FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]FanGraphs #1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. The Tigers overpaid and got a star. The Phillies overpaid and got a reliever, then had salt rubbed in the wound when the reliever they were replacing ended up signing with another NL contender for 17% of the guaranteed money they gave Papelbon. The list of big contracts for free agent relievers that have turned out well is extremely short, and while Papelbon has been a very good reliever thus far in his career, he’s not without his own set of risks. For a team that had other holes to fill, this just wasn’t a good use of resources, especially with the glut of relievers on the market. By exercising a little more patience, the Phillies could have walked away with a good closer, a real answer in left field, upgraded their bench, and had enough left over to convince Roy Oswalt to return. Instead, they decided to go all-in on a ninth inning upgrade that might not even turn out to be a big upgrade.
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    That's an overly harsh assessment.

    They offered Madson 4/44 and he turned it down. Offering 4/50 to Pap is reasonable considering what Madson just turned down. They went into the market early, probably fearing getting frozen out and having a GLARING hole ina very important spot, on a good team.

    Hindsight is always 20/20, very convenient for fangraphs to, retroactively, say they could have been patient. Ther could have easily been a run on closers, and they would have been left out in the cold.

    On the surface, Papelbon's contract is not bad at all. I'd be MUCH more afraid of all those huge contracts going to power hitters. Papelbon has been the second best closer in baseball, or very close to it, for a few years, and he's getting paid like it. I don't see the problem.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. : That's an overly harsh assessment. They offered Madson 4/44 and he turned it down. Offering 4/50 to Pap is reasonable considering what Madson just turned down. They went into the market early, probably fearing getting frozen out and having a GLARING hole ina very important spot, on a good team. Hindsight is always 20/20, very convenient for fangraphs to, retroactively, say they could have been patient. Ther could have easily been a run on closers, and they would have been left out in the cold. On the surface, Papelbon's contract is not bad at all. I'd be MUCH more afraid of all those huge contracts going to power hitters. Papelbon has been the second best closer in baseball, or very close to it, for a few years, and he's getting paid like it. I don't see the problem.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    Did Madsen turn it down or did the Phillies just make a decision that if they were going to spend $44 million on Madsen that spending $50 million on the more experienced, battle tested closer in Papelbon?

    I don't think Madsen ever had a chance to accept the Phils offer. As a matter of fact, and if I recall correctly, he was going to accept the deal when the Phils pulled it off the table to chase Paps.



     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.




    Phillies lack offense, the addition of 
    Pap is negligible.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    Phillies hardly improved, by adding Papelbon, in replacing what Madson provided them in the 9th inning last year.  But that is not really the point.  They got the better reliever for just a bit more per season than Madson would have cost them.  Apparently they did not think Madson was worth the risk and Papelbon was.  I am one who disagrees on this, and I have taken my share of criticism for that, but I suspect Madson will turn out to be the better deal over the lifetime of Papelbon's contract.

    That said, it is ridiculous of Fangraphs to suggest that if the Phillies had been more patient they could have had their bullpen upgrade, and all the other pieces they needed, and still had enough money left over to sign Oswalt.  Too many unknowns to suggest anything like that. 

    Who's to say that Papelbon would not have signed elsewhere for just as big a contract?  Who is to say Madson would have signed for the $44 million/4 year deal that DID NOT get agreed to, or anything close to that?  If the Phillies make an offer to Papelbon that is more reasonable and wait around to find out if he accepts or counters, Madson might well decide he is not going to even consider signing with them if they lose out on Papelbon.  There is just no telling what would have happened.  The Phillies decided who the best closer on the market was, and they offered a contract he couldn't refuse, and did it before the Sox could even counter. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. : Did Madsen turn it down or did the Phillies just make a decision that if they were going to spend $44 million on Madsen that spending $50 million on the more experienced, battle tested closer in Papelbon? I don't think Madsen ever had a chance to accept the Phils offer. As a matter of fact, and if I recall correctly, he was going to accept the deal when the Phils pulled it off the table to chase Paps.
    Posted by Soxdog67[/QUOTE]

    From what I remember, they offered 4/44, Borass advised his client to hold out for more, and the Phils jumped all over Papelbon and told Borass good luck.

    Here's a local Philly article discussing the very same thing, seems noone really knows for sure:

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/137090568.html?viewAllLatest=y&

    Aptly titled: 'Who Botched Things for Ryan Madson?'

    I can realistically believe Borass messed it up. But I can also believe maybe Borass stalled for a day, and the Phils were shocked Pap took their offer, and were happy to have him.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from cglassanos. Show cglassanos's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    I simply cannot see how this is the number one worst offseason move.

    Regardless of luxury tax, value per dollar, "is he worth it" ya ya ya, Papelbon is an addition and a very good one at that.  He makes any team instantly better in the closing position. He's arguably the #2 closer in MLB and as soon as Mo retires he's going straight to numero uno.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    Point again - the Phillies did not need to "get better" at the closer position. It would be like replacing AGon with Pujols, NEGLIGIBLE.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. : From what I remember, they offered 4/44, Borass advised his client to hold out for more, and the Phils jumped all over Papelbon and told Borass good luck. Here's a local Philly article discussing the very same thing, seems noone really knows for sure: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/137090568.html?viewAllLatest=y& Aptly titled: 'Who Botched Things for Ryan Madson?' I can realistically believe Borass messed it up. But I can also believe maybe Borass stalled for a day, and the Phils were shocked Pap took their offer, and were happy to have him.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    hey dragon, I think you nailed it! Thanks.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    Read the link.  Made me think that maybe the 44/4 was a Borass invention, with hopes the Sox would bite, having just lost Papelbon.  Kudos to Ben and LL for doing it the way they did.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    One thing became obvious:

    Borass is a slimy, double-speaking snake. But I guess that's old news.

    Sure, he gets top players absurd contracts, but I hope everyone else pays attention to peoople like Varitek and Madson, and some players start to sign elsewhere, realizing he's full of carp.

    And to above, like replacing Agon with Pujols....not really. When the seaosn ended, they had no closer. Madson rejected arbitration. They had noone to close games. So it wasn't a lateral move, they needed to sign someone, and they went with the best closer on the market...quite an improvement over....Contreras, who was next in line.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    I have trouble thinking of the Papelbon signing as a bad move for the Phils.  They are getting a really good closer, which is what they paid for.  So, its not like john Lackey or something.  And, if they have the resources, hey, go get your guy Ruben.  There is of course uncertainty in the move only if it ties up resources where they are needed elsewhere.  Dunno.  But, hard to think of it is a 'bad' move per se.

    But, in any case, it makes me really happy with Ben C.  Getting young studs Bailey and Melancon, on the upside of their careers, under team control for cheap for a long time, for expendable prospects and at a fraction of the cost of Papelbon (who, while still very good, ain't gettin' any better), was really great, especially given how much money the Sox have tied up in long-term giant contracts, good and bad.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from MustangBri. Show MustangBri's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]Phillies lack offense, the addition of  Pap is negligible.  
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Jimmy Rollins
    Chase Utley
    Ryan Howard
    Jim Thome
    Shane Victorino
    Hunter Pence

    Yeah...  that's a "lack of offense"???
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]I simply cannot see how this is the number one worst offseason move. Regardless of luxury tax, value per dollar, "is he worth it" ya ya ya, Papelbon is an addition and a very good one at that.  He makes any team instantly better in the closing position. He's arguably the #2 closer in MLB and as soon as Mo retires he's going straight to numero uno.
    Posted by cglassanos[/QUOTE]

    Sssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh - please don't utter those words to loudly. They scare me.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    You can't use the 4/44 as a baseline in this argument - it would have been idiotic to offer that to Madson, as his eventual 1 year / 8.5M deal demonstrates.  So to say the Phillies did well to offer Papelbon only a little more than the idiotic offer to Madson is ridiculous.  Also, lost in this analysis is the fact that if Philly had waited two weeks, they would not have to forfeit a first round draft pick.  I don't know if they can be faulted for this, but it certainly makes them look silly in retrospect.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    Guess he was right when he told Joe Nathan he will set the bar for closers and Nathan said let him do that...Kudos for Paps for getting a sweet deal...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    The contention is that Papelbon's contract was the worst move of the off-season, to people who think it was not, then what was?

    I thought that Philly over-paid when the deal was completed and after seeing Madson get a 1 year 8 million dollar deal, the Phillies have to be questioning why they spent 50 million on a guy who only slightly upgrades a position where huge contracts rarely pan out. 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]One thing became obvious: Borass is a slimy, double-speaking snake. But I guess that's old news. Sure, he gets top players absurd contracts, but I hope everyone else pays attention to peoople like Varitek and Madson, and some players start to sign elsewhere, realizing he's full of carp. And to above, like replacing Agon with Pujols....not really. When the seaosn ended, they had no closer. Madson rejected arbitration. They had noone to close games. So it wasn't a lateral move, they needed to sign someone, and they went with the best closer on the market...quite an improvement over....Contreras, who was next in line.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]


    Dragon, 

    I quote you, "They had noone to close games".

    Who is noone

    H-Pete
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from LadyLake. Show LadyLake's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. : Dragon,  I quote you, "They had noone to close games". Who is noone H-Pete
    Posted by Hetchinspete[/QUOTE]

    That would be #100 - Makiavelli Noone. He's greek I believe.

    Now quote this....p h uck you! Hahahaha, all in good fun, but let this be the last time you use my own words against me, that's not what they're for!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    I don't know if it's the worst offseason contract (I'd have to go with Fielder's as the worst), but I think the contract the Phillies gave Paps is insane.  The Phillies are getting a darn good closer, no doubt, but you can get pretty close to the same production from the closer's position at a fraction of the cost.  I wanted Paps back, but I'm glad the Sox did not offer him a 4 year contract (plus a vesting option for a 5th year).
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    Pujols
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    I think fangraph's rightfully devalues the significance of a pitcher who only pitches 50-70 IP a year. Paps isn't really worth $50M/4 even if he has 4 career norm years.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]I simply cannot see how this is the number one worst offseason move. Regardless of luxury tax, value per dollar, "is he worth it" ya ya ya, Papelbon is an addition and a very good one at that.  He makes any team instantly better in the closing position. He's arguably the #2 closer in MLB and as soon as Mo retires he's going straight to numero uno.
    Posted by cglassanos[/QUOTE]

    Completely agree. Lucky Phillies.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.

    In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FANGRAPHS:ten worst offseason moves-#1 – Phillies Sign Jonathan Papelbon for 4/50M. : Sssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh - please don't utter those words to loudly. They scare me.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    Don't worry. Pap will retire before Mo does. Mo can still throw that outside pitch for a strike as long as the umpires continue to let him do it because he's Mo.
     

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