Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Lavarnway has simply never been given the chance to be the starting catcher, but his minor league stats indicated a high level of success at AAA ball. I expect that to carry over to the majors. Am I sure? Of course not. No way to prove it.

    If you guys are impatient with Salty's learning curve, especially on defense and staff-handling, then be prepared for a few years of struggle with Lava.

    I have pointed out numerous times that VTek was leading the league in PBs at salty's age and did not become a CERA whiz until after age 30. I was all over Salty and his poor ERA right up until May of 2012. I kept looking for an improvement that never seemed to come. In April of 2012, he turned a corner and started to improve. I'm not sure Lava can get to this point for several years. Sure, he'll be better right off in CS%, but that's about it as far as I'm concerned. To me, that is a tiny part of what makes a catcher a plus.

    On offense, Salty ranks 6th in OPS at .799 (250+ PAs) or 8th out of the top 30 catchers by PAs (160+). He's also 6th in OBP (250+ PAs)- an area he has struggled with over his career. He is 10th out of 30 (160+ PAs). He's 9th in wRC+ at 114. More importantly is this fact: Salty hits RHPs very well. It may seem like a weakness to be so bad vs LHPs, but if he is used correctly (only vs RH'd starters) then his offense looks even better when compared to MLB catchers vs RHPs. Out of the top 30 MLB catchers in PAs vs RHPs, Salty places 5th in OPS at .845 and 13th in OBP at .340.

    Only 3 catchers in MLB have more PAs and a higher OPS (.802) than Salty vs RHPs since 2012 (Mauer, Molina, and Posey).

    Sox4ever




    This is what Ive been trying to say. Varitek didnt start to be the great catcher well all know until he got to his late 20's (28-29) and then pput it all together at 30yrs old.

    I still dont think Lavarnway, besides cs%, will be that good of a defensive catcher on a fulltime basis. If he is able to become one, it will still be a 2-3yrs before he really puts it all together. And there is no guarentee his bat will translate as well at the MLB level. It hasnt so far.

     

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    My point is that this is 2 and a half years. And the numbers are not some small difference. Its about 1.1 runs a game difference. And in those two and a half years, Varitec-Shopach-Ross have caught 139 games. That is not a small sample.

    1) Salty was Wake's exclusive catcher. That alone skews those numbers immensely.

    2) Using overall CERA is a joke, unless everyone catches the same pitchers about the same percent of the time. That was not even close to what has happened.

     

     



    Immense? I calculate that if you remove Wakefield from both Varitec and Salty that year, it only changes the CERA difference that year between the two of them 0.09 runs. Dropping the difference from 1.07 to 0.98. And for the three year sample, it probably changes the numbers about 0.05 runs tops. It still over a run a game difference in CERA even with Wakefield removed. Interestingly, the difference in 2011 with Wakefield was almost identical to the seasonal advantage with Varitec. Just over a run.

     

    As for doing it pitcher vs pitcher, I have done that for you aswell. And its 33-11 disadvantage Salty.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    What's the record when both sample sizes are higher than 50 IP (still a relatively small sample size), and one pitcher does not have more than twice as many IP with a SP in any given year?

    Here's a better question to ask: are pitchers doing better with Salty recently?

    Here's a comparison between each pitcher's career CERA with Salty vs their 2013 CERA (remember, the career CERA includes 2013, so any differential is actually larger than it appears):

              Career   2013

    Lester  4.48    4.23

    Buch     4.18    1.85

    Doub     4.62    4.06

    Lack      4.78    2.40

    Taza      2.26    2.96

    Miller     3.70    2.95

    Aceves 3.97    4.78 (32 IP)

    Morales 3.89   7.30 (12.1 IP sample size)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 

     




    Don't you think it would be too disruptive to trade away your starting catcher while the SP are at the top of the league in ERA and the team is in first place? That could backfire very easily. If you are going to trade him, wait until we are either out of it or the season is over. Personally, I like Lavarnway more than Salty. I think he has more offensive potential and if he is taught, his defense will become good as well. Its just a guess, of course. For backup next year we could pick up a Ross type of player. Salty could bring a decent pitching prospect, and as SP said, Lavarnway is under team control for 5-6 years.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't trade a FA. When the season is over, Salty re-signs or bolts. I suppose we could sign and trade, but I think there are restrictions on that.

    Before this season started, I stated that I felt we should extend Salty. I thought we could get him to agree to $22M/3, and that if Salty wasn't in our longterm plans, we should trade him while his value was high. Of course, I based this on thinking we would not be in strong competition for a ring in 2013. 

    Things have changed since then, and Salty has improved on his "market value" since winter. I hope we can keep Salty around a few more years. Starting from scratch may work out over the long run, but I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford to give leeway for a learning curve of a young catcher. We already rate to have a bunch of kids in key roles for 2014 anyways, I just don't see subjecting our staff to an unexperienced catcher will make us any better in 2014 or 2015.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

     

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 

     

     




    Don't you think it would be too disruptive to trade away your starting catcher while the SP are at the top of the league in ERA and the team is in first place? That could backfire very easily. If you are going to trade him, wait until we are either out of it or the season is over. Personally, I like Lavarnway more than Salty. I think he has more offensive potential and if he is taught, his defense will become good as well. Its just a guess, of course. For backup next year we could pick up a Ross type of player. Salty could bring a decent pitching prospect, and as SP said, Lavarnway is under team control for 5-6 years.

     

     



    You can't trade a FA. When the season is over, Salty re-signs or bolts. I suppose we could sign and trade, but I think there are restrictions on that.

     

    Before this season started, I stated that I felt we should extend Salty. I thought we could get him to agree to $22M/3, and that if Salty wasn't in our longterm plans, we should trade him while his value was high. Of course, I based this on thinking we would not be in strong competition for a ring in 2013. 

    Things have changed since then, and Salty has improved on his "market value" since winter. I hope we can keep Salty around a few more years. Starting from scratch may work out over the long run, but I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford to give leeway for a learning curve of a young catcher. We already rate to have a bunch of kids in key roles for 2014 anyways, I just don't see subjecting our staff to an unexperienced catcher will make us any better in 2014 or 2015.




    Don't we get picks or a pick if he walks? I did not realize his contract was up this year.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

     

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 

     

     




    Don't you think it would be too disruptive to trade away your starting catcher while the SP are at the top of the league in ERA and the team is in first place? That could backfire very easily. If you are going to trade him, wait until we are either out of it or the season is over. Personally, I like Lavarnway more than Salty. I think he has more offensive potential and if he is taught, his defense will become good as well. Its just a guess, of course. For backup next year we could pick up a Ross type of player. Salty could bring a decent pitching prospect, and as SP said, Lavarnway is under team control for 5-6 years.

     

     



    You can't trade a FA. When the season is over, Salty re-signs or bolts. I suppose we could sign and trade, but I think there are restrictions on that.

     

    Before this season started, I stated that I felt we should extend Salty. I thought we could get him to agree to $22M/3, and that if Salty wasn't in our longterm plans, we should trade him while his value was high. Of course, I based this on thinking we would not be in strong competition for a ring in 2013. 

    Things have changed since then, and Salty has improved on his "market value" since winter. I hope we can keep Salty around a few more years. Starting from scratch may work out over the long run, but I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford to give leeway for a learning curve of a young catcher. We already rate to have a bunch of kids in key roles for 2014 anyways, I just don't see subjecting our staff to an unexperienced catcher will make us any better in 2014 or 2015.

     




    Don't we get picks or a pick if he walks? I did not realize his contract was up this year.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    We'd have to make him a qualifying offer (about $14M/1) to get a pick.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    If you guys are impatient with Salty's learning curve, especially on defense and staff-handling, then be prepared for a few years of struggle with Lava.

    I have pointed out numerous times that VTek was leading the league in PBs at salty's age and did not become a CERA whiz until after age 30. I was all over Salty and his poor ERA right up until May of 2012. I kept looking for an improvement that never seemed to come. In April of 2012, he turned a corner and started to improve. I'm not sure Lava can get to this point for several years. Sure, he'll be better right off in CS%, but that's about it as far as I'm concerned. To me, that is a tiny part of what makes a catcher a plus.

    On offense, Salty ranks 6th in OPS at .799 (250+ PAs) or 8th out of the top 30 catchers by PAs (160+). He's also 6th in OBP (250+ PAs)- an area he has struggled with over his career. He is 10th out of 30 (160+ PAs). He's 9th in wRC+ at 114. More importantly is this fact: Salty hits RHPs very well. It may seem like a weakness to be so bad vs LHPs, but if he is used correctly (only vs RH'd starters) then his offense looks even better when compared to MLB catchers vs RHPs. Out of the top 30 MLB catchers in PAs vs RHPs, Salty places 5th in OPS at .845 and 13th in OBP at .340.

    Only 3 catchers in MLB have more PAs and a higher OPS (.802) than Salty vs RHPs since 2012 (Mauer, Molina, and Posey).

    Sox4ever

     




    This is what Ive been trying to say. Varitek didnt start to be the great catcher well all know until he got to his late 20's (28-29) and then pput it all together at 30yrs old.

    Actually, VTek was not really "great" until about age 31, when he hit .273  25  85. Although he has 20 Hrs at age 27, I wouldn't call an .813 OPS great, especially when you add the fact that he led the league in PBs that same year and the next (ages 27 & 28). His CS% was about 26% up to age 29, but he never got over 30%. He also made 11 errors that year at age 27. He followed up that season with a .248  10 65 season at age 28 and was hurt for most of his season at age 29.  VTek's CERA dominance did not begin until his early 30's. The one thing VTek always had on Salty at that early age was OBP (.309, .330, .342,  .371, and .332 up to age 30, but Salty has made great strides in that area so far this year. VTek's career OBP is .341. Salty is at .343 right now. To be fair, Salty usually slumps late seasons, and it is doubtful he will ever match VTek's top 4 OBP seasons of 390, 371, 366, and 367.

    Salty just turned 28 in May.

     

    I still dont think Lavarnway, besides cs%, will be that good of a defensive catcher on a fulltime basis. If he is able to become one, it will still be a 2-3yrs before he really puts it all together. And there is no guarentee his bat will translate as well at the MLB level. It hasnt so far.

    Most scouting reports question Lava's defense.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

    That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    My gut tells me he walks as well. He was shopped last season, so I get the feeling Management does not value him as much as some of us fans.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    My gut tells me he walks as well. He was shopped last season, so I get the feeling Management does not value him as much as some of us fans.

    Sox4ever



    We will see, but the fact that he was shopped last season may not be indicative of their current assessments of him.  I'm sure they recognize his improvements this year.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:

     

     

    I'm for trading Salty while his stock is on the higher side.    I'm with Bmav on this one.  Don't like his defense (including arm) or his strikeouts.  Don't consider him a clutch hitter. 

     

     




    Don't you think it would be too disruptive to trade away your starting catcher while the SP are at the top of the league in ERA and the team is in first place? That could backfire very easily. If you are going to trade him, wait until we are either out of it or the season is over. Personally, I like Lavarnway more than Salty. I think he has more offensive potential and if he is taught, his defense will become good as well. Its just a guess, of course. For backup next year we could pick up a Ross type of player. Salty could bring a decent pitching prospect, and as SP said, Lavarnway is under team control for 5-6 years.

     

     



    You can't trade a FA. When the season is over, Salty re-signs or bolts. I suppose we could sign and trade, but I think there are restrictions on that.

     

    Before this season started, I stated that I felt we should extend Salty. I thought we could get him to agree to $22M/3, and that if Salty wasn't in our longterm plans, we should trade him while his value was high. Of course, I based this on thinking we would not be in strong competition for a ring in 2013. 

    Things have changed since then, and Salty has improved on his "market value" since winter. I hope we can keep Salty around a few more years. Starting from scratch may work out over the long run, but I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford to give leeway for a learning curve of a young catcher. We already rate to have a bunch of kids in key roles for 2014 anyways, I just don't see subjecting our staff to an unexperienced catcher will make us any better in 2014 or 2015.

     

     




    Don't we get picks or a pick if he walks? I did not realize his contract was up this year.

     

     



    We'd have to make him a qualifying offer (about $14M/1) to get a pick.

     



    Then thats not a bad idea. One year for him-and a pick in return if he walks. I guess I have more confidence in Lavarnway's potential development than others here. I think he can do it-AND he is under team control for what-five years?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Don't we get picks or a pick if he walks? I did not realize his contract was up this year.

     

     



    We'd have to make him a qualifying offer (about $14M/1) to get a pick.

     

     



    Then thats not a bad idea. One year for him-and a pick in return if he walks.

    That's a lot of money, even for a one year contract.

     

    I guess I have more confidence in Lavarnway's potential development than others here. I think he can do it-AND he is under team control for what-five years?

    He has a long way to go defensively and handling our staff. I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford an on-the-job opportunity at a demanding position for the next 2-3 years.

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Don't we get picks or a pick if he walks? I did not realize his contract was up this year.

     

     



    We'd have to make him a qualifying offer (about $14M/1) to get a pick.

     

     



    Then thats not a bad idea. One year for him-and a pick in return if he walks.

    That's a lot of money, even for a one year contract.

     

    I guess I have more confidence in Lavarnway's potential development than others here. I think he can do it-AND he is under team control for what-five years?

    He has a long way to go defensively and handling our staff. I'm not sure a team like the Sox can afford an on-the-job opportunity at a demanding position for the next 2-3 years.

    Sox4ever



    They did it with Salty. And after this year Lavarnway will likely have a lot more experience at the position. If Salty leaves then we either have to get another catcher (who will probably block Vasquez and the other minor league catching prospects as well as Lavarnway) or train a catcher as you suggested. Perhaps paying Salty that money for one year with Lavarnway getting more experience with an eye towards making him our catcher in 2015 is the right strategy.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Archer1. Show Archer1's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Salty has made improvements in the last few years and turned potential and promise intosome success at a tough position. The Sox FO did a good job of buying low and helping him improve to fill a position of need. However, I don't belive he is worth the investment originally mentioned (4/40). The best course of action would be the one-year qualifying offer. We either get him for an additional year or we get a first round draft pick. Both good outcomes. Signing him to a long-term, big-money extension is not.

    I really feel Lavarnway could fill his shoes. As someone else said...he has hit at every level and has made defensive strides just as significant (if not moreso) than Salty. I know we can't just give him the job, but it seems like this is similar to the Loretta/Pedroia situation (albeit Loretta wasn't seeking a long-term, big-money contract). Semi-successful incumbent vs talented prospect with minor league track record. We know what worked last time and I feel confident it would work out again this time, too.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

    That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

     




    IMHO, your analysis is lightweight and your bias is obvious and has been for a long time...

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Great thread SP777.  i agree with your line of thinking.  Salty is def the way to go for at least another year or two.  i would love for the sox to be able to sign him to a 2 year deal (instead of 3), as the wear and tear on a catcher is alot and they can trend downhill very quickly.  that 3rd year might be a waste.  that being said, if it takes a 3 year contract to keep him - i am all for it.  as for the $ amount....not a concern as the red sox have chopped so much payroll the past year.  Henry can afford it.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    They did it with Salty. And after this year Lavarnway will likely have a lot more experience at the position.

    Not even close to the experience Salty had before he was given the FT job.

    If Salty leaves then we either have to get another catcher (who will probably block Vasquez and the other minor league catching prospects as well as Lavarnway) or train a catcher as you suggested. Perhaps paying Salty that money for one year with Lavarnway getting more experience with an eye towards making him our catcher in 2015 is the right strategy.

    I can see that position as being valid, but $14M is too much. We could probably get him for $20M/2, so why not do it? We could always trade him, if Vazquez or Lavarnway prove themselves by 2015. More likely, it will take $38M/4 or more to get him. As long as there is not a no trade clause in the deal, we can always make room for Lava or vazquez if and when that day comes.

    Sox4ever

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    Great thread SP777.  i agree with your line of thinking.  Salty is def the way to go for at least another year or two.  i would love for the sox to be able to sign him to a 2 year deal (instead of 3), as the wear and tear on a catcher is alot and they can trend downhill very quickly.  that 3rd year might be a waste.  that being said, if it takes a 3 year contract to keep him - i am all for it.  as for the $ amount....not a concern as the red sox have chopped so much payroll the past year.  Henry can afford it.

     


    Thanks slasher

    Considering that Salty just started playing full time at catcher when he came to the Sox, the wear and tear isnt as much as say someone like mauer or McCann. Id probably do a 3yr deal with a 4th option/buyout if thats what it took. But yeah, Hes def the right catcher to hold the spot for either Vasquez or Swihart.

     I dont want to have to go through that 2-3 year learning curve with Lavarnway, especially when scouts all say his most likely a BU catcher/DH profile.

    With Salty here, he can use the final year to mentor one of our young catchers. Id still give Lav a 1b mit and see what happens. Hed be a good player to have that provides good offense (hopefully) and can play 1b or catcher. As a catcher, Id think playing 1b would be good because he can scoop balls out of the dirt and at 6'4 would have a nice stretch. The offense would have to be there to warrant a FT spot there though.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Late to the party, but I'm with you Southie. After Molina, Posey and Mauer, I think he's as good as anyone. And he's only 28, which makes him the third-youngest starter in the lineup.

    Plus, I've finallly learned how to spell Saltalamacchia.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to LloydDobler's comment:

    Late to the party, but I'm with you Southie. There aren't that many catchers better. Plus, I've finallly learned how to spell Saltalamacchia.



    +1

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    My gut tells me he walks as well. He was shopped last season, so I get the feeling Management does not value him as much as some of us fans.

    Sox4ever

     



    We will see, but the fact that he was shopped last season may not be indicative of their current assessments of him.  I'm sure they recognize his improvements this year.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    There is a big difference between being in 1st and being in last.  There were probably 20 guys on the block last year.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    My gut tells me he walks as well. He was shopped last season, so I get the feeling Management does not value him as much as some of us fans.

    Sox4ever

     

     



    We will see, but the fact that he was shopped last season may not be indicative of their current assessments of him.  I'm sure they recognize his improvements this year.

     

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    There is a big difference between being in 1st and being in last.  There were probably 20 guys on the block last year.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, good point, but if they viewed Salty as part of our longterm plans, you'd think we'd have heard a hint at talks of an extension at some point along the way. I just get the feeling we won't outbid some other GM for Salty.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    .272 BA. .344 OBP .464 SLG .808 OPS

    His numbers for July so far...

    .360 .469 .560 1.029

    A nice 4 day break coming up soon and the second "half" begins.

    Once again, If the Sox choose to move on from salty, There will be a number of teams that would love his production. Without salty, the Sox will see their production go way down at the catching position for the next couple years...He has earned an extension.

     
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