A compelling analysis from Jason Martinez on how the two teams stack up for 2013....I think his most flawed assumption here is that the Yanks will remain committed to remaining on budget to avoid the luxury tax...My own opinion is that the ALCS collapse, coupled with all those empty overpriced seats during the playoffs, will force Steingrabber and company to hit the "big free agent" route once again....Don't be surprised if Josh Hamilton and a number 2 starter are plucked up before spring training...The other issue is the fact that Boston might be a somewhat unattractive option for many free agents in the next year or two....But that is pure speculation, and might be a completely false premise...No matter how you slice it, this article is a somewhat reassuring tonic for Bosox fans....For Yankee fans, it is a bracing reminder of many negatives, including just how developmentally challenged (especially with regard to pitching) the Yankee farm system is....

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8545593/boston-red-sox-better-shape-new-york-yankees-mlb

The Yanks might actually be committed to getting under the luxury tax now. They would be looking at a 50% hit for exceeding the payroll cap. I thought I had read something about other penalties for exceeding the payroll limit too, but I can't find it now so maybe I was dreaming. :)

In response to carnie's comment:

Meanwhile, the rest of the league may be catapulting past the Red Sox and the Yankees.

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In response to pinstripezac's comment:

to the point of the article. the yanks are a really old team. they have a fair amount of work to do in the off season but the sox definitely have more IMO. the difficulty both teams are going to have building this offseason all depends on the market really.

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In response to mef429's comment:

They have a number of FA this year...

Ichiro

D.Lowe

Mo

Kuroda

Chavez

Martin

Garcia

Pettite

A. Jones

Ibanez

Qualls

Swisher

I see maybe Mo coming back if he chooses...Maybe Martin.

They need to talk with Cano, Granderson and Feliciano. All whom have options and could possibly sign longer term deals. If they just pick up cano and Grandersons options, you can add another 28mm to the payroll. Feliciano is another 4.5mm. Aardsma has an option too, but was based on 2012 performances.

with those 2 options picked up theyre at about 148mm.

Soriano may opt out if Mo is resigned, which will save another 12.5 after the 1.5mm buyout, so that would be a wash...

But lets call it 150mm

Arb cases include...Nix, cervelli (arb1)  Robertson 1.6mm, McGehee 2.5mm, Garner 2.8mm (arb2)  Chaimberlin 1.6mm, Logan 1.8mm, Hughes 3.2mm (arb3)

Im looking at arounf 20-25mm in arb cases...

So lets just say 175mm...

Im probably off by a couple million either way, but still, Its going to be very hard to say under the luxury tax threshold for this team without dumping a couple contracts they already have.

The Yankees will always be in the playoff hunt.  But not a World Series contender. 

Warning for both the Red Sox and Yankees: The A's, Rays, O's and Angels will be back and better in 2013. 

NY will be fine, they have a smart GM.

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The Yanks won 95 games in 2012, even with some major injuries and underperformances. They will not fade away that easily.

That being said, the Yanks have way more baseball generated resources than the Sox, but in this sense, te Sox gained a lot of ground by dumping the salaries(vs their value to the team) of Crawford, Beckett, Punto, and to a much lesser extent Gonzalez.

The Yanks are currently left with:

ARod: 13:$28M, 14:$25M,15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M (+$4M remaining in signing bonus payments & $6M for reaching 660 HRs and maybe 714, 755, and breaking the HR record).  ---His OPS has decline for 5 straight years from 1.067 to .783. Assuming he hits just 67 HRs over the next 5 years, he'll be paid $130M/5. If he hits 108 HRs in 5 years: $136M/5 and 109 HRs in 5 years or about 21 per year-not likely- $142M/5! He turns 38 next July.

Teixeira: 13-16:$22.5M annually -His OPS has also declined for 5 straight years from .963 to .807. He turns 33 next April.

CC Sabathia: 13-15:$23M annually, 16:$25M, 17:$25M vesting option ($5M buyout) + Perks. -Has not really shown decline. He turns 33 next July.

Jeter: 13:$17M, 14:$8M player option ($3M buyout) with possible bonuses. -Has not been over a .791 OPS in 3 years & only once in 5 years. His fielding has gone from bad to horrible. He just had a major injury that may further effect his already severely limited SS range. He turns 39 in June.

Big decisions to make on Mo Rivera ($15M), Swisher ($10.25M), Kuroda ($10M), Martin ($7.5M), plus the lost cost of Feliciano ($4M), Garcia ($4M), Suzuki, Lowe, Jones, Ibanez, Pettite, & Quals.

Last arb year for Hughes, Joba, and Logan. Second to last arb years for Gardner, McGehee & Robertson.

FAs after 2013 (salary for '13) : Cano ($15M), Soriano ($14M), & Granderson ($13M). 

In contrast, the Sox have "big decisions" on Papi ($14.6M) and Ross ($3M). We lose the cost of Dice-K ($10.3M), Cook, Padilla, Loney & Pods.

$11M to pay towards CC, Beckett, Punto and AGon.

About $31M/3 for Lackey (including the injury clause 2015 season at min cost).

Pedey: 13:$10M, 14:$10M, 15:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Lester: 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)

Buch: 13:$5.5M, 14:$7.7M, 15:$12M, 16:$13M club option ($0.245M buyout), 17:$13.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Final arb years: Ellsbury, Salty, Breslow, Sweeney & Hill.

The Yanks certainly have a stronger core of MLB ready players under team control for 2013, but the Sox have a lot of flex room and few albatrosses left over.

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