final piece

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from adam4522. Show adam4522's posts

    final piece

    What do we think of the odds to the following scenarios:
    1) we are done, no SP added
    2) We trade for Garza
    3) We trade for floyd
    4) We trade for Wandy
    5) We sign oswalt
    6) We sign Jackson
    7) We make another less talked about move.

    I hope for anything but 1 or 7...but preferably 2, 3, or 4.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "final piece":
    What do we think of the odds to the following scenarios: 1) we are done, no SP added 2) We trade for Garza 3) We trade for floyd 4) We trade for Wandy 5) We sign oswalt 6) We sign Jackson 7) We make another less talked about move. I hope for anything but 1 or 7...but preferably 2, 3, or 4. Posted by adam4522
    I'm not sure of the odds on all of these scenarios, but I AM sure that there is zero chance of Garza or Rodriguez at this point...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: final piece

    Sign Oswalt, assuming that he would want to do his 1-year market audition in the AL Beast.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: final piece

    Oswalt.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd is most likely, based purely on CBT.  Oswalt would have to further drop his contract demands, and Wandy could happen if the Astros eat the majority of his deal, but it dosen't seem likely that they'll eat enough of it to warrant us picking him up.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: final piece

    I read that Edwin Jackson is now rumored to be willing to settle for a one year deal, after initially seeking a 5 year deal.  With pitchers and catcher reporting dates right around the corner, Oswalt may be willing to come down a couple of million in his asking price.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxnsl. Show maxnsl's posts

    Re: final piece

    floyd
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd would be great, as he would fit in under the tax threshold.  But the White Sox know this.  What would it take to get him?  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Iglesias?  What would you be willing to give up?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "Re: final piece":
    Floyd would be great, as he would fit in under the tax threshold.  But the White Sox know this.  What would it take to get him?  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Iglesias?  What would you be willing to give up? Posted by parhunter1
    That's the problem, Parhunter. I'm not a fan of moving a couple of top prospects for a 4th or 5th starter. If Bard's changeup has developed like we've heard, be may end up being the best 4th starter in baseball. Between Padilla, Cook, Silva, Aceves, Tazawa, Doubront, Miller, etc., you have to think one of these guys can emerge as the 5th starter to start the season. Im all for bringing in another arm, and I like Floyd, but I'd rather save some flexibility for the deadline.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd is my top choice.

    I did want Oswalt, but I would have no problem with Jackson.  

    By the way, isn't it our turn to have Edwin Jackson?  Everyone else has had a shot...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    In response to "Re: final piece": That's the problem, Parhunter. I'm not a fan of moving a couple of top prospects for a 4th or 5th starter. If Bard's changeup has developed like we've heard, be may end up being the best 4th starter in baseball. Between Padilla, Cook, Silva, Aceves, Tazawa, Doubront, Miller, etc., you have to think one of these guys can emerge as the 5th starter to start the season. Im all for bringing in another arm, and I like Floyd, but I'd rather save some flexibility for the deadline.
    Posted by jasko2248

    Floyd is not a 4/5 starter, even though that would be his slot here with the top 3 healthy. 

    Top 150 MLB starters since 2008 by IP (300+):

    WAR: 19th (Rate: mid/lower #1 starter)
    (just below Buehrle, Danks, Johnson & Cain/just above Shields & Carpenter)

    ERA: 71st (Rate: middle/lower 3rd starter)

    WHIP: 39th (Rate: top 2nd starter)

    AL rank: (top 70 starters... 14 teams x 5 starters=70)

    WAR: 11th (Just ahead of Shields & Santana)
    ERA: 30th (Just behind Beckett & Masterson)
    WHIP: 19th (Just behind Lester/Garza/Shields)

    I'm not saying he's better than some of these guys on these lists, but he certainly is not the league average 4/5 starter.

    AL 4th and 5th starters would be rated #42-70, not 11th to 30th. If anything, he's a solid AL 3 slot starter, and one could argue he is more like a solid 2 starter.

    In 2011, he rated (in the AL):
    WAR: 14th out of 70. (Rated the lowest 1 slot starter)
    ERA: 40th (bottom 3 starter)
    WHIP: 15th (best 2 slot starter in AL)


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: final piece

    The only thing about Floyd.

    Over the last 3 years, he is about 1.2 WAR ahead of Jackson.  Jackson can be had for straight cash and no prospects on a 1 year deal at tis point.

    I still prefer Floyd as a pitcher, mostly because I have seen him a lot more often.  But Jackson isn't all that bad, if you don't mind the occasional control issue.  The big issue with Jackson seems to be managers who don't know how to use him...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "Re: final piece":
    In Response to Re: final piece : Floyd is not a 4/5 starter, even though that would be his slot here with the top 3 healthy.  Top 150 MLB starters since 2008 by IP (300+): WAR: 19th (Rate: mid/lower #1 starter) (just below Buehrle, Danks, Johnson & Cain/just above Shields & Carpenter) ERA: 71st (Rate: middle/lower 3rd starter) WHIP: 39th (Rate: top 2nd starter) AL rank: (top 70 starters... 14 teams x 5 starters=70) WAR: 11th (Just ahead of Shields & Santana) ERA: 30th (Just behind Beckett & Masterson) WHIP: 19th (Just behind Lester/Garza/Shields) I'm not saying he's better than some of these guys on these lists, but he certainly is not the league average 4/5 starter. AL 4th and 5th starters would be rated #42-70, not 11th to 30th. If anything, he's a solid AL 3 slot starter, and one could argue he is more like a solid 2 starter. In 2011, he rated (in the AL): WAR: 14th out of 70. (Rated the lowest 1 slot starter) ERA: 40th (bottom 3 starter) WHIP: 15th (best 2 slot starter in AL) Posted by moonslav59
    Moon, I'm well aware of Floyd's resume, I should of made my point a little clearer. You are correct, Floyd is not a 4/5 talent wise, but there is a possibility he could end up as a 5 on this team. I don't see the need to trade at least two of our top prospects for a guy who possibly wouldn't get a playoff start. As the team is constituted right now, we don't NEED a number 2/3 starter. I'd rather save the kids and whatever payroll flexibility is left for a move later on that might be more important.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    The only thing about Floyd. Over the last 3 years, he is about 1.2 WAR ahead of Jackson.  Jackson can be had for straight cash and no prospects on a 1 year deal at tis point. I still prefer Floyd as a pitcher, mostly because I have seen him a lot more often.  But Jackson isn't all that bad, if you don't mind the occasional control issue.  The big issue with Jackson seems to be managers who don't know how to use him...
    Posted by notin

    Floyd's AVV is $3.9M, which may be all we have left.

    Can we sign Jackson for that?  If so, I'm fine with that idea.
    What's the latest on his demands? ($9-10M?)
    On Oswalt's demands? ($5-6M?)

    We might be able to get Oswalt & Floyd for the same money as just Jackson. That would turn our pen into one of the best:
    Bailey
    Bard
    Melancon
    Aceves
    Morales
    Doubront
    Albers
    (Tazawa/Bowden/Atchison/Miller...)


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: final piece

    True, and if Floyd could be had for Middlebrooks and another, I'm all over it.

    But can he?  I heard rumors of talks, but no names...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "Re: final piece":
    Once again it's on Beckett.  If he pitches like one of the best in the game, our pitching staff is probably fine.  I know Lester is going to be solid, but I don't think he will ever be a true ace.  Bucholtz has that high end ability, but you never know what you're going to get from him.  I view signing a starting pitcher as more than simply bringing in a 4/5 starter.  Because one of Beckett/Bucholtz is almost certain to be a let down.  We need someone to be lights out. Posted by mattc355
    Actually, there's probably a better chance that Floyd, Jackson or Oswalt would be more of a let down than Beckett or Buchholz. If these two are healthy (supposedly both are), they have more talent than the other 3 at this point and both have pitched in Boston.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    True, and if Floyd could be had for Middlebrooks and another, I'm all over it. But can he?  I heard rumors of talks, but no names...
    Posted by notin

    What else would you give?

    I'd give Bowden if they want him, since he is out of options and will probably not make the cut. (Atchison as well)

    I'd give Anderson, but they may not value him much.

    If they'd take Albers, we'd save over $.5M (over replacement player).

    Who else can we spare? Tejada? Workman? Hassan? Lin? Exposito?
    I'd give a few of these, but no more top prospects

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "Re: final piece":
    True, and if Floyd could be had for Middlebrooks and another, I'm all over it. But can he?  I heard rumors of talks, but no names... Posted by notin
    I've haven't seen any names either, but based on the supposed asking price for Garza and what Latos and Gonzalez netted (scenarios a little different, I know), I'm guessing at LEAST two top prospects.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: final piece

    In response to "Re: final piece":
    In Response to Re: final piece : What else would you give? I'd give Bowden if they want him, since he is out of options and will probably not make the cut. (Atchison as well) I'd give Anderson, but they may not value him much. If they'd take Albers, we'd save over $.5M (over replacement player). Who else can we spare? Tejada? Workman? Hassan? Lin? Exposito? I'd give a few of these, but no more top prospects Posted by moonslav59
    Moon, you make a great case on how good Floyd is, then propose the Whitesox accept guys with little or no value. At least 2 of Ranaudo, Wilson, Middlebrooks, Vitek, etc...would probably only be a start....
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    In response to "Re: final piece": Moon, I'm well aware of Floyd's resume, I should of made my point a little clearer. You are correct, Floyd is not a 4/5 talent wise, but there is a possibility he could end up as a 5 on this team. I don't see the need to trade at least two of our top prospects for a guy who possibly wouldn't get a playoff start. As the team is constituted right now, we don't NEED a number 2/3 starter. I'd rather save the kids and whatever payroll flexibility is left for a move later on that might be more important.
    Posted by jasko2248

    1) a 4/5 starter can start 30 games over a season: as much or more than the #1-3 guys. He can be just as valuable as Beckett or Lester.

    2) The playoff format does not have as many days off anymore, and I seiously doubt Bard or Aceves will still be starting in October. I see them maybe starting for a while, then being sent to the pen to rest their arms for the playoffs.

    3) Floyd would be our 4th starter not 5, even if Dice-K comes back

    4) I seriously doubt that Beckett, Lester, and Buch will all be healthy all year. It has never happened. Beckett and Lester have only been healthy one time together. 

    5) I do not value Middlebrooks as high as Soxprospects.com or others on this site. I have more confidence in Cecchini and Bogaerts than Middlebrooks.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    In response to "Re: final piece": Moon, you make a great case on how good Floyd is, then propose the Whitesox accept guys with little or no value. At least 2 of Ranaudo, Wilson, Middlebrooks, Vitek, etc...would probably only be a start....
    Posted by jasko2248

    Point well taken, but I look at it this way. The CWS are not up against the tax limit. Floyd's AVV is not an issue with them as it is with us. They are looking at $7M and a $9.5 club option in 2013. I'm thinking they want to shed salary and look to winning 2-3 years down the road.

    You are right, I may be dreaming they want Bowden, Atchison, or Anderson, but you never know how other teams might look at our prospects.

    I'd consider Middlebrooks and Ranaudo, but maybe we could get him for Middlebrooks, Vitek and Pimental (Tejada)?

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd or Jackson would be okay. Jackson's control is a concern. Moon you are far more on top of the stats than I am for sure, and I take your comment regarding Middlebrooks being acceptable to offer rather than Cecchini and Bogaerts. My only conern there is we know Youk will not likely be our 3B next year or soon thereafter, 3B are very hard to find, so we need to be sure we have Youk's replacement ready.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd or Oswalt most likely IMO. Comes down to who RS get cheaper in terms of $ vs. prospects. With Fielder gone Oswalt should find out shortly if any other suitors who lost out on big LH 1b. Within next 2 weeks RS will have another starting pitcher.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: final piece

    problem is many teams can trump Sox offer in a trade. additionally, seems the trading teams realize that the value only keeps going higher thru July. If Theo is looking for major league ready prospects, Sox have nothing to offer for Garza. Same with Danks. Middlebrooks is interesting, but a sure thing? Lavarnway plays in the AL only and w/b currently blocked by Dunn. Sox can offer projectable high ceiling prospects, but that is 2-4 years down the road. Theo has the time, not sure Kenny Williams does.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    problem is many teams can trump Sox offer in a trade. additionally, seems the trading teams realize that the value only keeps going higher thru July. If Theo is looking for major league ready prospects, Sox have nothing to offer for Garza. Same with Danks. Middlebrooks is interesting, but a sure thing? Lavarnway plays in the AL only and w/b currently blocked by Dunn. Sox can offer projectable high ceiling prospects, but that is 2-4 years down the road. Theo has the time, not sure Kenny Williams does.
    Posted by rkarp

    You make some excellent points. I'm not sure of what the White Sox immediate needs are (or for 2013), but Bowden and Atchison could be helpful short and long term, not great, but  pluses. Middlebrooks could help next year. Maybe they'd want Kalish or Anderson, or some of our older prospects like Alex Wilson, Hassan, Hazelbaker, Lin or even Doubront, although I'd like to keep the lefty.

     
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