Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Els 100 more ABs than Vic Need them both or cheaper option for Els to match his assets, especially base running.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd love to have Ellsbury back, but even $18M x 5 or more years is too high for me.

    There are so many positive things he brings to the game (and our team) that aren't always measured by stats.

    The two things that make me shy away from offering huge money are:

    1) He does not even have a top 6 OPS on his own team during this healthy season. I know OPS is not everything, and I tend to use that stat too much, but paying $20M/yr plus for a .780 to .790 OPS just turns me off too much.

    2) He has a weak arm and still gets late breaks or takes wrong angles on balls a bit too much for my liking. Yes, he makes up for it and then some with his speed, but I do not feel he is as great a fielder as many here seem to feel he is.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    if ever there were a time to not use OPS it was now

    the lead off hitter is not a slugger. he's an OBP guy.  forget OPS, it's irrelevant.....

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Major or Minor

    Sox and Pats major league.  Have Celts and Bruins become minor league, albeit with hardcore groups of fans, except when they win championships?  Celts were big when winning multiple championships; now it feels like not so much.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Sorry mispost.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Don't think I subscribe to the position that the Beltre/Ellsbury collision was 100% Ellsbury's fault. As things often are it's just not that black & white. How about the SS responsibilty to help call one or the other off? And Theo sticking the fleetfooted Ellsbury in LF to accomodate the aging Cameron in CF.

    I'll agree on 90% Ellsbury, and that is as low as I'll go.

    Any OF'er is taught in little league to call off the IF'er once you know you can catch it.

    Any IF'er is taught in little league to run as hard as possible for balls over your head, until you hear the OF'er call you off.

    To tell you the truth, I got a bit ticked off when people blamed Beltre for doing his job, or for "not knowing the Fenway confines and assuming the LF'er was closer than normal" etc...

    The SS was not part of that play and is not the one to yell out something like, "Jacoby's ball!". It's 100% Jacoby's job to call for a ball he knows he can get ASAP and as loud as possible. I never see him do it, and I have watched for it every single time there's a close play.


    Even with the mediocre arm, I consider Ellsbury the best defensive Centerfielder the Sox have ever had and that includes Dom Dimaggio, Jimmy Piersall and Fred Lynn. He has more speed than any of the past CFs and I think he gets to more balls than any of the others.

    I never saw the former two guys, but I think the 1975 Lynn and the 2008 Crisp were better.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'd love to have Ellsbury back, but even $18M x 5 or more years is too high for me.

    There are so many positive things he brings to the game (and our team) that aren't always measured by stats.

    The two things that make me shy away from offering huge money are:

    1) He does not even have a top 6 OPS on his own team during this healthy season. I know OPS is not everything, and I tend to use that stat too much, but paying $20M/yr plus for a .780 to .790 OPS just turns me off too much.

    2) He has a weak arm and still gets late breaks or takes wrong angles on balls a bit too much for my liking. Yes, he makes up for it and then some with his speed, but I do not feel he is as great a fielder as many here seem to feel he is.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    if ever there were a time to not use OPS it was now

    the lead off hitter is not a slugger. he's an OBP guy.  forget OPS, it's irrelevant.....

    [/QUOTE]

    Paying close to $20M to anyone without a high SLG% has to make up for that elsewhere. Yes, the SBs and defense being him part way there, but his OBP is not great. You pointed out his "leadoff hitter" status and how OBP not OPS is important. Well, he didn't even have a top 5 OBP on his own team.

    .355 is good not great. Certainly not $20M great.

    Out of 140 qualifying MLB players this year, Ellsbury placed tied for 38th or 39th wit h VMart. That's not even top 25% in MLB.

    Out of the 28 CF'ers with 600+ innings of defense, Ellsbury placed 7th in UZR/150 (3rd in Range according to Fangraphs). From 2011-2013, there are 45 CF'ers with 1000+ innings: Ellsbury placed 6th in UZR/150, 1st in range, and 43rd in arm.

    He's the best basestealer in MLB and causes issues with opposing pitchers when he's on the bases beyond just the SB, but I do not think that makes him an $18-21M a year guy for 5+ seasons.

    Yes, he has looked great these last 4 games, but many times this season and last, people had their doubts about his worth. No 4 game stretch should significantly alter the amount of a contract offer.

    If I'm going to sign a low SLG% player to over $18M for 5+ years, he'd better be best or near best in several more areas than just SBs and CF range on defense. His OBP is not close to "near best". I'm not complaining about .350 to .355, but I'm not paying $18M for it either. His arm may be the worst or near worst in MLB today. 

    Let's play with the numbers a bit and count every SB (minus the 4 CS) as doubles not singles. That brings his SLG% to .510. Now, subtract 4 hits from his OBP for the 4 CS and his OBP is: .349.  That brings his OPS up to about 860 with the SBs no longer being a factor.

    .860 with excellent range in CF, a horrible arm, and about at the 25th percentile on overall defense still does not make him an $18M man. The 5 and 6 year deal is a huge stretch, and I haven't even mentioned injuries or his occasional recklessness.

    Sorry. I'd offer about $50M/3 or maybe $65M/4 tops. He will turn it down. We get a draft pick and use that money to sign or keep several players over the next 5-6 years. My guess is that Ben might offer $80M/5 or even $90M/5, but that will probably not be enough. Too many desperate GMs out there (like maybe the Yanks if they lose Cano to the Dodgers).

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury


    It never ceases to amaze me how people try to look for things that are "wrong" with a player instead of seeing what he brings to the game.

    First the knock on Ells was that he "gets a bad jump on the ball", followed by "he takes a bad route to the ball".  Then it was "bad arm", followed by "fragile" (totally untrue BTW), and now it's that he doesn't call other players off often enough.

    All these numbers and subjective opinions are nice but sometimes we have the benefit of hindsight which is always 20/20 and brings up the question of... Where would the Sox be without him?

    I see him draw a walk and steal second, then score on a single that most runners wouldn't score on - to win an important game.

    I see him running down balls in the OF that most CF's wouldn't come near getting.

    I see his base stealing ability getting Victorino more FB's to hit as well as more good pitches to hit as Ells distracts the pitcher.

    There have only been three years since Ells joined the team a a full time player in 2008 that the Sox finished with fewer than 95 wins.  Ells had the long-term injuries in 2010 (89 wins) and 2012 (69 wins and the BV year) and 90 wins in 2011 when Ells had an OPS of .928.  That .928 makes it hard to blame "only" 90 wins on Ellsbury. 

    This is a guy who makes the offense go, and some people want to pay him less than the market value because, "he doesn't call other people off". 

    Pffft.   

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    It never ceases to amaze me how people try to look for things that are "wrong" with a player instead of seeing what he brings to the game.

    First the knock on Ells was that he "gets a bad jump on the ball", followed by "he takes a bad route to the ball".  Then it was "bad arm", followed by "fragile" (totally untrue BTW), and now it's that he doesn't call other players off often enough.

    All these numbers and subjective opinions are nice but sometimes we have the benefit of hindsight which is always 20/20 and brings up the question of... Where would the Sox be without him?

    I see him draw a walk and steal second, then score on a single that most runners wouldn't score on - to win an important game.

    I see him running down balls in the OF that most CF's wouldn't come near getting.

    I see his base stealing ability getting Victorino more FB's to hit as well as more good pitches to hit as Ells distracts the pitcher.

    There have only been three years since Ells joined the team a a full time player in 2008 that the Sox finished with fewer than 95 wins.  Ells had the long-term injuries in 2010 (89 wins) and 2012 (69 wins and the BV year) and 90 wins in 2011 when Ells had an OPS of .928.  That .928 makes it hard to blame "only" 90 wins on Ellsbury. 

    This is a guy who makes the offense go, and some people want to pay him less than the market value because, "he doesn't call other people off". 

    Pffft.   

     

    [/QUOTE]


    The only poster who makes those critical commentaries about Ellsbury is really not to be taken seriously, as he really only says things like that to support his positon of automatically gainsaying every move the Sox management makes is incorrect and they are running this organization into the ground.  He has taken the anti-Ellsbury stance since prior to Ellsbury's intial promotion in 2007, back when Ellsbury was labeled a savior and the next Ted Williams (which was  reach, to be kind).

     

    Really, while I do believe ellsbury is going to go to free agency, like nearly all Boras clients, the one consolation for his diehard supporting contingency is that if the sox do make one long-term heavy commitment to any free agent this off-season, it will be Ellsbury.  Because he will not cost them a draft pick and corresponding slot money, unlike the Cano / Choo / McCann etc. names that will be out there....

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     Because he will not cost them a draft pick and corresponding slot mone


    He will cost them a pick, since they'll get one when he leaves.

    Notin, you must be a financial loser. Since when does "no other FA this year" translate to "that leaves Els on the FA board for management's FA yearly quota"?

    Let me set you straight:

    Victorino + Bradley =  13.5M for 2014 and 13.5 M for 2015 + upper level draft pick

    Victorino + Ellsbury = 30 to 35M for 2014 and 30 to 35M for 2015

    You can't be that stupid. Not a good way to spend the extra money for an OF roster spot. 

    [/QUOTE]


    The pick they receive will add to their draft pool money, but any player besides Ellsbury will cost them money, and the slot money will be higher than the money received in the sandwich round.

     

    I doubt they sign any big money long term guys at all.  But if, for some reason, they feel the need to spend heavily and sign one, Ellsbury is the mopst likely candidate.  It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    It never ceases to amaze me how people try to look for things that are "wrong" with a player instead of seeing what he brings to the game.

    First the knock on Ells was that he "gets a bad jump on the ball", followed by "he takes a bad route to the ball".  Then it was "bad arm", followed by "fragile" (totally untrue BTW), and now it's that he doesn't call other players off often enough.

    I was one of Jacoby's biggest defenders for many years and have recently praised Ellsbury for all he has done well. When a poster tries to defend why he would not overpay a player, he generally will concentraste on the reasons why, hence the emphasis on the perceived negative attributes.

    I mentioned the great things about Ellsbury. Maybe you think a .350-.355 OBP by a leadoff hitter is "great", but to me .390+ is where the "great" debate can begin.

     

    All these numbers and subjective opinions are nice but sometimes we have the benefit of hindsight which is always 20/20 and brings up the question of... Where would the Sox be without him?

    I have never denied losing Ellsbury would hurt. Never. The equation is not just about a one player decision. Signing Ellsbury to $95M+/5 or $110M+/6 will mean we do not re-sign other players that helped get us where we are now or sign free agents to upgrade other positions over the next 5 to 6 years.

    I see him draw a walk and steal second, then score on a single that most runners wouldn't score on - to win an important game.

    A single and SB is close to the same value as a double. Mabye more since it upsets the rythym of the pitcher.

    I see him running down balls in the OF that most CF's wouldn't come near getting. 

    I do too, and duely noted that fact, however, I lessened his overall fielding rating by counting his horrible arm of which has led to several runs by the opponents over the season, and his improved but still noticable propensity to get some bad breaks or take bad routes. You may agree to disagree, but I see it too often tso not mention it.

    I see his base stealing ability getting Victorino more FB's to hit as well as more good pitches to hit as Ells distracts the pitcher.

    I noted this. Did you miss that?

    There have only been three years since Ells joined the team a a full time player in 2008 that the Sox finished with fewer than 95 wins.  Ells had the long-term injuries in 2010 (89 wins) and 2012 (69 wins and the BV year) and 90 wins in 2011 when Ells had an OPS of .928.  That .928 makes it hard to blame "only" 90 wins on Ellsbury. 

    I never did that.

    This is a guy who makes the offense go, and some people want to pay him less than the market value because, "he doesn't call other people off". 

    Pffft.   

    You reduced my position to one small part of it. Shame on you.

    Pfft!

    90% of my position is based on his .350 career OBP. He does not make up for that with a great SLG%. Yes the SBs and top 25% fielding does upgrade his value, but in my opinion not to the $18M+ a year status reserved for great players who excell in more than just baserunning and running down fly balls.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    I doubt they sign any big money long term guys at all.  But if, for some reason, they feel the need to spend heavily and sign one, Ellsbury is the mopst likely candidate.  It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I agree, and I think the Sox lean towards having a balanced attack, and so will choose to not sign any one player to a longterm deal over 2-3 at shorter terms.

    We keep Salty, Napoli, sign a decent RF'er, and upgrade our pen with a couple guys, instead of Ellsbury and maybe just one or two of the 4 other slots I just mentioned (not RF).

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Notin, you just made my case better than I could have made it, with the mental gymnastics about "slot money if we sign Ellsbury instead of the other Buster Olney FA names for 2013" 

     

    It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I know they read my posts, Notin, I've had numerous replies from members of management.

    As for whether they agree with them, I'll simply point to Crawford on crediblity. 

    I've noted that you, and perhaps Red Sox management, disagree with my valuation on letting Ellsbury go to another MLB team's payroll and move on with Victorino and Bradley and the draft compensation and spend all or part of the costs not spent on Ellsbury, spend that for other roster construction needs that will have a greater net roster construction improvement impact than getting Ellsbury's declining years of early 30's and middle 30's for around 100 million or more. 

    Speed / Age

    OPS

    Do the obvious and Let Ellsbury go.

    Frankly, I'll enjoy it more if they spend 100 million or more and keep Crawbust.

    [/QUOTE]
    Ok, now. THAT is funny.  I'm sure Theo, Larry, Bill James, John Henry and Farrell rush to their computers every morning to see what Softy has said.  Next on the agenda there's a meeting to discuss it, and then they respond asking for more of his opinions.  ROFL

    And they have an ongoing correspondence with him regarding who to sign, who to let go, and what the batting order should be.  Self-important much??

    Sorry, I can't type this without literally LOL.  I wish this forum had an emoticon of the little guy lying on his side laughing because I'd put a string of them across the bottom of this post. Instead I'll have to settle for this:

    Laughing   Laughing   Laughing 

     

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    It never ceases to amaze me how people try to look for things that are "wrong" with a player instead of seeing what he brings to the game.

    First the knock on Ells was that he "gets a bad jump on the ball", followed by "he takes a bad route to the ball".  Then it was "bad arm", followed by "fragile" (totally untrue BTW), and now it's that he doesn't call other players off often enough.

    I was one of Jacoby's biggest defenders for many years and have recently praised Ellsbury for all he has done well. When a poster tries to defend why he would not overpay a player, he generally will concentraste on the reasons why, hence the emphasis on the perceived negative attributes.

    I mentioned the great things about Ellsbury. Maybe you think a .350-.355 OBP by a leadoff hitter is "great", but to me .390+ is where the "great" debate can begin.

     

    All these numbers and subjective opinions are nice but sometimes we have the benefit of hindsight which is always 20/20 and brings up the question of... Where would the Sox be without him?

    I have never denied losing Ellsbury would hurt. Never. The equation is not just about a one player decision. Signing Ellsbury to $95M+/5 or $110M+/6 will mean we do not re-sign other players that helped get us where we are now or sign free agents to upgrade other positions over the next 5 to 6 years.

    I see him draw a walk and steal second, then score on a single that most runners wouldn't score on - to win an important game.

    A single and SB is close to the same value as a double. Mabye more since it upsets the rythym of the pitcher.

    I see him running down balls in the OF that most CF's wouldn't come near getting. 

    I do too, and duely noted that fact, however, I lessened his overall fielding rating by counting his horrible arm of which has led to several runs by the opponents over the season, and his improved but still noticable propensity to get some bad breaks or take bad routes. You may agree to disagree, but I see it too often tso not mention it.

    I see his base stealing ability getting Victorino more FB's to hit as well as more good pitches to hit as Ells distracts the pitcher.

    I noted this. Did you miss that?

    There have only been three years since Ells joined the team a a full time player in 2008 that the Sox finished with fewer than 95 wins.  Ells had the long-term injuries in 2010 (89 wins) and 2012 (69 wins and the BV year) and 90 wins in 2011 when Ells had an OPS of .928.  That .928 makes it hard to blame "only" 90 wins on Ellsbury. 

    I never did that.

    This is a guy who makes the offense go, and some people want to pay him less than the market value because, "he doesn't call other people off". 

    Pffft.   

    You reduced my position to one small part of it. Shame on you.

    Pfft!

    90% of my position is based on his .350 career OBP. He does not make up for that with a great SLG%. Yes the SBs and top 25% fielding does upgrade his value, but in my opinion not to the $18M+ a year status reserved for great players who excell in more than just baserunning and running down fly balls.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    [/QUOTE]

    Whoa, there big guy.  Don't go taking all of this personally.  I specifically didn't quote any of your posts because I respect your opinion and your take on this topic.  My post was directed to other posters to remind them that there are opinions that differ from yours, and the reasons for that difference.

    I'm not going to change my mind, and neither are you.  I'm good with that.  Smile 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    you are a like a saint to do this for free. Or do they slip you tickets?  But , how do you get to the games?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    All of my contents from Red Sox management has been professional, from the communications end. Anyone remember "Crawford will bat #3" ceremony. Anyway, each time I've been contacted it's for Red Sox managment PR purposes. And, of course, they've foolishly disagreed with me on numerous roster construction issues. They did agree with me on releasing DMac, too soon, though, and they reversed course after reading my comments. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Sorry.  If forgot.  It's all about you and your opinions. 

    Ya know what this forum needs?  More emoticons.  Like right now I wish I had one of those "eye roll" ones.

    Laughing     Laughing     Laughing 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Does your chauffer have to stay in the limo?  Or, do you chain your trike to a sign?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Notin, you just made my case better than I could have made it, with the mental gymnastics about "slot money if we sign Ellsbury instead of the other Buster Olney FA names for 2013" 

     

    It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I know they read my posts, Notin, I've had numerous replies from members of management.

    As for whether they agree with them, I'll simply point to Crawford on crediblity. 

    I've noted that you, and perhaps Red Sox management, disagree with my valuation on letting Ellsbury go to another MLB team's payroll and move on with Victorino and Bradley and the draft compensation and spend all or part of the costs not spent on Ellsbury, spend that for other roster construction needs that will have a greater net roster construction improvement impact than getting Ellsbury's declining years of early 30's and middle 30's for around 100 million or more. 

    Speed / Age

    OPS

    Do the obvious and Let Ellsbury go.

    Frankly, I'll enjoy it more if they spend 100 million or more and keep Crawbust.

    [/QUOTE]

     



    LOL. :)

     

    Oh boy!  Now the stiff onbe truly believes he's receiving messages from RS management????

     

    this is padded room time boys.  Let's leave the poor old guy alone!!!!   This is not fun anymore!

     

    the guy clearly needs some help!!!!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    [/QUOTE]

    LOL. :)

     

    Oh boy!  Now the stiff onbe truly believes he's receiving messages from RS management????

     

    this is padded room time boys.  Let's leave the poor old guy alone!!!!   This is not fun anymore!

     

    the guy clearly needs some help!!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    This at least explains he absence from the forums during that period.  He started getting the messages from the Sox just after the aliens who abducted him returned him to earth. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Fire, your bus is in front of ther house, so get up those stairs and go

     

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