FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    [QUOTE]I never said any such thing. I wasn't posting in the winter of his signing. Fenway will compromise most pitchers. I've always said that. His first year's numbers didn't surprise me at all. Facing tough line-ups. Hitter's venue. Transition year. That's what I preached whenever discussing him. 
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Selective memory...it was during spring training not the winter.

     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Selective memory...it was during spring training not the winter.
    Posted by The-Babe-------------[/QUOTE]

    Whatever. I don't recall anybody saying what you alluded to, which means I likely wasn't posting at the time in question.
    If I said it, I'd tell you. My world doesn't crumble if I come up short. I often take longshot projections that don't pan out. The O's are a perfect example. 100-wins for the 2009 team another. Can't win em all. But my position on Lackey has always been constant.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    ...and wrong.
     
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    [QUOTE]I have a question--what are the Sox home run numbers on the road? My feeling is that they have hit a ton of road home runs and that compensates for a lesser batting average. If the home runs are being hit, the runs are scoring and the offense is generating enough for 5 runs a game. This would also be more a telling factor that the Sox are a tough team for home opponents to face. It's not just .253 v. .308. Also a .442 slugging percentage off a .253 batting average is pretty damn powerful.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Good Point, DC. I did a study for this thread and I found that, going back to 2003 (The year Papi joined the team and the offense took on another dimension) to the present, only once did the teams hit more dingers at Fenway.

    Fenway is a notorious hitter's venue, but it is not a HR park, relatively speaking. Never was. It's more a doubles park. The fact they have a much higher OPS/SLG at home with less homers tells you how over-rated HR's are in the context of RS.

    And while dingers do influence RS on then road, it's not the predominant factor in the team's road success. Pitching/defense is.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I think it's not overrated to hit homers on the road if you are .253. I think it's also not as necessary to hit more homers at home if you are hitting .308 with a higher OPS--because of which you just said...lots of doubles.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

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    The Sox offense is built apparently for everything, but let's include offense with pitching/defense to be fair.

     
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    [QUOTE]harness is pitching predominant and this is a way for him to show that all pitching numbers have to be taken

    differently at Fenway
    while at the same time show that it's the other factors that contribute to winning. But the offense is quite good on the road and it's a major reason why the team is winning on the road. The pitching on the Sox is strong, especially a great, great pen for most of the year. But without the Sox generating the excellent road offense, the team is not leading the world in road victories. You can say, it's actually power-hitting predominant on the road. The defense is strong too overall, more sound than most of the other teams. The Sox are an offensive juggernaut--home and road.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    You nailed it.When you look at where the team stands in pitching compared to other A.L. teams, the numbers are distorted for the same reason hitter's stats are: THE FENWAY FACTOR. The reality is, Boston has one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but their hitting, while potent, isn't what we perceive it to be.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

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    harness, i respect the need for strong pitching, defense in any venue. But I don't underestimate that offense and in particular hitting home runs on the road are not valuable assets. If you do have a team batting .253, but slugging .424, chances are you are scoring runs. If you had a team batting .253 and slugging .350, now you are talking singles hitters and probably a lack of offense-low runs output, and probably a lot of losses...or more losses...unless you have superior pitching.

     
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    I agree that the Sox have an outstanding overall pitching staff, but it sure helps to average 5 runs on the road, and hit homers on the road to compensate for the lower average. I don't think it's a great distortion, the Sox offense at home in so much that it's actually always has been a great divide in hitting for average numbers at home opposed to road. Now, to defend your pitching/defense, it's evident and quite clear that the 2011 pitching staff overall is one of the best from top to bottom since Epstein was GM

     
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    I think it's more of a complete package that the Sox have this year, and it's probably why going 2-10 meant nothing and why they are so many games over. 500....The Sox have the best bullpen (rarity of late to see even Bard give up a run), have the best hitting lineup, have the best defense (or close to it overall), and certainly have 2 of the best SPs in baseball in Lester/Beckett.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]I think it's not overrated to hit homers on the road if you are .253. I think it's also not as necessary to hit more homers at home if you are hitting .308 with a higher OPS--because of which you just said...lots of doubles.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Agree. I said it's over-rated in the context of all runs scored.
    But far more necessary when hitting is limited to .253.

    I'm not trying to separate or "dismiss" any one element, especially hitting. Just want to put it in a truer perspective. Here's another way to see it:

    2009 PO's:

    Game one
    : in CA: 5-0 Angels. Boston had 4 hits.

    Game two: in CA: 4-1 Angels. Boston had 4 hits.

    Game three: in Boston: 7-6 Angels. Boston had 6 runs on 7 hits - one dinger.

    Boston hit .245 in CA that year. CA hit .288 at home.
    Boston pitching in CA that year: 5.06 ERA. CA home ERA: 4.44

    That's a 43 point disparity in hitting, favoring CA.
    And  a .62 run differential in ERA in CA's favor.

    CA hit .277 in Fenway that year, as compared to Boston's .284.
    Only a 7 point variance for the RedSox.

    CA pitchers had a 4.21 ERA in Fenway, compared to Boston's 4.07.
    A .14 difference.

    As you can see, it's not a matter of how Boston stacks up to other teams on the road. Only how they compare in this respect.

    FWIW: Boston should have won game 3, but Paps imploded for the first time in his PO career. The Angels beat us for the first time in the PO's.
    Tek sat for the first time in the PO's. VMART handled the pitching staff...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I was gonna post similar, Roy . Note that Boston/NY/Texas venues enhance the hitter's stats . If venue was irrelevant, hitters would have similar numbers in most very park. The idea that the league's best teams are the leagues' best teams due to the fact they are the top hitting teams is wrong. The hitting would be compromised in pitcher's parks. The stats are heavily distorted by venue.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I'm not underestimating the importance of pitching and defense for team's success nor the fact that venues like Fenway can help hitters. Overall, I think we're in agreement in general.

    However, I think you're looking at this a little bit in a vacuum. Yes, the numbers are down on the road compared to at Fenway for Red Sox hitters. But as I pointed out, the Sox are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, which is more runs per game than every team averages overall except for the Yankees. So I think this goes to show you that the Sox are an offensive juggernaut on the road (5.1 runs per game) -- compared to the competition -- and are so much more than that at home.

    If venue was irrelevant, hitters would have similar numbers in most very park.

    This is a bit of an oversimplification. Venue is relevant, but you also have to take into consideration pitching and since it's a small sample at each location, specific issues -- long road trip, injuries that might have occurred while at one venue, the fact that player or players were slumping that has nothing to do with location, and the simple fact that teams often are better at home than on the road regardless of venue.

    I think the bigger distortion is that the Sox are a better pitching team than the numbers show because of the Fenway Factor.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : I'm not underestimating the importance of pitching and defense for team's success nor the fact that venues like Fenway can help hitters. Overall, I think we're in agreement in general. However, I think you're looking at this a little bit in a vacuum. Yes, the numbers are down on the road compared to at Fenway for Red Sox hitters. But as I pointed out, the Sox are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, which is more runs per game than every team averages overall except for the Yankees. So I think this goes to show you that the Sox are an offensive juggernaut on the road (5.1 runs per game) -- compared to the competition -- and are so much more than that at home. If venue was irrelevant, hitters would have similar numbers in most very park. This is a bit of an oversimplification. Venue is relevant, but you also have to take into consideration pitching and since it's a small sample at each location, specific issues -- long road trip, injuries that might have occurred while at one venue, the fact that player or players were slumping that has nothing to do with location, and the simple fact that teams often are better at home than on the road regardless of venue. I think the bigger distortion is that the Sox are a better pitching team than the numbers show because of the Fenway Factor.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]

    This is debateable, but I agree Fenway distorts perception of Boston pitching.
    You make valid points regarding form, travel time, etc. but the road numbers, while sample-sized, hold true in pitcher venues over the years.

    I researched from 2003 to 2011, and presently:
    The RedSox have a .293 BA over this span (7003 hits in 23,8908 AB, n/i tonight's game:) in Fenway.

    In Oakland, it .261 (294   - 1125). In Safeco, it's only .243 (339-1402).
    Keep in mind, this span of time (2003-2011) encompasses one of the finest offensive runs in Boston's history. Maybe the best (and may not be completely legit).
     A .243 BA in Safeco says a lot about an alleged juggernaut offense.

    As for how many runs the RedSox average on the road, it is only pertinent to each series...and what the opposing home team averages in their own venue. Especially in a short PO series...(see my last post referencing the 2009 PO's).
     
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    [QUOTE]FWIW (and whatever it means), other top teams have significant H/A batting splits. But it makes you wonder, how much of Boston's H/A splits are park related, and how much is normal H/A differences that a lot of teams have. Texas might have a greater H/A difference (look at R/G). And look at Boston's HR advantage on the road. Despite OPS and BA difference, Boston runs per game splits are closer (still over 5 per game on the road) than Texas and New York. Texas Home: 85 HR, .294 BA, .511 SLG, .858 OPS, 338 Runs (56 G, 6.0 R/G) Away: 45 HR, .258 BA, .385 SLG, .704 OPS, 210 Runs (53 G, 3.9 R/G) New York Home: 85 HR, .271 BA, .459 SLG, .811 OPS, 327 Runs (59 G, 5.5 R/G) Away: 54 HR, .253 BA, .429 SLG, .751 OPS, 233 Runs 47 G, 4.3) Boston  Home: 59 HR, .308 BA, .492 SLG, .868 OPS (52 G, 309 R, 5.9 R/G) Away: 71 HR, .254 BA, .424 SLG, .758 OPS (54 G, 277 R, 5.1 R/G ) Detroit Home: 52 HR, .268 BA, .422 SLG, .754 OPS (55 G, 240 R, 4.3 R/G) Away: 53 HR, .264 BA, .406 SLG, .738 OPS (53 G, 244 R, 4.6 R/G) I put Detroit in to make a point. Even though there's little difference in production between H/A, Boston's road production still is better than the Tigers' home or away, so by comparision, yes, Boston's road team still is a juggernaut.
    Posted by royf19[/QUOTE]


    Wow great post, take a second look at Texas and NYY, especially their HR and AVG...
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Wow great post, take a second look at Texas and NYY, especially their HR and AVG...
    Posted by RedSoxFan2OO4[/QUOTE]

    And yet another look: NY/TX in pitching venues, from 2003 thru the present:

    NY at home: .281 BA(6,691 Hits in 23,831 AB)
    NY in Oakland: .255 BA (318-1245)
    NY in Seattle: .261 BA (368-1373)

    TX at home: .284 BA (6864 Hits in 24,125 AB)
    TX in Oakland: .261 BA (748-2862)
    TX in Seattle: .245 BA (701-2865)

    Between the Boston/NY/TX - Ny has the least disparity, as they had a more balanced line-up for larger venues.
     
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    [QUOTE]It's really simple. I fail to see the need for the bickering. The writers were right when you look at all of the offense statistics. They are a juggernaut both at home and on the road.
    Posted by PawsoxPhil[/QUOTE]

    Ummm, a .253 BA is not a juggernaut anywhere. That is the whole point.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    harness, I thought it was NOT primarily about runs scored or allowed; it was just about wins. We have about the same record home and away this year, so that must mean the park makes little difference, right?
     
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    The Red Sox road runs scored and runs allowed numbers are both excellent.  They are scoring 5.13 per game and giving up 3.65.  The Yankees are the only team who has scored more than 5.13 overall.  And no team in the AL has given up less than 3.65 overall.   
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    You tell him moon! He cannot have it both ways. If you need me to back you up with some stats just let me know, I will be outside drinking an Iced Mocha, Skim, No Whip, Vente.

     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    ... but don't forget that harness still looks up to you moon so be gentle in your reprimands.



     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    I envy you today, burr. I will be on planes and in airports all day.

    It's not about stats at all....just wins.
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]harness, I thought it was NOT primarily about runs scored or allowed; it was just about wins. We have about the same record home and away this year, so that must mean the park makes little difference, right?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I didn't quote runs scored or allowed. I'm drawing attention to the vast disparity in BA/OPS/SLG/etc. home/away. Don't you prioritize these numbers?
    Of course it comes down to winning. And the fact is, the team wins on the road with a major drop-off in these figures. Didn't you claim it was all about run support? 
    I'd like an explanation as to why - from those who claim it's about our hitting,
    that the RedSox have the best road record in the game, despite over 100 point drop off in OPS. And a .253 road BA.
    My position is quite consistent. I said pitching is the over-riding factor. And I echo it in that win-per-start for pitchers over-rides team function. If the claim is that many of our pitchers are winning by huge run support, then it is a matter of hitting? Or venue? Perhaps the ERA's of many pitchers in Fenway skew the issue, as the BA's obviously do.

    Notice how Burrito's contributions to this thread illustrate his vast knowledge in this area.
    He posts cartoons.
     
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    [QUOTE]I envy you today, burr. I will be on planes and in airports all day. It's not about stats at all....just wins.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I hope you catch UR planes, Moon.
    'Cause you sure are missing the boat here...
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

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    [QUOTE]harness, I thought it was NOT primarily about runs scored or allowed; it was just about wins. We have about the same record home and away this year, so that must mean the park makes little difference, right?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    No, not right. You claim it's all about run support, right?
    Where's all this run support on the road???
     
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    Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion

    In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion : Good Point, DC . I did a study for this thread and I found that, going back to 2003 (The year Papi joined the team and the offense took on another dimension) to the present, only once did the teams hit more dingers at Fenway. Fenway is a notorious hitter's venue, but it is not a HR park, relatively speaking. Never was. It's more a doubles park. The fact they have a much higher OPS/SLG at home with less homers tells you how over-rated HR's are in the context of RS. And while dingers do influence RS on then road, it's not the predominant factor in the team's road success. Pitching/defense is.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Among non-Sox fans, this is not common knowledge, mind you. Funny, how many times I've seen the ball hit so hard that it should've been a HR in almost anyother park, turns into a double for a second, but banks of the wall so fast it turns into a single. Then I ask myself why I got outta my seat in the first place. Fenway=unpredictable craziness.
     

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