In response to Beantowne's comment:
I think we're both making compelling arguments. however you appear to be stuck in the same mind set of hill55. while we can agree to disagree on the definition of consistency...I am not trying to arrive at nor argue which is the better player.
My point is that using monthly splits to determine consistency is totally arbitrary.
Ellsbury is a gold glove centerfielder and his stats place him among the best leadoff hitters the game.
Gold Glove Awards are near meaningless to me (see my Jeter rants). However, Ellsbury is a much better fielder than Upton.
Upton is a below average right fielder who is a middle of the pack #3 hitter. Who if he doesn't improve would be best suited to hit 5th...not too many five hole guys making 20M. What no one can project in the next two or three years is that either player will improve or regress.
You know as well as I do that FA contracts are signed as much for potential as actual past performance. I'd certainly think that if Victorino gets $13M x 3, Upton would get close to $20M x 3 if he was a FA at age 25/26.
Also, we are not sure Ellsbury will be our leadoff hitter in 2013, or where Upton would bat here in Boston. I know you do not want to compare apples to oranges, but I'd rather have Upton at leadoff than Ellsbury. I'd rather have Upton batting 3rd, 4th or 5th over jacoby as well...
Which is the more valuable to their respective teams cleary that would be the younger player under the teams control. However if you're looking for a lead off hitter to play center Ellsbury would then be more valuable....if you're looking for a corner outfielder that projects to be an above average 5 hole hitter....Upton's your man....
Now that we have Victorino, Upton would be vastly more valuable to the Sox not only for 2013, but for the the following 2 years as well.
Victorino in CF and Upton in RF is better than Ellsbury (CF) and Victorino (RF), and the 2014 & 2015 seasons tip the balance heavily to one side.