final piece

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]Floyd or Jackson would be okay. Jackson's control is a concern. Moon you are far more on top of the stats than I am for sure, and I take your comment regarding Middlebrooks being acceptable to offer rather than Cecchini and Bogaerts. My only conern there is we know Youk will not likely be our 3B next year or soon thereafter, 3B are very hard to find, so we need to be sure we have Youk's replacement ready.
    Posted by sindarin-erebor[/QUOTE]

    The Sox will be shedding over $30M in payroll next winter (Papi, Dice-K, Jenks, Ross, and Shopp) and could let Youk walk ($13M), but I see Youk sliding to DH and back-up corner IF'er and Lava sliding into Shoppach's role and part-time DH. That leaves $30M to fill 3B and pitching needs. I'm pretty sure we can do that (assuming Bogaerts or Cecchini aren't ready by 2014 or 2013 if Youk walks). Ross can be replaced with Kalish, Dice-K with Lackey, and Jenks with anybody with a pulse. We are looking fine after this year, in terms of available salary vs needs.

    If we truly want to make a strong push to win this year, stay below the tax limit, and not mortgage the future too much, we need to shed a high-priced salary or two, or make a deal(s) for a low cost (tax limit-wise) impact starting pitcher. There may be other choices than Floyd, but we seem to be the perfect match for him.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: final piece : You make some excellent points. I'm not sure of what the White Sox immediate needs are (or for 2013), but Bowden and Atchison could be helpful short and long term, not great, but  pluses. Middlebrooks could help next year. Maybe they'd want Kalish or Anderson, or some of our older prospects like Alex Wilson, Hassan, Hazelbaker, Lin or even Doubront, although I'd like to keep the lefty.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I am afraid that Floyd has more value than your entire list combined! (indictment on RS major league ready talent) 
    Seriously, I would assume that most teams would like to see at least another 250 PA's from Middlebrooks before deciding his potential worth. Pretty safe to assume the RS would as well as they will need to make a big $$ decision on Youk shortly.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: final piece : I am afraid that Floyd has more value than your entire list combined! (indictment on RS major league ready talent)  Seriously, I would assume that most teams would like to see at least another 250 PA's from Middlebrooks before deciding his potential worth. Pretty safe to assume the RS would as well as they will need to make a big $$ decision on Youk shortly.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    Maybe I'm reading too much into the CWS desire to shed salary ($7M in 2012/$9M club option in 2013). They are looking to dump salary, but Floyd at $7M is not a "dump" to the teams getting him as say Lowell was in the Beckett deal. Almost any contender would take Floyd at $7M. 

    I'm not sure we could get him with these offers, and I'm not sure I'd do it, but i think this might be close:

    Middlebrooks, Ranaudo and Bowden/Atchison
    or
    Middlebrooks, Doubront and Bowden/Atchison

    I'd hope for ...
    Middlebrooks, Wilson, Anderson, Bowden, and Atchison

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom. Show proftom's posts

    Re: final piece

    I am not sure what to think. Ben's still very new at his job and I can't figure out his logic yet. The few years with Theo was pretty simple, big names, big bucks, low results. 

    Ben seems to be small name, hard workers, low bucks, but I don't know the results ret.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: final piece

    All this talk about Floyd...why even consider him and the likelihood of giving up ANY top prospects when Jackson or Oswalt can be brought in without giving up nothing.

    If Jackson is willing to take a one-year deal to get back into the market in 2013, then if the price is right bring him in and they still have Renauldo, Middlebrooks, Vitek, etc. etc. etc. in their system in the event a top starter becomes available.

    Be smart Ben...don't give up the corn on your farm when there is a cornstand down the road.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    All this talk about Floyd...why even consider him and the likelihood of giving up ANY top prospects when Jackson or Oswalt can be brought in without giving up nothing.

    Because Floyd would only cost $3.9M towardss the luxury tax, and we may only have about $4M to spend. Oswalt and Jackson will cost more.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: final piece

    Magic 8 Ball!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: final piece

    Roy can hit too - when Red Sox get to World Series...just thinking...
    Contributing with his bat as well as his arm, pitcher Roy Oswalt singles for the Phillies to starta seventh-inning rally in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series. The Phillies prevailed, 6-1, at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday night to tie the series at one game apiece. Oswalt baffled the Giants over eight innings, yielding three hits and one run while striking out nine. He also scored a run as the Phillies broke it open with a four-run seventh. Coverage in Sports, Section E.

    This was a game winning single using Chase Utleys bat...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]All this talk about Floyd...why even consider him and the likelihood of giving up ANY top prospects when Jackson or Oswalt can be brought in without giving up nothing. Because Floyd would only cost $3.9M towardss the luxury tax, and we may only have about $4M to spend. Oswalt and Jackson will cost more.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Problem is the cost is not restricted to his salary of $3.9 million for 2012, it also includes the cost of weakening the farm system and the potential of the guy being gone in 2013.

    Penny wise, dollar foolish, if you ask me..just pay a little more for Oswalt or Jackson for one year and maybe Floyd can be acquired as a free agent next year without giving up anything but cash.



     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from adam4522. Show adam4522's posts

    Re: final piece

    Just remember that a little cash can magnify real quick if you are not careful.  As many people better informed have stated in other threads, not only is it the difference in salary(eg. 6.0m instead of 3.9m), but also the luxury tax on that 2.1m difference, the lack of resetting the luxury tax rate that occurs once you are under the threashold for even 1 year, all future tax money at the escalating luxury tax rate, and the new revenue sharing savings for being under the tax for 1-3 years.  That little 2.1 million difference could cost tens of millions of dollars, in extreme devil's advocate thinking, even hundreds of millions.  A couple of unproven prospects are not worth 40-100m when viewed in that contex.  Sometimes a little money is just that, a little money.  Sometimes it is the tip of the proverbial money iceberg.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    Problem is the cost is not restricted to his salary of $3.9 million for 2012, it also includes the cost of weakening the farm system and the potential of the guy being gone in 2013.

    Penny wise, dollar foolish, if you ask me..just pay a little more for Oswalt or Jackson for one year and maybe Floyd can be acquired as a free agent next year without giving up anything but cash.

    Floyd is better than Oswalt.
    Floys id more reliable than  Oswalt.
    Floyd is about equal to Jackson.

    Going over the tax limit will raise the tax limit and lessen the revenue sharing by enough to severely limit what we can do over the next few years.


     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: final piece

    I would agree that Floyd is more reliable than Oswalt, but not about being better.  If Oswalt is healthy and stays that way (bi, ifs, I know) he has the biggest potential for next season of the three pitchers we are considering here, IMO.  Possibly an ERA under 3.00 and 16 - 18 wins.  He could make the rotation stellar, if Bard comes through and Buchholz and Beckett stay healthy.  It could end up being the best starting rotation in all of baseball.

    Now, it isn't all that likely that all my ifs turn out good.  But, Jackson and Floyd, even if they pitch 190 innings or so, will not (again, In My Opinion) be much better than 3.60 - 4.25 in ERA and 14 - 15 game winners (probably more like 12 - 13).  Makes the rotation decent, but not much better than you might hope for by letting Doubront, Tazawa, and the three new guys fight it out for starts until Dice-K returns.  I could see getting 14 - 15 wins out of all those guys and Dice-K.

    So, I would still prefer Oswalt at 7 or 8 million over Jackson (who is asking for more) or Floyd (who will cost more in terms of future results and future flexibility).  His upside is the greatest.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: final piece : What else would you give? I'd give Bowden if they want him, since he is out of options and will probably not make the cut. (Atchison as well) I'd give Anderson, but they may not value him much. If they'd take Albers, we'd save over $.5M (over replacement player). Who else can we spare? Tejada? Workman? Hassan? Lin? Exposito? I'd give a few of these, but no more top prospects
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    When you are trying to get a good player, the question shu;dn't be "what else can we spare?"  Spare parts get you Jason Marquis.  The question needs to be "what can we live without?"

    I could live without Middlebrooks and Brentz.  That seems like a lot, but I am probably overvaluing the Sox prospects, somewhat, too. Actually, I'm not high on Middlebrooks at all, and Brentz might have potential, but there are things not to like about him, too.

     And I figure throwing in Bowden at least creates a much-needed spot on the 40-man...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    ...the question shoudn't be "what else can we spare?"  ... The question needs to be "what can we live without?" 

    I see these as essentially the same question.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]...the question shoudn't be "what else can we spare?"  ... The question needs to be "what can we live without?"  I see these as essentially the same question.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    OK, maybe they are.  But they soundedbetter in my head.  Point being, to get Floyd you have to give up more than simple spare parts.  At least the Marquis comment was less ambiguous...
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    Fair enough...

    I'd be Ok with Middlebrooks, Brentz, Anderson and Bowden.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: final piece

    Am I the only person who thinks Gavin Floyd could be the Sox #1 starter this year?

    Floyd's numbers versus: Red Sox, Yankees, Ray, Tigers, Angels, Rangers in 2011

    W L ERA INN H ER BB K WHIP
    7 5 4.63 75 68 35 17 60 1.13
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    Floyd is a lot better than many people want to believe.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Skadude22. Show Skadude22's posts

    Re: final piece

    I read somewhere that Floyd shouldn't take one of the Sox top prospects, but may take a few prospects, at least one of which has a high ceiling. 

    Furthermore, as a number 4 starter, Floyd would be great. I don't think he's an ace though, and as such, I wouldn't trade as much for Floyd as I would for an ace.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]I read somewhere that Floyd shouldn't take one of the Sox top prospects, but may take a few prospects, at least one of which has a high ceiling.  Furthermore, as a number 4 starter, Floyd would be great. I don't think he's an ace though, and as such, I wouldn't trade as much for Floyd as I would for an ace.
    Posted by Skadude22[/QUOTE]

    No, he's not an "ace" in my mind, but he does have some numbers that place him in the top 14 AL starters the past 4 years, which in theory, makes him an 1 slot pitcher. I think of him more as a decent #2 slot-type pitcher or a top #3 slot guy. Having him as a 4 slot greatly improves our staff in many ways:
    1) Lessens the chances we will need to rely on Silva, Cook, Padilla, Miller or others to eat major innings this year.
    2) Allows bard or Aceves to stay in the pen: a pen without Paps.
    3) If one of the "project starters" do well enough to start, we can have both bard and Aceves in the pen.
    4) His $3.9M tax limit cost fits us better than Oswalt or Jackson and allows us to maybe stay under the limit and avoid future financial penalties.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: final piece

    If Sox are unsuccessful in getting Oswalt or Jackson I would look again at Gavin Floyd and Wandy Rodriguez.

    Yes this will take them into the Luxury Tax area however you then have the luxury of keeping  both Aceves and Bard in the pen.

    I could see the Sox going for a mini blockbuster with the White Sox who will not be going anyplace in the Central now with Prince in the Central and the improvement of the Royals and the Indians :

    Floyd, Ramirez, Thornton, Lilibridge and $15 M in exchange for Doubrount, Iggy, Brandon Jacobs, Bowden and Melancon.

    Then make the trade for Wandy which should not take many prospects unless the Astros are willing to eat a lot of money. Perhaps Ceccini and Britton would do it to shave off $6 M year one.
     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]I read somewhere that Floyd shouldn't take one of the Sox top prospects, but may take a few prospects, at least one of which has a high ceiling.  Furthermore, as a number 4 starter, Floyd would be great. I don't think he's an ace though, and as such, I wouldn't trade as much for Floyd as I would for an ace.
    Posted by Skadude22[/QUOTE]
    A good high ceiling prospect would be Oscar Tejada. With Pedroia at 2nd and Sean Coyle in the minors, there is not a ton of need for him
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: final piece

    In Response to Re: final piece:
    [QUOTE]Floyd, Ramirez, Thornton, Lilibridge and $15 M in exchange for Doubrount, Iggy, Brandon Jacobs, Bowden and Melancon.
    Posted by MadMc44[/QUOTE]
    How's come the Red Sox get all the good players and $15 million while the White Sox get the undesirable (or less desirable) players?

    Gavin Floyd (3.6), Alexi Ramirez (4.9), Matt Thorton (1.6) and Brent Lillibridge (1.3) combined for 11.4 WAR* last season. Felix Doubront contributed a negative 0.1 WAR, Michael Bowden 0.0 WAR, Mark Melancon 0.8 WAR and Jose Iglesias negative 0.2 WAR while Brandon Jacobs was lighting it up at Single A.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: final piece

    As long as they pick somebody up besides these other team throways they have been picking up. Cherrington must have been read the riot act prior to being given thia job.
     

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