Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Notin, you just made my case better than I could have made it, with the mental gymnastics about "slot money if we sign Ellsbury instead of the other Buster Olney FA names for 2013" 

     

    It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I know they read my posts, Notin, I've had numerous replies from members of management.

    As for whether they agree with them, I'll simply point to Crawford on crediblity. 

    I've noted that you, and perhaps Red Sox management, disagree with my valuation on letting Ellsbury go to another MLB team's payroll and move on with Victorino and Bradley and the draft compensation and spend all or part of the costs not spent on Ellsbury, spend that for other roster construction needs that will have a greater net roster construction improvement impact than getting Ellsbury's declining years of early 30's and middle 30's for around 100 million or more. 

    Speed / Age

    OPS

    Do the obvious and Let Ellsbury go.

    Frankly, I'll enjoy it more if they spend 100 million or more and keep Crawbust.

    [/QUOTE]
    Ok, now. THAT is funny.  I'm sure Theo, Larry, Bill James, John Henry and Farrell rush to their computers every morning to see what Softy has said.  Next on the agenda there's a meeting to discuss it, and then they respond asking for more of his opinions.  ROFL

    And they have an ongoing correspondence with him regarding who to sign, who to let go, and what the batting order should be.  Self-important much??

    Sorry, I can't type this without literally LOL.  I wish this forum had an emoticon of the little guy lying on his side laughing because I'd put a string of them across the bottom of this post. Instead I'll have to settle for this:

    Laughing   Laughing   Laughing 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I would be very surprised if any of them knew or cared about this message board at all.  

     

    When I used to post at ESPN.com, Seth Mnookin used to post there, although it took some detective work to figure it out.  (In the off-season prior to 2005, there was a poster on the message boards at the Sox board at espn.com who relayed every off-season move the Sox made and were going to make prior to them happening.   After a while, people started looking forward to his posts, as they were always 100% on the spot.  Some anonymous poster there figured him to be Seth Mnookin, based on some entries in Seth's blog.)

     

    There might be a message board soemwhre on the internet where the Sox mangement reads the fans, but there are probably hundreds of Red Sox message boards out there.  To think this is the definitive one is unrealisitic.   (Many GMs do admit and players admit they read mlbtraderumors.com.  Some players have actually discovered they were traded by reading that site.)

     

    Maybe they are at Sons of Sam Horn?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Notin, you just made my case better than I could have made it, with the mental gymnastics about "slot money if we sign Ellsbury instead of the other Buster Olney FA names for 2013" 

     

    It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I know they read my posts, Notin, I've had numerous replies from members of management.

    As for whether they agree with them, I'll simply point to Crawford on crediblity. 

    I've noted that you, and perhaps Red Sox management, disagree with my valuation on letting Ellsbury go to another MLB team's payroll and move on with Victorino and Bradley and the draft compensation and spend all or part of the costs not spent on Ellsbury, spend that for other roster construction needs that will have a greater net roster construction improvement impact than getting Ellsbury's declining years of early 30's and middle 30's for around 100 million or more. 

    Speed / Age

    OPS

    Do the obvious and Let Ellsbury go.

    Frankly, I'll enjoy it more if they spend 100 million or more and keep Crawbust.

    [/QUOTE]
    Ok, now. THAT is funny.  I'm sure Theo, Larry, Bill James, John Henry and Farrell rush to their computers every morning to see what Softy has said.  Next on the agenda there's a meeting to discuss it, and then they respond asking for more of his opinions.  ROFL

    And they have an ongoing correspondence with him regarding who to sign, who to let go, and what the batting order should be.  Self-important much??

    Sorry, I can't type this without literally LOL.  I wish this forum had an emoticon of the little guy lying on his side laughing because I'd put a string of them across the bottom of this post. Instead I'll have to settle for this:

    Laughing   Laughing   Laughing 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I would be very surprised if any of them knew or cared about this message board at all.  

     

    When I used to post at ESPN.com, Seth Mnookin used to post there, although it took some detective work to figure it out.  (In the off-season prior to 2005, there was a poster on the message boards at the Sox board at espn.com who relayed every off-season move the Sox made and were going to make prior to them happening.   After a while, people started looking forward to his posts, as they were always 100% on the spot.  Some anonymous poster there figured him to be Seth Mnookin, based on some entries in Seth's blog.)

     

    There might be a message board soemwhre on the internet where the Sox mangement reads the fans, but there are probably hundreds of Red Sox message boards out there.  To think this is the definitive one is unrealisitic.   (Many GMs do admit and players admit they read mlbtraderumors.com.  Some players have actually discovered they were traded by reading that site.)

     

    Maybe they are at Sons of Sam Horn?

    [/QUOTE]

    i remember that on espn.com...i think that guy on espn went by..Mnice or somthing like that...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Notin, you just made my case better than I could have made it, with the mental gymnastics about "slot money if we sign Ellsbury instead of the other Buster Olney FA names for 2013" 

     

    It is very unlikely they read your posts on the matter, and even less likely they agree with them...

    I know they read my posts, Notin, I've had numerous replies from members of management.

    As for whether they agree with them, I'll simply point to Crawford on crediblity. 

    I've noted that you, and perhaps Red Sox management, disagree with my valuation on letting Ellsbury go to another MLB team's payroll and move on with Victorino and Bradley and the draft compensation and spend all or part of the costs not spent on Ellsbury, spend that for other roster construction needs that will have a greater net roster construction improvement impact than getting Ellsbury's declining years of early 30's and middle 30's for around 100 million or more. 

    Speed / Age

    OPS

    Do the obvious and Let Ellsbury go.

    Frankly, I'll enjoy it more if they spend 100 million or more and keep Crawbust.

    [/QUOTE]

     



    LOL. :)

     

    Oh boy!  Now the stiff onbe truly believes he's receiving messages from RS management????

     

    this is padded room time boys.  Let's leave the poor old guy alone!!!!   This is not fun anymore!

     

    the guy clearly needs some help!!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    We all know it's a lie, because with an ego the size of Montana, you know softy would have mentioned this 2 thousand times by now had it been true.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    the fact you're even discussing it, just saying

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Whoa, there big guy.  Don't go taking all of this personally.  I specifically didn't quote any of your posts because I respect your opinion and your take on this topic.  My post was directed to other posters to remind them that there are opinions that differ from yours, and the reasons for that difference.

    I guess I did take it too personally, but as far as I know, I am the only one who has countered the "Ellsbury's injuries are a fluke" argument with the fact that he didn't call off Beltre and that that injury was avoidable and not a "fluke". Youe ended your post with something that seemed pinpointed to my comment right before your post:

    This is a guy who makes the offense go, and some people want to pay him less than the market value because, "he doesn't call other people off". 

    Pffft.   

     

     

    I'm not going to change my mind, and neither are you.  I'm good with that.  Smile  

    I'm fine with us having differing opinions. paying Ellsbury huge money is not an easy decision. 

    Nobody but softy thinks this team will be better without Ellsbury leading off.

    I certainly want Ellsbury back, but I always look at any signing within the big picture. I'm not implying you don't, but I always operate under the assumption that when you spen huge somewhere, you sacrifice elsewhere. There is not doubt that signing Ellsbury to $90M+/5 or $105m+/6 is going to mean we have to let some of our current players go that we could have kept, and/or not upgrade at several need areas over the next 5-6 years.

    When deciding on paying big for Ellsbury, the equation is really more like this:

    Ellsbury in CF for 5-6 years at a high cost

    vs

    Victorino and JBJ in CF

    $90M++ spent on a RF'er and 1 or two of other needy areas, such as a C (Salty?), 1B, and RP'ers plus a draft pick.

    Viewed in this light, it certainly is not a no brainer to pay huge for Ellsbury.

    When you look to make a big decision like this, of course you look at all the plusses and minuses of the player himself, and then view the alternative options you have within your own system or the possible costs of going outside the system to replace that player.

    A) The value of Ellsbury:

    OBP for a leadoff hitter: Good, maybe very good, but not great.

    SLG for a leadoff hitter: not a big necessity, but when we saw it in 2011, we recognized the value of having a number one hitter come up late in a game and be able to crank one from the 1 slot. Ellsbury is not a great SLG% guy at all.

    Defense: He is anywhere from the 3rd or 4th best CF'er in MLB to maybe the 7th or 8th best. That makes him a top 10% CF'er to about a top 25% CF'er. I guess one could think he is "great" on defense, and I wouldn't argue with "close to great", but I do not view him as "great", when he has a huge weakness with his arm.

    Baserunning: Great. I won't get into the running into outs not associated with SBs as softy used to harp on, because I think jacoby has greatly improved on his running instincts. He is a great baserunner and causes issues with pitchers when the following batters are up (not just Victorino). This is a huge plus that is often minimized by the likes of softy, who then pounced on VTek and Salty for not throwing runners out, as if SBs suddenly became a big issue when the opps do it.

    1 great (running), 1 close to great (defense), 1 good to very good (OBP), 1 so-so (SLG). I don't see this as a massive longterm contract choice worth offering. I'm OK with others thinking differently.

     

    B) The alternatives: one must look first at within the system. Let's assume we do not sign another OF'er and go with something like this instead:

    LF: Nava vs RHPs/Gomes vs LHPs and some RHPs (Carp at times)

    CF: JBJ most of the time

    RF: Vict most of the time, but CF sometime/Nava when Vict is in CF (Gomes/Carp emergency) or possibly Brentz at some point later in 2014.

    The trade off is Ellsbury vs JBJ and more playing time for Nava (possibly vs LHPs: not good), Gomes (possibly vs RHPs: not great), or Carp (possibly in RF: ughh!), or Brentz (a huge question mark).

    Nobody knows for sure what JBJ will do for us beyond being a plus defensive CF'er. It's hard to quantify the value differential, and therein lies the problem with evaluating any alternative plans. I'm not saying you are one, but I do feel some posters think, "I know what Ellsbury brings to the table: I don't know what JBJ will do, and he might stink, so we need to sign Ellsbury to avoid a possible huge downgrade in CF". This is certainly a valid opinion, but one should gauge what the value differential is likely to be, not the worst differential it might be. If JBJ struggles, we can always move Victorino over to CF and give more playing time to Nava, Gomes, Carp and maybe even Brentz, or we could pick up a Posodnick type of guy. Now what is the differential? Still large, but not huge.

    Then, you have to look at what can the "Ellsbury money" be spent on elsewhere, and are those upgrade differentials larger than the downgrade differential from Ellsbury to the others. The contract Ellsbury will command can buy a lot of upgrades, and/or help us keep Napoli and Salty instead of maybe just one.

    Then, you have to place a value on the comp picked gained when Ellsbury walks.

    Add it all up, subtract it all up and see what is the best for the team as a whole.

     

    C) The alternatives from outside the system: I'll bring up one possible . Please do not take this as a position I am for or against. I am meerly bringing up a possible alternative plan to signing Ellsbury and not going with JBJ in  CF 2014.

    Sign a bridge player like Beltran for significantly less than Ellsbury and for 2-3 years less time. Move Victorino to CF and give JBJ time to mature into a MLB ready CF'er, at whcih time one could move Beltran to LF or trade him. Use the savings to keep Salty (assuming that on the Ellsbury plan we kept Napoli and ditched Salty). On both plans, we can assume we keep Napoli. Now, the comparative looks like this:

    CF: Ellsbury, RF: Victorino, C: Lava/Ross/Vazquez

    vs

    CF: Victorino, RF: Beltran, C Salty, plus a comp draft pick in 2014

    Same financial cost.

    Plus: A much better catcher. No longterm commitment to Beltran. A draft pick gained.

    Minus: A drop off from Ellsbury to Beltran.

    Other choices might be Choo, Pence, DeJesus, or upgrades to the pen and IF, instead of getting a RF'er.

     

    I do not mean to focus on the negatives of Ellsbury. The "not calling off other players" point was not meant as a major reason not to re-sign Ellsbury. The first time I brought it up was after the pro-sign Ellsbury camp kept bringing up that his injuries were "flukes" or "Theo's fault not Ellsbury's". In my strong opinion, one of his injuries was a direct result of his negligence or recklessness, and since that time, I have not observed an improvement in that particular behavior. Does it mean he will get hurt again as a result of not ever calling off other charging players? Probably not, but I do think the risk is heightened with him vs most other CF'ers. 

    I don't agree with softy's view that the Ellsbury profile player type declines in his early 30's. There are plenty of examples of his type of player doing well into their mid and late 30's, but one can expect a slight decline after a couple years.

    It's not an easy call, but it will be the call that sets into motion what happens and doesn't happen at other positions on this team.

    There's a chance the luxury tax limit will be passed this winter, and we may sign Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and a RP or two. We then reset the cap after 2014 when lackey gets minimum wage and a few other players drop off the books, and hopefull the kids take their places with no decline in production value.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    With Ellsbury, it comes down to how much the Sox really want to keep him. The money should not be an issue. They have the money. To think that the Sox could be outbid by Seattle is ridiculous. Let's just say that 18 mil a year is what it takes. They are already paying him 9 mil . Just letting Drew walk, and putting Bogaerts at short would free up the cash. If they could unload Dempster's contract, it would be even easier. So , it is not that they can' t afford it. He is in his prime and his performance should hold up for the next few years. The question is , do they want to make the commitment ? We will find out. My guess is that they do not. 

     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to The4040club's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With Ellsbury, it comes down to how much the Sox really want to keep him. The money should not be an issue. They have the money. To think that the Sox could be outbid by Seattle is ridiculous. Let's just say that 18 mil a year is what it takes. They are already paying him 9 mil . Just letting Drew walk, and putting Bogaerts at short would free up the cash. If they could unload Dempster's contract, it would be even easier. So , it is not that they can' t afford it. He is in his prime and his performance should hold up for the next few years. The question is , do they want to make the commitment ? We will find out. My guess is that they do not. 

    [/QUOTE]


    I wish they would hand him a blank check and let him fill in the amount but I doubt it will happen.  His value is going up all the time and most likely will go up even more starting tonight.  The sox will not get caught in a bidding war and will take their chances on the very inexpensive jbj.

    [/QUOTE]
    The Sox will lose. It will take JBJ a couple of years to get really used to MLB Pitching. Also all he does is walk, which is nice. He dosesn't advance without a hit. Not a good basestealer, so Pitcher doesn't have to worry about him. Concentrate on batter.
    A great lead-off batter has speed, without it almost useless. You need other batters to advance you.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With Ellsbury, it comes down to how much the Sox really want to keep him. The money should not be an issue. They have the money. To think that the Sox could be outbid by Seattle is ridiculous. Let's just say that 18 mil a year is what it takes. They are already paying him 9 mil . Just letting Drew walk, and putting Bogaerts at short would free up the cash. If they could unload Dempster's contract, it would be even easier. So , it is not that they can' t afford it. He is in his prime and his performance should hold up for the next few years. The question is , do they want to make the commitment ? We will find out. My guess is that they do not. 

    [/QUOTE]



    If we let Drew walk and pay Ellsbury the top bid amount, we cannot sign Salty and Napoli and stay under the luxury limit without doing some other cost cutting moves.

    Unloading Dempster is an option.

    Restructuring Lackey's deal to even out the luxury cost hit over 2 years instead of one is another option, but it can be done.

    The high cost of Ellsbury, however, may come back to haunt us further down the road as new high need areas arise, and money becomes tight. I know you don't go for the "money is tight" argument, and you have a point when talking about Henry as the owner, but it does appear that the sky is NOT the limit on our payroll budget, so what is spent in one area, is taken from others.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury

    Not saying Ellsbury should have caught the blooper that fell in front of him, but go back and watch the replay, and it is obvious to see that other Sox fielders were breaking towards the ball before Jacoby even moved a muscle.

    The camera angle was perfect.

    It's not easy for a CF'er to get a quick read at times, and all CF'ers get tough reads at times, but I thought I'd point it out to those who want to go back and look... closely.

     

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