FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Agree. I said it's over-rated in the context of all runs scored. But far more necessary when hitting is limited to .253. I'm not trying to separate or "dismiss" any one element, especially hitting. Just want to put it in a truer perspective. Here's another way to see it: 2009 PO's: Game one : in CA: 5-0 Angels. Boston had 4 hits. Game two : in CA: 4-1 Angels. Boston had 4 hits. Game three : in Boston: 7-6 Angels. Boston had 6 runs on 7 hits - one dinger. Boston hit .245 in CA that year. CA hit .288 at home. Boston pitching in CA that year: 5.06 ERA. CA home ERA: 4.44 That's a 43 point disparity in hitting, favoring CA. And  a .62 run differential in ERA in CA's favor. CA hit .277 in Fenway that year, as compared to Boston's .284. Only a 7 point variance for the RedSox. CA pitchers had a 4.21 ERA in Fenway, compared to Boston's 4.07. A .14 difference. As you can see, it's not  a matter of how Boston stacks up to other teams on the road. Only how they compare in this respect. FWIW: Boston should have won game 3, but Paps imploded for the first time in his PO career. The Angels beat us for the first time in the PO's. Tek sat for the first time in the PO's. VMART handled the pitching staff...
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    And for those of you who claim the road record is validated by comparing our road numbers to that of other teams, read the high-lighted area here again!

    The relevant analogy is comparing Boston on the road to our given opposition's home numbers in their own venue. To be specific, Boston's road numbers in that particular venue.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I didn't quote runs scored or allowed. I'm drawing attention to the vast disparity in BA/OPS/SLG/etc. home/away. Don't you prioritize these numbers? Of course it comes down to winning. And the fact is, the team wins on the road with a major drop-off in these figures. Didn't you claim it was all about run support?  I'd like an explanation as to why - from those who claim it's about our hitting, that the RedSox have the best road record in the game, despite over 100 point drop off in OPS. And a .253 road BA. My position is quite consistent. I said pitching is the over-riding factor. And I echo it in that win-per-start for pitchers over-rides team function. If the claim is that many of our pitchers are winning by huge run support, then it is a matter of hitting? Or venue? Perhaps the ERA's of many pitchers in Fenway skew the issue, as the BA's obviously do. Notice how Burrito's contributions to this thread illustrate his vast knowledge in this area. He posts cartoons.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Yes, I value those numbers. My post was meant to expose your ERA/WHIP don't matter, just wins, but from the hitter's POV.

    Why are wina only most important for pitchers, but not hitters?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : No, not right. You claim it's all about run support, right? Where's all this run support on the road???
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I think I mentioned run support once.

    It's all about Lackey's WHIP (my first stat of choice), his adjusted ERA (my 2nd stat of choice), Quality starts and near QSs, and then several other stats that come before winning% and amount of wins. Run support has little to do with a pitcher's skillset. 

    Overall this year, Lackey has not pitched well. No ther starters here have a 6.20 ERA. Only Miller has a higher WHIP. His wins are a by product of run support and his ability to pitch well enough to keep us in it in a good percentage of our games- something I have praised him for all along- last year included. I was one of the few who did not bash Lackey for last year's performance. He is worse this year than last in almost everything, except near QS%.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Yes, I value those numbers. My post was meant to expose your ERA/WHIP don't matter, just wins, but from the hitter's POV. Why are wina only most important for pitchers, but not hitters?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Please show me exactly where I said ERA/WHIP don't matter.
    I want to see the post. After thousands of posts drawing attention to pitching and this criteria, why on earth would I now dismiss it? You are over-reacting.
    Just because I say winning is the bottom line, which it is, doesn't mean I over-look the building blocks.
    Our prior discussion was about a pitcher's wins over team function.
    This jives with the team road recorddespite a .254 road BA and .757 OPS, does it not??? 

    Ask any pitcher what's most important, and they'll tell you: winning!
    But they will then discuss what is necessary to win.
    Would they rather lose 2-1? Or win 9-8?

    Hitters and pitchers both have equal desire to win. But we both know pitching is the dominant factor, at least that is what I assume you position still is.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    By the way, here is Lackey's road run support:

    5 (loss-Lackey lets up 9)
    0 (loss)
    7 (win- Lackey chooses this game to have his only scoreless gm)
    3 (loss=Lackey lets up 9)
    16 (win)
    5 (loss -Lackey lets up 2 in 7,2, BP loss)
    8 (Lackey lets up 3 ER  and 10 Hits in 5.2)

    44 runs in 7 away games. Looks like plenty to me.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I think I mentioned run support once. It's all about Lackey's WHIP (my first stat of choice), his adjusted ERA (my 2nd stat of choice), Quality starts and near QSs, and then several other stats that come before winning% and amount of wins. Run support has little to do with a pitcher's skillset.  Overall this year, Lackey has not pitched well. No ther starters here have a 6.20 ERA. Only Miller has a higher WHIP. His wins are a by product of run support and his ability to pitch well enough to keep us in it in a good percentage of our games- something I have praised him for all along- last year included. I was one of the few who did not bash Lackey for last year's performance. He is worse this year than last in almost everything, except near QS%.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I just addressed this on the REALISTIC thread. I'm not disagreeing with you about Lackey's 2011 performance. Only in your double standard of giving Beckett a free pass for 2010 for his back issue, but not acknowledging Lackey's elbow, where he took two cort. shots and missed much of May. He admitted to pitching in Pain/Discomfort in April/May. Look at Beckett's numbers last year...and compare them to Lackey's this year. The difference? The degree of the physical issue, and when (what months) it was more pronounced. (First two mainly for both).

    Of course, I could always get sarcastic and say "Josh gets the pass because he's earning his salary this year". Last year? Josh got fat hunting deer while Lackey was at his wife's bed side this last winter", but I'll leave the future sarcasm to you, if you wish to continue it.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from The-Babe-------------. Show The-Babe-------------'s posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I just addressed this on the REALISTIC thread. I'm not disagreeing with you about Lackey's 2011 performance. Only in your double standard of giving Beckett a free pass for 2010 for his back issue, but not acknowledging Lackey's elbow, where he took two cort. shots and missed much of May. He admitted to pitching in Pain/Discomfort in April/May. Look at Beckett's numbers last year...and compare them to Lackey's this year. The difference? The degree of the physical issue, and when (what months) it was more pronounced. (First two mainly for both). Of course, I could always get sarcastic and say "Josh gets the pass because he's earning his salary this year". Last year? Josh got fat hunting deer while Lackey was at his wife's bed side this last winter", but I'll leave the future sarcasm to you, if you wish to continue it.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    You're right harness, lackey is the second coming of Koufax and it's everyone else (including hte groundskeeper's) fault.

    You can tell this by the look on his face when he throws his arms up in disgust at one of his teammates.

     
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    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]I envy you today, burr. I will be on planes and in airports all day. It's not about stats at all....just wins.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Yikes, I will be looking for your moniker as I will be doing the same all day!
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]By the way, here is Lackey's road run support: 5 (loss-Lackey lets up 9) 0 (loss) 7 (win- Lackey chooses this game to have his only scoreless gm) 3 (loss=Lackey lets up 9) 16 (win) 5 (loss -Lackey lets up 2 in 7,2, BP loss) 8 (Lackey lets up 3 ER  and 10 Hits in 5.2) 44 runs in 7 away games. Looks like plenty to me.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    And yet you fail to mention those first 4 losses were in April/May, when he was compromised by elbow inflammation.

    Since his return from the DL:
    16-4 road win over Toronto 6 IP 6 H 4 ER
    2-1 road loss to Philly: 7.6 IP 8 H 2 ER
    9-5 road win over Rays: 5.6 IP  10 H 3 ER

    Total: 2-1 19.3 IP 24 H  9 ER  4.46 ERA (almost same as last year). 1.450 WHIP
    Did he need all that RS?

    BTW: Miller in Fenway: 6.91 ERA  1 win
    Miller on the road: 4.50 ERA  3 wins.

    RedSox team pitching at Fenway:
    33 wins  4.23 ERA 1.326 WHIP .726 OPS
    On the road:
    33 wins  3.53 ERA  1.172 WHIP .663 OPS


    Less run support on the road. 110 point OPS differential.

    Now, look at Lackey's numbers in CA and make the venue adjustments to his healthy Fenway months since his arrival...
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : You're right harness, lackey is the second coming of Koufaxand it's everyone else (including hte groundskeeper's) fault. You can tell this by the look on his face when he throws his arms up in disgust at one of his teammates.
    Posted by The-Babe-------------[/QUOTE]

    You mean Koufax today?
    How about drawing a Kevin Brown analogy?
    Or perhaps Pavano?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheBabe----------------. Show TheBabe----------------'s posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : You mean Koufax today? How about drawing a Kevin Brown analogy? Or perhaps Pavano?
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    The bottom line is your excuses are tiresome, and that's what they are....excuses.

    lackey is not performing, pretty simple.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : The bottom line is your excuses are tiresome, and that's what they are....excuses. lackey is not performing, pretty simple.
    Posted by TheBabe----------------[/QUOTE]

    Most people on this board who use Stats do deliver a thread back up statements with facts, without adding a twist in their favor.  In many cases harness can't, so the excuses take over.  Accepting he may have been wrong doesn't seem to be an option.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Camelwalk. Show Camelwalk's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : You mean Koufax today? How about drawing a Kevin Brown analogy? Or perhaps Pavano?
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    What do these former Yankee pitchers have to do with current Red Sox starter?
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    TheBabe----------------  soon to be TheBabe----------------(-)


    He's right about one thing, Lackey does stink....for what we thought we were getting at least.

    At least lackey has returned to mediocrity, pitching "marginally well" which at this point....I'll take. 
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    m
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Actually harness might just be John Lackey. harness are you John Lackey?
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]TheBabe----------------  soon to be TheBabe----------------(-) He's right about one thing, Lackey does stink....for what we thought we were getting at least. At least lackey has returned to mediocrity, pitching "marginally well" which at this point....I'll take. 

    Posted by ctredsoxfanhugh[/QUOTE]

    His 4 wins since the break have come against kc, tb, seattle and baltimore. 

    I don't think any of those four are going to be confused with the '27 Yankees any time soon.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    You can rip this fact all you want---The Sox have hit 71 road home runs--and that means instant offense. You cannot underestimate the asset of home run hitting on the road and its affects on your winning and losing on the road. So many times when the Sox put men in scoring position on some past teams, they would historically strand runners because the singles and doubles weren't getting the job done. The home run ends the scoring position equation or margin for error. You homer, you score. Varitek's 2-run blast off Buehrle was a MAJOR REASON why the Sox won 5-3 on Sunday. Every time you hit a road home run, you quiet the crowd, you get in the head of the SP. So while distortion here is about Fenway v. other parks, the bottom line is the Sox hit for power away from home and it makes a huge difference in your ability to score runs.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Most people on this board who use Stats do deliver a thread back up statements with facts, without adding a twist in their favor.  In many cases harness can't, so the excuses take over.  Accepting he may have been wrong doesn't seem to be an option.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]


    This coming from one who ridicules others for not living in Boston and thus are at a disadvantage, despite him living in CT.

    This coming from one incapable of a baseball debate. Three times I asked you to defend "Lackey is a bust". Three times you divert the discussion.

    This coming from one who says : "Theo is a liar".
    "Theo wanted Hanley out of town."
    But flies off the handle and hits the IGGY tab when asked to verify the statements.

    Now, tell me about backing up statements, making excuses, diverting subject matter, not accepting accountability.
    With Babe and Burrito in UR corner, you should have plenty of company.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]You can rip this fact all you want---The Sox have hit 71 road home runs--and that means instant offense. You cannot underestimate the asset of home run hitting on the road and its affects on your winning and losing on the road. So many times when the Sox put men in scoring position on some past teams, they would historically strand runners because the singles and doubles weren't getting the job done. The home run ends the scoring position equation or margin for error. You homer, you score. Varitek's 2-run blast off Buehrle was a MAJOR REASON why the Sox won 5-3 on Sunday. Every time you hit a road home run, you quiet the crowd, you get in the head of the SP. So while distortion here is about Fenway v. other parks, the bottom line is the Sox hit for power away from home and it makes a huge difference in your ability to score runs.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    You are absolutely right. Homers on the road are big. I am not disputing that.
    With a 757 OPS and a .254 BA, they damn well better hit some dingers!
    What I am saying is that the HR's are not the primary reason this team has the best road record in baseball, and their best in near a decade.

    Funny that Max hasn't returned to defend his position further.
    The fact that the team is first in hitting overall is a nice thing, but it's venue driven.
    Just as their over-all pitching rating is.

    And having a road .757 OPS is a reflection of the dingers. No doubt.
    It's the best mark in the A.L. for road games. What is being over-looked is that a .757 OPS is a .757 OPS. Come Playoff time, or in any specific series, it comes down to how it rates against the opposition in their ball-park. How our .757 OPS rates in all road stats is a poor barometer, just as is how the team hitting rates against that of all other teams. Saying the RedSox have the league's best hitting line-up is more a reflection of playing 81 games in Fenway than their personnel.

    If we end up playing the Tigers, for example, then just as the games in Fenway are a contest between Redsox production at home as opposed to the Tiger's production on the road (at Fenway), so is the fact we carry .757 road OPS (altered to fit their venue) vs. their .756 OPS at home. The real edge comes down to our pitching staff against their OPS vs. their staff against ours.

    In this respect, the skewed Fenway numbers don't enter into the equation what-so-ever.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I just addressed this on the REALISTIC thread. I'm not disagreeing with you about Lackey's 2011 performance. Only in your double standard of giving Beckett a free pass for 2010 for his back issue, but not acknowledging Lackey's elbow, where he took two cort. shots and missed much of May. He admitted to pitching in Pain/Discomfort in April/May. Look at Beckett's numbers last year...and compare them to Lackey's this year. The difference? The degree of the physical issue, and when (what months) it was more pronounced. (First two mainly for both). Of course, I could always get sarcastic and say "Josh gets the pass because he's earning his salary this year". Last year? Josh got fat hunting deer while Lackey was at his wife's bed side this last winter", but I'll leave the future sarcasm to you, if you wish to continue it.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    1) I didn't give Josh a free pass last year or his other bad year here.
    2) Lackey has not has a stellar year here (yet).
    3) Beckett has some playoff gems for us. (Lackey has some for others)

    By the way, since Lackey came off the DL:

    IP 64.2
    ER 37
    ERA: 5.15

    H:   78
    BB: 12
    HBP: 8
    WHIP: 1.515

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Here is how the Red Sox rated on offensive statistics on the road among AL teams.

    OBP    1st
    SLG    1st
    OPS    1st
    BA      7th
    BB      1st
    RBI     2nd
    HR      1st
    R        2nd
    TB      3rd

    Errors  2nd


    A stat. that can be generated if I had the time would be how many teams hit better at home than away on such stats. Is home field venue advantage widespread or nearly universal due to intrinsic factors such as living at home instead of out of a suitcase, being familiar with the ballpark, etc. There seems to be a home field advantage in many sports so I fail to see why some here expect offense to be just as good on the road as at home.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    harness, I have been distracted and busy travelling near and far recently.
    I've meant to address the crux of this thread. I do think Fenway has distorted many stats of individual players and the team as a whole throughout history. Changes made to the park have lessened the impact slightly, but the differentials are still significant.

    I remember the Sox teams of old were "built for Fenway": bif RH'd sluggers, no speed, and few LHPs. While many player benefited from Fenway and their wide differentials prove it, I do think some things should be mentioned:
    1) I truly feel Fenway has ruined several player's swings and overall production, especially young RH'd hitters trying to pull everything.
    2) I truly feel Fenway has hurt several pitcher's careers as well.
    3) In every sport, there seems to be a significant "home field advantage". Teams tend to play better at home, and I'd guess this would be true even if every MLB was exactly the same in everyway (wind, humidity, dimensions, etc...)

    Certainly Sox teams tend to do much much better offensively at Fenway than on the road. It make total sense. Conversley, most pitchers do worse at Fenway: it makes sense too.

    I'm not sure I agree that if you swap the Angels offense (and park) with Boston's, they'd be better than ours (on paper). I also think OPS is closest to the best stat to measure offensive effectiveness, although it too is flawed.

    Here are some interesting numbers of eams we play a significant amount of games against this year (keep in mind how good these team's pitching staffs are and who we might have faced at these parks and vs own park with these teams):

                       PAs  OPS
    @ Bos      2114  .871
    @ NYY        248  .867 (NY's home OPS : .811/ @ Fenway: .762)
    @ TB           246  .630 (TB's home OPS: .665 / @ Fenway: .923)
    @ Balt        237  .793 (Balt's home OPS: .742 / @ Fenway .664)
    @ Toronto 227  1.001 (Tor's home OPS: .773 / @ Fenway .619)
    @ Cle          226  .703 (.731 Before tonight / @ Fenway: 1.068)
    @ LAA        170  .704  (LA's home OPS: .663 / @ Fenway: 847)
    @ Det         154  .799  (Det's home OPS: .754 / @ Fenway: 651) 
    @ CWS        119  .755 (CWS's home OPS: .726 / @ Fenway: 898)

    As you can see, the Sox hit better at away parks than those teams hit at their own parks overall. The variables are many, I know, but conversely only 3 of top 8 teams in PAs have better OPS at Fenway than their overall OPS at home.

    TB & Cleve us at home or away. Maybe it's their pitching. 

    Side note: I'd like to see the same thing done with team ERA/WHIP.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]Here is how the Red Sox rated on offensive statistics on the road among AL teams. OBP    1st SLG    1st OPS    1st BA      7th BB      1st RBI     2nd HR      1st R        2nd TB      3rd Errors  2nd A stat. that can be generated if I had the time would be how many teams hit better at home than away on such stats. Is home field venue advantage widespread or nearly universal due to intrinsic factors such as living at home instead of out of a suitcase, being familiar with the ballpark, etc. There seems to be a home field advantage in many sports so I fail to see why some here expect offense to be just as good on the road as at home.
    Posted by PawsoxPhil[/QUOTE]

    Yes, I saw the link to this. Thanks for taking the time. As I just mentioned, how Boston's road numbers rates against the league is pertinent in the context of looking at the season H/A. I brought up the numbers to the 2009 PO's for a reason. Once they get into the PO's, the only relevance road numbers have is when they are pitted against home numbers of the given opposition.

    In other words, Boston's 757 OPS is a nice road number. No doubt. But it pales in comparison to TX home 858 OPS should we meet them in the PO's. Now, a 757 OPS is a road average. It has to be adjusted for Ranger's park.

    You are right in that teams are expected to win more at home.They have the crowd and are generally built to the specs of their home venue. The point of this thread is to show the vast disparity of H/A numbers and put this "juggernaut" offense into a more realistic perspective. The offensive numbers are venue driven.
    The pitching is compromised.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Yes, I saw the link to this. Thanks for taking the time. As I just mentioned, how Boston's road numbers rates against the league is pertinent in the context of looking at the season H/A. I brought up the numbers to the 2009 PO's for a reason. Once they get into the PO's, the only relevance road numbers have is when they are pitted against home numbers of the given opposition. In other words, Boston's 757 OPS is a nice road number. No doubt. But it pales in comparison to TX home 858 OPS should we meet them in the PO's. Now, a 757 OPS is a road average . It has to be adjusted for Ranger's park. You are right in that teams are expected to win more at home.They have the crowd and are generally built to the specs of their home venue. The point of this thread is to show the vast disparity of H/A numbers and put this "juggernaut" offense into a more realistic perspective. The offensive numbers are venue driven. The pitching is compromised.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Since it is the best offense in baseball, the juggernaut inference still applies IMO.

     

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