FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE] Home teams have a .258 league average on 14,417 hits and 55,798 AB's making 41,381 outs, meanwhile Away teams have a .249 league average on 14,610 hits and 58,441 AB's, making 43,831 outs. The ninth inning's extra outs for the visitors means fewer hits, and a lower average. Look at it this way; the visitors have 3,357 more AB's, but only 193 more hits! (.057).
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]

    The question is, how does this affect the road league mean?
    3,357 AB's is about 6% of the total 58,441 AB's. Do we use 6% of the 19 point
    (.261 to .242) disparity? Or 1/9th of the mean (.258 to .249)?
    Either way, it amounts to about 1 point on the total BA, if I'm reading this right.

    Also, is the 1st inning indicative of the range of innings 2 thru 8? Pitchers are trying to establish their stuff in the first frame. Is, say, the 4th inning trending toward a lower variance?

    You are winning me over with this point. Closers/set-up guys make a big difference. But not every loss means facing either. The road team can be out of reach in a lop-sided affair and tee off on a lower depth BP arm, altering the numbers.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Excellent research, Youk!  League Away avg. jives with Boston's .254 road mark. The home mean of .258puts Fenway at a differential of 45 batting points, minus the actual skill level of RedSox hitters over that of "league avg. skill set". Since the road variance to the league mean is 5 points, it could mean the Fenway factor equals 40 points for both the RedSox and the opposition at Fenway. So, Pedey, for example, who's a perceived .306 LT hitter would really be a .285 to .290 hitter given his Fenway average is .323. Road BA of .287. Youk, a perceived .292 career hitter, would be .265 -.280. UR ST.Louis comment cracked me up.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

     Yeah, the St Louis factor has never been researched, but sitting there at the edge of the west, flatland all around, tends to make a man eyes wander, the literal and figurative gateway to a new life, placed smack dab in the middle of All American friendliness, sincerity and wholesome goodness creates an endless journey of the mind to other ways of living. Heck, the dang manager is a drunk driver, and the franchise was built on the spoils of moral warfare (beer). A great place to raise a family, but damn boring on the whole, meanwhile the appeal of the west, cowboys and gold diggers sit perched on that Mississipi River bluff and whisper into your ears.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : The question is, how does this affect the road league mean? 3,357 AB's is about 6% of the total 58,441 AB's. Do we use 6% of the 19 point (.261 to .242) disparity? Or 1/9th of the mean (.258 to .249)? Either way, it amounts to about 1 point on the total BA, if I'm reading this right. Also, is the 1st inning indicative of the range of innings 2 thru 8? Pitchers are trying to establish their stuff in the first frame. Is, say, the 4th inning trending toward a lower variance? You are winning me over with this point. Closers/set-up guys make a big difference. But not every loss means facing either. The road team can be out of reach in a lop-sided affair and tee off on a lower depth BP arm, altering the numbers.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]
     I could look at each inning separately, but before I do, I would say that the the middle innings have the highest batting average due to second and third look at the starter, fatigue, and pitching changes, your middle relievers are the least talented on the depth charts, so naturally the hitting would spike up.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

     All right here's the data; (using the mean)
    Inning
    1st   .261
    2nd  .239
    3rd   .260
    4th  .262
    5th  .257
    6th  .267
    7th   .246
    8th  .243
    9th  .242
      Notice how the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings spike? Then come the set up guys and closers, and out go the lights. Drawing the line between pulling the starter, and handing the ball off to the middle guys is a mathematical quandary. It's easy to signal for the closer, but real managing happens before that auto decision is made.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    Good work, Youk. You've proven UR point. Question is, how much it affects the road numbers. We'd have to look at the avg. number of games it affects. Home teams tied/losing get their last at bat. The difference in number of games, multiplied by total at bats, must then be seen as a pct of the team's total at bats.

    I'm guessing it adds up to about a point in overall BA. There are many factors contributing to home advantage. Since there no real way to measure these intangibles, we can only measure the affects of venue by comparison. I'm going to go venue to venue try and get a better depiction.

    BTW: I expect UR ST.Louis expose` to be hitting the local book store any day now...

     

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