In response to snakeoil123's comment:

My problem w/ Kotchman and Jones is this:

3 - Pedroia

4 - Ortiz

5 - Middlebrooks

Pedroia is low on power for a #3 hitter.  Middlebrooks has a long swing and could use more experience w/ high level pitch recognition (he really hasnt had that many AAA/Major League at-bats).  

 

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In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

First of all, lets be fair.  A healthy Napoli (at first base) does not project to 109 games.  That is a number that you made up.  

Napoli averaged 119 games / yr over the last four, as a catcher.  Every manager rests his catcher 1 out of every six games (at least).  1/6 of the season is 27 games.  A catcher loses about 27 games/yr just for being a catcher.  Lets be fair.  Over the last two years, Napoli has been a DH when not catching , so lets slice this number in half.  We'll say that he has lost an average of 13 games played / yr over the last four years just for being a catcher.

119+13 = 132.  Thats a good baseline for a healthy Napoli.  A very JD Drewish number.

Over the last four years, Napoli has hit 100 homeruns (exactly) over 475 games played.  That computes to 1 HR in 21% of his games played.

132 *21% = 28 HR.   Now lets say that Gomez (who I like as a back up) fills in for the remaining 30 games.  Due to Gomez's minor league slugging %, its not unreasonable to project him as a 20 HR/ yr guy.  20 / 162 = a homerun in 12.35% of his games played.  30 * 12.35% = an additional 3-4 homeruns.

And there we have it.  30 HR from the firstbase position using fair estimates, projections, and actual player averages.  Also: we didnt factor in the fact that a lot of Napoli's games played were partial games played due to coming off the bench (which he frequently did) and defensive substitutions (which were made).  We also didnt account for the fact that these numbers are based on Napoli as a catcher.  As a firstbaseman , there will be less wear and tear on his body allowing him to potentially increase his HR/game rates.

Burrito, your durability concerns are very valid.  However, durability and power are two completely different things.  He may not be durable; however, he has a HR in 6.6% of his at-bats.  This is the highest ding rate ever for a catcher.  Better than Piazza and Pudge.

His career slg% is over .500.  His power is for real, and we need it (even if we only get 132 games of it).  If Napoli has a real / untreatable injury , then of course we should pursue other options.  However, based on what I read, it appears that there are warning signs of an injury down the road and not an already existing real / untreatable injury.

If this is true (and neither of us know for sure) than the correct way to handle this is to build injury protection into the contract.  If my speculation is incorrect and its an already existing injury (or even if the the sox deem the risk of injury too high to pursue) thats okay.  But I'm not comfortable with Kotchman as the replacement.  We are not trying to replace Napoli's ability to cover first base.  We are trying to replace the 28 HR / 132 games played power.

Trading for Butler, Upton, or both :) , intrigues me.  Because these guys have 30 HR / yr power.  However, I would need to know the cost of acquistion (prospect wise) for both.  Trading for Morse also intriuges me, however, I would need to know the status of his health (he has an injury history himself), if he can be extended (he is a FA after this year), and (of course) the cost of acquisition (prospect wise).

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

In the way of what exactly?  Lavarnaway because there was a job for Lava, he just didnt seize it.  Travis Shaw?

Papi has not been in the way of anything.  Maybe he was in the way of us falling out of playoff conention in July, but thats about it.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

I know. It's like softy claiming Wake was holding back all these great young farm arms in our systaem all those years.

If anyone here really believes that a MLB GM doesnt have a plan B C AND D, that person knows a lot less than he actually believes he does.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

Exactly, Southpaw, and my guess is Mauro Gomez is the starting 1st baseman around plan Z.

In response to jasko2248's comment:

Gomez is probably their RH fallback plan with LH guys like Kotchman, Overbay, Abreu and some possible low profile trades as well...To say he doesnt have a plan has got to be one of the dumbest things ive read here.

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

Another  B I N G O !!!!

20.8 homers per year... we need his power? Really? If healthy? 109 games a year is healthy?  

 

If Napoli only hits 20.8 homers a year why do we have to replace him with "30 homers" ? You have zero logic in your post.

 

First of all, lets be fair.  A healthy Napoli (at first base) does not project to 109 games.  That is a number that you made up.  

 

Napoli averaged 119 games / yr over the last four, as a catcher.  Every manager rests his catcher 1 out of every six games (at least).  1/6 of the season is 27 games.  A catcher loses about 27 games/yr just for being a catcher.  Lets be fair.  Over the last two years, Napoli has been a DH when not catching , so lets slice this number in half.  We'll say that he has lost an average of 13 games played / yr over the last four years just for being a catcher.

119+13 = 132.  Thats a good baseline for a healthy Napoli.  A very JD Drewish number.

You are assuming we were Ok with Drew's number.

Also, Naps was not a FT catcher the last 4 years averaging 119 gms.

GS'd at...

2009: C 84/ 1B 16

2010: C 66/ 1B 70

2011: C 61/ 1B 35/ DH 19

2012: C 72/ 1B 28/ DH 9

Over the last 3 years combined, Naps has started games at these positions:

C: 199 (About 66 per year)

1B: 133 (About 44 per year)

DH: 28 (About 9 per year)

I find it hard to believe that catching less than 40% of the games in a season is why he missed so much time. I see no reason to think he will play more than 119 games in 2013, after flunking a physical due to a bum hip.

Over the last four years, Napoli has hit 100 homeruns (exactly) over 475 games played.  That computes to 1 HR in 21% of his games played.

132 *21% = 28 HR.   Now lets say that Gomez (who I like as a back up) fills in for the remaining 30 games.  Due to Gomez's minor league slugging %, its not unreasonable to project him as a 20 HR/ yr guy.  20 / 162 = a homerun in 12.35% of his games played.  30 * 12.35% = an additional 3-4 homeruns.

I agree here, and being in Fenway may increase those projections, and his sub will hit a few HRs when Naps is sitting, so one could easily expect 22-30 HRs from 1B if Naps played 120 games.

And there we have it.  30 HR from the firstbase position using fair estimates, projections, and actual player averages.  Also: we didnt factor in the fact that a lot of Napoli's games played were partial games played due to coming off the bench (which he frequently did) and defensive substitutions (which were made).  We also didnt account for the fact that these numbers are based on Napoli as a catcher.  As a firstbaseman , there will be less wear and tear on his body allowing him to potentially increase his HR/game rates.

Burrito, your durability concerns are very valid.  However, durability and power are two completely different things.  He may not be durable; however, he has a HR in 6.6% of his at-bats.  This is the highest ding rate ever for a catcher.  Better than Piazza and Pudge.

But, will those numbers remain high with a bum hip? The hip is a very improtant part of hitting.

His career slg% is over .500.  His power is for real, and we need it (even if we only get 132 games of it).  If Napoli has a real / untreatable injury , then of course we should pursue other options.  However, based on what I read, it appears that there are warning signs of an injury down the road and not an already existing real / untreatable injury.

If this is true (and neither of us know for sure) than the correct way to handle this is to build injury protection into the contract.  If my speculation is incorrect and its an already existing injury (or even if the the sox deem the risk of injury too high to pursue) thats okay.  But I'm not comfortable with Kotchman as the replacement.  We are not trying to replace Napoli's ability to cover first base.  We are trying to replace the 28 HR / 132 games played power.

This is why I have said that a 1 year deal may be even worse than a 2-3 year deal. He may be healed by 2014, but stink up the place in 2013. We need to just say "no", unless the doctors think he will not be effected by the bum hip in 2013. (I doubt that is true.)

Trading for Butler, Upton, or both :) , intrigues me.  Because these guys have 30 HR / yr power.  However, I would need to know the cost of acquistion (prospect wise) for both.  Trading for Morse also intriuges me, however, I would need to know the status of his health (he has an injury history himself), if he can be extended (he is a FA after this year), and (of course) the cost of acquisition (prospect wise).

Yes, the prospect cost must be weighed against their relatively low financial cost as compared to FAs of their skill level and age.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

Okay, and Ben Cherington is sitting here in Mid January without a first baseman.

In response to ADG's comment:

There is still time, but any move seems to be costly and/or risky at this point.

In response to ADG's comment:

Farrell will probably just start Gomez at 1st in their opener this afternoon...

Gomez is probably their RH fallback plan with LH guys like Kotchman, Overbay, Abreu and some possible low profile trades as well...To say he doesnt have a plan has got to be one of the dumbest things ive read here.

 

and this comforts you? how did you like the closer/starter ben "plan" last spring training? it is safe to say that Cheringtons plan B option for those two key pitching roles cost us dearly last season.....

which is why i wanted ben to sign a few key players/stars..to limit the damage of his personel moves which have been terrible....even if grienke bit the big one, it would have prevented ben from playing with that money and ruining three other positions with his dumpster diving....seriously Grienke or Victorino & Napoli? Sanchez or Gomes/Ross/etc...?

In response to ADG's comment:

True, but there are still many options out there. Just because he hasnt finalized the 1b position doesnt mean he doesnt have a plan or a backup plan(s).

In response to georom4's comment:

Greinke...was...never...an...option!  How ignorant ARE you?!  

In response to georom4's comment:

Of course we would all like a better option at 1b, but it all depends on whats available. There wasnt much this year. That has nothing to do with BC or any other GM. BC wasnt going to sign "stars" for long term deals and big money. hes said this from the get go but guys like you keep going on about it because they didnt do just that.

Grienke wasnt going to happen and he and sanchez didnt want to come here anyway. Signing Grienke wouldve been the single most dumbest idea. Right up there with Crawford.

Moon, if Napoli can play 120 games while maintaining the ding rate pace he has set over the last four years, he is worht 13M / yr.

The ding rate is 1 homerun in 21% of games played.  120 * 21% = 25 HR.  Mauro Gomez plays the other 42 games.  In 42 games, Mauro should be able to add a couple of dingers bringing us up to near 30 for the position.

Its certainly not ideal; however, if we do not get ~30 HR from first base than we simply do not have enough power to compete.  Of course there are other options (trading for Upton, trading for Morse, trading for Butler); however, Im starting to believe that Ben hates trading prospects.  

Yes, we are overpaying.  However, unless Ben parts w prospects (doubt it), the options are either a) overpay Napoli or b) not have enough power to compete.

2 yrs $ 12.5 per.  If Naps misses 30 games or more with a hip injury in the first year, teh second year is voided.

Done.

Or 1 @14.  Done.  (If Im Naps, I take this because it gives me a chance to rebuild my value a al Beltre).

If Ben isnt going to make a trade, Napooli is still the best option.  Unless of course the hip is completely shot, which I dont think is the case.  If it is, BITE THE BULLET AND PART WITH YOUR PROSPECTS!!!

 

In response to southpaw777's comment:

My guess is he signs Overbay or Huff, either one would do but we lose a RH bat. I think Gomez will hit well but he looks like a butcher at 1B.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

Why should we part with any prospects when this year is a rebuilding year, one in which we are very unlikely to field a competitive team? Its a year when they ought to be holding on to all their prospects unless they can get a steal for a top notch player who can help the team for many years in return. If Napoli cannot go, then Gomez should be the starting 1B; that is what I call biting the bullet.

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

They are not viewing 2013 as a rebuilding year.  We signed Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew and Dempster.  Tried to sign Napoli.  The indication is that we are trying to compete.

This is our last year w Ells and Ortiz isnt getting any younger.  The prospects are mostly not elite.  Only Boegarts is a top 30 propsect , and he hasnt even grown into his frame yet.

2013 is a year where we should be competing.

http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/91-100

This was the first prospect ranking I stumbled across.  It has 3 Red Sox in the top 100, 1 being 88 (Bradley).

I dont lump all prospects into one category.  I view each and every one of them as individuals. Most of them are tradable.  Boegarts - I would be very hesitant to trade.  Barnes - would have to be a good return.  Bradley - Would have to be a decent return.

However, I would have no qualms with trading Brentz, Webster, Owens to help our club in 2013.  Everything that could have went wrong last year did and we were in contention in August.

There is no need to punt 2013.  Which means we should be going all out to find a first baseman.

In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

While it's certainly debatable whether or not the Sox will be competitive, Mauro Gomez will not be the starting 1st baseman on opening day.  The Napoli deal will get done and there will be a big happy press conference in the next week or so.  The Sox were never going to "take a year off."  It's just not reality.

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Ortiz is strictly for a few games and anything longer, the law of diminishing return, quickly settles in.  We saw what happen last season when he hustled for the first time around the bases.  Besides, my money says he comes into spring training, in need of some serious conditioning.