Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     

     



    No context at all.

     

     

     

    The differentials are pretty evenly split when viewed in the proper context.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Funny how you left off the next 7 pitchers, all who have a lot better ERA with Ross. And 6-7 have a better OPS aswell.

    No it's not "funny". I stopped at an already tiny sample size of 30 total IP on the season. Some of the sample sizes listed are less than 10 IP. Are you seriously thinking these sample sizes are large enough to mean anything of value?

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     

     

     



    No context at all.

     

     

     

     

    The differentials are pretty evenly split when viewed in the proper context.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Funny how you left off the next 7 pitchers, all who have a lot better ERA with Ross. And 6-7 have a better OPS aswell.

     

    No it's not "funny". I stopped at an already tiny sample size of 30 total IP on the season. Some of the sample sizes listed are less than 10 IP. Are you seriously thinking these sample sizes are large enough to mean anything of value?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    When combined, sure.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     




     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

    IRT your retort to Moon...David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

    Pitchers like throwing to Salty, they trust him. He doesnt cost the team games. He understands batters, tendencies, pitch framing, pitch caslling, and his pitchers. Ive talked to enough guys in MLB to know what they think of that stat (cera) and what they look for in a catcher. If he goes on the market this year you watch how many teams talk to him and what he will sign for.

    If they do go with Lav, I will hope he does great but I will still think that right now hes no where near as good as Salty is. Id dont even think he stays as a FT catcher, but thats just me.

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    When combined, sure.

    You have to be joking.

    Really, the only sample sizes large enough and balanced enough are

    Lester, Dempster and Buch

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles


    For me wait and see, he's a .240 hitter in July, .241 hitter in August, and .189 hitter in Sept/Oct.
    For his career. Lets see what he does.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     




     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    So this year, Salty has a worse CERA with 13 pitchers and better with just 3. And you showed it at 10-2 and 10-6 the last two seasons. Add it up and its 33-11 better ERA with the backup catcher. Thats pretty significant and pretty ugly.

    I count 1-1-1 (Lest/Demp/Buch) or 3-5 with sample sizes large enough to matter (even using the 9 pitchers listed, some sample sizes are 3, 4 and 5 IP), but you can see what you want to see.

    Didn't feel context was needed when we have gone over this a couple of times and the numbers are so extreme. As I said, when they are this extreme, the numbers will almost always come out looking ugly no matter the context. And the 13-3 this year is an example of that.

    Based on sample sizes lower than 5 IP. You are not being realistic here.

    Why not go back and compare the ERAs of pitchers with Salty last year vs this year. Is Salty getting better or worse?

    Go ahead and use even the tiny sample sizes you like.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

     

     

     

     

    EXTENSION  ???????  Salty needs to be part of a trade for PITCHING !!   We have enough catchers in the system !!

     

     

     

     



    yeah we have Catchers in the "system" we don't have MLB ready catchers who can come in and handle a MLB pitching staff in the midst of a playoff run.  Trading Salty now would set precedent for historical stupdity. 

     

     

     

     

     

     



    So far in this year Ryan Lavarnway is batting .286 (which places him fourth among catchers with at least 25 ABs in the AL) and his OPS is .715 which is 15th of the 37 catchers. He has hit at every level he has been given a chance to play at. His work at AAA ball is .288/.865. He has NEVER been given a chance in the majors to be the full time catcher, but if he were, my guess is that he would succeed. So we DO have at least one catcher who is likely ML ready. That makes Salty expendable (or Lavarnway expendable, depending on what the FO can get in return). I agree with Bill. We could use more pitching, especially good young pitching prospects.

     

     

     

     



    I'm sorry I don't want to be rude but I stoped reading after " at least 25 at bats in the A.L."

     

     



    Good to know that your mind is made up on the subject. The fact of the matter is that Lavarnway has not been given the chance to prove himself. He cannot get 200 PAs by now in the majors because he hasn't been given the chance. I don't want to be rude either, but only a fool is not open to all the possibilities here. Lavarnway has only 28 PAs this year. So the 25 PAs is the ONLY way you can compare his current stats to other catchers. His minor league stats are a much larger sample size. But you probably stopped reading this a long time ago. Hard to feed someone who will not eat.

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

     

     

     

     

    EXTENSION  ???????  Salty needs to be part of a trade for PITCHING !!   We have enough catchers in the system !!

     

     

     

     



    yeah we have Catchers in the "system" we don't have MLB ready catchers who can come in and handle a MLB pitching staff in the midst of a playoff run.  Trading Salty now would set precedent for historical stupdity. 

     

     

     

     

     

     



    So far in this year Ryan Lavarnway is batting .286 (which places him fourth among catchers with at least 25 ABs in the AL) and his OPS is .715 which is 15th of the 37 catchers. He has hit at every level he has been given a chance to play at. His work at AAA ball is .288/.865. He has NEVER been given a chance in the majors to be the full time catcher, but if he were, my guess is that he would succeed. So we DO have at least one catcher who is likely ML ready. That makes Salty expendable (or Lavarnway expendable, depending on what the FO can get in return). I agree with Bill. We could use more pitching, especially good young pitching prospects.

     

     

     

     



    I'm sorry I don't want to be rude but I stoped reading after " at least 25 at bats in the A.L."

     

     



    Good to know that your mind is made up on the subject. The fact of the matter is that Lavarnway has not been given the chance to prove himself. He cannot get 200 PAs by now in the majors because he hasn't been given the chance. I don't want to be rude either, but only a fool is not open to all the possibilities here. Lavarnway has only 28 PAs this year. So the 25 PAs is the ONLY way you can compare his current stats to other catchers. His minor league stats are a much larger sample size. But you probably stopped reading this a long time ago. Hard to feed someone who will not eat.

     

     




    With Farrell using Salty most of the time and even against LHP< doesnt that tell you all you need to know about what they think of lavarnway?

    Moost scouts and baseball guys see him as a BU/DH type, not as a FT catcher at the MLB level.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
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    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

     

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

    [/QUOTE]

    We do not need both of them. One should be traded, hopefully for pitching. I think that if they decided to trade Salty then Lavarnway would be successful at the position. He has succeeded at every level he has played at so far.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

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    In response to BMav's comment:

     

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    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

     

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

     

     

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    We do not need both of them. One should be traded, hopefully for pitching. I think that if they decided to trade Salty then Lavarnway would be successful at the position. He has succeeded at every level he has played at so far.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    If you want to trade one for pitching, then Lavarnway would obviously bring you a much better return just for the fact hes under control for 5-6 years.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to soxforlife22's comment:

    Why not offer him the the one year 13 million dollar qualifying and either go year to year with him at a slightly inflated price (which is made worth it by the length of the contract) or get draft picks

     

     

     

     

     



    I think that's the slam dunk position.  If he can get $10M and multiple years, he's turning us down.  If he accepts, there is a lot of value in overpaying someone in return for limited liability contract.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

     

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

     

     

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    We do not need both of them. One should be traded, hopefully for pitching. I think that if they decided to trade Salty then Lavarnway would be successful at the position. He has succeeded at every level he has played at so far.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    also, what do you mean we dont need both of them. Ross is out til at least mid august and who knows if he will be ok after that. Concussions are trick, especially after 2 in a row to a man in his mid 30's. we NEED both of them right now.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

    1) Salty was Wake's exclusive catcher. That alone skews those numbers immensely.

    2) Using overall CERA is a joke, unless everyone catches the same pitchers about the same percent of the time. That was not even close to what has happened. Francona and Valantine liked to use specific catcher with exclusive pitchers.

    PAs with each catcher:

    2011:

    Salty: Wake 624, Lester 610, Lackey 591, Aceves 282, Buch 265, Bard 164, Miller 156, Wheeler 142, Paps 139, Albers 127, Atch 91, Weiland 86, Bedard 84, Morales 74, Beckett 52

    VTek: Beck 715, Aceves 173, Lester 165, Albers 156, Miller 154, Lackey 152, Dice-K 151, Bard 115, Paps 103, Buch 88, Bedard 67, Bowden 60, Wheeler 59, Morales 57, Wake 53

    These percents of who caught who are all out of whack. Not even close to an equal sample size comparison to be able to use seasonal CERA as a guage for judgement.

    2012:

    Salty: Doub 534, Lest 480, Buch 345, Cook 331, Beck 243, Aceves 231, Morales 216, Bard 166, Atch 149, Taza 124, Melan 123, Dice-K 122, Mort 116, Pad 116, Miller 95, Albers 90, Bres 61, Hill 57

    Shop: Buch 308, Beck 252, Lest 190, Doub 151, Bard 94, Mora 93, Pad 82, Alb 67, Acev 61, Miller 48, Atch 35

    2013: (Farrell is better at mixing it up, but there are still some wide disparities)

    Salty: Doub 356, Lest 319, Lack 260, Demp 259, Buch 188, Aceves 147, Taza 110, Ueh 105, Mort 105, Miller 102, Wilson 95, Bres 90, bailey 80, Web 62, Mora 58

    Ross: Lest 192, Demp 150, Buch 137, Lack 48, Taza 43, Ueh 32, Mort 25, Web 24, Doub 23...

     

     

    3) Pitchers are doing better and better with salty as time goes past, including within the 2012 season.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

     

     



    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

     

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

     

     



    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

     

     

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     

     




    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

     

     

     

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

     



    We do not need both of them. One should be traded, hopefully for pitching. I think that if they decided to trade Salty then Lavarnway would be successful at the position. He has succeeded at every level he has played at so far.

     

     




    also, what do you mean we dont need both of them. Ross is out til at least mid august and who knows if he will be ok after that. Concussions are trick, especially after 2 in a row to a man in his mid 30's. we NEED both of them right now.

     



    I am referring to after the season is over. Of course you do not trade away functional active players when you are in contention for a playoff spot, especially your starting catcher. The point of my post, which Hugh missed because "stopped reading after 25 ABs" were mentioned, is that either one but not both are acceptable front line catchers for next year. Lavarnway has simply never been given the chance to be the starting catcher, but his minor league stats indicated a high level of success at AAA ball. I expect that to carry over to the majors. Am I sure? Of course not. No way to prove it.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    If you want to trade one for pitching, then Lavarnway would obviously bring you a much better return just for the fact hes under control for 5-6 years.

    We are already short in catching.  I'd make a serious bet we aren't trading any.  And in the unlikely event we do trade one, assuming we haven't fallen out of the race, it won't be Salty.  Pretty sue our ML catching tandem won't be a guy that spent most of the seasin AAA with a BUC that is in AA.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 



    Even if we had 100% faith in Lav, which is hard to justify, who would be our backup catcher with Ross out?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

    1) Salty was Wake's exclusive catcher. That alone skews those numbers immensely.

    2) Using overall CERA is a joke, unless everyone catches the same pitchers about the same percent of the time. That was not even close to what has happened.

     



    Immense? I calculate that if you remove Wakefield from both Varitec and Salty that year, it only changes the CERA difference that year between the two of them 0.09 runs. Dropping the difference from 1.07 to 0.98. And for the three year sample, it probably changes the numbers about 0.05 runs tops. It still over a run a game difference in CERA even with Wakefield removed. Interestingly, the difference in 2011 with Wakefield was almost identical to the seasonal advantage with Varitec. Just over a run.

    As for doing it pitcher vs pitcher, I have done that for you aswell. And its 33-11 disadvantage Salty.

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

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    I understand the concept of not wanting to rock the boat at the catcher position mid season and so I am not asking for a trade of  Saltalamacchia. However, I am hoping with extreme hope that the Red Sox do not resign him.

    I don't care how many times people repeat how he is an average defender. Its crap.

    Where to begin? Fan graphs has rated his defense as negative 7 of 8 years. The lone exception is 2010, when he played just 12 games. He is minus -20.6 for his career.

    His Defensive Runs Scored rating this season is 62-64 catchers. Third worst in baseball at -6. He ranks 2nd worst out of 66 catchers over the last 2 seasons at -11. And he is 2nd worst in the last 3 seasons at -15 total. And -22 for his career.

    He is still a terrible thrower.

    His CERA is still very bad at 4.19. Compared to Ross's 3.04. Even Lavarnway is better so far this year. And these horrible CERA numbers are coming off of horrible numbers the last two seasons aswell. Three straight seasons more then a run worse then the number two catcher is incredibly awful. This is the main reason I think he should not be resigned.

    On offense he has a good OPS of .799. However, its is being sustained by a crazy high BABIP of .401, second highest in baseball with atleast 200 PA's. His offense this season is actually worse then last year if you take luck out of it. His K rate is at 34.6% making Napoli look like a contact hitter.  I predict by the end of the year he will have his 8th straight year below a .750 OPS while playing all 8 years in hitters parks.

    Lavarnway and Ross should be the Red Sox catchers next year. Although I would be open to another veteran catcher other then Saltalamacchia.

     



     

    In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    by David Laurila - July 9, 2013

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

     

    Thats the 1st paragraph from the link that I just posted from fangraphs. Apparently they dont think hes as bad as you do. Hes come a long way, especially over the last 16months. Hes just 28yrs old and is developing ointo a good MLB catcher. Problem is some fans want elite at all positions. Salty, compared to all MLB starting catchers is in the top 3rd. If you think we have, or are going to sign the next buster Posey or Y. Molina, think again. Most teams arent that lucck and would love to have a guy like saly on their team.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     




     

     

     

     

     

     

    Correct me if I am wrong, but its David Laurila at Fan Graphs, not Fan Graphs as a whole. Also, doesn't he write at Sox Prospects? Lets just say I disagree with David Laurila.

     

     

     

     



    David Laurila is a stats guy who, although a sox fan, has worked for baseball prospectus and SABR as well as some sites for the Sox. I dont believe they let just some random "fanboy" post articles on those sites though.

     

     

     

     

     

    David Ross has caught 23 games this year. Although cera really is laughable to most true professionals in baseball, thats hardly enough games to compare him to any other catcher, like you did.

     

     

     

     

     



    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

     

     

     

     

    If we were talking about a smaller sample or a smaller margin[say 0.2 or 0.3], then it could be totally meaningless. The idea that 150 run difference in 139 games is pure bad luck and coincidence and catching Wakefield I just think doesn't make sense. When added to the other defensive stats, I think the case is strong that Salty sucks on defense.

    Maybe I am wrong, but didn't Farrell call out Salty for his work ethic or something negative like that right before they started playing Ross more in late April early May? I have a vague memory of that. Looked like Ross was starting to take over a bit and then he got clunked on the head a few days later.

     

     

     




    I dont ever remember anyone saying anything negative about Saltys work habits. Its been all praise. Thats article would prove how much hes worked. Hes just 28 and nobody gave him the chance or proper time and patience it takes to develop a catcher with raw talent like Salty had. The rangers used him at C/DH/1b and never coached him to be just a catcher. They moved him from position to position and from MLB and AAA. Hes not elite on defense, but he doesnt suck either. Thats ridiculous. He an average defensive catcher with above average offense and a lot of intangibles that stats dont count for.

     

     

     

    The Sox were willing to take the time and allow him to truly develop. Its going to take a couple years until you start seeing a difference. we started seeing it last year. This year his offense has improved and hes starting to put it all together.

    He was tired come july/august the 1st couple years because he has never had that kind of a workload. He needed to get used to it and some things suffered because of it. This year he has played a lot of games and the club is relying on him even against LHP. Whats does that say to how they feel about Lavarnway? The Physical demands of a catcher are crazy. You dont just start playing 120 games without any issues along with the travel and other thing that can hapopen. Through all this Salty has stayed healthy and on the field. Hes reliable.

    Like I saidf, the Sox will do what they do. But Compared to what our options are internally and whats on the market, I have no problem offering Salty a 3-4 year deal. I think a lot of teams would love to have a guy like him behind the dish.

     



    We do not need both of them. One should be traded, hopefully for pitching. I think that if they decided to trade Salty then Lavarnway would be successful at the position. He has succeeded at every level he has played at so far.

     

     




    also, what do you mean we dont need both of them. Ross is out til at least mid august and who knows if he will be ok after that. Concussions are trick, especially after 2 in a row to a man in his mid 30's. we NEED both of them right now.

     

     



    I am referring to after the season is over. Of course you do not trade away functional active players when you are in contention for a playoff spot, especially your starting catcher. The point of my post, which Hugh missed because "stopped reading after 25 ABs" were mentioned, is that either one but not both are acceptable front line catchers for next year. Lavarnway has simply never been given the chance to be the starting catcher, but his minor league stats indicated a high level of success at AAA ball. I expect that to carry over to the majors. Am I sure? Of course not. No way to prove it.

     

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    Ok, my mistake.

    Honestly, Id rather have Salty/Lavarnway if I had to choose between the 3.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Lavarnway has simply never been given the chance to be the starting catcher, but his minor league stats indicated a high level of success at AAA ball. I expect that to carry over to the majors. Am I sure? Of course not. No way to prove it.

    If you guys are impatient with Salty's learning curve, especially on defense and staff-handling, then be prepared for a few years of struggle with Lava.

    I have pointed out numerous times that VTek was leading the league in PBs at salty's age and did not become a CERA whiz until after age 30. I was all over Salty and his poor ERA right up until May of 2012. I kept looking for an improvement that never seemed to come. In April of 2012, he turned a corner and started to improve. I'm not sure Lava can get to this point for several years. Sure, he'll be better right off in CS%, but that's about it as far as I'm concerned. To me, that is a tiny part of what makes a catcher a plus.

    On offense, Salty ranks 6th in OPS at .799 (250+ PAs) or 8th out of the top 30 catchers by PAs (160+). He's also 6th in OBP (250+ PAs)- an area he has struggled with over his career. He is 10th out of 30 (160+ PAs). He's 9th in wRC+ at 114. More importantly is this fact: Salty hits RHPs very well. It may seem like a weakness to be so bad vs LHPs, but if he is used correctly (only vs RH'd starters) then his offense looks even better when compared to MLB catchers vs RHPs. Out of the top 30 MLB catchers in PAs vs RHPs, Salty places 5th in OPS at .845 and 13th in OBP at .340.

    Only 3 catchers in MLB have more PAs and a higher OPS (.802) than Salty vs RHPs since 2012 (Mauer, Molina, and Posey).

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    If you want to trade one for pitching, then Lavarnway would obviously bring you a much better return just for the fact hes under control for 5-6 years.

    We are already short in catching.  I'd make a serious bet we aren't trading any.  And in the unlikely event we do trade one, assuming we haven't fallen out of the race, it won't be Salty.  Pretty sue our ML catching tandem won't be a guy that spent most of the seasin AAA with a BUC that is in AA.




    I agree. This was just for arguements sake though. Also, he was referring to this offseason which I misunderstood for during the season.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 




    Don't you think it would be too disruptive to trade away your starting catcher while the SP are at the top of the league in ERA and the team is in first place? That could backfire very easily. If you are going to trade him, wait until we are either out of it or the season is over. Personally, I like Lavarnway more than Salty. I think he has more offensive potential and if he is taught, his defense will become good as well. Its just a guess, of course. For backup next year we could pick up a Ross type of player. Salty could bring a decent pitching prospect, and as SP said, Lavarnway is under team control for 5-6 years.

     

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