Re: ESPN Report: Sox Shallow Staff A Problem
posted at 3/21/2012 9:04 AM EDT
I'm a bit confused moon, but agree with packaging Salty if he starts the season well because I have always felt Lav is for real. As of right now Salty has little trade value in my opinion if you just go by last years offensive and defensive stats.
I agree on defense. He stunk even if you take away the Wakefield PBs. Those who look only at his CS% might argue otherwise, but I don't think anyone would trade for Salty because of his defense.
I disagree on the offense, and that is why I think his stock is higher than when we got him. Remember, that's not saying much. We got him for Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez and some cash. 2011 saw Salty play in the most games he ever played in and have the most PAs (386). He had his best OPS ever, although it was aided mostly by the more inferior Slg% number. Here's a look at some of his offensive numbers as compared to MLB catchers (out of the 33 catchers who had 250+ PAs in 2011):
13th in OPS .737
8th in Slg% .450
26th in OBP .288
A better way to look at it is like this: here are the team catching numbers:
Only 6 teams had a catcher OPS better than Salty's .737 OPS.
Only 4 teams had a better catcher Slg% than Salty's .750.
My guess is that there are a few GMs out there looking to improve their offense and thinking Salty has a good arm and can improve on defense enough to be worth trying to get.
If nobody wants to give up anything valuable for him, I'd keep Salty and trade Shoppach or send Salty to AAA on his last option.
The thing that confuses me is how important you "but even more so harness" felt Tek was to our pitchers, yet are willing to trade the only other catcher who has time in with our staff?
1) His "time with our staff" was not a success, so there is no indication he will do better. He actually did worse as the year went on. Yes, Lava could do even worse, but I think Salty did so poorly in that area, that Lava can't do much worse. (I will say that harness disagreed with me on this point last fall.)
2) Salty had almost no time with Beckett, so he has no "leg up" on Lava there. We have Bailey, Melancon, Doubront, Bowden and others that Salty has no or very little experience with as well.
3) Who does Salty have a lot experience with, but it won't help in 2012?
Wake 624 PAs by opps
There's over 2,100 PAs against 2011 pitchers here that Salty will not catch this year, probably won't catch this year, or didn't catch enough last year to say he has gained "experience" by having extended time catching these guys.
It's about 2,100 out of about 3,700 total PAs Salty caught last year.
When you consider Salty was 20th in catcher PAs in MLB last year, and over half of his experience was with pitchers he won't be catching this year, I don't see that as being a big plus in his favor. Minor, maybe, but not major.
I'm Ok with keeping Salty as insurance in case Lava fails or struggles, or in case Papi gets hurt and we need a DH. I just want to see Lava get his chance now, because I think he is better: now.