Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.
posted at 2/9/2012 8:06 AM EST
In Response to FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.
[QUOTE]FanGraphs #1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. The Tigers overpaid and got a star. The Phillies overpaid and got a reliever, then had salt rubbed in the wound when the reliever they were replacing ended up signing with another NL contender for 17% of the guaranteed money they gave Papelbon. The list of big contracts for free agent relievers that have turned out well is extremely short, and while Papelbon has been a very good reliever thus far in his career, he’s not without his own set of risks. For a team that had other holes to fill, this just wasn’t a good use of resources, especially with the glut of relievers on the market. By exercising a little more patience, the Phillies could have walked away with a good closer, a real answer in left field, upgraded their bench, and had enough left over to convince Roy Oswalt to return. Instead, they decided to go all-in on a ninth inning upgrade that might not even turn out to be a big upgrade.
Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]
That's an overly harsh assessment.
They offered Madson 4/44 and he turned it down. Offering 4/50 to Pap is reasonable considering what Madson just turned down. They went into the market early, probably fearing getting frozen out and having a GLARING hole ina very important spot, on a good team.
Hindsight is always 20/20, very convenient for fangraphs to, retroactively, say they could have been patient. Ther could have easily been a run on closers, and they would have been left out in the cold.
On the surface, Papelbon's contract is not bad at all. I'd be MUCH more afraid of all those huge contracts going to power hitters. Papelbon has been the second best closer in baseball, or very close to it, for a few years, and he's getting paid like it. I don't see the problem.