Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Salty's CERA keeps going down...

    It helps to have a reborn Lackey pitching to him.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

    That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

     




    IMHO, your analysis is lightweight and your bias is obvious and has been for a long time...

     

     

     



    I am clearly biased against Salty continuing his current .405 BAPIP, which by the way is extremely high for him historically or any other player in the last 50 years. The highest full season BAPIP in the last 50 years or so beyond him was Ichiro at .399. Do you really think that is going to continue? Look at the data.

     

     

    Salty has a current K percentage of 34%. 34% of his at bats he is striking out and over 40 % of the time he is getting a hit. How likely is that? This guy is going to regress bigtime. Salty's BAPIP historically has been .321. If he had NORMAL LUCK LEVELS FOR HIM HISTORICALLY, he would be hitting .190 right now.

    The data doesn't support your argument. He stinks defensively also with a negative 6 DRS.  

    I read the article. Where is the insight there? The guy is not an intellectual giant and he never should be discussing such details in public. It can only hurt his team. Someone should tell him to shut up. We are trying to actually win games.

     




     

    If You think hes saying anything that actually hurts the team, then Wow, you really are clueless...

    heres more praise for a good interview and great insight to the cerebral part of catching

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/7/10/4507512/jarrod-saltalamacchia-red-sox-catching-interview

    Oh, Vasquez IS already on the 40-man...try and keep up.



    I didn't say he wasn't on the 40 man. I answered the man's question regarding the Rule 5 draft. Players go on and off the 40 man and it's a major issue for the Sox this year with so many solid prospects needing to be protected. Ergo the Brandon Jacobs trade for example. Ergo the knuckleball guy just brought up. They have some decisions to make. Hassan vs Almanzar for example. Prediction, the Sox WILL lose someone in the rule 5 draft this year.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Salty's CERA keeps going down...

    It helps to have a reborn Lackey pitching to him.



    Particularly when Lackey keeps shaking Salty off!

    Personally, I would want my catcher to shut up rather than blabber everything we are trying to do to the entire freaking league. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Salty's CERA keeps going down...

    It helps to have a reborn Lackey pitching to him.

     



    Particularly when Lackey keeps shaking Salty off!

     

    Personally, I would want my catcher to shut up rather than blabber everything we are trying to do to the entire freaking league. 



    Nothing he said in the article was really giving away secrets, its akin to what the pitching coach says about a pitcher's skills before the game. It seems like you are stetching pretty far in order to share your dislike of salty. You might not like him but most do, and most importantantly the sox seem to as well as it seems to be a 4 to 1 split between him and lav. Again the only defensive area were lav beats him is caught stealing percentage which really isn't a great measure of catching skills (see teks entire career) its a okay to not like every player but when you stretch so hard to make them look bad you come off a little softy esq

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    Salty hasn't insulted my mother ok. I actually like him. I like Pluto also though but would not want him calling a game for me. There is no reason to think Salty is even average defensively overall and the defensive metrics for full time catchers have shown that over and over since he has been in the league. Sometimes we forget that the Rangers gave up on him completely and he spent a full year in the minors while guys like Teagarden were getting PT in the majors for them. His first 2 years with us were horrible except for the HR, which often come in bunches never to be repeated again. I'm not sold.

    At the same time, what are the alternatives? Ergo yes they may actually want him back but no way he gets a qualifying offer. He may get an $8-10 mil deal though per year but I wouldn't even go there. The guy's .395 BAPIP ( as of today ) just sticks out like a sore thumb. He is going to regress. Bank on it.  And his career BA is .243 with a wRC+ of 91. The guy isn't even close to being an average offensive player and he sure as heck isn't an average defender.

     

    All that said, he is a catcher which the staff does have some experience with and we need a catcher. He may well get resigned. I would much rather see us spend the money elsewhere though. For example for a Kendry Morales.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Salty hasn't insulted my mother ok. I actually like him. I like Pluto also though but would not want him calling a game for me. There is no reason to think Salty is even average defensively overall and the defensive metrics for full time catchers have shown that over and over since he has been in the league. Sometimes we forget that the Rangers gave up on him completely and he spent a full year in the minors while guys like Teagarden were getting PT in the majors for them. His first 2 years with us were horrible except for the HR, which often come in bunches never to be repeated again. I'm not sold.

    At the same time, what are the alternatives? Ergo yes they may actually want him back but no way he gets a qualifying offer. He may get an $8-10 mil deal though per year but I wouldn't even go there. The guy's .395 BAPIP ( as of today ) just sticks out like a sore thumb. He is going to regress. Bank on it.  And his career BA is .243 with a wRC+ of 91. The guy isn't even close to being an average offensive player and he sure as heck isn't an average defender.

     

    All that said, he is a catcher which the staff does have some experience with and we need a catcher. He may well get resigned. I would much rather see us spend the money elsewhere though. For example for a Kendry Morales.



    Haha glad to hear your mother hasn't been harrassed by salty, it seems sometimes that posters develop an irrational hate for a player. I can never quite understand why some people seem to make their dislike so personal.

    I feel that the sox will probably offer him close to what southpaw was saying 8 to 10 mil for 3 or so years. Hopefully he would take it because the sox really gave him a chance. A chance which he had really never been given before. His throwing to the pitcher issue seems to behind him. I'm not arguing he has been good in Boston the whole time. His first season was pretty horrible, that leg thing he did drove me crazy. But starting at somepoint around last season he stopped doing it and just seemed to become more comfortable behind the dish. That attitude has seemed to spread to the starting pitchers and has kept them more relaxed. That's not a bad thing to have at all, and I believe it has quite a bit to do with the success we have been enjoying so far this year.

    Just my take though.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to RSF4Life234's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    Salty hasn't insulted my mother ok. I actually like him. I like Pluto also though but would not want him calling a game for me. There is no reason to think Salty is even average defensively overall and the defensive metrics for full time catchers have shown that over and over since he has been in the league. Sometimes we forget that the Rangers gave up on him completely and he spent a full year in the minors while guys like Teagarden were getting PT in the majors for them. His first 2 years with us were horrible except for the HR, which often come in bunches never to be repeated again. I'm not sold.

    At the same time, what are the alternatives? Ergo yes they may actually want him back but no way he gets a qualifying offer. He may get an $8-10 mil deal though per year but I wouldn't even go there. The guy's .395 BAPIP ( as of today ) just sticks out like a sore thumb. He is going to regress. Bank on it.  And his career BA is .243 with a wRC+ of 91. The guy isn't even close to being an average offensive player and he sure as heck isn't an average defender.

     

    All that said, he is a catcher which the staff does have some experience with and we need a catcher. He may well get resigned. I would much rather see us spend the money elsewhere though. For example for a Kendry Morales.

     



    Haha glad to hear your mother hasn't been harrassed by salty, it seems sometimes that posters develop an irrational hate for a player. I can never quite understand why some people seem to make their dislike so personal.

     

    I feel that the sox will probably offer him close to what southpaw was saying 8 to 10 mil for 3 or so years. Hopefully he would take it because the sox really gave him a chance. A chance which he had really never been given before. His throwing to the pitcher issue seems to behind him. I'm not arguing he has been good in Boston the whole time. His first season was pretty horrible, that leg thing he did drove me crazy. But starting at somepoint around last season he stopped doing it and just seemed to become more comfortable behind the dish. That attitude has seemed to spread to the starting pitchers and has kept them more relaxed. That's not a bad thing to have at all, and I believe it has quite a bit to do with the success we have been enjoying so far this year.

    Just my take though.




    The throwing back to the pitcher thing was thoracic outlet syndrome. Josh Beckett just had the same surgery. His nerves were being pinched off and it wasnt allowing him to throw the ball well. That might have something to do with the poor cs% numbers throughout his career. Not saying he has a greatarm anyway, but still...

    Boom.soxprospects has always had a sour spot for salty for some reason. As you can see with his grasping for straws to try and make him look bad. Hes not giving away any secrets. Thats just silly. Theres a lot more to catching than just some defensive metrics. There are reasons why the coaches, pitchers and his teammates like him and the pitchers like throwing to him...Salty IS an average defender and an above average hitter, whether anyone agrees or not. Those are facts.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    What secret did he give away that any GM, catcher or player doesn't already know?

    This is absurd.

    What data is used for determining a catcher's rating in these "metrics"? Id pitch framing involved? Handling the staff? Two very parts of a catchers game, that is not even one small part of UZR.

    CS% is vastly over-rated and over-used, but for years and years it was about the only number we had to look at. 

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What secret did he give away that any GM, catcher or player doesn't already know?

    This is absurd.

    What data is used for determining a catcher's rating in these "metrics"? Id pitch framing involved? Handling the staff? Two very parts of a catchers game, that is not even one small part of UZR.

    CS% is vastly over-rated and over-used, but for years and years it was about the only number we had to look at. 

    Sox4ever




    This is why no matter how you personally feel about a player, you should just stick to all the facts, not just some. The defensive metrics arent the end all, be all to a catcher. NOT EVEN CLOSE. You should also not try and make up silly stuff to make a player look worse just because you dont like him for some strange reason. Boom just got another lesson, in regards to his obvious bias against Salty by being called out by a few posters whorecognize this bias and grasping for straws with the whole giving away team secrets garbage and using a few stats.

    A few of us have been saying all along that there is much much more to catching then a few questionsable defensoive stats.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What secret did he give away that any GM, catcher or player doesn't already know?

    This is absurd.

    What data is used for determining a catcher's rating in these "metrics"? Id pitch framing involved? Handling the staff? Two very parts of a catchers game, that is not even one small part of UZR.

    CS% is vastly over-rated and over-used, but for years and years it was about the only number we had to look at. 

    Sox4ever

     




    This is why no matter how you personally feel about a player, you should just stick to all the facts, not just some. The defensive metrics arent the end all, be all to a catcher. NOT EVEN CLOSE. You should also not try and make up silly stuff to make a player look worse just because you dont like him for some strange reason. Boom just got another lesson, in regards to his obvious bias against Salty by being called out by a few posters whorecognize this bias and grasping for straws with the whole giving away team secrets garbage and using a few stats.

     

    A few of us have been saying all along that there is much much more to catching then a few questionsable defensoive stats. 



    I use defensive metrics often, so I can see how someone can view me as being "selective" by discounting Salty's metrics. I have never used defensive metrics for catchers, and it is a relatively new measure. I'm not sure anyone knows all the components used and not used, but my guess is they do not use pitch framing. Someone posted a study on pitch framing that showed Salty was one of the best and that his pitch framing ability saved us numerous runs over a season- perhaps enough to negate the minus runs some of these metrics are attributing to Salty's defense. I'm almost positive none of the metrics factor inhandling the staff, but to me, this is a huge part of a catcher's defense. I know some out there think it is a minimal influence, but the data and anecdoatl evidence is overwhelming IMO. The data shows that the most of same pitchers Salty caught 2-3 years ago are doing much better since about may of 2012. Maybe it's just familarity, luck, or the result of new pitching coaches or managers, but the fact is, almost all have gotten better with Salty as their main catcher.

    I'm not saying Salty is above average on defense. His arm is horrible, his PB+WP/innings has reversed course after improving a lot last year (beyond the loss Wake), and maybe some other areas need further improvement, but I do not think it is a strecth to say that when everything beyond hitting and running are factored in, Salty could easily be an average catcher in MLB. Maybe he's a little below average, but he seems to be improving, and we all saw that some catchers like VTek, don't come into their own defensively until age 30-32 and beyond. Salty just turned 28 in May, spent a lot of time over his career on the bench (not growing and learning by experience) and even spent some time learning how to play 1B rather than concentrating on becomming a better catcher.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    What secret did he give away that any GM, catcher or player doesn't already know?

    This is absurd.

    What data is used for determining a catcher's rating in these "metrics"? Id pitch framing involved? Handling the staff? Two very parts of a catchers game, that is not even one small part of UZR.

    CS% is vastly over-rated and over-used, but for years and years it was about the only number we had to look at. 

    Sox4ever

     

     




    This is why no matter how you personally feel about a player, you should just stick to all the facts, not just some. The defensive metrics arent the end all, be all to a catcher. NOT EVEN CLOSE. You should also not try and make up silly stuff to make a player look worse just because you dont like him for some strange reason. Boom just got another lesson, in regards to his obvious bias against Salty by being called out by a few posters whorecognize this bias and grasping for straws with the whole giving away team secrets garbage and using a few stats.

     

     

    A few of us have been saying all along that there is much much more to catching then a few questionsable defensoive stats. 

     



    I use defensive metrics often, so I can see how someone can view me as being "selective" by discounting Salty's metrics. I have never used defensive metrics for catchers, and it is a relatively new measure. I'm not sure anyone knows all the components used and not used, but my guess is they do not use pitch framing. Someone posted a study on pitch framing that showed Salty was one of the best and that his pitch framing ability saved us numerous runs over a season- perhaps enough to negate the minus runs some of these metrics are attributing to Salty's defense. I'm almost positive none of the metrics factor inhandling the staff, but to me, this is a huge part of a catcher's defense. I know some out there think it is a minimal influence, but the data and anecdoatl evidence is overwhelming IMO. The data shows that the most of same pitchers Salty caught 2-3 years ago are doing much better since about may of 2012. Maybe it's just familarity, luck, or the result of new pitching coaches or managers, but the fact is, almost all have gotten better with Salty as their main catcher.

     

    I'm not saying Salty is above average on defense. His arm is horrible, his PB+WP/innings has reversed course after improving a lot last year (beyond the loss Wake), and maybe some other areas need further improvement, but I do not think it is a strecth to say that when everything beyond hitting and running are factored in, Salty could easily be an average catcher in MLB. Maybe he's a little below average, but he seems to be improving, and we all saw that some catchers like VTek, don't come into their own defensively until age 30-32 and beyond. Salty just turned 28 in May, spent a lot of time over his career on the bench (not growing and learning by experience) and even spent some time learning how to play 1B rather than concentrating on becomming a better catcher.




    exactly. I know you understand the differences in regards to a catcher, the defensive metrics, and the parts of a catchers game that stats dont not count for as well as the new ones like pitch framing. Salty is an average defensive catcher who is still improving. His offense is above average compared to other starting catchers in MLB and we have seen improvement with that as well...Some posters like Boom should take his bias out of it and look at the whole picture and educate himself in all areas that are involved in regards to the catching position.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles


    Ks up.

    HRs down.

    RBI, BBs, AVG all up.

    D up.

    Recently 28 and currently working on just his SECOND season of owning the job full time. So many catchers blossom WELL before 28, I can't BELIEVE the Sox have WASTED so much time waiting for this guy!

    Texas "gave up" on a LOT of prospects, and ruined a few others. Think they'd like Chris Davis back about now? Oh, right, Texas had him in AAA while the likes of god-knows-who was playing over him. They have done such a splendid job of identifying their own talent. That's the single worst argument against Salty I've ever heard. Totally baseless and truly ignorant of what Texas has been doing for a long time. Although, they did acquire Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez! Seemed fair at the time...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    I respect boom's opinion, and the high BAbip is worrisome, especially when you figure that Salty is a notoriously poor late season hitter, but his increase in BB% is far more valuable than many want to give him credit for.

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    It's obvious that we keep Salty for the rest of the season. With his improvement, and more importantly, Ross out, there is no trade talk.

    What I'm opposed to is overpaying him next year.

    We are supposedly sitting on some quality catching prospects that I would like to see more of. It's not just Lava.

    How good they look might tell us a lot about what we do next.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Extension for Salty? Heres a couple good articles

    It's obvious that we keep Salty for the rest of the season. With his improvement, and more importantly, Ross out, there is no trade talk.

    What I'm opposed to is overpaying him next year.

    We are supposedly sitting on some quality catching prospects that I would like to see more of. It's not just Lava.

    How good they look might tell us a lot about what we do next.

    We may try to sign Salty to a short deal, so as not to block the prospects. My positions is that if one of our prospects prospers, we can then trade Salty or the prospect for a nifty return. Better to be safe than sorry at the catching position.

    We have a numbers open positions next year and 1 or more rising prospects eager to win the each position. However, to be a top contender, it is highly unlikely we hand over the reigns to 4-5 young players. My guess is that Ben will choose one slot he feels is our weakest and go big via free agency or trade, and then sign a couple guys that can act as a bridge player in case they are not ready yet, or to be capable back-ups for one or more positions.

    Here are the openings and possible replacements:

    C: Lava, Ross, Vazquez with Swihart and Denny farther away

    CF: Bradley, Victorino (move Nava to RF and use Carp/Gomes in LF or Brentz wins RF)

    3B: Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Holt, Snyder (or Iggy) with Cecchini perhaps farther away.

    1B: Carp, Papi (in NL parks), Nava, Midds, Snyder and Almanzar/Shaw farther away.

    SP: Morales, Aceves, Webster, Ranaudo, Workman, Britton, DLR, Wright, or others

    RP: Wilson, de la Torre, or others

    I have no big argument with those who have faith in Ross/Lava/Vazquez as our catcher, as long as we upgrade at some of these other slots, but personally, I have more faith in Bogaerts/Middlebrooks/Cecchini at 3B than Lava/Vazquez at catcher. I have more faith in Bradley and Brentz added to the OF that already has Victorino, Nava, Gomes, and Carp going into 2014 than counting on Vazquez/Lava at catcher. I have more faith in Carp/Middlebrooks and Nava at 1B next year than Lava/Vazquez at Catcher. The only position I have less faith in, is our 6th starter and bullpen outlook next year. (Actually, our 6th starter may be OK, but I want to upgrade our #2 or 3 starter, so our 4th, 5th, and 6th starters look better as well.

    Sox4ever

     
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