FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    harness is pitching predominant and this is a way for him to show that all pitching numbers have to be taken differently at Fenway while at the same time show that it's the other factors that contribute to winning. But the offense is quite good on the road and it's a major reason why the team is winning on the road. The pitching on the Sox is strong, especially a great, great pen for most of the year. But without the Sox generating the excellent road offense, the team is not leading the world in road victories. You can say, it's actually power-hitting predominant on the road. The defense is strong too overall, more sound than most of the other teams. The Sox are an offensive juggernaut--home and road.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    roy, i only read harness and moon's posts. :-) 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]exactly Phil...so where is the great distortion? The Sox lead MLB with the most road home runs...home runs are automatic runs...Sox are scoring 5 per game on the road....what's the point of this thread? That Fenway distorts everything, something that we've known for years and years regarding batting average and offense in general. It's a .253 batting lineup that is powerful. Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs insisted that had they both hit for more power their batting averages would have gone down significantly over their careers. I'd rather have a .250 hitting home run hitter on the road in a close game than a .300 hitting banjo guy. It takes 3 singles to drive in a road run. It takes one homer, like Varitek's 2-run bomb, yesterday to change the complexion of a game. 
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    "Offensive Juggernaut" by the media could have been looking at more than one offensive statistic. I too don't see the point of the opening post.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]Not quite IMO. As I've shown above, the Sox are still averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, which is still better than most teams averaging at home or away. For instance, a team I didn't mention -- Toronto, which can score runs, are averaging 5.0 runs in Toronto. So the Sox are still averaging more runs on the road, than a team like Toronto is averaging at home. Not a good way to build a ballteam? Averages dont always show us the truth, You have it your way i'll have it mine! Wins are what counts, last I looked im only smelling Phillies fannies!
    Posted by promise4you[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure what your beef is. All that I was pointing out is that the Sox have a better offense on the road than most teams -- Toronto for example -- have at home. I'm all for pitching and defense too.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from promise4you. Show promise4you's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I'm not sure what your beef is. All that I was pointing out is that the Sox have a better offense on the road than most teams -- Toronto for example -- have at home. I'm all for pitching and defense too.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    BEEF? You seem to  be a little sensitive, I have no beef with you, but you did ignore my comment on a way to build a team. Now I ask do you have a point or are you just trying to start an argument which i wll not be involved in! Remember you responded to my post first. Did you take the time to read the whole thing or run off half cocked?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

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    It's really simple. I fail to see the need for the bickering. The writers were right when you look at all of the offense statistics. They are a juggernaut both at home and on the road.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    i don't like getting in the middle of two guys arguing, but I think promise was not criticizing you, roy. I think his post was saying he disagreed with harness's premise?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Phil, then harness will be disappointed that he is wrong here.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : BEEF? You seem to  be a little sensitive, I have no beef with you, but you did ignore my comment on a way to build a team. Now I ask do you have a point or are you just trying to start an argument which i wll not be involved in! Remember you responded to my post first. Did you take the time to read the whole thing or run off half cocked?
    Posted by promise4you[/QUOTE]

    You're not reading your entire post so it seems you're the one going off half-cocked.

    You began your post with the phrase that the Sox were being built for offense at home and pitching and defense on the road. I never once mentioned anything about pitching and defense and that it wasn't important.

    I said "not quite" because it was an overstatement that they were built for pitching and defense on the road. Their road offense is still dangerous, which is the point of this thread. Just because they're not as productive on the road as they are at home, it doesn't mean they're still not dangerous offensively on the road.

    If they're averaging more runs with their road offense than most teams average with their home offense, it seems to me that they're built to win games with their offense on the road too.

    If you look at the way Theo has tried to build the team, he's trying to make them be able to win with pitching, defense and offense instead of just trying to depend on just one or two parts.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I think next the Sox should be built to suit another ballpark to solve this once and for all, my pick Minute Maid. Why? How many offense are designed to take advantage of the hill in center?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]I think next the Sox should be built to suit another ballpark to solve this once and for all, my pick Minute Maid. Why? How many offense are designed to take advantage of the hill in center?
    Posted by BosoxJoe5[/QUOTE]

    We could channel the Sox teams of the early 20th Century when they had to contend with Duffy's Cliff in left.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : We could channel the Sox teams of the early 20th Century when they had to contend with Duffy's Cliff in left.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]
    They could take it even one step forward and not wear numbers at home.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

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    "not quite" thems fightin words.  


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]"not quite" thems fightin words.  
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Best post of the night.

    I love Yosemite Sam.

    Laughing
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    who doesn't ? Laughing
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]The "fab five" are unarguable--the Sox first five hitters, Ellsbury thru Ortiz, are in the top 11 hitters in the AL in OPS.  When was the last time that happened for any AL team?   The offensive juggernaut is also unarguablebecause the Sox lead MLB in runs scored.  They lead the Yankees by 25 runs, and after them the dropoff is significant. Having five pretty darn good hitters and the best offense in MLB doesn't prevent every single loss.  We saw that in the first game in Chicago when the Sox lost, 3-1, because the White Sox starter, normally not that great a pitcher, pitched very well.  Great or even very good pitching can shut down good hitting.  But good hitting sure helps.  The Sox current winning percentage, if maintained, will get the Sox to 101 wins.  The defense has helped by not making a lot of errors.  The bullpen lately has been terrific, especially when you consider the unreliability of the starters.   The starting pitching, on the other hand, has been very unreliable, and the great hitting compensates for the weakness among the starters.  The two best W-L records in the AL belong to the two best offenses, Red Sox and Yankees.   The Fenway Factor, while very real, is not a distortion.  The Sox hit better there, but so do opposing teams.  Opposing teams do not hit as well in their own parks as they do at Fenway, and the Red Sox hitting dips as well.  But it's still good enough to get some wins and maintain the best road W-L record in MLB.   The Sox couldn't hit much Friday at Chicago, but scored 10 for a win on Saturday and another 5 yesterday to win 2 of 3.  Miller escaping with just 3 runs given up was a minor miracle, and Aceves/Bard/Papelbon were their usual excellent selves finishing the game off (4 innings of shutout ball), but those 5 runs were pretty important too.    The above does not mean that the Sox are out of the woods or that pitching isn't important.  In their two WS years, 2004 and 2007, the Sox combined good pitching and good hitting.  This year so far it's been mostly good hitting, and that could be problematical in the playoffs when the importance of pitching, especially starters, is magnified. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]


    Aaahhh, but it is  quite arguable, Max. Statistically, the fab 5 are what you say they are. Statistically, the team has an offensive juggernaut. BUT
    Fenway park distorts these figures. The fab five are what they are in large part due to the Fenway Factor. If you take the next best 'fab five' from another team, and put them in Fenway, and put our fab five in their venue, who would then be better statistically?

    In the 14 parks the team has played in so far this year, they are hitting below .250
    in half of them. If Boston played in Safeco for 81 games, you would not see this supposed offensive juggernaut. Not even close...

    You claim that hitting is why Boston is where they are.
    Check this out:
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/34

    The top 3/4 teams in road pitching: NY.  Texas  Boston.
    Imagine that! Their hitter venues also compromise their pitching, just as it
    allows them to post  top offensive numbers...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from The-Babe-------------. Show The-Babe-------------'s posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Aaahhh, but it is   quite arguable, Max . Statistically, the fab 5 are what you say they are. Statistically, the team has an offensive juggernaut. BUT Fenway park distorts these figures. The fab five are what they are in large part due to the Fenway Factor. If you take the next best 'fab five' from another team, and put them in Fenway, and put our fab five in their venue, who would then be better statistically? In the 14 parks the team has played in so far this year, they are hitting below .250 in half of them. If Boston played in Safeco for 81 games, you would not see this supposed offensive juggernaut. Not even close... You claim that hitting is why Boston is where they are. Check this out: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/34 The top 3/4 teams in road pitching: NY.  Texas  Boston. Imagine that! Their hitter venues also compromise their pitching, just as it allows them to post  top offensive numbers...
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Still waiting for you to tell us how the ball came out of lackey's hand well tonight.....

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Perhaps their success on the road is due to other factors that came into play and some were fortunate or timely or coincidental. How does .253 on the road rate to other teams?
    Posted by Your-Echo[/QUOTE]

    This is an excellent point. The current .253 BA ranks (actually .254 now) ranks
    7th out of 30 teams. But the OPS ranks 2nd.

    IMO, Theo built a road team this year. The CRAWBURY tandem and solid defense overall epitomises this. Regardless of where they rank offensively on the road, as Roy alluded, they still have to have better numbers than their given opposition in their home park. For example, when the team plays the Royals in KC, Are Boston's road numbers close to KC's home numbers in both hitting and pitching? If KC hit .265 at home with a 30 point advantageous differential in OPS, and their home pitching is equal our road numbers, then they have the advantage.
    (just using fictitious data to make a point).

    Boston has a good home record, but it's been better over the years.
    As has been mentioned, PO success stems from the ability to win on the road. Otherwise, the pressure to win at home is immense.

    The RedSox are in first place primarily because of their road record.
    And hitting is not the chief reason.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Still waiting for you to tell us how the ball came out of lackey's hand well tonight.....
    Posted by The-Babe-------------[/QUOTE]

    I forgot; where did they play tonight?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    well, home runs could very well be the major factor why they are averaging 5 runs and winning on the road.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from The-Babe-------------. Show The-Babe-------------'s posts

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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I forgot; where did they play tonight?
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I'm sure lackey would like to forget where they played tonight......

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Babe, Lackey is hit or miss. That's why he's averaged 14 wins a year playing for winning franchises. His salary skews perception of performance, but not performance.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from The-Babe-------------. Show The-Babe-------------'s posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]Babe, Lackey is hit or miss. That's why he's averaged 14 wins a year playing for winning franchises. His salary skews perception of performance, but not performance.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    If I remember correctly I told you and moonie that he would get lit up in fenway back when he was originally signed and all I heard from you two was that his fenway #'s reflected his having to face the sawx lineup.

    You're preaching to the choir here.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I never said any such thing. I wasn't posting in the winter of his signing. Fenway will compromise most pitchers. I've always said that.
    His first year's numbers didn't surprise me at all. Facing tough line-ups. Hitter's venue. Transition year. That's what I preached whenever discussing him. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]FWIW (and whatever it means), other top teams have significant H/A batting splits. But it makes you wonder, how much of Boston's H/A splits are park related, and how much is normal H/A differences that a lot of teams have. Texas might have a greater H/A difference (look at R/G). And look at Boston's HR advantage on the road. Despite OPS and BA difference, Boston runs per game splits are closer (still over 5 per game on the road) than Texas and New York. Texas Home: 85 HR, .294 BA, .511 SLG, .858 OPS, 338 Runs (56 G, 6.0 R/G) Away: 45 HR, .258 BA, .385 SLG, .704 OPS, 210 Runs (53 G, 3.9 R/G) New York Home: 85 HR, .271 BA, .459 SLG, .811 OPS, 327 Runs (59 G, 5.5 R/G) Away: 54 HR, .253 BA, .429 SLG, .751 OPS, 233 Runs 47 G, 4.3) Boston  Home: 59 HR, .308 BA, .492 SLG, .868 OPS (52 G, 309 R, 5.9 R/G) Away: 71 HR, .254 BA, .424 SLG, .758 OPS (54 G, 277 R, 5.1 R/G ) Detroit Home: 52 HR, .268 BA, .422 SLG, .754 OPS (55 G, 240 R, 4.3 R/G) Away: 53 HR, .264 BA, .406 SLG, .738 OPS (53 G, 244 R, 4.6 R/G) I put Detroit in to make a point. Even though there's little difference in production between H/A, Boston's road production still is better than the Tigers' home or away, so by comparision, yes, Boston's road team still is a juggernaut.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    I was gonna post similar, Roy. Note that Boston/NY/Texas venues enhance the hitter's stats. If venue was irrelevant, hitters would have similar numbers in most very park. The idea that the league's best teams are the leagues' best teams due to the fact they are the top hitting teams is wrong.

    The hitting would be compromised in pitcher's parks. The stats are heavily distorted by venue.
     
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