Ellsbury's Worth

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Ellsbury's Worth

     Not sure whether anyone has posted this article http://www.nesn/2011/07/jacoby-ellsbury-outperforming-salary-by-about-20-million.html but I found it of some interest and worthy of discussion. Since I'm not especially talented at operating in cyberspace, it's not clear to me that you'll be able to access the piece, but the gist of it is readily apparent. Perhaps someone more clever than I can figure out a way to post it. Sorry if I've mucked this up!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Diamondtalk. Show Diamondtalk's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    It depends on what Scott Boras thinks of Ellsbury's worth.   If he were a free agent right now, Boras would want Crawford money and nothing less.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    Ellsbury's clock is down to 2.3. Either he's traded before next spring or his trade value will "time drop off a cliff". He will be gone in 2.3 years, for certain. No guarantee of more than a draft pick, and CBA no guarantee of that. Ellsbury 2012 will not be Ellsbury 2011, anymore than Crawford of 2010 was Crawford of 2011, and Crawford of 2011 will not be Crawford of 2012.

    6-7 per year or 12 to 14M is the cost to pay for Ellsbury's FA ticket.

    I don't think it makes any sense to spend 26 to 27M on Crawford and Ellsbury for the next 2 years. Theo made the mistake on Crawford, he now needs to sleep in that bed and use Ellsbury and another couple of players to trade for  and extend Kemp and apply the 12 to 14M as payments towards Kemp. If Crawford in 2012 and 2013 can't do his career averages, which will match any average Ellsbury will be in 2012 and 2013, then Theo needs to be fired. Regardless, pretty obvious where this needs to go. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    It is pretty obvious that the Red Sox will offer Ells an extension that Boras will turn down (likely 4/60 or 5/80) this winter.

    Then Ells will return next season and give us around .310/.370/.520 with 20 HR's and 50 steals again. He steadily improved his first 2 years in the league and this, his true 3rd season at age 27, is him entering his prime and the norms we should expect.

    The Sox will then offer an extension of like 5/90 or 6/105 after 2012. If Ells turns them down again in his persuit of free agency/CC $, than, if I were GM, I'd trade him next winter and use that 6/105 towards Kemp, who will be a free agent.

    What is idiotic is any notion that you trade Ells, a left-handed Kemp, and others, this offseason, when you can get one more year of all-star play from Ells, then get Kemp for free the year after and trade Ells then, at a time the needs of this team over the next half decade will have become more clear. 

    Meanwhile, LA prob has ZERO interest in dealing with Boras and losing Ells in 2 years. They should either extend Kemp this winter if they solve their massive $ issues, or trade him for elite prospects.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    Crawford over the next 5 years should be a .285/.360 guy who gets 15 HR's, 7-8 triples, 34-38 and 35-45 steals a year as a Gold glove left fielder.

    As a 6-7 hitter with simply 'average' power, he is certianly way overpaid at 20 million. Theo needs to get creative in finding ways to get power out of RF. But it certainly helps that we went from thinking we had a 12-14 HR CFer to now having a 22-26 HR CFer.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from CTJake14. Show CTJake14's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    I think there is a much better chance we end up w/ Ethier after 2012 rather than Kemp (not saying E>K) due to the Pedroia best friend connection. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    The question is would a team give him Crawford $?

    It's too early to tell - a lot can happen in 2 years.....Ellsbury should take the 75-90 million he could get now and enjoy Boston and his teammates......

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    The way he plays, he would be taking a big chance not signing a big deal within the next 2 years..If hes not greedy..i think he could survive the rest of his life with a 6/90 deal..
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from softylaw. Show softylaw's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    Then Ells will return next season and give us around .310/.370/.520 with 20 HR's and 50 steals again.

    I'd bet the farm he doesn't get 20 homers or 50 steals or .37O OBP in 2012, and doesn't look like 50 steal this year, and may not get .370 OPB this year.

    Kemp's right handed, speaking of "what's idiotic". Quit when you are behind, you don't know what you are talking about, as usual.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury's Worth:
    Ellsbury's clock .... gone in 2.3 years...Crawford of 2012... Theo.....Kemp..... Theo needs to be fired. Posted by softylaw


    Blah blah blah.

    If Ellsbury is a depreciating asset to the Sox because they only have "control" for another 2.3 years i.e. can't resign him....wouldn't it be fair to say the other 29 teams are also aware of that?  That the other 29 teams would only be willing to swap assets worth 2.3 seasons of what they think Ellsbury will produce?  That seems reasonable to me.

    So the - your - issue is that you think it's a "sell high" scenario....as you've stated - consistently and, to date, erroneously - for four years.

    For what it's worth, I don't think you're as stupid as you seem....I think you take a perverse pride in defending the indefensible under the bogus flag of "contrarianism".
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury's Worth:
    In Response to Re: Ellsbury's Worth : Blah blah blah. If Ellsbury is a depreciating asset to the Sox because they only have "control" for another 2.3 years i.e. can't resign him....wouldn't it be fair to say the other 29 teams are also aware of that?  That the other 29 teams would only be willing to swap assets worth 2.3 seasons of what they think Ellsbury will produce?  That seems reasonable to me. So the - your - issue is that you think it's a "sell high" scenario....as you've stated - consistently and, to date, erroneously - for four years. For what it's worth, I don't think you're as stupid as you seem....I think you take a perverse pride in defending the indefensible under the bogus flag of "contrarianism".
    Posted by SonicsMonksLyresVicars


    Join the crowd. The forum is well aware of this. Next step is to ignore him.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    Right now, I'm putting Jake ahead of AGon, who just struck out on three pitches at Fenway in a tight ball game with the bases loaded and the Sox and Yankees tied for the best record in the AL.  Jake, meanwhile, knocked in the first run with a double off the wall. 

    That is totally unfair of course, but this year it does seem that Jakes gets timely hits.  Forget the walkoff hits, I mean late innings hits that help the Sox rally. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from canetime. Show canetime's posts

    Re: Ellsbury's Worth

    In Response to Re: Ellsbury's Worth:
    Then Ells will return next season and give us around .310/.370/.520 with 20 HR's and 50 steals again . I'd bet the farm he doesn't get 20 homers or 50 steals or .37O OBP in 2012, and doesn't look like 50 steal this year, and may not get .370 OPB this year. Kemp's right handed, speaking of "what's idiotic". Quit when you are behind, you don't know what you are talking about, as usual.
    Posted by softylaw


    YOU ALREADY LOST THE FARM ON ELLSBURY<BUT KEEP HOPEING />YOU CAN NOT STAND TO BE SO WRONG CAN YOU?
     
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