ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:

    I was wondering when Moon would weigh in. This package is less than what he proposed some month(s)? ago, so I am not surprised that he would give it a thumbs up.

    While I wouldn't want to lose Bogaerts, it has to be a fair trade on both sides. This would be OK in my book as well.

    This would certainly fit into Bill's blockbuster trade idea...

    Hopefully by dealing Ellsbury and perhaps an outfield prospect (we will have Upton and Victorino in the outfield for 3 years), we can get a first base prospect or pitching prospect.




    This is more than I proposed since it includes Barnes- someone I prefer to keep over Bradley and Bogaerts.

    I'd love to keep Bogaerts, but he will probably be best at 3B or 1B, and it will take some time to develop there.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from slaaonta71. Show slaaonta71's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    yeah i see  why that guy aint a GM anymore  lol  thank goodness he,s not our GM  i don,t think he will be  getting a job as one anytime soon  what a foolish  fool

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

     

    Personally, I am against trading for Upton on many fronts. It would go against everything the Sox have done this off season.

    Yeah, it goes against building for 2014 & 2015- something no move has done so far this winter. You are right.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Leftymcrighty. Show Leftymcrighty's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    I wouldn't trade Bogaerts even up for Upton and his attitude, let alone tow other prospects.

    I wouldn't mind Upton in RF, but not for Bogaerts.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:

      Mark Schlereth is a disgrace. ESPN Stinks.



    This was Clever, If you meant to do it

    No way to I trade Bogy and Barnes for 3 years of the inconsistent, but with "monster potential" J. Upton. Is he going to be the difference this team needs? the answer is NO. Dont give up 2 top prospects for him.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    No way to I trade Bogy and Barnes for 3 years of the inconsistent, but with "monster potential" J. Upton. Is he going to be the difference this team needs? the answer is NO. Dont give up 2 top prospects for him.

    If three years of an inconsistent 25-year-old Justin Upton is not worth two top prospects, I assume one year of an inconsistent 29-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury is not worth a single top prospect.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    If the Sox are crazy enough to trade ellsbury - we better get 3 - 4 TOP prospects in return.  He certainly shouldn't be packaged WITH prospects to get Upton, who is not as good as ellsbury.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    If the Sox are crazy enough to trade ellsbury - we better get 3 - 4 TOP prospects in return.  He certainly shouldn't be packaged WITH prospects to get Upton, who is not as good as ellsbury.

     

     




    i disagree with that post except where you said big numbah two > J Upton.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    If the Sox are crazy enough to trade ellsbury - we better get 3 - 4 TOP prospects in return.  He certainly shouldn't be packaged WITH prospects to get Upton, who is not as good as ellsbury. 


    Good luck with that.

    At age 29, Jacoby Ellsbury has posted WAR* of 9.4, 4.2, 2.4, 1.5, 1.3 and -0.2.

    At age 25, Justin Upton has posted WAR of 6.4, 4.8, 3.0, 2.5, 0.8 and -0.4.

    Ellsbury's outlier 2011 season is primarily what separates him from Upton, who has not been as inconsistent as Ellsbury (pardon the double negative).

    * Wins Above Replacement, in descending order, as reported at FanGraphs

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    No way to I trade Bogy and Barnes for 3 years of the inconsistent, but with "monster potential" J. Upton. Is he going to be the difference this team needs? the answer is NO. Dont give up 2 top prospects for him.


    If three years of an inconsistent 25-year-old Justin Upton is not worth two top prospects, I assume one year of an inconsistent 29-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury is not worth a single top prospect.

     




    No, hes not. you would have to add to it to get a top prospect.

    Did you assume I would overvalue Ellsbury like some? Just like Upton, Ellsbury has huge potential and weve seen flashes of it, but no consistency. they are totally different situations though, so they arent really comparable..

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Uptons career has been no more than inconsistent the numbers dont lie. Like his brother BJ, hes been Up and down with clubhouse issues, albeit better than BJ.

    Maybe the dbacks would be interested in Brock Holt who we just aquired from Pitt. Hes a solid hitter and can play middle infield. Bogy should not be traded for Upton.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Upton at this point in his career is bording on disappoint. It is really hard for any team to give up a lot on a player that had a Cody Ross type season. It is not about attitude or anything thing else he just has not produced enough to warrent 3 top prospects. He is going to hit 15-20 homers at 280 he is not a cornerstone player. He is like Trot Nixon good player but if he is hitting higher than 5th you aren't going to score a ton of runs. He had one great season, funny enough his base year was 2011 like Ellsbury and had very similar numbers.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    his brother BJ, hes been Up and down with clubhouse issues,

    No one has had more "clubhouse issues" than Ellsbury.

    Inconsistent is not showing up for work. J. Upton is a 130 to 150 games per season very young talent. He comes to work ready to play baseball.

    Maybe the DBacks will take S. Drew back if the Red Sox pay half the deal, and count that in the J. Upton trade.



    Ellsbury has bee injured and thus can be considered inconsistent due to injury. inconsistent is also playing good one year and bad the next, Like Upton. Hes done this for the last 4 years, with a couple clubhouse issues thrown in. hitting an OPS above 800 one year, then below the next. Just like everyone says about Ellsbury, is he the 30HR guy who belongs in the middle of the lineup or is he the speedster with great defense and splits againt LH & RHP to be a leadoff hitter. With Upton, Is he he 30HR guy who will hit 280-300 with an OPS close to .900 or is he the poor defense, 15HR 250-270 hitter with clubhouse issues. 

    Neither can be considered consistent.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from slaaonta71. Show slaaonta71's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    helll  no  keep the kids  none of this trade sounds good at  all  i would  take a chance on the prospects  . i don,t even care if it,s for a pitcher just not worth it to  give  theses prospects up

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to slaaonta71's comment:

    helll  no  keep the kids  none of this trade sounds good at  all  i would  take a chance on the prospects  . i don,t even care if it,s for a pitcher just not worth it to  give  theses prospects up




    If AZ would take say ranauto, Jacobs and Holt, I would do it. But we all know thats not going to happen, and it just shows what I think hes worth right now.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    i think some of the posters on here have no idea what the cost of players is in todays market. look at a few of the trades that have gone down lately. RA dickey a 38 yr old knuckleballer who has had 2 good years netted 2 of the 3 top prospects in the jays system, one of which was there #1 prospect. James shields, a 30 yr old pitcher who is coming off 2 good years but before that had 2 not so good ones, netted the top prospect in baseball will meyers and other prospects. justin upton on the other hand is 25, is 2 year removed from a season where he hit .289, 31 homers, and 88 rbi with little line up protection. now that being said, if the d-backs insist on boegarts, then they dont get matt barnes as well, i would say something along the lines of boegarts, doubront and a lesser spect is a reasonable deal for upton. justin upton playing half his games in fenway has 40 home run potential. thats worth a top prospect. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to redsoxpride34's comment:

    i think some of the posters on here have no idea what the cost of players is in todays market. look at a few of the trades that have gone down lately. RA dickey a 38 yr old knuckleballer who has had 2 good years netted 2 of the 3 top prospects in the jays system, one of which was there #1 prospect. James shields, a 30 yr old pitcher who is coming off 2 good years but before that had 2 not so good ones, netted the top prospect in baseball will meyers and other prospects. justin upton on the other hand is 25, is 2 year removed from a season where he hit .289, 31 homers, and 88 rbi with little line up protection. now that being said, if the d-backs insist on boegarts, then they dont get matt barnes as well, i would say something along the lines of boegarts, doubront and a lesser spect is a reasonable deal for upton. justin upton playing half his games in fenway has 40 home run potential. thats worth a top prospect. 




    I don't think two bad trades has changed the value of prospects. Two is not enough of a trend. You need more evidence then that. And you might want to lay off the RBI totals when touting players. Especially when they total 88. Not very persuasive.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Why is no one looking at Kubel for RF?

    He's a 20 + HR, 90 RBI, .506 Slg., .325 OBP and he's 30, signed for '13 with a team opt and player opt fopr '14.

    Who would they want--let's talk: Bailey, Ells, Lava, Brentz and Webster/Barnes for Kubel, Goldschmidt and a prospect.

    That covers 1 B and RF--Ells and Nap are not back--Net savings about $10-12; savings used for a starting pitcher.

    If we are shopping with the D'backs I would love to get Ziegler for our pen--maybe Breslow or Miller?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Upton had hit more than 30HRs once.  I know he's still young but I still don't understand why we have to give up our #1 & 2 prospects for him.  If Ben pulls the trigger on this, I think he will be more hated than Theo.  

    I'll be willing to understand to some degree on trading our #1 & 2 prospects if we were getting Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, or Strasburg.  But Justin Upton?? This is just one of those time killing rumors from one of those writers who wants attention.  

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Count me among the group that would love to see Justin Upton in a Red Sox uniform. Comparing him to Ellsbury is irrelent in the big picture.

    In arriving at what would be fair value in return for his services. The aquiring team has to elimanate the word potential, from the conversation and look at his current production and growth curve since arriving in Arizona. What you arrive at is. In Upton you get a player that is just now entering his prime. One that is a streaky hitter where is upside is huge but is prone to prolonged slumps. Who has had to learn to play the outfiled in the big leagues and to date hasn't shown that he's a threat to win a gold glove anytime soon. Who'll steal you 20 bases and come to the park everyday ready to play...

    So if you look at his numbers over the last three seasons by month. Therein lyes some of the answers to his value and it's fairy obvious, that his inabilty to consistantly put the ball in play has an adverse effect on his overall numbers. When his K/W ratio is close to or below 2 to 1 he's an impact player (see below). Conversley when it's 2.4 to 1 or above he's still a productive player, but not a guy that warrants hitting in the middle of the lineup.

    April 244-342-425-767 (K/W 76-34 or 2.23 to 1)

    May  263-333-458-791 (K/W 84-30 or 2.8 to 1)

    June 344-430-514-944 (K/W 67-35 or 1.9 to 1)

    July 286-371-516-887 (K/W 63-40 1.5 to 1)

    Aug 268-335-417-752 (K/W 65-27 2.4 to 1)

    Sept 275-344-507-847 (K/W 42-18 2.3 to 1)

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    For what it's worth, Justin Upton ranked No. 23 on the list of Top 50 trade values compiled in July by FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-trade-value-25-21/

    Cameron ranked Upton No. 5 the previous year.

    Dustin Pedroia at No. 34 was the only Red Sox player on the July 2012 list.

    Adrian Gonzalez failed to make the July 2010 list of Top 50 trade values (the ranking that preceded his trade to the Red Sox):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-trade-value-5-1/

    Cameron explained his omission of Adrian Gonzalez:

    Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego --There's nothing wrong with Gonzalez's skillset, but he's a case where contracts come into play. He's a bargain for 2011 at just $4.5 million in salary, but then he's a free agent and he's looking for a huge, huge paycheck. The Padres would get a lot for one year of Gonzalez, but I don't think any of the teams who have guys on this list would swap them for the time that is left on his contract.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-trade-value-introduction/

    Upton was No. 11 in July 2010.

    Adrian Gonzalez ranked No. 45 in July 2009:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap/

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:

    For what it's worth, Justin Upton ranked No. 23 on the list of top trade values compiled in July by FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-trade-value-25-21/

    Cameron ranked Upton No. 5 the previous year.

    Dustin Pedroia at No. 34 was the only Red Sox player on the July 2012 list.



    Seems about right given his age, contract terms and ability...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    seanne,

    It's about the real vs percieved value of the top two prospects...Lars Anderson was once our best prospect who hit his ceiling in AA and the list of can't miss prospects that fell short of expectations is far greater than the ones that actually made the grade and continued to progress and become productive big leaguers.

    In the end the Red Sox player development team (scouts & coaches) are the ones that understand the true upside potentail of the players. In Barnes, Bradley Jr and Boegharts we have three players that today are projectable big leaguers, none of whom is ready to make the jump in 2013. While I agree that Upton is not worthy of 2 blue chip prospects...not sure that any of the above fall into that catergory...As such given Upton's current production, age and that he's just now entering his prime. If we aquire him for 2 or 3 prospects and he continues to be a productive hitter for the next 3 years and none of the prospects reach thier ceilings or it takes them until the 2016 or 17 season to reach thier full potential in the short term then one could make an argument that the deal was worth it...However if say Boegharts or Bradly arrive in 2014 or 2015 and put up similar numbers to Uptons (no sure thing), then clearly the trade was not worth it...

    That's the risk reward of trading prospects for proven commodities...Which by the way is exactly what the Yankees do as a matter of coarse...See Granderson for Jackson...A trade that if you gave Cashman a do over I think he still makes....

     
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