Re: FO, take notice and act quickly
posted at 5/17/2013 9:04 AM EDT
In response to devildavid's comment:
There are two arguments going here, and maybe we are confusing the two.
In response to moonslav59's comment:
There probabaly are stats like that, but do you really think a player who K's 35% of the time vs a player who K's 15% of the time really fails to advance a runner by a whole heck of a lot more over a full season?
My guess is it might be 6-12 times over a season. Let's assume the BA and OBP are the same....
600 PAs with 20% more Ks is 120 less balls put in play for outs. Do you think a runner is advanced more than 5-10% of those outs? Just curious.
I don't know, but that doesn't mean I assume it is statistically insignificant without the numbers to back it up. I only know that certain situations in games would be better served by a ball put in play than by a strikeout. How many games lost by one run could be changed into a win? Is one more win insignificant?
Argument one: is it better to strike out or put the ball in play? Of course the answer here is obvious (assuming BB% rates are constant). Putting the ball in play allows you to get more hits, sac flies, or outs that advance runners. A higher BA and SLG% is a result of putting the ball in play more often. No argument here.
Argument two: if a player is producing with a nice OBP and/or Slg%, does it matter if his K rate is abnormally high? My answer here is a resounding "NO!". I look at it like this: if my leadoff hitter has a .385 or better OBP, I could care less is every out he makes is a K or not. If my number 3 hitter has a .375 OBP and a .575 Slg%, I could care less if all his outs are Ks or whatever else.
Now, if a team is struggling offensively and needs to manufacture runs, and most players are not meeting minmum requirements for their slot in the batting order, then of course you want hitters who put the ball in play more foten in hopes "something happens" and run materializes out of thin air.
To criticize this team for striking out too much is overlooking the major factors that have occurred so far. We have been a much more balanced offense from top (well from the #2 slot) to the bottom, home and away, (not lefty- righty), and most importantly, our mean runs scored is 5 not 4.
In 2007, we had 79 games with 4 or less runs scored. Our mean was just 5.
Here's a closer look at run balance:
0-4 5 6+ Median
'07 79 16 67 5
'08 71 22 69 5
'09 73 15 74 5
'10 76 21 65 5
'11 85 15 62 4
'12 96 13 53 4 (79 games at 3 or under runs scored!)
'13 20 3 18 5
pace: 79 12 71 5
Let's not count 2012 in this discussion, but rather let's look at 2011. By nearly all accounts we had a great hitting team, but we had 85 games with 0-4 runs scored and 100 games with 0-5 runs scored. This year, so far, we on pace for just 79 games with 0-4 runs scored and 91 with 0-5 runs scored. We are currently 16-2 in games we score 6 or more runs, so that's a good sign as of now.
We needed to improve on the 2011 numbers to have a real chance this year, and here's a look:
OPS 2011 2013
v R .811 .818 (Runs/gm: 5.3 to 5.1 )
v L .807 .692 (Runs/gm: 5.5 to 4.3)
H .839 .781 (5.7 to 4.4)
A .780 .771 (5.1 to 5.3)
1 .903 .665
2 .827 .720
3 .916 .851
4 .861 .943
5 .885 .751
6 .695 .759
7 .778 .867
8 .629 .673
9 .757 .742
(Note: all MLB has seen an overall dip in offense over the last 3 years as compared to 2007-2009)