Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    First of all, I realize our team plays half its games in Fenway Park-notoriously known as a hitter's park, but our staff ERA was almost identical at home (4.79) as on the road (4.65).

    I'm not usually one to be a leader in assigning blame on a player or group of players, since baseball is a team sport even though it involves mostly one single individual vs another single individual (Pitcher vs Batter then Batter vs Fielder), but I'd like to show Sox fans what the numbers reveal.

    A look at our pitching by looking at our wins when scoring certain amounts of runs as compared to the AL average in games with the same certain amount of runs scored:

    The Sox scored 0 runs 7 times this year. The 13 other AL teams scored 0 runs 123 times or over 9 times each, so we were shut out between 2-3 times less than the average AL team.

    The Sox scored 1 run 20 times and went 1-19. The AL avg: 16 games with 1.5 wins. The Sox underscored  by scoring 1 run 4 more times than the avg AL team and won just 1 of these very low scoring games all season. We should have win about 2 gms. Net -1 win charged to the pitching & defense, but if you combine 0-1 run games we went 1-26 while the AL went on average 1.5-24. (Actual net losses: -0.5 games)

    The Sox scored 2 runs 22 times and went 4-18. The AL avg:  22 games with 5.3- 16.8. We should have won 5.3 games not 4. (Net losses: -1.3 games)

    The Sox scored 3 runs 31 times and went 6-25. The AL avg: 23.8 games w/ 8.4- 15.4. We should have won 10.9 games not 6. (Net losses: -4.9 games)

    The Sox scored 4 runs 17 times and went 8-9. The AL avg: 21.9 games w/ 13.3- 8.6. We should have won 10.3 games not 8. (Net losses: -2.3)

    The Sox scored 5 runs 13 times and went 8-5. The AL avg: 17.6 games with 12.4- 5.2.  We should have won 9.8 games not 8. (Net losses -1.8)

    The Sox scored 6 runs 13 times and went 9-4. The AL avg: 15.5 games with 11.2-4.3. We should have won 9.4 games not 9. (Net losses -0.4)

    The Sox scored 7 runs 13 times and went 12-1. The AL avg: 11.5 games w/ 9.4-1.7. We should have won 10.6 games not 12. (Net wins +1.4)

    The Sox scored 8-9 runs 12 times and went 8-4. The AL avg: 14.5 gms w/ 11.2 -3.3.  We should have won 9.8 games not 8. (Net losses -1.8)

    The Sox scored 10-11 runs 8 times & went 8-0. The AL avg: 6.3 games with 6.2-0.1. We should have won 7.8 games not 8. (Net wins +0.2)

    The Sox scored 12+ runs 7 times and went 5-2. Th AL avg:  4.3 games with  4.3-0.  We should have won 7 games not 5. (Net losses -2.0)

    We were the only AL team to lose any games when scoring over 12 runs and did it twice!

    Total losses charged to the pitching/defense based on the rest of the AL average wins when scoring set amount of runs: 13.4.

     

    A look at our hitting by comparing the amount of wins we had compared to the AL average when our staff let up a certain amount of runs:

    We had 4 shutouts. The rest of the AL averages 10.6 shutouts. Wow! Big deduction for our staff.

    We let up 1 run 19 times and went 17-2.            AL avg: 16.8 games with  15.3-1.5. We should have won 17.3 games not 17. (Net losses -0.3)

    We let up 2 runs 15 times and went 11-4.           AL avg: 21.9 games with 17.5-4.4.  We should have won 12 games not 11. (Net losses -1.0)

    We let up 3 runs 17 times and went 11-6.           AL avg: 24.2 games with  16.9-7.3. We should have won 11.3 games not 11. (Net losses -0.3)

    We let up 4 runs 25 times and went 9-16.          AL avg: 21.9 games with  9.4- 12.5. We should have won 10.7 games not 9.  (Net losses -1.7)

    We let up 5 runs 25 times and went 12-13.         AL avg: 16.9 games with 5.1- 11.8. We  should have won 7.5 games not 12. (Net gain: +4.5 wins) 

    We let up 6 runs 20 times and went 5-15.           AL avg: 14.3 games with 4.1-10.2.  We should have won 5.7 games not 5. (Net losses: -0.7)

    We let up 7 runs 13 times and went 0-13.              AL avg: 10.8 games with 2.1-8.7. We should have won  2.5 games not 0. (Net losses -2.5)

    We let up 8-9 runs 9 times and went 0-9.              AL avg: 14.5 games with 2.8-11.7. We should have won 1.7 games not 0. (Net  losses -1.7)

    We let up 10-11 runs 7 times & went 0-7.               AL avg: 3.8 games with  0.1-3.7. We should have won  0.1 games not 0. (Net losses -0.1)

    We let up 12+ runs 8 times and went 0-8.              AL avg: 4 games with a 0-4 record. We should have won 0 games and won 0. (Net: 0)

    As you can see we let up way too many high scoring games by our opps, but based on the amount of wins we should have had with these given runs allowed we should have won 4.8 more games.

    Our offense lost us about 5 games.

    Our pitching/defense lost us about 13 games.

    Although these numbers do not show the whole picture...

    Facts are facts.

     

     

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    According to this our pitching, which finished 12th in the AL in ERA, gave up five or more runs in more than half of the games. The highest ERA in the AL was Cleveland at 4.78. Think about that: you are generally going to lose games when you surrender that many runs. You are absolutely right, and its really no secret: our pitching sucked. Its been going downhill since 2007 and everyone in the organization either chose not to fix it or, more likely, were unable to fix it. What does that say about our FO?

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    More simply put, our mean runs scored was 4. The league W-L percentage in 4 run games is .599.

    Our mean runs allowed was 5. The league W-L percentage in 5 run games is .318.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    Moon - I am wondering if you can break this down a bit more. Now I only see about 20 Sox games a year but what I did find disturbing in Sox pitching was runs they gave up in the first 3-4 innings. When starting the game, if you give up 2 or 3 runs early and force your team to have to play come back ball, even if you shut own the opposing teams between innings 5 - 9, I think you are asking a lot from your offense. I especially noticed this with Beckett.

    Now I admit I am giving a small sample size. What is your opinion on this assessment?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to jesseyeric's comment:

    Moon - I am wondering if you can break this down a bit more. Now I only see about 20 Sox games a year but what I did find disturbing in Sox pitching was runs they gave up in the first 3-4 innings. When starting the game, if you give up 2 or 3 runs early and force your team to have to play come back ball, even if you shut own the opposing teams between innings 5 - 9, I think you are asking a lot from your offense. I especially noticed this with Beckett.

    Now I admit I am giving a small sample size. What is your opinion on this assessment?



    We let up runs early, late & inbetween.

    Here's a breakdown of runs allowed by innings:

    1) 63

    2) 87

    3) 120

    4) 100

    5) 96

    6) 94

    7) 90

    8) 88

    9) 68 (Remember, sometime when losing away our pitchers don't pitch the 9th)

    Our biggest innings were 3-5.

     

    FYI: on runs scored by our offense, we were very balanced by innings:

    87, 94, 85, 96, 87, 80, 86, 73, 41

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

      Thanks MOON.....  That tells me that the CHICKEN & BEER FAT-CAT$ were alive & well in 2012  !!!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    BILL, let's move on from the "Fat cats" mantra. They've been gone a while now, and we are looking at the transformation you have called for for over a year. 

    Look ahead- not behind!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    It's always pitching.  5-6 top ERAs in the NL are in the playoffs.  5-7 in the AL.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    And Ben did nothing to correct the situation and now he regrets for not doing anything and promises address the pitching issue in winter.  I don't believe him.  He will probably sign Edwin Jackson and slide him to #3 spot and tells us that he signed a top of rotation guy who will help us win.  He will also tells us that Lackey will be back to his form and strengthen this rotation.  I also hope he comes back and contribute like he used to when he was in Anaheim.  I don't see Ben planning for big and brave moves for 2013.  He's not a big market team GM. 

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    Told you last year if a pitcher is going to only pitch 5 innings and give up 5 runs you are toast as a team. The staff was showing weakness July 1 2011 and the only reason we had a great summer was the offense was on a legendary tear. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

    Told you last year if a pitcher is going to only pitch 5 innings and give up 5 runs you are toast as a team. The staff was showing weakness July 1 2011 and the only reason we had a good month was th eoffense was on a legendary tear. 



    It wasn't showing weakness, it was showing injuries and/or a lack of depth.  The GS ERA in July 2011 was 4.54 and August it was 3.97.  The rotation was missing its 3/4/5 SPs.  Thinking of it from another perspective, if you replace your #5 with your #6, it's not big deal, but replacing #4 with #7 is a probably, and replacing #3 with your #8 is impossible.

    There is nothing more consistent than record and GS from your regular rotation.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    It's always pitching, but remember you can't win without MLB batters. The team lacked that post-trade and the team never could create consistency on offense. Did they even have a sustained run of offense anytime? There were times on the best Sox teams that they would have binges. I didn't even see a binge on this team. If they scored 10 one game, they would follow with 2,1,4,0,2,3,1 and then  maybe have a 7 or 8.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    It's always pitching, but remember you can't win without MLB batters. The team lacked that post-trade and the team never could create consistency on offense. Did they even have a sustained run of offense anytime? There were times on the best Sox teams that they would have binges. I didn't even see a binge on this team. If they scored 10 one game, they would follow with 2,1,4,0,2,3,1 and then  maybe have a 7 or 8.




    My guess is that that is true for most teams offensively: they score lots of runs sometimes and very few runs at other times. Wonder if there is an easy place to look that up and see if the Sox were simply mirroring the league in that regard.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    It's always pitching, but remember you can't win without MLB batters. The team lacked that post-trade and the team never could create consistency on offense. Did they even have a sustained run of offense anytime? There were times on the best Sox teams that they would have binges. I didn't even see a binge on this team. If they scored 10 one game, they would follow with 2,1,4,0,2,3,1 and then  maybe have a 7 or 8.



    Not very long stretches, no. Here's the best I came up with:

    Late April: 9, 6, 11, 7, 10, 10

    Mid june: 7, 7, 16, 6, 1, 8, 9, 6, 5, 10 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    I don't see Ben planning for big and brave moves for 2013.  He's not a big market team GM. 

    We should not jump at the big ticket pitchers this year, if they are not worthy of pinning our WS hopes on. 

    I don't think it is fair to judge Ben too harshly over last winter's moves and non-moves. I think the budget was restricted. This winter should be otherwise.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    BILL, let's move on from the "Fat cats" mantra. They've been gone a while now, and we are looking at the transformation you have called for for over a year. 

    Look ahead- not behind!

      Thats an EYE EYE SIR  !!!!!!


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    And Ben did nothing to correct the situation and now he regrets for not doing anything and promises address the pitching issue in winter.  I don't believe him.  He will probably sign Edwin Jackson and slide him to #3 spot and tells us that he signed a top of rotation guy who will help us win.  He will also tells us that Lackey will be back to his form and strengthen this rotation.  I also hope he comes back and contribute like he used to when he was in Anaheim.  I don't see Ben planning for big and brave moves for 2013.  He's not a big market team GM. 


    I am very optimistic about Lackey and heard a few of the local analysts, (not sure who), say that he looked better than he as in five years.  We should hope that Lackey can be the pitcher he was a few years ago.  He might turn out to be one of the best starting  pitchers for the Red Sox next season.  Not sure who will be signed for next season, but I expect Ben to sign at least one starting pitcher, in addition to improving the bullpen.  I think the major difference going forward is that they won't sign free agents or anyone that they trade for to  a long-term contract. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    Looking at the pitching matchups before the games this year , it was noticeable that the opposing pitcher almost always had a lower ERA than our starter.  While we can certainly use more offense , it was pretty apparent that our pitching was our biggest problem area.  Changing that should be the number one priority this off season.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    I agree with you all that it is about the pitching.  If you look at the year of 2003 to 2008, it is all about pitchings.  Boston had Pedro, Beckett, Schilling, Lowe, Wakefield, Bucholz, Lester, Dice K, along others who are all have ranked in top 10 American League pitchers in any categories such as innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, few BB's, during that time.  

    Reason is that they are a true upper part of the starting rotation pitchers!!!

    This year, there is nt any except maybe Bucholtz.  

    That is what Boston need to work on.   Get an ACE pitcher!!!  Not just to get a pitcher to eat up innings like fans mentioned about Arroyo!!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to dannycater's comment:

    It's always pitching, but remember you can't win without MLB batters. The team lacked that post-trade and the team never could create consistency on offense. Did they even have a sustained run of offense anytime? There were times on the best Sox teams that they would have binges. I didn't even see a binge on this team. If they scored 10 one game, they would follow with 2,1,4,0,2,3,1 and then  maybe have a 7 or 8.




    My guess is that that is true for most teams offensively: they score lots of runs sometimes and very few runs at other times. Wonder if there is an easy place to look that up and see if the Sox were simply mirroring the league in that regard.




    Isn't that exactly what Moon proved (at leaast for 2012) with the OP?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Facts Are Facts: It Was More About the Pitching than the Hitting...

    As a side note, separating out the road hitting statistics, the Red Sox were last in the league in OPS, wRC* and wRC+ away from home:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=16&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

    In home hitting statistics, the Sox were fifth in the league in OPS, third in wRC and tied for fifth in wRC+.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=15&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

    * http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/

     
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