Flash in the Pan or Star?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Flash in the Pan or Star?

    Middlebrooks is just 5 for his last 27 and has struck out 20 times in 61 PA's. his average has dropped to .259 and his OBP to .295.
    I will give him the benefit of doubt because he still needs to learn to be patient at the plate and in the field, but there is no way he should be in the 5th spot of the order.
    I'm not sure he should not be sent down when Youk is ready. With Youk in the 5 hole, I think we see Agon's numbers improve, because even though Youk has struggled early, he is certainly capable of hurting pitchers more than Middlebrooks.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    They will send him back to Pawtucket.

    He has options, he needs to play everyday, Youkilis will not be activated to sit and watch.

    He will, however, be back. And he will be a better all round player for having had a small sample of what the major leagues is like.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]They will send him back to Pawtucket. He has options, he needs to play everyday, Youkilis will not be activated to sit and watch. He will, however, be back. And he will be a better all round player for having had a small sample of what the major leagues is like.
    Posted by ZILLAGOD[/QUOTE]

    Agreed. Sending him back down will make him better, and hungrier to get back.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    He's a young player who needs to figure it out.  Come up to the bigs.  Figure out what you do well and figure out what you need to work on.  Go back to the minors to work on the weaknesses.  It's all good.
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    Last July, Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo wrote: "While Middlebrooks always will have a healthy number of strikeouts, he's never going to be Mark Reynolds bad ..."

    Middlebrooks struck out at a higher rate (26%) in the minors than Reynolds did (23%), and here are their comparative stats for their first 14 MLB games as 23-year-old thirdbasemen called up in May:

    2007 MR 14 G, 59 PA, 7 BB, 11 K, .420/.483/.780/1.263
    2012 WM 14 G, 61 PA, 3 BB, 20 K, .259/.295/.552/.847

    Middlebrooks' 2012 MLB numbers are closer to those of Seattle's Alex Liddi, a same-age 6-foot-4 righthand-hitting thirdbaseman and Middlebrooks' opposing starting thirdbaseman in the 2011 Futures Game:

    2012 AL 19 G, 70 PA, 5 BB, 23 K, .262/.314/.385/.699

    Middlebrooks probably has a cautious upside of Reynolds/Brandon Inge, or an optimistic upside of Travis Fryman ... or Middlebrooks could be Alex Liddi.
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    Last night he struck out twice in a row on a steady diet of fastballs.  Time to regroup in Pawtucket and let the pro from dover back into the lineup.  Youk's back could still betray him, in which case WM will be back. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Yoshimi25. Show Yoshimi25's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    He's got good stuff and it's fun to watch him play.  He's got star potential, he just needs to prove it with consistency...which is something only time will tell.  But I like the kid a lot!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    Just like a sugar high, some people are coming off of Middlebrooks in a virtual crash.

    Young player who went from A through to AAA in a season last year. But he has had only about 150 AAA ABs. His first 56 ABs in AAA last season were nothing to write home about  (.468 OPS yes OPS). His next 93 were great and his first week in MLB he ripped the cover off of the ball.

    Considering he has only had 40 games of AAA ball, no shame in his going to Pawtucket to season while the RS see if Youk can get on track and stay off of the DL.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    What I don't understand about the "Keep Him In the Majors" crowd is why they keep ignoring Middlebrooks's "Super Two" status.

    Given recent changes, a player who is called up before early June in his first year, and then becomes a regular from that point forward, hits arbitration after TWO years instead of the usual three...and so the franchise would lose one year of rock-bottom salary AND each subsequent arbitration year will be more expensive (as players virtually always see a healthy raise each year of arbitration). Allowing Super Two status only makes sense for the biggest superstar prospects (Lincecum, Braun, etc).

    I doubt the Red Sox ever planned on giving Middlebrooks a chance to win the everyday job...his temporary call-up allowed them to fill Youkilis's hole in the lineup and give Middlebrooks some MLB experience.

    Keeping Middlebrooks in the majors will both put Youkilis to waste AND make Middlebrooks more expensive in the near future. Given that Middlebrooks is NOT a fully polished prospect yet, there is no reason to force his MLB stay.

    The roadmap is simple...the Sox will send Middlebrooks down when Youkilis is ready to return, which allows both to get everyday playing time. Youkilis will then have about 2 months to get going...if he does, the Red Sox can wait to call Middlebrooks up again until they think he is ready (that might not come until next year), and if Youkilis does not get going the Sox have his replacement ready to go, once the Super Two "deadline" has passed.

    Also, there's little reason to project exactly what he can be at this point. He has highly respected defense, and if nothing else will be a power hitter in the majors with mediocre plate discipline. If he can improve his eye, many scouts have said he can be a Scott Rolen type of hitter, but there is a LONG way to go before we'll have any idea of what he'll be.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    yes...lets send him down and start punto instead...that makes a lot of sense...or better yet, an unmotivated, unhealthy Youk....

    thanks for playing...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]yes...lets send him down and start punto instead...that makes a lot of sense...or better yet, an unmotivated, unhealthy Youk.... thanks for playing...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    plus we all know there are so many guys on the sox team who have hit 5 homeruns in a month.....
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    It's impossible to know at this point!  On one had there the Bill's of the world rolling out the HOF carpet for him, Lav and Iggy, on the other people panicking because of a 27-at bat sample size.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In response to "Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?": [QUOTE]Last July, Boston  Globe columnist Nick Cafardo wrote: "While Middlebrooks always will have a healthy number of strikeouts, he's never going to be Mark Reynolds bad ..." Middlebrooks struck out at a higher rate (26%) in the minors than Reynolds did (23%), and here are their comparative stats for their first 14 MLB games as 23-year-old thirdbasemen called up in May: 2007 MR 14 G, 59 PA, 7 BB, 11 K, .420/.483/.780/1.263 2012 WM 14 G, 61 PA, 3 BB, 20 K, .259/.295/.552/.847 Middlebrooks' 2012 MLB numbers are closer to those of Seattle's Alex Liddi, a same-age 6-foot-4 righthand-hitting thirdbaseman and Middlebrooks' opposing starting thirdbaseman in the 2011 Futures Game: 2012 AL 19 G, 70 PA, 5 BB, 23 K, .262/.314/.385/.699 Middlebrooks probably has a cautious upside of Reynolds/Brandon Inge, or an optimistic upside of Travis Fryman ... or Middlebrooks could be Alex Liddi. Posted by hill55[/QUOTE] Hill, you can manipulate those stats any way you want, but they are pretty useless in predicting Middlebrooks' development. No one has any idea how he'll develop and make adjustments. At least the kid looks like he can play defense, while Mark Reynolds could wear his glove on his right foot and it would make little difference....
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]He's got good stuff and it's fun to watch him play.  He's got star potential, he just needs to prove it with consistency...which is something only time will tell.  But I like the kid a lot!
    Posted by Yoshimi25[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, but I hate the mullet. I want clean-cut ball-players!
    It's my military background :)
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]Last July, Boston  Globe columnist Nick Cafardo wrote: "While Middlebrooks always will have a healthy number of strikeouts, he's never going to be Mark Reynolds bad ..." Middlebrooks struck out at a higher rate (26%) in the minors than Reynolds did (23%), and here are their comparative stats for their first 14 MLB games as 23-year-old thirdbasemen called up in May: 2007 MR 14 G, 59 PA, 7 BB, 11 K, .420/.483/.780/1.263 2012 WM 14 G, 61 PA, 3 BB, 20 K, .259/.295/.552/.847 Middlebrooks' 2012 MLB numbers are closer to those of Seattle's Alex Liddi, a same-age 6-foot-4 righthand-hitting thirdbaseman and Middlebrooks' opposing starting thirdbaseman in the 2011 Futures Game: 2012 AL 19 G, 70 PA, 5 BB, 23 K, .262/.314/.385/.699 Middlebrooks probably has a cautious upside of Reynolds/Brandon Inge, or an optimistic upside of Travis Fryman ... or Middlebrooks could be Alex Liddi.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Mark Reynolds bats .190 and leads the league in errors.  A better comparison would be Adrian Beltre in his Seattle years.  ~.260 BA, 25 HR, solid D.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star? : Mark Reynolds bats .190 and leads the league in errors.  A better comparison would be Adrian Beltre in his Seattle years.  ~.260 BA, 25 HR, solid D.
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]

    That's a good call, a very good call, and though Middlebrooks doesn't have the SS level range that Beltre brought to the table, he's a tad steadier at the position I think...and I would totally take a Beltre-type career (factoring in that Middlebrooks wouldn't be stuck in pitcher parks, of course).
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]yes...lets send him down and start punto instead...that makes a lot of sense...or better yet, an unmotivated, unhealthy Youk.... thanks for playing...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Well clearly Middlebrooks isn't going anywhere until Youkilis is back...so that's not an issue.

    It DOES make a lot of sense to play Youkilis instead though...it's a better use of resources (keeps Middlebrooks much cheaper down the road, and makes use of Youkilis, who like it or not is a team resource). I totally agree that we can't expect much of anything from Youkilis at this point due to his poor health (though show me some proof about lack of motivation...I'll call your bluff there), but that's why we have Middlebrooks anyway!

    In a best-case scenario, Youkilis returns to 80+% of form and plays out the rest of the year, Middlebrooks takes his MLB lessons and has a great rest of the year in AAA (and can spend the time focusing on plate discipline, whereas if he played in the majors his focus would have to be on whatever production he can make), and then the latter would take over 3B next year.

    In a worse case scenario, after a couple of months of limited but far from atrocious hitting, Youkilis shows he can't be healthy and Middlebrooks would be back for good. What would be so terrible about that?


    On the other hand, if we keep Middlebrooks up:
    -He becomes a Super Two and costs the team millions more in salary over arbitration
    -Youkilis goes completely to waste
    -Middlebrooks is forced to sink or swim at the MLB level, and would not be able to even try and work on his plate discipline, making him a lesser hitter in the short and possibly even the long term

    Why go with the most expensive, wasteful, and biggest downside option? Where's the sense in that?
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In response to "Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?": [QUOTE]What I don't understand about the "Keep Him In the Majors" crowd is why they keep ignoring Middlebrooks's "Super Two" status. Given recent changes, a player who is called up before early June in his first year, and then becomes a regular from that point forward, hits arbitration after TWO years instead of the usual three...and so the franchise would lose one year of rock-bottom salary AND each subsequent arbitration year will be more expensive (as players virtually always see a healthy raise each year of arbitration). Allowing Super Two status only makes sense for the biggest superstar prospects (Lincecum, Braun, etc). I doubt the Red Sox ever planned on giving Middlebrooks a chance to win the everyday job...his temporary call-up allowed them to fill Youkilis's hole in the lineup and give Middlebrooks some MLB experience. Keeping Middlebrooks in the majors will both put Youkilis to waste AND make Middlebrooks more expensive in the near future. Given that Middlebrooks is NOT a fully polished prospect yet, there is no reason to force his MLB stay. The roadmap is simple...the Sox will send Middlebrooks down when Youkilis is ready to return, which allows both to get everyday playing time. Youkilis will then have about 2 months to get going...if he does, the Red Sox can wait to call Middlebrooks up again until they think he is ready (that might not come until next year), and if Youkilis does not get going the Sox have his replacement ready to go, once the Super Two "deadline" has passed. Also, there's little reason to project exactly what he can be at this point. He has highly respected defense, and if nothing else will be a power hitter in the majors with mediocre plate discipline. If he can improve his eye, many scouts have said he can be a Scott Rolen type of hitter, but there is a LONG way to go before we'll have any idea of what he'll be. Posted by redsoxu571[/QUOTE] Great post...the "Super Two" makes it a no brainer and if the plan is to move Youk at some point (it's possible), he needs to play...
     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]yes...lets send him down and start punto instead...that makes a lot of sense...or better yet, an unmotivated, unhealthy Youk.... thanks for playing...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Exactly where do you get the notion that Youk is "unmotivated" ???  Sorry, but that is completely baseless and border-line to me putting you in a time-out.

    Do Not Mess With Youk!!!!!!!!!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star? : Mark Reynolds bats .190 and leads the league in errors.  A better comparison would be Adrian Beltre in his Seattle years.  ~.260 BA, 25 HR, solid D.
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]
    Mark Reynolds has a career on-base percentage of .331 in the majors after an OBP of .360 in the minors while Will Middlebrooks has a career OBP of .333 in the minors.

    I'll make a bold prediction that Middlebrooks will never win a Gold Glove.

    Adrian Beltre, who was Baseball America's 30th-ranked prospect before his 18th birthday and third-ranked prospect before his 19th birthday, struck out in 14.1 percent of his 1,394 minor league plate appearances while Will Middlebrooks struck out in 26.3 percent of his 1,796 minor league plate appearances.

    The 23-year-old Middlebrooks bears little resemblance to Beltre.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    In Response to Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?": Hill, you can manipulate those stats any way you want, but they are pretty useless in predicting Middlebrooks' development. No one has any idea how he'll develop and make adjustments. At least the kid looks like he can play defense, while Mark Reynolds could wear his glove on his right foot and it would make little difference....
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]
    Mark Reynolds has an abysmal .928 fielding percentage and a UZR/150* of a negative 11.5 in 5,596.2 career innings at third base.

    Will Middlebrooks has a fielding percentage of .914 and a UZR/150 of a negative 12.4 in a limited sample of 128 innings at third base.

    Has Middlebrooks in fact passed the defensive eye test so far?

    * http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Flash in the Pan or Star?

    No surprise that he is starting to struggle as they pitch him tougher. Now , it is up to him to figure it out and make the needed adjustments .
     
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