Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    m
     
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    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    In Response to Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.:
    All right handed hitters come through the minors hitting against both left and right handed pitchers. Left handed hitters are usually at a disadvantage when facing lefty pitching, because they just didn't see them much over the year. Of course, there are many exceptions. The AL batting champ and the NL runner up are both right handed hitters.
    Posted by GhostofTito
    There are RH hitters who don't hit RH as well but rake versus LH.

    Your premise that it is harder for a guy to make it to MLB if he can't hit RH pitching well is valid but it isn't that black and white. Francouer is a high profile example of a guy who is so-so versus RH but rakes versus LH.

    History shows that platoons can work. Earl Weaver, Casey Stengell and John McGraw all leveraged platoons aggressively.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    By balance, I meant lefthanded to right handed balance, especially in the heart of the batting order.
    Duh!

    Duh? Did you forget Manny  and Bay? Bay did it in 2009
    You act like you know it all, but you don't know jack.

    I'll stack up our 1-5 hitters vs LHPs vs almost every other team. Balance what they do vs RHPs and we probably have the most balanced 1-5 hitters in MLB. Last I checked, 3-5 was "the heart" of an order.

    Tell us this big slugging RF'er we can get for 2012...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from GhostofTito. Show GhostofTito's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    Carlos Quentin. Kills left handed pitching, and would have a ball in Fenway.
    Only 29 years old.
    Oh, and Mr. Blowhard, I didn't know Bay and Manny were still on the team.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    That's the first thing I have believed coming from you. Thanks for being honest.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    By balance, I meant lefthanded to right handed balance, especially in the heart of the batting order.
    Duh!

    We have nice "balance" from 1 to 5, but drop off at 6. However, our 6-9 is still better than the vast majority of other MLB teams.

    Compare the balance (heart in red):
          (OPS vs RHPs/OPS vs LHPs)

    Boston:
    1) L  Ells  (.965 / .841)
    2) R Ped  (.800 / 1.010)
    3) L Gon (1.046 / .787)
    4) R Youk (.764 / .987)
    5) L Papi  (.934 / .989)

    Texas:
    1) Kinsler    (.815 / .880)
    2) Andrus    (.706 / .714)
    3) Hamilton (.904 / .825)
    4) Young     (.838 / .902)
    5) Beltre      (.836 / 1.075)
    6) Cruz        (.747 / 1.096 and.692 in the 6 slot)

    Detroit:
    1) Jackson  (.672/.732 )
    2) Mix of 9 players with 45 to 142 PAs (.742 overall OPS)
    3) Mix of 3 players led by Magglio (.581/.716), Delmon (.685/.959), Brennan (.814/.752 )
    4) Cabrera  (1.047 / .990)
    5) VMart     (.862 / .823)
    6) Mix of many led by Peralta ( .848/ .765) and Avila (.939/ .779) 

    Your point was?
     
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    A laughorama is your idiocy of signing Timmy T-Ball as #5 starter.

    So, lets have the details on the FA contract you want offered to Timmy T-ball.


    He’s truly a lyrical genius that Hank Williams Jr.

    What an artist that guy is!

    How does he do it?

    He is a wealthy man who isn't a ward of the State, like you are. Obama's corpseman are busy working in all 59 United States to redistribute skin from the game.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    I wouldn't offer Wake a deal until I see who we have on the staff. As I have outlined countless times, my top priority is starting pitching. There are so many better options to Wake out there, but they are not easy to get.

    Realistically, we won't get more than one good starter, and will need to find several cheap guys to be our 5/6/7 starters. That's where Wake comes into play.

    Assuming we get one good pitcher, say ... Guthrie from Baltimore, I'd go aftera  guy like Wang or Webb, and a guy like Wake for $1M to $1.5M and incentive that could bring him to $3M max.

    I've gone over this several times. Maybe I should put it in bigger letters for the reading challenged.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    When you have so many slots to fill, chances are we will fill some with our kids.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

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    In Response to Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.:
    Here are the final Sox positional numbers (these are baseball reference numbers which are slightly different from fangraphs): C:   .229  29   96 (.737 OPS, 10th in MLB & close to 5th place.) 1B: .329  28 118 (.944 OPS, 4th in MLB & close to 3rd place.) 2B: .308  21   93 (.862 OPS, 1st in MLB.) 3B: .270  20  102 (.812 OPS, 3rd in MLB.) SS: .279  10    76 (.730 OPS, 7th in MLB) LF:  .258  16   75 (.723 OPS, 18th in MLB -behind TB!) CF: .316  34  112 (.925 OPS, 2nd in MLB.)  RF: .233  14    58 (.652 OPS, 28th in MLB) DH: .308  29  102 (.925 OPS, 1st in MLB) With Drew gone, Papi and V'Tek Free Agents, and Scutty an option, there are some big decisions to make. RF was clearly our beiggest weakness with LF close behind. Papi leaving will make DH a big question mark. Scutty leaving may change the results from that slot as well. The big offesnive question looking towards 2012 is Papi, followed closely by Youk's health/bounce back ability and our RF outlook. If Papi walks, it could be possible to lose .150 in OPS at DH, but gain .150 in RF to break even. If Youk becomes our DH or partial DH, how much will we lose in offense at the 3B slot with Aviles and Lowrie getting serious time there? How much help can Lavarnway give us at the DH or Catcher slots? Can we expect much from Reddick, Kalish, Middlebrooks, or Iglesias next year? The bigger question might be: if we spend to address all of these slots, will our pitching suffer? Afterall, we do look to need 2 starters and at least 2-3 relief guys, especially if Papelbon walks.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Can you ever do an analysis without using OPS - that stat can be very misleading....Further, there is also defense, and speed, and baserunning, and instints, and playing hard, and durability, and ability to get the clutch hit, and being a leader, etc etc etc not to mention putting pieces together that FIT vs collecting random parts.....
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    Can you ever do an analysis without using OPS - that stat can be very misleading....

    1) I was responding to a posy about offensive balance in the heart of the top team's batting orders.
    2)
    OPS is better than OBP alone or Slg% alone. I know there is more to baseball and offense than OPS, but to me it reflects a lot about a player's value.

    Further, there is also defense, and speed, and baserunning, and instints, and playing hard, and durability, and ability to get the clutch hit, and being a leader, etc etc etc not to mention putting pieces together that FIT vs collecting random parts.....

    I am a huge fan of fielding, as witnessed by my position of playing Iggy at SS even if he hits .200 (assuming he is a top 3 MLb fielding SS).

    My favorite player as a kid was Tommy Harper. I love baserunning, and that was one of the strongest areas of my game as a player. I value baserunning, but also devalue player's value when CS or thrown out needlessly a lot.

    Clutch hitting is important, but historically is not something most players can consistently keep up. Over time, most revert to their career norm.

    I know i use numbers a lot, but I also recognize the importance of intangibles... and there are many intangibles.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

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    How is someone supposed to predict clutch hitting? It either happens or it doesn't, by a player with or without a history of hitting in the clutch, or succeeding in the clutch or not.

    Furthermore, Clutch hitting wasn't this team's downfall. Next to zero Clutch pitching did attribute to it though.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

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    m
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    In Response to Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.:
    How is someone supposed to predict clutch hitting? It either happens or it doesn't, by a player with or without a history of hitting in the clutch, or succeeding in the clutch or not. 

    Yes indeed. It's largely a myth. Players and team rarely have prolonged periods of great "clutch hitting". Let's take Papi for instance. Nothing against Papi. He is the Sox biggest hero, perhaps of alltime. He had an amazing stretch of clutch hitting. It seemed like everyday he had a walk off hit in a big game. Please don't take this as me bashing Papi. I am not. I want him back next year and 2013 as well. He went "mental" in 2004 and in 2007 to a lesser extent, but take a look at his numbers:

    Reg season based on 675 PAs:
    .283  35  118  with 43 2B/3Bs (.378/.544/.922)
    Playoffs:
    .283  27  106  with 50 2B/3Bs (.388/.520/.908)

    He pretty much came back to the norm.
    (Sidenote: in the playoffs, in theory,  he faced better pitching)

    Regular season in "Late & Close" situations (PA in the 7th or after with the team ties, down by one, ahead by one, of at least the tying run on deck).

    .265  34 121  with 44 2B/3Bs (.375/.524/.899) 

    Remember the year Tejada seemingly had 20 game winning hits for Oakland? How about the stretch Tulo had a while back?

    Tejada had an .859 OPS Late & Close in 2002 (his MVP year). His overall OPS was .861. (His career late & close OPS: .795)

    How about Manny?
    Career Reg season: .996
    Career Playoffs:        .937
    Career Late and Close: .894 (reg season)

    I'm sure there are some players with large sample sizes who perform well "in the clutch" or significantly better than in "non-clutch" times, but they are rare and not "predictable".

    I always thought Eddie Murray was the most clutch hitter I ever saw. He seemed to be the master of the 8th inning 3 run job to win it for the O's. He had 5 seasons with an OPS between .900 and .940 and a career .836 OPS.  Playoffs: .825.  His career OPS late and close was .865.


    Furthermore, Clutch hitting wasn't this team's downfall. Next to zero Clutch pitching did attribute to it though.

    We certainly could have used a few more timely hits in September, but I agree. Our pitching went down fast and hard.
    Posted by emp9


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    a guy like Wake for $1M to $1.5M and incentive that could bring him to $3M max.

    Timmy T-Ball cost 3.75M for crap in 2011. A guy like Wake isn't worth 1M MLB contract. If the Red Sox farm is so pitiful as not to be able to replace Wastefield, perhaps a few years without InEpstein will change that.

    What a great day when Wakefield welfare contracts come to an end. I doubt Luchino is ready to give Wakefield a roster spot and 1M. We'll see. 

    Moonslow, you deserve the chance to see Wakefield kicked to the curb, where perhaps he can win 7 more games that he thinks you deserve the right to see. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    How did AAA help us this year clown?

    Miller?
    Weiland?

    You keep thinking and saying young and better pitchers are everywhere. If that's the case, why were there at least 50 pitchers with equal or worse numbers than Wake last year starting for MLB teams a significant amount of time? 50! That's nearly 2 per team. Many of which cost more than Wake... some way way more!

    Ever heard of relativity or did you miss the short bus that day of school?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    If the Red Sox farm is so pitiful as not to be able to replace Wastefield, perhaps a few years without InEpstein will change that.

    Hey clown, the point is we don't have anyone ready now no matter whose fault it is/was, hence the need for guys like Wake, Webb, Wang...
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    Miller ERA on road was quite decent, idiot!

    Wake is your crack. He has been a 7.25 million pile of crap for 2 years, and is fatter and older.

    Beg with Timmy T-Ball and see if you can convince Red Sox to smoke some crack with you.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    Oh, now it's down to "road" ERA to find a stat Miller is better at. 

    You tried WHIP (then said you don't like the stat).
    You tried BB/9 (until schooled that Wake's leads all Sox starters '10-'11)
    You tried CS% vs pitcher (funny, how you use this stat but pooh pooh CERA)
    You tried ERA (until Miller's dropped like a stone).
    You tried ERA since mid 2009 (then schooled on Miller's horrific timeframe)
    You tried age, weight, eye color...

    Wheel your goalpost down that North Carolina road a little father; I think there's a hill ahead.

    Oh yeah, and those road starter numbers... (IP  H+BB  ER)
    @ Pitt      6   7  1
    @ Hou     6   9  2
    @ TB    2.2 10  7
    @ Bal   5.2   8   0
    @ CWS 5.2 11  1 
    @ KC     5.1  5   1
    @ TX     6.1   5  0
    @ Tor    5    10  5 

    Total: 42.2  65  17
    WHIP  1.52
    ERA     3.58
    Some great offensive teams he faced other than the one game : Texas.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    Some great offensive teams he faced other than the one game :

    Excuses. Wakefield is toast!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    Your road ERA point was an "excuse".

    You are toast and now your new persona is on iggy.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    C:   .229  29   96  (.737 OPS) 
       Hard to boost without spending big or letting Lava give it a go.
    1B: .329  28 118  (.944 OPS)
       Could see an increase with a wire to wire season by AGon.
    2B: .308  21   93  (.862 OPS)
       Could see better, but .862 is pretty darn good.
    3B: .270  20  102 (.812 OPS)
       Youk and health. Hard to predict better health.
    SS: .279  10    76 (.730 OPS)
       I doubt we do much better. I hope we don't go after Reyes.
    LF:  .258  16   75 (.723 OPS)
       Perhaps our biggest chance for improvement without further purchases.
    CF: .316  34  112 (.925 OPS)
       Hard to imagine more from Ells, but ...
    RF: .233  14    58 (.652 OPS)
       The best chance to improve, and perhaps for not much cash.
    DH: .308  29  102 (.925 OPS)
       Perhaps the highest chance of decline with or without Papi.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

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    In Response to Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.:
    In Response to Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs. :
    Posted by moonslav59


    Ortiz has been the King of Clutch for Boston over the years. One of the best in baseball overall. He's still not above hitting into a rally killing double play.

    I hate to say it, (actually I don't. I hate his batting stance and I always thought he showboated in the field) but how about Jeter over the years? Again, doesn't have it EVERY year but...

    ANd obviously the guy that gets the winning hit is remembered. To me, simply not being an out in a dire situation is clutch. I guess OBP is a good place to start, but what else is new?  Before this year, I always thought a good OBP, good SLG% and if they ate Popeye's that day was a good indicator. Ya' know, if one could predict such things.  ;)
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.

    Remember how Boggs had his daily routines? One was fried chicken; I believe.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

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    In Response to Re: Final Sox Season Positional Numbers and Our 2012 Needs.:
    Remember how Boggs had his daily routines? One was fried chicken; I believe.
    Posted by moonslav59

     not FRIED, just chicken

    and another good measure of potential "clutch" is consistency which of course, averages do not measure....
     
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