FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    "The fab five"
    "Offensive juggernaut"
    "Best offense in baseball"
    "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.".


    Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB
    Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB

    Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA, 55 points less than at home, have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place.

    Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    At least half the time, Harness ... at least half the time.

       :o)

      And I'll happily take half of the best then other options ...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    The same way the Rays did when they made it to the WS with the next to last hitting team in the AL.

    Defense they are 2nd in AL

    Pitching 10th at home and 3rd away in the AL era is .75 lower away

    The relievers despite what many say has been pretty damn good.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    The "fab five" are unarguable--the Sox first five hitters, Ellsbury thru Ortiz, are in the top 11 hitters in the AL in OPS.  When was the last time that happened for any AL team?  

    The offensive juggernaut is also unarguable because the Sox lead MLB in runs scored.  They lead the Yankees by 25 runs, and after them the dropoff is significant.

    Having five pretty darn good hitters and the best offense in MLB doesn't prevent every single loss.  We saw that in the first game in Chicago when the Sox lost, 3-1, because the White Sox starter, normally not that great a pitcher, pitched very well.  Great or even very good pitching can shut down good hitting. 

    But good hitting sure helps.  The Sox current winning percentage, if maintained, will get the Sox to 101 wins.  The defense has helped by not making a lot of errors.  The bullpen lately has been terrific, especially when you consider the unreliability of the starters.   The starting pitching, on the other hand, has been very unreliable, and the great hitting compensates for the weakness among the starters. 

    The two best W-L records in the AL belong to the two best offenses, Red Sox and Yankees.  

    The Fenway Factor, while very real, is not a distortion.  The Sox hit better there, but so do opposing teams.  Opposing teams do not hit as well in their own parks as they do at Fenway, and the Red Sox hitting dips as well.  But it's still good enough to get some wins and maintain the best road W-L record in MLB.
     
    The Sox couldn't hit much Friday at Chicago, but scored 10 for a win on Saturday and another 5 yesterday to win 2 of 3.  Miller escaping with just 3 runs given up was a minor miracle, and Aceves/Bard/Papelbon were their usual excellent selves finishing the game off (4 innings of shutout ball), but those 5 runs were pretty important too.   

    The above does not mean that the Sox are out of the woods or that pitching isn't important.  In their two WS years, 2004 and 2007, the Sox combined good pitching and good hitting.  This year so far it's been mostly good hitting, and that could be problematical in the playoffs when the importance of pitching, especially starters, is magnified. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    "The fab five" "Offensive juggernaut" "Best offense in baseball" "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.". Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA , 55 points less than at home , can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place. Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???
    Posted by harness


    Perhaps their success on the road is due to other factors that came into play and some were fortunate or timely or coincidental. How does .253 on the road rate to other teams?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    There's actually a lot of good news in the Red Sox home-road splits this year.

    Home 33-19 runs scored-allowed 309-246 +63
    Road 33-21 runs scored-allowed 277-197 +80

    Pitching staff road ERA 3.53 road WHIP 1.17

     
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    "The fab five" "Offensive juggernaut" "Best offense in baseball" "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.". Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA , 55 points less than at home , can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place. Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???
    Posted by harness
    Harn, not hard to see,like the good team they are and like good teams do the Sox are also TCB on the road....as we have seen often, a postseason must..
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I'm with harness on the importance of quality pitching, but that .757 road OPS is second only to to St Louis...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    m
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from letsgosox33. Show letsgosox33's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Gonzalez has some crazy home/away splits. That dude was made for Fenway. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Yes, AGon is, but when many of us projected great numbers due to the fact that he was leaving a pitcher's park and coming to a park built for him, many said the tough pitching in the AL East would neatralize it. It hasn't.

     
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    FWIW (and whatever it means), other top teams have significant H/A batting splits. But it makes you wonder, how much of Boston's H/A splits are park related, and how much is normal H/A differences that a lot of teams have. Texas might have a greater H/A difference (look at R/G). And look at Boston's HR advantage on the road. Despite OPS and BA difference, Boston runs per game splits are closer (still over 5 per game on the road) than Texas and New York.

    Texas
    Home: 85 HR, .294 BA, .511 SLG, .858 OPS, 338 Runs (56 G, 6.0 R/G)
    Away: 45 HR, .258 BA, .385 SLG, .704 OPS, 210 Runs (53 G, 3.9 R/G)

    New York
    Home: 85 HR, .271 BA, .459 SLG, .811 OPS, 327 Runs (59 G, 5.5 R/G)
    Away: 54 HR, .253 BA, .429 SLG, .751 OPS, 233 Runs 47 G, 4.3)

    Boston 
    Home: 59 HR, .308 BA, .492 SLG, .868 OPS (52 G, 309 R, 5.9 R/G)
    Away: 71 HR, .254 BA, .424 SLG, .758 OPS (54 G, 277 R, 5.1 R/G)

    Detroit
    Home: 52 HR, .268 BA, .422 SLG, .754 OPS (55 G, 240 R, 4.3 R/G)
    Away: 53 HR, .264 BA, .406 SLG, .738 OPS (53 G, 244 R, 4.6 R/G)

    I put Detroit in to make a point. Even though there's little difference in production between H/A, Boston's road production still is better than the Tigers' home or away, so by comparision, yes, Boston's road team still is a juggernaut.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from promise4you. Show promise4you's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    The fab five"
    "Offensive juggernaut"
    "Best offense in baseball"
    "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.".


    Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB
    Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB

    Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA, 55 points less than at home, can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place.

    Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???


    Have to agree with you on this, but we can say that the Sox were intelligent in building this club to win at home with bats and with pitching and defense on the road. Sounds like the way to build a ball team!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    The fab five" "Offensive juggernaut" "Best offense in baseball" "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.". Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA , 55 points less than at home , can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place. Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be??? Have to agree with you on this, but we can say that the Sox were intelligent in building this club to win at home with bats and with pitching and defense on the road. Sounds like the way to build a ball team!
    Posted by promise4you


    Not quite IMO.

    As I've shown above, the Sox are still averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, which is still better than most teams averaging at home or away. For instance, a team I didn't mention -- Toronto, which can score runs, are averaging 5.0 runs in Toronto. So the Sox are still averaging more runs on the road, than a team like Toronto is averaging at home.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    "The fab five" "Offensive juggernaut" "Best offense in baseball" "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.". Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA , 55 points less than at home , can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place. Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???
    Posted by harness


    This has been true for 100 yrs
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Interesting OP with good subsequent work by Hfx and Roy.  I think the point of the OP is overall offensive team and player production is highly skewed and the Fenway effect needs to be taken into consideration when trying to get an accurate reading on the real productivity of the Red Sox offense.  In the end, the good news is that the 2011 Red Sox are generally outplaying their opponents both on offense and defense; hence, the decent record both home and away. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    "The fab five" "Offensive juggernaut" "Best offense in baseball" "The top teams in the A.L. are the best hitting teams in the A. L.". Redsox in Fenway:      .308 BA  .376 OBP   .492 SLG  .868 OPS  1847 AB Away from Fenway: .253 BA  .333 OBP  .424 SLG  .757 OPS  1858 AB Perhaps the authors and advocates of such statements can explain how the RedSox, with a .253 road BA , 55 points less than at home , can explain how the Sox have the best road record in all of baseball - best they've had in a decade - and the key reason why they are in first place. Are the RedSox really the 'offensive juggernaut' we perceive them to be???
    Posted by harness


    Didn't Orsillo or Remy say that their defense ranks right up there also? So many factors lead to wins and it is simplistic for any scribe to pin it on one element more than others.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I say again, the Fenway Factor is not a "great distortion."  Look at those runs per game provided by Royf19--the Sox score more runs on the road than anyone else, and it takes a terrific offense to do that. 

    And, while I happen to think the Sox defense has been decent this year, it is also fair to say that the left side of the infield, Youk and Scutaro (or Lowrie), doesn't have a lot of range.  Plus, of course, the Sox ERA is the 8th best in the AL.  

    How can anyone think that having a lineup with the first five hitters among the 11 best OPS's in the AL isn't very important?  My goodness, there have been numerous threads attacking Crawford for having a low OPS.  If good or great hitting is "just another but hardly the decisive factor," why the attacks on both Crawford and J.D. Drew? 

    Did I forget to mention that both Pedroia and Ellsbury could end up with about the same numbers--OPS, runs scored, dingers, rbi's, etc--that Pedroia had in 2008 when he won the AL MVP? 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Pitching is not easy in Fenway. A lot of it is psychological. 

    The park can also mess up a lot of hitters as well.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I have a question--what are the Sox home run numbers on the road? My feeling is that they have hit a ton of road home runs and that compensates for a lesser batting average. If the home runs are being hit, the runs are scoring and the offense is generating enough for 5 runs a game. This would also be more a telling factor that the Sox are a tough team for home opponents to face. It's not just .253 v. .308. Also a .442 slugging percentage off a .253 batting average is pretty damn powerful.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    .424 i guess in re-reading it. But still to be 170 points higher in SPCT is an indicator of power hits not singles.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from PawsoxPhil. Show PawsoxPhil's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    I have a question--what are the Sox home run numbers on the road? My feeling is that they have hit a ton of road home runs and that compensates for a lesser batting average. If the home runs are being hit, the runs are scoring and the offense is generating enough for 5 runs a game. This would also be more a telling factor that the Sox are a tough team for home opponents to face. It's not just .253 v. .308. Also a .442 slugging percentage off a .253 batting average is pretty damn powerful.
    Posted by dannycater

    Red Sox way out in front 71 to 58
    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#sectionType=st&playerType=QUALIFIER&statType=hitting&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2011&season_type=ANY&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='AL'&split=a&team_id=&active_sw=&game_type='R'&position=&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=hr&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1312238268986&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    exactly Phil...so where is the great distortion? The Sox lead MLB with the most road home runs...home runs are automatic runs...Sox are scoring 5 per game on the road....what's the point of this thread? That Fenway distorts everything, something that we've known for years and years regarding batting average and offense in general. It's a .253 batting lineup that is powerful. Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs insisted that had they both hit for more power their batting averages would have gone down significantly over their careers. I'd rather have a .250 hitting home run hitter on the road in a close game than a .300 hitting banjo guy. It takes 3 singles to drive in a road run. It takes one homer, like Varitek's 2-run bomb, yesterday to change the complexion of a game. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from promise4you. Show promise4you's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Not quite IMO.

    As I've shown above, the Sox are still averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, which is still better than most teams averaging at home or away. For instance, a team I didn't mention -- Toronto, which can score runs, are averaging 5.0 runs in Toronto. So the Sox are still averaging more runs on the road, than a team like Toronto is averaging at home.

    Not a good way to build a ballteam? Averages dont always show us the truth, You have it your way i'll have it mine! Wins are what counts, last I looked im only smelling Phillies fannies!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    I have a question--what are the Sox home run numbers on the road? My feeling is that they have hit a ton of road home runs and that compensates for a lesser batting average. If the home runs are being hit, the runs are scoring and the offense is generating enough for 5 runs a game. This would also be more a telling factor that the Sox are a tough team for home opponents to face. It's not just .253 v. .308. Also a .442 slugging percentage off a .253 batting average is pretty damn powerful.
    Posted by dannycater


    Didn't you read my first post on this thread?
    Cool
     
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