In response to moonslav59's comment:
Because you like them most, or because they are the best per dollar listed?
I prefer McCann and Ruiz-Salty is a coin flip. Probably would prefer to give Salty another year to convince me. But not at 1-14, when I can have Ruiz at 2-17. Its close. Thats why Salty is my least certain guy to give a QO to.
I'm not sure how good Ruiz is on defense, but the familiarity will be starting at zero. It wasn't a problem with Ross, but he was known as a "pitcher's catcher". To me, Ruiz seems like the "coin flip" will come out wrong, since he is 35 and coming off a .688 OPS season.
You really don't think Bogey is better at 3B than SS? If we lose Napoli, we could move Middy to 1B and have Carp/Nava as back-up, in case he struggles again.
I am not sure about Bogaerts defense at 3rd base. They have not hit the ball his way over there much. I have some questions about quick instincts and arm strength still.
My guess is if his arm is good enough to throw from the SS hole with his momentum going the wrong way, he's good enough from 3B. He has more of a 3Bman body than SS. I'd bet he's better at 3B than SS within one year.
As for his defense at SS, my guess at this stage would be poor. But thats better then bad, very bad, terrible, Hanley, and Jeter. At this point not taking the other players into account, I would hope he plays SS next year.
My guess is he is our FT SS next year, but I'd prefer he gets moved to 3B as soon as possible.
Even Matsusaka was very good until he hurt his arm. The only thing that would concern me is the 6 years with Lester on the horizon.
Six years for almost anyone scare me, but for a player that has never proven himself, I can't jump onboard. Dice-K did not cost $20M a year toward the cap.
I agree Naps and Salty are the likely returnees, but I think the trade we make takes one of Bogey, Middy or JBJ out of a FT job.
True. However, I would not make the trade for a star player until the trade dead line. Then we could replace the weak link above. It would work perfectly.
Could be a good idea, but I think you get better deals in the winter.
I only want one of Napoli and Drew, and I think Napoli fits best, despite my serious reservations about Bogey's D at SS. If we are sure Drew turns down the minimum QO 1 year offer, I'd go ahead and do it.
Ellsbury: $60M/4 would be an insult, and I realize you have to overpay to get the best free agents, but I really want to avoid a 5+ year deal for Jacoby. I get the value of speed and plus defense, and I know we will sorely miss Jacoby when he walks, but I would bid up no higher than $64M/4 with a 5th year club option at $14M with a $4M buyout, making it a $68M/4 or $78M/5 deal. This basically guarantees Jacoby walks. We get the drfat pick, and we use the money to keep other free agents (see below) or to help partially replace the OF position and upgrade other high need areas.
I would only do 5-88. So I would let him walk as well.
Salty: $50M/4 with a club option 5th year at $10M with a $2M buyout, making it a $52M/4 or $60M/5 deal. If he refuses, offer him $28M/2 or $15M/1.
Watching the Red Sox not start Salty a number of times including against righties in the playoffs makes me think the stories about how great the Sox think he is doing may have been over stated a bit in the press. This year he has improved on both offense and defense. But improvement does not mean excellence. No way I do 4-52. And if I did do a long term deal, it would be at a number that was more easily tradable. Might do 4-40. But I would already be thinking about trading him while the ink was still drying.
He won't take $40/4, so you might as well just say you don't want him back.
Napoli: $26M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $30M/2. Attach a club option 3rd year for $13M with a $2M buyout, making it a $28M/2 deal (meets QO status) or $39M/3 with incentives that could make it $30M/2 or $45M/3.
Can someone explain how things are that different for Napoli compared to last season when he could not even get a 1 year gauranteed contract? He is one year older. His hip is still ill. He improved his OPS only .030 while not having to catch and having a BABIP that was sky high with huge and increasing K issues. I would not do a multy year deal. If he walks we get the pick and still have Nava-Carp-Middlebrooks. Its 1 year or out with Naps for me.
I may be wrong, but I heard his hip is not "getting worse", and he was healthy all year. The part that got me to increase my numbers and years was his stanout defense and clutch hitting. Losing Ellsbury and Napoli would be too much to overcome without some type of huge signing (Choo/McCann?) or blockbuster trade (Stanton?)
Drew: If Napoli stays, offer Drew the minimum 1 year QO and hope he says no. If Napoli says no, I'd offer Drew a deal similar to Napoli's.
I prefer just one as well. However, I don't think having both is a horrible out come. Its basically the same scenerio as this year, only with Bogaerts replacing Iggy. We still could trade Drew. Or Middlebrooks. Or start Bogaerts in AAA. An injury could occur just like this year. One too many guys often finds ways to work out.
Plus, Drew probably passes on the QO anyway. His agent is Boras. I am ready to take that chance and work out what to do afterwards.
If we lose Ellsbury and Salty, then keeping Naps and Drew could be a way to go, Then upgrade other areas with the savings.
If Salty walks, I'd look for a short term fix (Ruiz for 1-2 years?) I don't overpay for McCann.
Is 4-59 an over pay for McCann?
If I'm prepared to give $50M/4 to Salty, I have to say no it's not an overpay, since McCann has good enough splits to play against LHPs as well. (Maybe $48M/4 is a better offer to Salty.) My guess is McCann will get $70M/5. He is still 29.