For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

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For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Ever since following this chatboard, I cannot help but notice the consistently and absurdly low-ball salary and year offers put forth by the poster intermittently known as Softlaw.  These offers, in practically any scenario, would never lead to any acquisition, and thus, the Red Sox would be left  fielding a bargain-basement team if any GM followed his advice.

What I'm mildly curious to know is whether these offers bear any mathematical relationship to final determined salaries.  Perhaps, after some research, we may discover that the final settlement is somewhere in the neighborhood of double the salary and years.  For example, here's a classic tidbit from Drewski's OPS thread, "Napoli's value and fit ends for the Red Sox at 2 years and 20M."  We may discover that ultimately Napoli is offered 4 years and 40M.

I welcome anyone familiar with Softlaw's past suggested offers and willing to collect the data in old posts vis a vis ultimate settlements of player salaries to determine if there is some sort of ratio that can be applied here.  If there is a method in any of this madness, we may discover that we are able to simply multiply by some number to arrive at the player's ultimate settlement.  This number can then be known as "The Softlaw ratio" or constant.  Applying the Softlaw ratio, an organization may be able to look beyond numbers like WAR to attain an edge in predicting ultimate settlements and determine whether to pursue or not to pursue.

Thank you for your attention, and a big thank you to anyone willing to do research.  Your reward may be your hiring to the staff of the Red Sox organization for such a useful discovery.  Please do pass along some credit to the Sheriff if this comes to fruition.  That's all I ask.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Some recent data:

softy suggested we offer these 5 starting pitchers \$1M/1 last winter, and here is what they signed for (market value):

CM Wang \$4M/1

F Garcia  \$4M/1

Oswalt    \$5M/1 (actually about 2/3rds of a season)

B Chen    \$9M/2

Bedard     \$4.5M/1

Some history:

softy claimed Mauer would resign with the Twins. This was actually his last correct position on this site, however, he claimed he would sign for \$17-18M x 7-8 years. Mauer signed for \$24M x 8.

softy claimed that there was a zero chance AGon would extend with the Sox in April. He said he would become a FA and then sign with the Sox for about \$18-19M x 6 or 7 years. He was wrong on both counts, of course as AGon signed for \$22M x 7. As softy is known to do, he backspun and attempted to re-write his own history, by claiming that his projection was accurate, since the extension should count the \$5.5M he got paid the last year of his previous contract signed in 2007. That would make it ~\$159.5M/8 not \$154M/7. He thinks we are dumb enough to fall for these distortions. First, he said it wouldn't be an extension, then he claimed the numbers he gave were an extension, and that the common way to report the extension was by including the previous numbers- something that is never done in MLB contract discussions anywhere, anytime, anyhow.

I could go on and on, but I don't want to bore you...

3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pelosireturns. Show pelosireturns's posts

Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Softlaw is not wrong. MLB GM's are wrong!

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to pelosireturns' comment:

Softlaw is not wrong. MLB GM's are wrong!

Then I guess in your reality Karl Rove is correct and all the talliers are wrong too.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Rough figures, on any of the bigger contracts, Softy will come in at 65-70% of what the actual contract ends up at.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

Rough figures, on any of the bigger contracts, Softy will come in at 65-70% of what the actual contract ends up at.

Yes, and lower contracts, he's been at about 20-25%. Maybe his overall rate is at about 40-50%.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Even if the Twins had listened to softlaw they still would be over-paying Mauer. I have never seen such a blatant screw up as this and all because he was a local favortite with leadership skills. I doubt he even beats Tek in his prime in terms of offense. Factoring in the Twins payroll abilities they hamstrung themselves for a a guy who never hits more than 15 homers and drives in a max 75 ribbies.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Muaer could still bust out, but it does look like a horrible and crippling deal for the twinkies.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Some recent data:

softy suggested we offer these 5 starting pitchers \$1M/1 last winter, and here is what they signed for (market value):

CM Wang \$4M/1

F Garcia  \$4M/1

Oswalt    \$5M/1 (actually about 2/3rds of a season)

B Chen    \$9M/2

Bedard     \$4.5M/1

Some history:

softy claimed Mauer would resign with the Twins. This was actually his last correct position on this site, however, he claimed he would sign for \$17-18M x 7-8 years. Mauer signed for \$24M x 8.

softy claimed that there was a zero chance AGon would extend with the Sox in April. He said he would become a FA and then sign with the Sox for about \$18-19M x 6 or 7 years. He was wrong on both counts, of course as AGon signed for \$22M x 7. As softy is known to do, he backspun and attempted to re-write his own history, by claiming that his projection was accurate, since the extension should count the \$5.5M he got paid the last year of his previous contract signed in 2007. That would make it ~\$159.5M/8 not \$154M/7. He thinks we are dumb enough to fall for these distortions. First, he said it wouldn't be an extension, then he claimed the numbers he gave were an extension, and that the common way to report the extension was by including the previous numbers- something that is never done in MLB contract discussions anywhere, anytime, anyhow.

I could go on and on, but I don't want to bore you...

Looks like you might be onto something, Moonie.  Assuming your selections are not biased, there is a trend here.  Softy seems to be more or less accurate in terms of the years, but as you said earlier, he is about 20% to 25% accurate on short-term contracts.  He is closer on long-term contracts (around 80%) given a sample of only two players whose signings he promoted (up to a point, of course - a rarity).

I know you warned you don't want to bore me, but we need much more data to test this theory. I kind of asked for it in a manner of speaking.

10. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

If they were running a 200 million dollar payroll it would not be a big deal but they are medium market and yes it is crippling. They should let Morneau walk and move Mauer to first permanently; the last thing they need is for his knees to go. Perhaps without having to deal with the pitching staff and reducing wear and tear on the body he can improve to 20/90.... maybe.

Just looking at it he has never had a 200 hit season, barely can hit 30 doubles, and has never ever scored or driven in 100 runs.

He will only be 30 years old this spring.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

Even if the Twins had listened to softlaw they still would be over-paying Mauer. I have never seen such a blatant screw up as this and all because he was a local favortite with leadership skills. I doubt he even beats Tek in his prime in terms of offense. Factoring in the Twins payroll abilities they hamstrung themselves for a a guy who never hits more than 15 homers and drives in a max 75 ribbies.

Fair enough.  I would agree that nearly all large free agent signings are overpays, but if you didn't want to overpay, you'd never acquire anybody via free agency and would have to operate like Tampa.  Red Sox fans would not be willing to wait 5 to 10 years of last place finishes to build a team.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

He said the Lackey signing was an "overpay", but agreed with it at the time once he found out their was an injury clause attached (that is now activated). Later, he said Lackey was only worth \$50M/5, but my guess is we could project he probably would have suggested \$70M/5 with the injury clause.

He really doesn't advoacte large FS signings, so the sample sizes are small.

This year he has suggested:

Guthrie \$10M/2

Napoli \$20M/2 (I don't get why he wanted us to pay VMart more than what the tigers offered, but is so low on Napoli.)

He called my \$25M/3 suggested offer for Marcum too low, but did not advocate offering more.

Perhaps he can come here and "BE SPECIFIC" and give us his offers for all the top FAs on the market, so we can all go back and laugh later.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to moonslav59's comment:

He said the Lackey signing was an "overpay", but agreed with it at the time once he found out their was an injury clause attached (that is now activated). Later, he said Lackey was only worth \$50M/5, but my guess is we could project he probably would have suggested \$70M/5 with the injury clause.

He really doesn't advoacte large FS signings, so the sample sizes are small.

This year he has suggested:

Guthrie \$10M/2

Napoli \$20M/2 (I don't get why he wanted us to pay VMart more than what the tigers offered, but is so low on Napoli.)

He called my \$25M/3 suggested offer for Marcum too low, but did not advocate offering more.

Perhaps he can come here and "BE SPECIFIC" and give us his offers for all the top FAs on the market, so we can all go back and laugh later.

Given the likelihood that whatever info he posts will be lost due to subsequent bannings, we will rely on your recollections and corraborating testimony from other posters.

14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

He said the Lackey signing was an "overpay", but agreed with it at the time once he found out their was an injury clause attached (that is now activated). Later, he said Lackey was only worth \$50M/5, but my guess is we could project he probably would have suggested \$70M/5 with the injury clause.

He really doesn't advoacte large FS signings, so the sample sizes are small.

This year he has suggested:

Guthrie \$10M/2

Napoli \$20M/2 (I don't get why he wanted us to pay VMart more than what the tigers offered, but is so low on Napoli.)

He called my \$25M/3 suggested offer for Marcum too low, but did not advocate offering more.

Perhaps he can come here and "BE SPECIFIC" and give us his offers for all the top FAs on the market, so we can all go back and laugh later.

Given the likelihood that whatever info he posts will be lost due to subsequent bannings, we will rely on your recollections and corraborating testimony from other posters.

Actually, posts that are reply's to his posts can be saved once he is banned.

If he posts the numbers with specificity, I will save them by replying directly to his post.

My guess is he will never give specific numbers, because he knows he will be way off.

I have never seen softy suggest an offer that was within even 10% of the final cost, except maybe one time, after the fact, he said we should have outbid Detroit for VMart, and I think he agreed with the initial offer made by Boston. Was it \$46M/4? I think VMart ended up getting \$50M/4, so maybe there was one close call.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

How often does softlaw propose what he thinks a player will get as apposed to what that player should get? Fine line there.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to moonslav59's comment:

In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

He said the Lackey signing was an "overpay", but agreed with it at the time once he found out their was an injury clause attached (that is now activated). Later, he said Lackey was only worth \$50M/5, but my guess is we could project he probably would have suggested \$70M/5 with the injury clause.

He really doesn't advoacte large FS signings, so the sample sizes are small.

This year he has suggested:

Guthrie \$10M/2

Napoli \$20M/2 (I don't get why he wanted us to pay VMart more than what the tigers offered, but is so low on Napoli.)

He called my \$25M/3 suggested offer for Marcum too low, but did not advocate offering more.

Perhaps he can come here and "BE SPECIFIC" and give us his offers for all the top FAs on the market, so we can all go back and laugh later.

Given the likelihood that whatever info he posts will be lost due to subsequent bannings, we will rely on your recollections and corraborating testimony from other posters.

Actually, posts that are reply's to his posts can be saved once he is banned.

If he posts the numbers with specificity, I will save them by replying directly to his post.

My guess is he will never give specific numbers, because he knows he will be way off.

I have never seen softy suggest an offer that was within even 10% of the final cost, except maybe one time, after the fact, he said we should have outbid Detroit for VMart, and I think he agreed with the initial offer made by Boston. Was it \$46M/4? I think VMart ended up getting \$50M/4, so maybe there was one close call.

It was driven by riling you and Harness over CERA.  Spite is his middle name.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

softy, fill in the blanks...

A= What would you offer if we needed a player at their positions?

B= What do you think they are worth on the open FA market (tops)?

A                    B

Bourn        __________   __________

S Drew     ___________  __________

Greinke    ___________  ___________

Guthrie    ___________  ___________

Hamilton   __________   __________

Haren      ___________   ___________

E Jackson __________   ____________

Kuroda    ___________  ____________

LaRoche ___________  ____________

Lohse     ____________   ____________

D Lowe  ____________  _____________

Ludwick ____________   _____________

Marcum ____________   _____________

McCarthy ___________  ______________

Napoli    ____________   _____________

A Pagan ____________   _____________

C Ross   ____________   _____________

A Sanchez ___________   ______________

J Saunders ___________  ______________

R Soriano  ____________  ______________

Swisher    ____________   _______________

My guess is he will not give any specifics here. He will say something like, "I don't specualte on the insanity of ML GMs".  So, softy, tell us what you, as a GM, would offer these "union slugs".

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

How often does softlaw propose what he thinks a player will get as apposed to what that player should get? Fine line there.

because he uses the term "The market value" for this player is X amount of dollars and years.

That tells me hes being specific about what he believes that market to be for a certain player, not what he proposes it be.

He said papi had a 1yr 6M market, when in fact we know Texas would have offered 2 years although we dont know at what price. I would imagine it would have to be a value over the qualifying offer of 13.3 to even stand a chance, or would not even be interested. I also believe (no proof, just a feeling) That Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa might have made an offer. While I think the Jays and O's couldve offered 2 years, I think the rays might have only gone one at higher value or 2 at a bit lower.

Bottom line is There was more that a 1yr 6M market for papi.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

A competent GM makes offers based upon value, and only with rare value and fit profiles within certain markets will the two meet.

There's a stooge on here who prevaricates to try and maintain his credibility, which is strictly a function of the owners of this platform and the shill status the stooge has here. That stooge foolishly boasted that the Twins couldn't afford Mauer. The stooge coveted Mauer but was whining about the Yankees getting Mauer. His prevarication is always the same. He claims that my offers are market offer predictions, when they are always value based offers. In the case of Mauer, I never even made what would have been a meaningless prediction about waht the Twins extended him to. I accurately said that they could afford him and would sign him, going into detail about the unique marget and individual factors that would lead the Twins to go as high as 25M and 8 years, if that's what Mauer's agent attempted to demand.

We argued for weeks over specific dolar amounts. You lie and lie and lie.  It comes natural to you.

On Agon, his prevarication is the same modus. The notion that I said AGon would be a FA is about as accurate as Obama's national security cover-up to retain his demagogue authority.

You had your thread permanently at the top of the thread list. It stayed there for weeks. Anyone who is still around from back then knows very well that your whole point was that the trade was not made with a "wink-wink" agreement that he'd sign after the season began to save the Sox from budgetary problems with the luxury tax. Most of us told you he'd signan extension in April. you went to great lengths to claim he would become a FA. Now you lie again. (No surprise)

I'm the one who said the wrap-around extension would be part of the deal, which it was. The stooge likes to repeat "that's not how they do it in baseball", when he goes on about offering Wakefield 2 million dollars. He then drops it to 1M and then a begs for 3/4 million. That's not how baseball negotiations work, stooge.

I never droipped my offer for 2012. It was always \$1M with incentives that could bring it to \$2M or \$2.5M. More lies.

The laughable part of this rathole poster is that he thinks he's being funny and clever, when he doesn't have a clue.

This from tne guy who has been wrong on every issue since the mauer signing, which he actually only got half right.

I said to budget market value for AGon and that the Padres would sell him and the Red Sox should acquire him back when the Padres owner said they weren't trading him.

Thus, Agon and his giant contract would be acquired and would still be here.

You also said the deal would be Jake & Jed. I said it would be Kelly, Rizzo & Bowden. You claimed they already had a stud 1B prospect and didn't want or need Rizzo. After the trade, instead of admitting you were wrong, you blamed the SD GM for not "holding out for jake & jed".

More lies.

Ditto on Beltre.

You were against Beltre, and claimed youk would not be more likely to get hurt playing 3b over 1B, even going so far as to say 3B was easier on the body than 1B.

Crawford and Jenks, to name a few, would not be part of what makes the incompetent GM's so bad that even their apologists are silent.

And the most amusing fact is that InEpstein and Cherry have made decisions that have cost the Red Sox neraly a billion dollar in big labor costs that have produces zero playoff wins for nearly a half a decade.

You wanted CC to be our leadoff hitter, even against LHPs.

So, the author of this thread needs to take a step up from being a bid dope and do the following ratio:

The Cherry ratio is "divide his offers by 2" to reach the very best case value hope for the labor decisions he makes.

Look no further than his reacent 2 year base 3+ contract for an old career backup catcher who had never made buy about half that base in his entire career!

Needless to say, for the sake of the pitiful train wreck the Red Sox are in, I'd be willing to take over the GM's job for no charge. And as good as I am at value decisions, I could be the same big dope as the author of his thread and still do a better job than Cherry.

If you were GM, we'd never get any FAs. We'd trade away all liberal college educated players, anyone who didn't return to play in the average amount of time for specific injuries, we'd keep all the BHalls, DMacs, Kotchmans, and the likes, and we'd finish in last place every year.

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Re: For you mathematicians out there: What is the Softlaw salary/year ratio?

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

he uses the term "The market value"

I don't use the term "market value" for my offers. You don't know the difference.

yes you do

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