Ellsbury vs Granderson

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    Draft pick that the Cardinals got for losing Pujols to the Angels?  That would be Michael Wacha.  Laughing

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to S5's comment:
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    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ellsbury easy cuz he is a perfect lead off guy. 

    While a .350 OBP is very good, it is not "perfect" for a leadoff hitter.

    Ellsbury had the 9th best OPS on the Red Sox last year (players with 230+ PAs).

    7th best OPS out of all Sox players with 470+ PAs.

     

    I don't pay $18M+  x  5+ years for that.

     

    We will miss him, but for $18M, we can add two decent players at high need areas. The added draft pick is the gravy for the future.

    [/QUOTE]
    With all due respect, is it possible that in being a stats guy you ignore the eyeball test?

    My eyes tell me that Ellsbury makes the offense go.  When he gets on base good things happen.  I know at one point you did some research on how many singles or BB's get turned into doubles with a SB and I was surprised that it didn't look THAT MUCH better.   Something that can't be quantified is that is being on base also often times causes a realignment of the IF's to give Victorino and Pedey a hole on the right side to hit through - which they're both very adept at.     

    And of course there's the fact that Ellsbury's just being on base gets the hitters behind him more FB's to hit along with more "mistake pitches".   

    I certainly wouldn't question his numbers - they are what they are - but IMO they don't tell the whole story of how valuable he is to the offense. 

    [/QUOTE]


    A 350-60OBP if your Ellsbury, while not "perfect", is very good for a leadoff hitter. The way he changes thing standing on 1b. Pitchers throw more FB's, the infield is playing for a steal. Compare him to a guy like Choo who has a higher OBP, but is not nearly the threat that Ells is. Pitchers wouldnt worry about Choo standing on 1b, but the certainly do with Ellsbury. That evens things out quite a bit IMHO. Ells' intangibles is what makes him worth 18M per, along with everything else. There is a human element to the game. Its not all about the numbers.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Ellsbury easy cuz he is a perfect lead off guy. 

    While a .350 OBP is very good, it is not "perfect" for a leadoff hitter.

    Ellsbury had the 9th best OPS on the Red Sox last year (players with 230+ PAs).

    7th best OPS out of all Sox players with 470+ PAs.

     

    I don't pay $18M+  x  5+ years for that.

     

    We will miss him, but for $18M, we can add two decent players at high need areas. The added draft pick is the gravy for the future.

     

    [/QUOTE]
    With all due respect, is it possible that in being a stats guy you ignore the eyeball test?

    I have eyes. I am getting tired of posters assuming that just because somebody uses stats to support their position, likes numbers, and likes metrics, they somehow can not understand the human element or intangibles not measured by data.

    I know Ellsbury brings a lot more to the table than OPS. He makes hitting easier for the guys up after him when he is at 1B. His SBs and great SB% is sometimes worth more than just turning a single into a dbl.

    He is worth much more than a .350 OBP and .780 OPS kind of player. I get that.

    My eyes tell me that Ellsbury makes the offense go.  When he gets on base good things happen.  I know at one point you did some research on how many singles or BB's get turned into doubles with a SB and that made his numbers look better.   Something that can't be quantified is that is being on base also often times causes a realignment of the IF's to give Victorino and Pedey a hole on the right side to hit through - which they're both very adept at.     

    Agreed, but 1Bmen hold almost all runners when on 1B. It's more about the pitcher being distracted.

     

    And of course there's the fact that Ellsbury's just being on base gets the hitters behind him more FB's to hit along with more "mistake pitches".   

    Very true, but I also think some hitters are distracted by a baserunner taking off. They feel they have to "protect" him.

    I certainly wouldn't question his numbers - they are what they are - but IMO they don't tell the whole story of how valuable he is to the offense. 

    Agreed.

    Like I said, we will miss him, but with only about $30M to spend and 3-4 big holes to fill, I can't see spending about 2/3rds of that budget on 1 guy, especially a guy who was just the 7th best OPS guy. As much as SBs and defense in CF add to Jacoby's value, OPS is a very important piece to a player's overall value, and he just is not high enough for me to fork over $100M/6 or more.

    I certainly want him back.

    I certainly know our team will suffer his loss.

    I'm not softy.

    I am looking at what else we can get for $100M plus the value of the draft pick and how much we have to suffer at other high need areas if we pay Ellsbury to play here.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    Just a guess naturrally---Grande is 6'1---195. JBJ is 5'10-195. I would take Grande over Ells--I believe he got a QO so he won't come cheap.

    I think we will be shocked at  the power JBJ possesses. As he continues to mature he will hit more home runs than Ells and he will become a proficient base stealer; perhaps not 50 to 70 maybe 25-30. BA after a year or two in the .270 range --I think he will play at .285.

    He has a superior arm to Ells. He plays a pretty good CF.

    Time will tell. It's tough for these kids to get a call up and produce out of the gate. I thought Lava showed more poise in his third major league opportunity.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    Definitely Ellsbury over Granderson for the Sox.  Granderson over Ellsbury for the Yankees and maybe some other team.

    The cost in salary is not going to be that much different, Ellsbury is a true lead off guy, both play decent defense, Granderson is older, Granderson's power numbers will decrease not playing 81 games in Yankee Stadium, Ellsbury knows Boston and has had success there right from his rookie year, Ellsbury is going to steal many more bases, Granderson will cost a draft pick,  etc, etc.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to MadMc1944's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just a guess naturrally---Grande is 6'1---195. JBJ is 5'10-195. I would take Grande over Ells--I believe he got a QO so he won't come cheap.

    I think we will be shocked at  the power JBJ possesses. As he continues to mature he will hit more home runs than Ells and he will become a proficient base stealer; perhaps not 50 to 70 maybe 25-30. BA after a year or two in the .270 range --I think he will play at .285.

    He has a superior arm to Ells. He plays a pretty good CF.

    Time will tell. It's tough for these kids to get a call up and produce out of the gate. I thought Lava showed more poise in his third major league opportunity.

    [/QUOTE]


    JBJ could have 15-20HR power. Not bad at all. Hes NOT a proficient base stealer. Hes quick in terms of tracking balls down, but not as a base stealer. He may get 20sb, but he will also get caught a lot. Thats not proficient.

    I can see a .280BA with a 360+OBP and a low 400's SLG with GG defense in CF. Nothing wrong with that at all from a CF'er. But I dont see that until 2015-2016.

    Give Lav a 1b mit already or trade him. He not a very good MLB catcher.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to chris2's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Question, do you think we need a little more power / production from our outfield. 

    [/QUOTE]
    Assuming this is a serious question and not rhetorical to make a point...

    You can always want a little more power or production from any position, but this team wasn't put together to be mashers.  I have no problem with the offensive side of the OF as it stands. 

    What I DO think this team needs for 2014 is more power from the 3B position and at least equal power as 2013 from 1B. 

    I don't expect Papi to have another year like 2013 although I do expect him to still be the best DH in baseball, but I also expect Pedey's numbers to improve to offset Papi. I look for the two of them to be a wash. 

    I don't expect XBo to demonstrate great power but I look for him to put up better overall numbers than Drew over the season. The thing that's always bothered me about Drew is that he's streaky - feast or famine for weeks sometimes. 

    In a nutshell, I think the Sox are going to be Ok offensively for 2014 IF Middy comes around and we sign someone to catch who can also hit. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    We have so few top OF prospects. JBJ will not be traded.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to tobascotexaspete's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     Anyone want to bet that Bradley's OPS in first 300 PA vs. RP is closer to .813 than to .722?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll take that bet softy.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to chris2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to chris2's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Question, do you think we need a little more power / production from our outfield. 

    [/QUOTE]
    Assuming this is a serious question and not rhetorical to make a point...

    You can always want a little more power or production from any position, but this team wasn't put together to be mashers.  I have no problem with the offensive side of the OF as it stands. 

    What I DO think this team needs for 2014 is more power from the 3B position and at least equal power as 2013 from 1B. 

    I don't expect Papi to have another year like 2013 although I do expect him to still be the best DH in baseball, but I also expect Pedey's numbers to improve to offset Papi. I look for the two of them to be a wash. 

    I don't expect XBo to demonstrate great power but I look for him to put up better overall numbers than Drew over the season. The thing that's always bothered me about Drew is that he's streaky - feast or famine for weeks sometimes. 

    In a nutshell, I think the Sox are going to be Ok offensively for 2014 IF Middy comes around and we sign someone to catch who can also hit. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Here is what I'm trying to say, if we loose Ells, then where is our production coming from in the outfiled, JBJ in Center, Vic in right and Nava / Gomes in left. Even though I think Nava will get better this year and give us a little more production, we still need more. Middy, hopefully will better, just don't know for sure. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Your going to lose production at the catchers position too. Say what you want about salty, but an 800OPS from the catcher spot is tough to replace. Yes, I realize he had some of his highest offensive numbers, but thats not a surprise to me. Slg was down and OBP/BA was up. Point being is the average OPS from the C in MLB position was much lower than that.

    I dont expect huge numbers from my up the middle players, so Ellsbury hanging around an 800OPS is a bonus. Same with SS, 2b and C. Besides papi and maybe Naps, we didnt have a bonified HR hitter.

    I would like to think Middy will provide some power in 2014 as well as Xander. Pedey should show more power with a healthy thumb as well. JBJ will struggle some, but eventually should be Ok. Hopefully Naps is resigned, and if not, Corey Hart for a year. Navarro could provide some good offensive numbers for a fraction of the cost at the C spot. .295BA the last 2 years with good OBP.

    I have no issue with Ells at 6/108. Dont want CG at all. Not in Fenway for 81 games. Big pull hitter that K's a ton. Ill take the K's if hes a RHH. (see Middy, Naps).

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to S5's comment:
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    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We should not be looking to downgrade at any position, least of all centerfield. It doesn't take much to go from first to fourth in the A.L. East. The goal has to be to keep getting better, not putting less of a team out there and hoping for the best.

    [/QUOTE]

    +1
    Sign Ellsbury (if possible) & either stockpile JBJ in Pawtucket as the RF in 2015 or trade JBJ to fill another gap.

    Personally I like the idea of holding onto him.  If there's one big take-away from the 2013 season it's that the Sox need a CF to patrol RF in Fenway and JBJ is a prime candidate.  As much as I like everything Victorino brings to the table I see his health as being a concern in 2014 and even more in 2015.

    Option #2:  We have a LF of Nava, Gomes, and Carp with Nava and Carp both having the same versatility.  As much as I'd hate to see either Nava or Carp leave, if one of them got traded there'd be room for JBJ in Boston as the 5th OF.  In that capacity we'd have a solid backup in CF and RF. 

    Ugh. I'm talking myself into trading Nava or Carp here.  :-(

    [/QUOTE]

    I have been thinking about this lately too. If we sign Ellsbury, what to do with JBJ. After two more seasons, he would make a perfect Victorino replacement. He is very similar to Victorino, only a lefty. And in the next two seasons, he could replace Nava-Carp in LF.

    One thing about Ellsbury and Crawford in LF was that they were totally wasted in front of the Monster. Their speed was wasted. They were afraid of the wall. And their arms were so noodly they couldn't stop guys from taking second. But with JBJ, I don't think any of these things would be the case. His strength is not speed, its quick reads and jumps. That better suits LF in Boston. I don't think JBJ's defense would be totally wasted in LF. Plus he could back up CF and RF if injuries occur, which with Ellsbury and Victorino is not that unexpected.

    We could even start the year with JBJ in AAA and trade Nava in the middle of the season. But I could still see JBJ and Ellsbury being long term fits in Boston.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    BTW, Granderson is a horrible fit and I don't want him.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to chris2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to chris2's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Question, do you think we need a little more power / production from our outfield. 

    [/QUOTE]
    Assuming this is a serious question and not rhetorical to make a point...

    You can always want a little more power or production from any position, but this team wasn't put together to be mashers.  I have no problem with the offensive side of the OF as it stands. 

    What I DO think this team needs for 2014 is more power from the 3B position and at least equal power as 2013 from 1B. 

    I don't expect Papi to have another year like 2013 although I do expect him to still be the best DH in baseball, but I also expect Pedey's numbers to improve to offset Papi. I look for the two of them to be a wash. 

    I don't expect XBo to demonstrate great power but I look for him to put up better overall numbers than Drew over the season. The thing that's always bothered me about Drew is that he's streaky - feast or famine for weeks sometimes. 

    In a nutshell, I think the Sox are going to be Ok offensively for 2014 IF Middy comes around and we sign someone to catch who can also hit. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Here is what I'm trying to say, if we loose Ells, then where is our production coming from in the outfiled, JBJ in Center, Vic in right and Nava / Gomes in left. Even though I think Nava will get better this year and give us a little more production, we still need more. Middy, hopefully will better, just don't know for sure. 

    [/QUOTE]

    If Steamer is to be believed, and they are well recognized, then JBJ is projected for .739.  Ellsbury had a .781 last year.  The difference btween those two numbers, spread out over the team OPS, would reduce our team OPS by 4.2 points.  That won't prevent us from being a big scorer.

    You can't predict rookies, but if you're going to sign someone for $100M+, when you have a prospect that was ranked #31 in the minors, then you almost would be better off not having a minor league system.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    In response to jerryoleary's comment:

    But I could still see JBJ and Ellsbury being long term fits in Boston.


    You are delusional. Even Joe and his Peavy and a B prospect for Butler knows Ellsbury isn't and shouldn't be resigned over the altnerative. Davis is the one to sign, and with Bradley, a perfect veteran compliment on a short term contract that will produce way more than Ellsbury. Davis has more speed than Ellsbury and more steals in less games in the last 2 seasons. Davis hits LP way better than Ellsbury, and Bradley has more power than Ellsbury and will hit RP better than Ellsbury has in his career and isn't far behind him in that category despite just a few PA in up and down bench duty. Bradley has the superior OPS in the minors that includes AAA level. 

    Sign the 33 year old Davis for about 12 to 15M or even a little more, take the draft pick and work the 24 year old Bradley in alongside of the veteran role player Davis and even@ 80 million to sign the 30 year old Ellsbury, much less 100 million plus, is not even worth considering. 

    For those who get all excited about Ellsbury on the bases, Davis is the superior base runner.

    Steamer* projects a 2014 on-base percentage of .305 for Rajai Davis, who posted an OBP of .312 in 2013 and .316 for his career. Davis posted a WAR** of 1.2 in 108 games this year and is projected to post a WAR of 0.5 in 57 games in 2014.

    Davis stole 45 bases in 51 attempts (88.2%) this year and 268 in 336 attempts (79.8%) for his career.

    Jacoby Ellsbury stole 52 bases in 56 attempts (92.9%) this year and 241 in 287 attempts (84.0%) in his career.

    FanGraphs has assigned Davis a baserunning score of 41.6 in 821 career games, including 10.2 in 108 games this year, while giving Ellsbury a score of 38.1 in 715 career games, including 11.4 in 134 games this year.

    * http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

    ** Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    "With all due respect, is it possible that in being a stats guy you (moonslav59) ignore the eyeball test?"  S5


    It is more than "possible" as it happens all the time with moon and others. I like my eyes better than a screen filled with numbers...  

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson

    Five points: 1- Ellsbury is better than Granderson.  2- Ellsbury is better than Davis. 3- Bradley is going to be a very good MLB player. 4- There is no reason that Ellsbury and Bradley cannot play in the same outfield. 5- Please stop worrying about the money. It is not your money. None of these guys are worth the money they are being paid, and there are always risks involved. But this is big business. Not some small market, small time chumps. 

     
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