authoritative than the future tense will permit. Baseball is notoriously unpredictable. Trading Ellsbury now, even for a pedigreed pitcher, would leave other gaps. That's why I asked whether you'd be satisfied with Crawford/Kalish/Reddick/ McDonald, and who would lead off. It's beginning to look like the Sox are not willing to pay for any of the outfielders now on the hoof. That would be OK if Ellsbury stays in place, and McDonald chips in some production against lefties -- and no balls are hit to him in RF.  No, Gutierrez in a trade including pitchers won't do. You mentioned the Braves and the Giants. What pitchers, if available, would you accept from one of these teams in a swap for Ellsbury, considering other problems his departure would create? I also mentioned in an earlier post that Ellsbury might be traded if the Sox are stumbling all over the place at mid-season. This seems like a long shot. As I said elsewhere, IF the three guys up front pitch, Boston should be in the mix. They need to start going 7+. IMO, that issue will be decisive.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]


    You have to trade him to a team that thinks they can sign him if they give up quality players--perhaps Ells/Boras would give Ben five teams he might be willing to sign a long term deal with.
    I would ask for Cain or Lincecum from the Giants.
    The Braves have so many good young guys, Ben would know the best plus Bourn.
    The Angels I would go for Santana, Walden and Bourjos.
    The D'Backs--Upton.
    The Cubs for Castro and Garza.
    The Rangers, one of their best young stud pitchers, a pitching prospect and David Murphy.
    The Phils Worley and their spark-plug CFielder.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    30 million dollars for Crawford and Ellsbury is nothing short of idiocy. Money needs to spent on needs/fit:
     
    1. Top tier starting pitcher (Ellsbury will not net that for obvious reason)

    2. Top young RH OFer (Ellsbury will net that)

    3. 2nd tier Starting pitcher or pen arm (Ellsbury plus blocked prospect will net 2 and 3)

    Spend the 8 to 10M on Ellsbury towards above team needs. 
     
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    [QUOTE]30 million dollars for Crawford and Ellsbury is nothing short of idiocy. Money needs to spent on needs/fit:   1. Top tier starting pitcher (Ellsbury will not net that for obvious reason) 2. Top young RH OFer (Ellsbury will net that) 3. 2nd tier Starting pitcher or pen arm (Ellsbury plus blocked prospect will net 2 and 3) Spend the 8 to 10M on Ellsbury towards above team needs. 
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    Are you trying to say that top tier pitching is > top tier hitting????

    If so Ellsbury packaged up with a pitching prospect should net a pitcher right???
    It's not like pitchers aren't traded for position players ever, it happens all the time. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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     have no problem with comments after a deal is made, as long as the tone is not more authoritative than the future tense will permit. Baseball is notoriously unpredictable.

    Ain't that the truth!  Even the Beckett/Lowell for HanRam/A.Sanchez deal now looks different than it did after 2007's ring.

    Trading Ellsbury now, even for a pedigreed pitcher, would leave other gaps. That's why I asked whether you'd be satisfied with Crawford/Kalish/Reddick/McDonald.

    Not really, but if we added Cody Ross or the like, and we got guys like Tommy Hanson and Eric O'Flaherty for Ellsbury, Salty and Bowden 
    or straight up Matt Cain (with an extension), I'd seriously consider it (I'd love to get Romo with the deal, but thats not likely). 

    ...and who would lead off. 

    I suppose Crawford or Scutty. Look, I realize our offense would take a huge hit losing Jacoby, but I think our offense would still be near the top without him. Our pitching won't unless we do something major.

    It's beginning to look like the Sox are not willing to pay for any of the outfielders now on the hoof. That would be OK if Ellsbury stays in place, and McDonald chips in some production against lefties -- and no balls are hit to him in RF. 
    No, Gutierrez in a trade including pitchers won't do. You mentioned the Braves and the Giants. What pitchers, if available, would you accept from one of these teams in a swap for Ellsbury, considering other problems his departure would create?

    See above.

    I also mentioned in an earlier post that Ellsbury might be traded if the Sox are stumbling all over the place at mid-season. This seems like a long shot.
    As I said elsewhere, IF the three guys up front pitch, Boston should be in the mix. They need to start going 7+. IMO, that issue will be decisive.

    Agreed.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Some posters keep saying that Ellsbury's trade value is at its highest right now, and say let's move him before he regresses ( how much? ) or goes in "free fall"
    ( absurd ).  If people here have those reservations about Ellsbury's future, it's a good bet that GM's will wait and see before they pack up and send to Boston a hot commodity in exchange for him. As far as we know, Ben is not shopping the man, and GM's are not inquiring about him. Why would they think that Boston is itching or even willing to trade their best performer of the moment, unless to skim off the top of their rosters?  Or their best prospects. 
    Ellsbury will again be on display in Fenway Park and around the league. He will be closely observed by a lot of people. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    But why would anybody want to trade Els
    buuurrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
    ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from lhtak. Show lhtak's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I am all for trading Ellsbury now if we can get someone like King in return. Three reasons for this; 1) I think Ells reached his plateau in terms of his performance. 2) Once he gets to free agency he is not going to be signed by the SOx; we are going to lose him anyways. 3) He has Mr. Boras as his agent. Nothing less to the caliber of King though.
     
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    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    The thread is this.

     
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