Ellsbury vs Gardner

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    Billyboy is still taking troll Softlaw seriously. Read my words:
    SOFTLAW IS PRETENDING TO HATE JAKE
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    Billyboy is still taking troll Softlaw seriously. Read my words: SOFTLAW IS PRETENDING TO HATE JAKE
    Posted by Your-Echo


    Truer words have never been spoken or in this case penned! The guy is simply playing a game of devils advocate and he works pretty hard at it too! My advice to all is don't feed his need and enter into a dialog with him, then hopefully he'll fade to black. Truth be told, he's probably has quite a few alias's and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them is actually one of the more respected poster's in this forum...reminds me of a guy that played the same game over on the herald site...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : Who has the higher WAR?
    Posted by The---Babe---


    4.8 to 4.5 (fangraphs WAR) is hardly a compelling difference and supports the notion of it being a wash when considering age and who you would rather have going forward.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : Jacoby Ellsbury is 18 days younger than Brett Gardner (who remains under his team's control for one year longer than Ellsbury remains under his team's control).
    Posted by hill55


    Camel was talking about Ells being younger than Granderson, not Gardner.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from The---Babe---. Show The---Babe---'s posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : 4.8 to 4.5 (fangraphs WAR) is hardly a compelling difference and supports the notion of it being a wash when considering age and who you would rather have going forward.

    Posted by JB-3

    Who said anything about "moving forward"?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    FWIW, From Fan Graphs Website on 06/27/11


    2. New York Yankees: Last week – 2, WAR% – .660 (1), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .618
    As if the Yankees didn’t already have enough elite ballplayers, now it’s clear that Brett Gardner is one of them as well.

    I'm not saying Gardner is better than Ellsbury, but the belittling of him here, is, well, ridiculous. (Although he's not the same player) It kind of reminds me of what they say about Jeter.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : 4.8 to 4.5 (fangraphs WAR) is hardly a compelling difference and supports the notion of it being a wash when considering age and who you would rather have going forward.
    Posted by JB-3


    This is not a trivial difference, and besides falls under the category as 'spin' and 'cherry picking'. Ellsbury deserves to be an AS, and I'm a fan of his play, but it's not a wash. Matt Kemp, who is arguably baseball's best this season at the position, has a 4.6 WAR; maybe you think that's a wash too; it also shows that WAR, while a good metric, is not the be all and end all of measurements; none are.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : Who said anything about "moving forward"?
    Posted by The---Babe---


    It's implied in Camel's response.  Otherwise youth is meaningless.  The fact of the matter is that both are having excellent seasons in different ways.  From a WAR perspective there isn't a significant difference considering it's only a half season sample size.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : This is not a trivial difference, and besides falls under the category as 'spin' and 'cherry picking' . Ellsbury deserves to be an AS, and I'm a fan of his play, but it's not a wash. Matt Kemp, who is arguably baseball's best this season at the position, has a 4.6 WAR; maybe you think that's a wash too; it also shows that WAR, while a good metric, is not the be all and end all of measurements; none are.
    Posted by nhsteven


    The original question I was responding to was "Who has the higher WAR?".  Yeah, a 0.3 difference in WAR over a half season sample is fairly insignificant given the reliance that WAR has on UZR which requires 3+ years of data to become reliable.  WAR has it's short comings in small samples just like every other stat, which is why there needs to be a margin for variance when only using a half season of data.  Additionally, I didn't say that it's "a wash", I said that there isn't a significant difference between the two.  What I meant was a statistically significant difference given the inherent variability in using half season sample sizes.

    Edit:  In the post you quoted I said "compelling difference".  I was thinking of another of my posts where I said "significant difference."  Either way, I never claimed it to be "a wash".  My claims could be taken to mean inconclusive at best.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    While we are at it, why not start comparing a LF to a 2nd baseman, a 3rd baseman to a SS, etc. They guys don't play the same position, what's the point?
    Posted by The---Babe---


    There are many different ways to look at anything.  If I want to compare a player by position I will usually use defense as the comparison, especially if the players are different offensively.  For example, Cal Ripken hit in the middle of the O's order so I would compare him to other middle of the order hitters rather than other light hitting shortstops of his era.  Similarly, I would not compare Josh Hamilton to Ellsbury because Josh is a power hitter and Ellsbury is a table setter.  To compare them because they have bother been center fielders seems kind of pointless.  I would rather compare Josh Hamilton to Adrian Gonzalez or Tex because they all put up power numbers and can carry a team.  This makes no sense to you?  It seems pretty reasonable to me.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from DCSoxFan13. Show DCSoxFan13's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    Just so I'm clear, billyboy = softy....correct?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    Somehow , this has gone way off course. The original question was : Ellsbury vs. Gardner.  I would wager that just about every G.M. , manager and scout in baseball would say that Ellsbury is better than Gardner.  I have no doubt that Cashman would make that trade in one minute. If Yankee fans want to choose their guy, fine.  Few , if any , objective observers would agree with you.  I guess sometimes it is difficult to face reality.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : The original question I was responding to was "Who has the higher WAR?".  Yeah, a 0.3 difference in WAR over a half season sample is fairly insignificant given the reliance that WAR has on UZR which requires 3+ years of data to become reliable.  WAR has it's short comings in small samples just like every other stat, which is why there needs to be a margin for variance when only using a half season of data.  Additionally, I didn't say that it's "a wash", I said that there isn't a significant difference between the two.  What I meant was a statistically significant difference given the inherent variability in using half season sample sizes. Edit:  In the post you quoted I said "compelling difference".  I was thinking of another of my posts where I said "significant difference."  Either way, I never claimed it to be "a wash".  My claims could be taken to mean inconclusive at best.
    Posted by JB-3


    OK. Sounds good to me.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    Just so I'm clear, billyboy = softy....correct?
    Posted by DCSoxFan13


    I'm not sure how he still has a profile from 2009, but yes.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    The interesting thing about Gardner's WAR is that it is largely defense-based.  While I agree he's the best defensive LF in the AL, the fangraphs 'fld' value seems likely skewed.  For instance, Gardner's Fld is 15.2, and his nearest competition is Carlos Lee at 5.0.  Does this mean he is 3 times better at his position than Carlos Lee?  Raul Ibanez is not going to win any gold gloves, but does he deserve a -16.1 rating, and how do you read that when interpreting his ability relative to Gardner?

    I think the two factors at play are 1) most LFs are in there for their offense, so the 'average replacement' is not necessarily good defensively.  In center, the opposite is true.  2) In Yankee Stadium, RF is larger than most, so there are more chances for outs.  Chances factor directly into range factor, which then factors into the 'Fld' statistic, and then WAR (I think).  The opposite is true is Philly.

    I was watching baseball tonight last night, and they used WAR to make a case for Victorino as an all-star.  Every statistic is flawed, but this one seems to be creeping into the mainstream.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from The---Babe---. Show The---Babe---'s posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner : There are many different ways to look at anything.  If I want to compare a player by position I will usually use defense as the comparison, especially if the players are different offensively.  For example, Cal Ripken hit in the middle of the O's order so I would compare him to other middle of the order hitters rather than other light hitting shortstops of his era.  Similarly, I would not compare Josh Hamilton to Ellsbury because Josh is a power hitter and Ellsbury is a table setter.  To compare them because they have bother been center fielders seems kind of pointless.  I would rather compare Josh Hamilton to Adrian Gonzalez or Tex because they all put up power numbers and can carry a team.  This makes no sense to you?  It seems pretty reasonable to me.

    Posted by jimdavis

    Fair enough, but Granderson is a top of the order hitter and PLAYS CF, so that's where the comparison should lie.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    The interesting thing about Gardner's WAR is that it is largely defense-based.  While I agree he's the best defensive LF in the AL, the fangraphs 'fld' value seems likely skewed.  For instance, Gardner's Fld is 15.2, and his nearest competition is Carlos Lee at 5.0.  Does this mean he is 3 times better at his position than Carlos Lee?  Raul Ibanez is not going to win any gold gloves, but does he deserve a -16.1 rating, and how do you read that when interpreting his ability relative to Gardner?

    Yes, Gardner's WAR is largely based on defense, which is exceptional for a LF.  Fld is the same as UZR since 2002, so I'll be referring to it as UZR, is a product of plays made compared the percentage of time that the play is made based on things such as how hard the balls hit, angle off the bat, and hangtime.  There's a full primer here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

    but basically a player is graded out based on not missing routine plays (which would kill his UZR) and making plays that others don't often make (which provides a boost to UZR).

    The way you would read the 15.2 versus 5.0 isn't that Gardner is 3 times better, rather that he was responsible for saving 3 times as many runs above a league average defender than Carlos Lee, or that he save an additional ~10 runs.


    As for Victorino, it would be that Gardner has saved ~31 more runs than Victorino.

    I was watching baseball tonight last night, and they used WAR to make a case for Victorino as an all-star.  Every statistic is flawed, but this one seems to be creeping into the mainstream

    WAR is flawed (as are all stats to some degree), because of it's reliance on UZR.  UZR doesn't begin to become a good indicator for future performance until there are 3 years of data, thus limiting the predictive use for WAR over half a season.  What WAR will tell you, is how well a player performed over a given time frame, so I can understand it's use for All-Star purposes as that's supposed to be just based on the body of work that season.  Along the same lines, UZR could be utilized to see if someone was worthy of a gold glove in a particular year, but in small samples it can't be used to predict how well someone will perform on a going forward basis.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from stuartr29. Show stuartr29's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    put it this way if the sox offered the yankees ells straight up for gardner, the yanks would fall all over themselves to do the trade.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    put it this way if the sox offered the yankees ells straight up for gardner, the yanks would fall all over themselves to do the trade.
    Posted by stuartr29

    My point, exactly. Not to worry though, Theo would never be stupid enough to do it.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    the fangraphs 'fld' value seems likely skewed.

    Maybe maybe not but that is why in the OP I also put up the BBall -Ref War #s for Ellsbury and Gardner:

    '11 WAR BBRef FGrs

    JE          3.6    4.3

    BG         2.8    3.0



    The systems give similar numbers on these two.

    WAR is the best  of all the stats even with its flaws because it takes into account defense and baserunning. Hence why Manny's best years in Boston will probably be topped by Jake this year.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner:
    the fangraphs 'fld' value seems likely skewed. Maybe maybe not but that is why in the OP I also put up the BBall -Ref War #s for Ellsbury and Gardner: '11 WAR BBRef FGrs JE          3.6    4.3 BG         2.8    3.0 The systems give similar numbers on these two.
    Posted by tom-uk


    While the FLD value is slightly skewed there is a positional correction factored into the WAR values.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    They also had Crawford's WAR up near or past 8 last year right. Of course defense is extremely important but I'm not sure it is equally as important as offense. Maybe it's more important or less important. To me it's likely to be less important for a LF and more important for a SS.

    Crawford's value is skewed to me as defense just isn't as important for a LF IMO.
     
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    How could we as RSN ever appreciate Ellsbury and enjoy his great season so far unless we came here and compared him to Gardner and talked smack with Yankee fans.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

         Jake is becoming a great player because his power numbers are up, as is his OBP. His .372 OBP shows great improvement...and lets him take advantage of his speed.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Gardner

    I like Gardner as a player quite a bit but he is a normal CF to be worth much and his numbers are probably skewed by playing in Yankee stadium, both defensively and offensively. He also hasn't been around long enough to really make any conclusions.

    Now Granderson is probably another story. He's right there with Ellsbury in many ways in terms of value and maybe better. He does cost more though. I'd have to study that one a little before making a conclusion but 25 HR out of a CF so far almost says it all right there. That kind of power is huge. It almost makes it irrelevant to even consider other numbers.
     
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