Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : One man's 30 is not another man's 30. Point 2 is X and O chatter. Locker room theory. You'd have to wait four years to see whether you got the better part of the deal. By whose definition? A man who performs at a high level on the field is not a "neutral player," save perhaps to bookkeepers.
    Posted by expitch


    Sure, he could be a good 30 or bad 30.  That always the case.

    And yes, I cannot predict the future.  I don't know that any trade could be good.  We could trade Reddck for Prado, and either could go and hit 30 HRs.  You make the decision based on the best information you currently have.

    BB is the ultimate bookkeeper sport.  You need to get more per $ spent.  $20M spent on Crawford is $20M that cannot be spent elsewhere.  Instead of $20M on CC, had we just signed Willingham for $7M, we'd have $13M for Buerhle for example.  Would you prefer CC and Miller or Willingham and Buerhle?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Talk about trading Ellsbury for "quality young arms" ignores the fact that baseball history is replete with quality young arms for whom a ML mound was a Druidical burying ground. The Sox themselves are not absent from that history. As of now, Kelly for SD has not been that impressive. ( Maybe he not Iglesias should have been ticketed as "the shortstop of the future." ) Nor so far has Renaudo. Here in LA, the Dodgers have had a few "can't miss" misses on the mound. 

    I'm not sure it's an appropriate comparison.  Kelly topped off at #24 at age 19 in A+.  Pineda topped off at #16 in AAA at age 21, and has already had an excellent ML season on his resume.

    Would you trade 2 years of Ellsbury for 6 years of Matt Moore?  Or Strasbourg +?  Bryce Harper?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : Sure, he could be a good 30 or bad 30.  That always the case. And yes, I cannot predict the future.  I don't know that any trade could be good.  We could trade Reddck for Prado, and either could go and hit 30 HRs.  You make the decision based on the best information you currently have. BB is the ultimate bookkeeper sport.  You need to get more per $ spent.  $20M spent on Crawford is $20M that cannot be spent elsewhere.  Instead of $20M on CC, had we just signed Willingham for $7M, we'd have $13M for Buerhle for example.  Would you prefer CC and Miller or Willingham and Buerhle?
    Posted by Joebreidey
    You're making my point. The Sox thought they were getting their money's worth, or nearly their money's worth, when they signed Crawford, however they chose to define "money's worth."  Apparently, they were wrong.
    Who would have played leftfield last year? Willingham was under contract. You're assuming the Sox would have gone after Buerhle and for the length of the contract he just signed with the money they "would have saved."
    At least this time you filled in the X's and O's with names. But you're doing funny money in the abstract, and you're posing a hypothesis for which there isn't anything to go on.
    Sports with salary caps are the ultimate bookkeeping ones. All businesses are bookkeeping ones. "Let's see, if I add a wing to the shop, I won't be able to afford a new truck." At home: "I know you kids want to take a trip from North Dakota to Disneyland. But for that kind of money, we can spend several days longer at a national park."
    It's always the same. You spend money on this now, you don't have money to buy that ( and perhaps the other thing too ) later.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Will Crawford be a bust for the next six years? When did that summation come out? Was it from Moses up on the mountain? It is amazing that so many on the forum have zero patience.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Will Crawford be a bust for the next six years? When did that summation come out? Was it from Moses up on the mountain? It is amazing that so many on the forum have zero patience.

    I was against the signing from the start saying CC was nothing more than a "glorified platoon player" and that his contract woulr "cripple us for 7 years". I was not basing that on a projection that he would have such an awful season as he did in 2011; instead, I based it on the fact that even if he had 7 seasons just like 2010 or somewhere between his 2010 season and his career norm, the deal was still a $50M overpay.

    I happen to believe he will bounce back next year and give us a season close to 2010. He will help us win several games. I just think the money could have been spent more wisely. I don't hold it against Crawford. He's a hard-working player. I saw a story on him down here in Houston about his off-season work-out regime. He puts in the effort and is in tremendous shape. 

    Maybe he'll put up a season greater than 2010 and end up earning close to what he is being paid. I hope I eat my words, and I'd be glad to have to come on this forum and claim I was wrong about the deal.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I apologize for not having read every post--my thought--Trade CC for Werth.
    We need a RF, CC might need another start in a warmer climate in a different league away from Bobby V.

    It's just a trade for comparable value--the money is close--might help both teams.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    I apologize for not having read every post--my thought--Trade CC for Werth. We need a RF, CC might need another start in a warmer climate in a different league away from Bobby V. It's just a trade for comparable value--the money is close--might help both teams.
    Posted by MadMc44


    No, we don't need a rightfielder, not even a righty one.  Without one last year, the Sox had the best hitting lineup (most runs scored, highest OPS) in MLB.  The focus right now needs to be on pitching.  I applaud the possibility that Bard or Aceves could start because buying or trading for a good starter who actually delivers hasn't happened too often for the Sox.

    As for trading Ellsbury, I doubt that the Sox would get fair value for him--at least if Cherington thinks like most contributors to this thread, including you. 

    He was only the AL MVP this year among position players as well as the Sox MVP (although AGon deserves serious consideration for that).  If he can deliver anything near this year in 2012, he will help the Sox win the AL East, etc.  provided the pitching improves over 2011. 

    As Moonslav says, acquiring Crawford was a bonehead play by Theo.  So the money that could have been used to keep a much better player, Ellsbury, now goes to--what did Moonslave say?--a glorified platoon player.  Ellsbury actually hit lefties pretty good in 2011, even better than AGon. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    No, we don't need a rightfielder, not even a righty one.  Without one last year, the Sox had the best hitting lineup (most runs scored, highest OPS) in MLB.  The focus right now needs to be on pitching.  I applaud the possibility that Bard or Aceves could start because buying or trading for a good starter who actually delivers hasn't happened too often for the Sox.

    I agree that we need pitching way more than a RF'er. I doubt we have enough threshold tax room to fill all or our needs, so RF would probably not be able to be addressed without cutting a salary somewhere. That being said, Boston's RF'ers placed tied for 29th with a .671 OPS. I think it would improve without any moves by using Reddick/kalish and DMac in a platoon, but I hate DMac's fielding in RF. I think a pick-up like Cody Ross would be nice, but it appears his salary demands are way too high.

    As for trading Ellsbury, I doubt that the Sox would get fair value for him--at least if Cherington thinks like most contributors to this thread, including you.  

    My bet is that some GM over-values Jacoby and would "overpay" for him. The problem is that that team would be a contender and would not give us MLB ready talent in exchange. They would give us prospects instead and maybe one ML player in an area they have excesses. I guess we could then flip those prospects for a solid arm or two, but it would be complicated.

    He was only the AL MVP this year among position players as well as the Sox MVP (although AGon deserves serious consideration for that).  If he can deliver anything near this year in 2012, he will help the Sox win the AL East, etc.  provided the pitching improves over 2011. 

    Agreed, but what can the players we get in return deliver? Would our offense drop from #1 to #15 without Jacoby? (I'd guess from #1 to #3 or 4) But, would our pitching rise from an estimated low-tier to middle of the pack in 2012 to maybe top tier? Is the exchange worth it? Certainly there is merit in thinking yes.

    As Moonslav says, acquiring Crawford was a bonehead play by Theo.  So the money that could have been used to keep a much better player, Ellsbury, now goes to--what did Moonslave say?--a glorified platoon player.  Ellsbury actually hit lefties pretty good in 2011, even better than AGon. 

    Yes, Jacoby has a career split differential that is very close. I'd much rather have had Jacoby at CC's saalry than CC. I do not think Ben will pay CC $21M and Jacoby $21M as well. I think Jacoby will go where Bora$$ will get him the most money. He also does not love Sox management after the injury fiasco. I persoannly think the odds he is here in 21014 is about 2%. If that is in fact a true chance, then trading him at some point is an option that should be explored. I would never trade him just for the sake of getting rid of him. Two years of Jacoby has an extremely high value... maybe equal to 4 years of control of a nice pitcher. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    30 million on Crawford and Ellsbury is completely indefensible. One needs to be traded to address team needs. Crawford is coming off a season where he is a near total write-off. Ellsbury is due to get 8 to 10 million dollars in 2012 and 2013.

    Do the math! Paying Ellsbury 10 to 20 million to FA or before trade, by even those who ignore long term need for Rh young star OFer, does zero to address team needs on heels of 2011 debacle. Offense was overall excellent, just like 2010 when Ellsbury was in self-imposed time out.

    Defenders of 8 to 10 million for Ellsbury in 2012 are people who do not have a clue how to construct a top baseball team. Crawford is here, pipe dream to try and force fit a trade for Werth, and Crawford is InEpstein's concrete move of incompetence wll be even more incompetent if Ellsbury is not traded this winter.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from rgmfick. Show rgmfick's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I am willing to wager that Bobby Valentine will look at Carl Crawford in RF in Spring Training and will look at Ryan Lavarnway in LF in ST.  Neither will likely principally play those positions, but it makes each that much more valuable and gives the team flexibility.  As we know from the 2010 Season of serious injuries and players, even the same position players, spending a great deal of time on the DL, it is key for teams to know how to deal with injuries and it is certain our experienced ML Manager has dealt with such situations.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : No, we don't need a rightfielder, not even a righty one.  Without one last year, the Sox had the best hitting lineup (most runs scored, highest OPS) in MLB.  The focus right now needs to be on pitching.  I applaud the possibility that Bard or Aceves could start because buying or trading for a good starter who actually delivers hasn't happened too often for the Sox. As for trading Ellsbury, I doubt that the Sox would get fair value for him--at least if Cherington thinks like most contributors to this thread, including you.  He was only the AL MVP this year among position players as well as the Sox MVP (although AGon deserves serious consideration for that).  If he can deliver anything near this year in 2012, he will help the Sox win the AL East, etc.  provided the pitching improves over 2011.  As Moonslav says, acquiring Crawford was a bonehead play by Theo.  So the money that could have been used to keep a much better player, Ellsbury, now goes to--what did Moonslave say?--a glorified platoon player.  Ellsbury actually hit lefties pretty good in 2011, even better than AGon. 
    Posted by maxbialystock

    Max if I thought Ells and Boras would accept CC money, I would say the contract is yours if you sign today otherwise give me a list of your five top teams you would like to play for and the Boston Red Sox will attempt to make  a trade that is acceptable.
    Remember when Nomar turned down $48 M from the Sox. He was traded a short time later. Business is business--If $20 M in this day and age isn't enough go find your fortune at someone else's exense.
    I would trade him to the Yankees if they were willing to pay King Felix compensation: Montero, Gardner and one of the two top minor league pitching prospects. Do you have a better deal than that????

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    2011 Salaries - outfielders

    LAA  Vernon Wells              $26,187,500
            Tori Hunter                  18,500,000


    Mets  Carlos Beltran            $19.325,400
             Jason Bay                   18,125,000


    Mariners   Ichiro                  $18,000,000
                   Milton Bradley        13,000,000







     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I would say the contract is yours if you sign today otherwise give me a list of your five top teams ...you would like to play for and the Boston Red Sox will attempt to make  a trade that is acceptable....

    He doesn't and shouldn't get to choose where he goes. If he says no, send him to the Siberian huskies for all I care, as long as we get equal or better value in return.


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    2011 Salaries - outfielders 
    LAA  
    Vernon Wells              $26,187,500         
    Tori Hunter                  18,500,000 
    Mets  
    Carlos Beltran            $19.325,400          
    Jason Bay                   18,125,000
     Mariners   
    Ichiro                  $18,000,000                
    Milton Bradley        13,000,000
    Posted by UticaClub

    One note to consider, we lose the following salaries after 2012 and 2013:
    Winter 2012
    Dice-K ($8M AVV)
    Jenks ($6M)
    Scutaro ($6M)
    Shopp ($1.1M)
    Total:  $21M
    Option on Youkilis: $13M club option or $1m buyout.
    My guess is Youk's option will be taken.

    Players to sign in last arb year: Ellsbury (He may make much more than he made in 2011 or 2012) & Albers (???)

    Most of the departing players should be able to be replaced in house of for low cost. Since Ellsbury will probably make between $7-10M in 2012, one can easily envision a scenario where giving him a $10-15M raise could be handled below the tax threshold, but that doesn't mean it will happen or whether it is the right thing to do.

    Winter 2013:
    Youkilis $13M (assuming we don't re-sign or extend him)
    Ellsbury $???
    Albers    $???
    Salty      $???
    Iggy       $2.1M
    Total:  $35-50M (assuming Youk is gone)

    Option on Lester: $13M club option with $.25M buyout
    (Assume he stays)
    Players in last arb year (playing 2014 season): Bard, Aviles, Morales

    The money will be there to outbid anyone for Jacoby, but I do not think it makes sense to tie up over $42M/yr in 2 OF'ers for many many years.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    30 million for 2 left feet, much less 42 million, is utterly absurd. Loser and Mets comes to mind!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?


    What some posters are missing is this:

    We trade Jacoby for equal value now, in July 2012, or next winter. Hopefully we get a good pitcher with 4+ years of team control. Let's assume that's what we get.

    Would we rather have:
    Option 1:  Keep Ellsbury for 2 years at about $20-28M (in total arb costs), then outbid everyone at about $20-25M/yr x 6-7 years.

    Or 

    Option 2: Ellsbury for 2 years at about $20-28M (in total arb costs) then get 2 comp picks when he walks.

    Or

    Option 3: Trade Ellsbury for...
    A solid pitcher with 4 years of team control
    AND HAVE
    $20-28M to spend on FAs or players via trade over the next 2 years, plus the cost of maybe $145M/7 beyond the next 2 years. 

    That buys a lot of players.

    Certainly even Ellsbury lovers should see that option 3 is not crazy.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    What some posters are missing is this: We trade Jacoby for equal value now, in July 2012, or next winter. Hopefully we get a good pitcher with 4+ years of team control. Let's assume that's what we get. Would we rather have: Option 1:  Keep  Ellsbury for 2 years at about $20-28M (in total arb costs), then outbid everyone at about $20-25M/yr x 6-7 years. Or  Option 2: Ellsbury for 2 years at about $20-28M (in total arb costs) then get 2 comp picks when he walks. Or Option 3: Trade Ellsbury for... A solid pitcher with 4 years of team control AND HAVE $20-28M to spend on FAs or players via trade over the next 2 years, plus the cost of maybe $145M/7 beyond the next 2 years.  That buys a lot of players. Certainly even Ellsbury lovers should see that option 3 is not crazy.
    Posted by moonslav59
    Option 3 is the most likely and the most sensible. The question is when: now, mid-season 2012, next winter, mid-season 2013. And, of course, for what "solid" pitcher?  My guess is that GM's who might deal for Ellsbury will wait to see how he performs in 2012 before committing top talent for him, and that Ben won't and shouldn't move him for anything less. I hesitate to speculate how Boston's offense would rank with or without him. What we do know is that he's a big part of it. 
    At this point, we're all guessing. Not until ST will even tentative assessments of the club be possible. Needless to say, fans don't know how Ben and Bobby are sizing things up or what they think the team needs. But I doubt that either of them is in a hurry to see someone other than Ellsbury in center in 2012. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Option 3 is the most likely and the most sensible. The question is when: now, mid-season 2012, next winter, mid-season 2013. And, of course, for what "solid" pitcher?  My guess is that GM's who might deal for Ellsbury will wait to see how he performs in 2012 before committing top talent for him, and that Ben won't and shouldn't move him for anything less. I hesitate to speculate how Boston's offense would rank with or without him. What we do know is that he's a big part of it. 

    I agree, but think we had a pretty awesome offense in 2010 without Ells, and will have effectively replaced Beltre & VMart with AGon, Salty and maybe a resurrgent CC in 2012. 

    At this point, we're all guessing. Not until ST will even tentative assessments of the club be possible. Needless to say, fans don't know how Ben and Bobby are sizing things up or what they think the team needs. But I doubt that either of them is in a hurry to see someone other than Ellsbury in center in 2012. 

    I agree, and don't think they will explore trading ideas until at the earliest July 2012.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    Will Crawford be a bust for the next six years? When did that summation come out? Was it from Moses up on the mountain? It is amazing that so many on the forum have zero patience.
    Posted by UticaClub
    The Sox have no choice but to be patient with Crawford, but fandom is an irrational state and loyalty to a "team" brings certain prerogatives, one which may not be entitlement but includes impatience.
    IMO, Crawford was not signed on the basis of "the best information available." The Boston FO, manager, and some players had soured on Ellsbury because he took his future into his own hands. So they spent a ton of money and years to replace him. They were "impatient" with him. He was coming along nicely before the injury. Though the Sox -- and no one else -- could have anticipated his accomplishments in 2011, they should have seen that they had a very good developing youngish player in centerfield. But their judgment ( I think ) was blurred by feelings about him. I have a hunch they intended to trade him as soon as they could get what they considered "equal value," and then let Crawford do all the things -- even better -- that Ellsbury does. So far things haven't gone according to "the best information available." Ironically, the club may now get better value in return for Ellsbury than it might have anticipated.
    I say Sox fans have a right to be impatient with Crawford and ticked at the FO for his contract -- FOR NOW.  He may be a pretty good player for most of the remainder of his contract but in all likelihood will never be worth both the money and years.  And he might have ( might have, I repeat ) cost the Sox, sooner or later, the services of a man who could be one of the best players of his period. All of this has yet to be seen. But as of the moment, fan crankiness on this issue is perfectly justified, as humans go. After all, there probably was some FO crankiness in how Crawford/Ellsbury was handled. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Moon, it remains to be seen whether Agon and Salty have "effectively" replaced Beltre and V-Mart. Salty for V-Mart at the plate? Nor am I sure -- yet -- that Agon instead of Beltre is a winner, considering both offense and defense. Agon is good with the glove, but Beltre is great, at a more demanding position. CC can't be figured as a gain on offense until he is a gain on offense. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    Talk about trading Ellsbury for "quality young arms" ignores the fact that baseball history is replete with quality young arms for whom a ML mound was a Druidical burying ground. The Sox themselves are not absent from that history. As of now, Kelly for SD has not been that impressive. ( Maybe he not Iglesias should have been ticketed as "the shortstop of the future." ) Nor so far has Renaudo. Here in LA, the Dodgers have had a few "can't miss" misses on the mound.  I'm not sure it's an appropriate comparison.  Kelly topped off at #24 at age 19 in A+.  Pineda topped off at #16 in AAA at age 21, and has already had an excellent ML season on his resume. Would you trade 2 years of Ellsbury for 6 years of Matt Moore?  Or Strasbourg +?  Bryce Harper?
    Posted by Joebreidey
    As you might have guessed, I'm not particularly interested in how prospects are ranked. I've played, coached, and observed baseball for too long to put much stock in "expert opinion." I've seen the meek inherit the world in ML baseball, and the strong inherit a job selling cars.
    Please, enough with implausible hypotheticals. Even so, let's see Moore pitch at least one full season. Strasbourg has already broken down once. 
    All of this strikes me as a parlor game. I was never good at those. I even sucked at charades. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Moon, it remains to be seen whether Agon and Salty have "effectively" replaced Beltre and V-Mart. Salty for V-Mart at the plate? Nor am I sure -- yet -- that Agon instead of Beltre is a winner, considering both offense and defense. Agon is good with the glove, but Beltre is great, at a more demanding position. CC can't be figured as a gain on offense until he is a gain on offense. 

    Yes, I understand it is all conjecture, but I will remind other posters that most of them laughed at me when I said our 2012 offense would be about as good as 2011 and be top 3. 

    I am not always right though 

    Wink
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    There are no bright ideas unless it involves a #1 starting pitcher and a OF prospect that can replace him either this year or the next.  The RS need him to be the top of the lineup impact bat he was last year.  The other problem is Ellsbury will command a Crawford like deal if he has an MVP type season this year.  Boras will want a 5-7 year deal with an annual value around 20 million. 

    How many teams can afford that and give up a potential ace.  Not many.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I think a really good number #2 pitcher with 4 years of control at a reasonable cost would be about the best we could expect.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    If Ellsbury puts up another MVP year, a #2 is not enough.  It would take a package of a future front of the rotation starter, a OF prospect and possibly a future late inning RP.  I would start with that. 
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share