Re: First Base Situation - What about Ortiz / Gomez / Kotchman
posted at 1/16/2013 8:55 AM EST
20.8 homers per year... we need his power? Really? If healthy? 109 games a year is healthy?
If Napoli only hits 20.8 homers a year why do we have to replace him with "30 homers" ? You have zero logic in your post.
First of all, lets be fair. A healthy Napoli (at first base) does not project to 109 games. That is a number that you made up.
Napoli averaged 119 games / yr over the last four, as a catcher. Every manager rests his catcher 1 out of every six games (at least). 1/6 of the season is 27 games. A catcher loses about 27 games/yr just for being a catcher. Lets be fair. Over the last two years, Napoli has been a DH when not catching , so lets slice this number in half. We'll say that he has lost an average of 13 games played / yr over the last four years just for being a catcher.
119+13 = 132. Thats a good baseline for a healthy Napoli. A very JD Drewish number.
You are assuming we were Ok with Drew's number.
Also, Naps was not a FT catcher the last 4 years averaging 119 gms.
2009: C 84/ 1B 16
2010: C 66/ 1B 70
2011: C 61/ 1B 35/ DH 19
2012: C 72/ 1B 28/ DH 9
Over the last 3 years combined, Naps has started games at these positions:
C: 199 (About 66 per year)
1B: 133 (About 44 per year)
DH: 28 (About 9 per year)
I find it hard to believe that catching less than 40% of the games in a season is why he missed so much time. I see no reason to think he will play more than 119 games in 2013, after flunking a physical due to a bum hip.
Over the last four years, Napoli has hit 100 homeruns (exactly) over 475 games played. That computes to 1 HR in 21% of his games played.
132 *21% = 28 HR. Now lets say that Gomez (who I like as a back up) fills in for the remaining 30 games. Due to Gomez's minor league slugging %, its not unreasonable to project him as a 20 HR/ yr guy. 20 / 162 = a homerun in 12.35% of his games played. 30 * 12.35% = an additional 3-4 homeruns.
I agree here, and being in Fenway may increase those projections, and his sub will hit a few HRs when Naps is sitting, so one could easily expect 22-30 HRs from 1B if Naps played 120 games.
And there we have it. 30 HR from the firstbase position using fair estimates, projections, and actual player averages. Also: we didnt factor in the fact that a lot of Napoli's games played were partial games played due to coming off the bench (which he frequently did) and defensive substitutions (which were made). We also didnt account for the fact that these numbers are based on Napoli as a catcher. As a firstbaseman , there will be less wear and tear on his body allowing him to potentially increase his HR/game rates.
Burrito, your durability concerns are very valid. However, durability and power are two completely different things. He may not be durable; however, he has a HR in 6.6% of his at-bats. This is the highest ding rate ever for a catcher. Better than Piazza and Pudge.
But, will those numbers remain high with a bum hip? The hip is a very improtant part of hitting.
His career slg% is over .500. His power is for real, and we need it (even if we only get 132 games of it). If Napoli has a real / untreatable injury , then of course we should pursue other options. However, based on what I read, it appears that there are warning signs of an injury down the road and not an already existing real / untreatable injury.
If this is true (and neither of us know for sure) than the correct way to handle this is to build injury protection into the contract. If my speculation is incorrect and its an already existing injury (or even if the the sox deem the risk of injury too high to pursue) thats okay. But I'm not comfortable with Kotchman as the replacement. We are not trying to replace Napoli's ability to cover first base. We are trying to replace the 28 HR / 132 games played power.
This is why I have said that a 1 year deal may be even worse than a 2-3 year deal. He may be healed by 2014, but stink up the place in 2013. We need to just say "no", unless the doctors think he will not be effected by the bum hip in 2013. (I doubt that is true.)
Trading for Butler, Upton, or both :) , intrigues me. Because these guys have 30 HR / yr power. However, I would need to know the cost of acquistion (prospect wise) for both. Trading for Morse also intriuges me, however, I would need to know the status of his health (he has an injury history himself), if he can be extended (he is a FA after this year), and (of course) the cost of acquisition (prospect wise).
Yes, the prospect cost must be weighed against their relatively low financial cost as compared to FAs of their skill level and age.