Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    I expect Ellsbury to have a great season - and make it tougher on the Sox management as a result.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Next June, when we are looking at the prospect we chose with the 33rd or 38th pick in the draft as comp for losing Ellsbury, many here will be saying, "Is that all we got for him? We could/should have done better."




    Moon,

     

       You are probably right.   I see Els as an enigma at present.  I am always looking for the best in our guys, Jed Lowry is a recent example of talent and injury mixed together.  I liked Jed a lot.  But he just couldn't seem to stay healty.  Before anyone aks if I'm comparing Jed's talents with Els, I am not.  I am comparing the circumstance.  Talent and injury.  The fact that his agent plays a significant part in this is also a dark lining to a silver cloud. 

       Who gets Ellsbury on the cheap, then?  I know the Sox won't.  I know they won't pay Jacoby

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to SinceYaz's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Next June, when we are looking at the prospect we chose with the 33rd or 38th pick in the draft as comp for losing Ellsbury, many here will be saying, "Is that all we got for him? We could/should have done better."

     




    Moon,

     

     

       You are probably right.   I see Els as an enigma at present.  I am always looking for the best in our guys, Jed Lowry is a recent example of talent and injury mixed together.  I liked Jed a lot.  But he just couldn't seem to stay healty.  Before anyone aks if I'm comparing Jed's talents with Els, I am not.  I am comparing the circumstance.  Talent and injury.  The fact that his agent plays a significant part in this is also a dark lining to a silver cloud. 

       Who gets Ellsbury on the cheap, then?  I know the Sox won't.  I know they won't pay Jacoby



    I am so certain Ellsbury will not be here beyond 2013, unless he gets hurt or has a bad year and agrees to the 1 year offer to try and prove himself again. That is why I think moving him before the season starts (comp pick still attached) makes the most sense.

    I'm not for giving him away. I see what Choo brohgt back in return (#14 BA prospect), and I think that...

    Ellsbury for 1 year + the comp pick = a very nice prospect

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I can see a 3/75, or a 7/125

    No chance Ellsbury gets 125M gauranteed. Zero.



    If he repeats his 2011 campaign, you can take that to the bank.

    You can call it dumb because you're president of the "humanity against Jacoby Ellsbury club" but reality is it only take ONE team to make that offer....ONE. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I can see a 3/75, or a 7/125

    No chance Ellsbury gets 125M gauranteed. Zero.

     



    If he repeats his 2011 campaign, you can take that to the bank.

     

    You can call it dumb because you're president of the "humanity against Jacoby Ellsbury club" but reality is it only take ONE team to make that offer....ONE. 



    Even if Jacoby repeats 2011, I don't see him getting a 7 year deal at his age and injury history. He will probably not even get $90M/5 or $80M/4. My guess is, he'd get $68M/4 or $55M/3 tops.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I can see a 3/75, or a 7/125

    No chance Ellsbury gets 125M gauranteed. Zero.

     



    If he repeats his 2011 campaign, you can take that to the bank.

     

    You can call it dumb because you're president of the "humanity against Jacoby Ellsbury club" but reality is it only take ONE team to make that offer....ONE. 

     



    Even if Jacoby repeats 2011, I don't see him getting a 7 year deal at his age and injury history. He will probably not even get $90M/5 or $80M/4. My guess is, he'd get $68M/4 or $55M/3 tops.

     



    Well perhaps it's not highly likely, but there are moves, deals, trades, signings every year that have people scratching there heads which is why I think it is possible for there to always be a team that takes that chance.  

    You can make a strong argument that his health woes have been freak accidents, and all it takes is that one team to think that.  And if you put in a Lackey clause that kinda contract could have a AAV of 15 million.  If a team likes him and believes his injuries are behind him and he repeats his 2011 campaign someone could make him that offer.  Like I said, it only takes one team.  A lot of it could depend on the market too...perhaps a 6/108 is a bit more realistic with the 7th year being the league minimum if he's injured. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I can see a 3/75, or a 7/125

    No chance Ellsbury gets 125M gauranteed. Zero.

     



    If he repeats his 2011 campaign, you can take that to the bank.

     

    You can call it dumb because you're president of the "humanity against Jacoby Ellsbury club" but reality is it only take ONE team to make that offer....ONE. 

     



    Even if Jacoby repeats 2011, I don't see him getting a 7 year deal at his age and injury history. He will probably not even get $90M/5 or $80M/4. My guess is, he'd get $68M/4 or $55M/3 tops.

     

     



    Well perhaps it's not highly likely, but there are moves, deals, trades, signings every year that have people scratching there heads which is why I think it is possible for there to always be a team that takes that chance.  

     

    You can make a strong argument that his health woes have been freak accidents, and all it takes is that one team to think that.  And if you put in a Lackey clause that kinda contract could have a AAV of 15 million.  If a team likes him and believes his injuries are behind him and he repeats his 2011 campaign someone could make him that offer.  Like I said, it only takes one team.  A lot of it could depend on the market too...perhaps a 6/108 is a bit more realistic with the 7th year being the league minimum if he's injured. 



    I think we can compare him to BJ Upton. Ellsbury has had better numbers when healthy, but BJ plays every day and puts up decent numbers on O and fields well.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Perhaps if Jacoby Ellsbury this year matches the 6.4 WAR* posted last year by Michael Bourn (at Ellsbury's current age), Ellsbury will match the four-year, $48 million contract** landed by that Scott Boras client.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OF

    ** with a vesting option for a fifth year at $12 million

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Perhaps if Jacoby Ellsbury this year matches the 6.4 WAR* posted last year by Michael Bourn (at Ellsbury's current age), Ellsbury will match the four-year, $48 million contract** landed by that Scott Boras client.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OF

    ** with a vesting option for a fifth year at $12 million



    It just shows how much several Sox fans overvalue our players.

    Bourn has been healthy as well. I think my suggested extension offer of $39M/3 is spot on value.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RickEO. Show RickEO's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

     Not worth a penny over 12 mill a yr

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to RickEO's comment:

     Not worth a penny over 12 mill a yr



    For 3 years, $39M is good, plus the offer needs to meet the qualifying minimum (maybe $13-14M next winter) for us to get the draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

     
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