Free Agents, years and money

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Free Agents, years and money

    Who do the Sox bring back?    Number of years and how much money?

     

    Drew?

    Saltalamacchia?

    Napoli?

    Ellsbury?



     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    1) I'd offer Ellsbury $75M/5. He will walk. We get a draft pick.

    (I'd make a play for Choo next , but would not pay what I think he will get.)

    Maybe we end up with DeJesus or Beltran as bridges to the kids.

     

    2) Next, I offer Napoli a $26M/2 year deal with PA incentives that can bring him to $30M/2. #rd year team option of $13M with $2M in PA incentives and a $2.5M buyout. Essentially, his deal is $28.5M/2 (meets QO criteria) or $39M/3 with incentives.

     

    3) If Napoli accepts his offer, I do not offer Drew a QO contract, unless I am very sure he will decline it. If Napoli declines the offer, I'd offer Drew something similar to Napoli's deal. I'd try and find a great inexpensive defensive SS as out utility IF'er.

     

    4) I'd offer Salty $33M/3 with a club option 4th year at $10M with a $1M buyout. Essentially, it's a $34M/3 deal. If he says no, I'd offer him the minimum 1 year QO and see what happens.

     

    5) If Salty declines, I'd look for a 1 year bridge to Vazquez, Lava, Swihart, Denny. I would not go after McCann.

     

    6) I'd try hard to get RP Mujica.

     

    I'd like to see this team for 2014:

    C: Salty/Ross

    1B: Napoli/Carp (Middy/Papi/Nava)

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Middy (Bogey)

    SS: Bogey/ B Ryan

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Carp)

    CF: Victorino/JBJ

    RF: Beltran (Victorino/Nava)

    SP: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster (Morales) 

    RP: Uehara, Breslow, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Workman (Bailey)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Hey Moon,

    What's Sox' payroll flexibility for this off season?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Dump Salty while his value is about as high is it will ever get, the dude strikes out too much...and isn't that sensational of a catcher.

    Dump Ellsbury , he made a key error, and didn't really hit or get on base well enough for me. I'd keep him at a bargain price, but he will ask for crazy money and crazy years.

    Drew, I might keep...but no more than 3 years. He won me with his clutch defense. about 3-5 million per, no more.

    Napoli needs to stay. He is clutch, better fielder than you give him credit for, and we need his power in the middle of the lineup. You're not going to find a better 1st baseman on the market for less.
     3 years, 10-15 million.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    Hey Moon,

    What's Sox' payroll flexibility for this off season?



    roughly around 140 millions including Lester's option being picked up, Bailey, and Dempster.

    So by trading Dempster, Bailey, and few others could free up to 20 millions dollars

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to seannybboi's comment:

    Hey Moon,

    What's Sox' payroll flexibility for this off season?



    My guess is we will have about $35M to play with and still stay under the limit.

    We could trade Dempster and Baliey to save over $15M. We could restructure Lackey's deal to even out the minimum wage 2015 year with 2014 to save about $7M. So, if we get creative, we could end up with about $55-60M to spend, but with a lot of holes to fill:

    C

    CF

    1B

    SS/3B

    RP

     

     

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $6M Thornton (Club option or $1M buyout- count as $1M or +$5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: $121M +$5M option= $126M

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $4.5M  Bailey 3 of 3 ($4.1M)

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $1.5M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.5M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $12M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Kalish, Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:

    $145M no Thornton

    Or

    $150M with Thornton

     

    2014 FAs

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)

    $9.5M Drew

    $9M Ellsbury

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia

     

    $1.5M McDonald

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Top Priority:  Ellsbury I open w/ 5/$70 (for the 5 day grace period) then I go straight to 6/$100 w/ a full no trade and I keep the offer on the table for a like a month (I don't care, let someone else try and do better than that offer)

    Drew:  QO, take it or leave it

    Naps: 2/26 (to make him whole from the original deal from last year) and if he rejects then QO (he may change his mind or at least we get the pick)

    Salty:  I have to wait on to see what happens from above (If we keep all 3 from above, I'll need to go cheap on catcher and maybe give Lava a longer look this winter)

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    Top Priority:  Ellsbury I open w/ 5/$70 (for the 5 day grace period) then I go straight to 6/$100 w/ a full no trade and I keep the offer on the table for a like a month (I don't care, let someone else try and do better than that offer)

    Drew:  QO, take it or leave it

    Naps: 2/26 (to make him whole from the original deal from last year) and if he rejects then QO (he may change his mind or at least we get the pick)

    Salty:  I have to wait on to see what happens from above (If we keep all 3 from above, I'll need to go cheap on catcher and maybe give Lava a longer look this winter)



    Of all the positions we might leave to 2014 in-system solutions, I feel the catching position is the weakest.

    I do not think Vazquez is ready. Lava is too risky, especially behind the plate.

    1B has Middy, Carp, Nava and Papi to fight for PAs.

    CF has Victorino and JBJ to split the PAs (Nava/Brentz in RF?).

    SS Bogey should do better at SS than Lava at catcher.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    According to Jon Heyman the Red Sox plan to offer QO's to Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    According to Jon Heyman the Red Sox plan to offer QO's to Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew.



    I saw that. I hear the value placed on Salty may be close to $36M/4. I doubts Salty returns. Sad that he may leave with no return.

    Last winter, I argued that we should extend Salty before his value peaks or trade him while we still get something in return.

    (That was when I saw our team as having virtually no chance of winning a ring. Do we win the WS without Salty all year?)

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Take anything Heyman writes with a grain of salt; he's Boras' PR director. Napoli's QO is a no-brainer, so that is not breaking news. The other two, Ells and Drew, are Boras clients, hence Heyman listing those three.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    I'd QO all four.  Ells is gone, replaced by JBJ.  I wouldn't offer as much to Napoli.  He had a .367 BABIP, about 57 points over career.  With 187 K's, he is a good candidate for regression.  And he was fairly healthy, but but his hip or foot could return.

    Offer him the QO and be prepared to match up to maybe $22M/2.  I'm a fan, but he is risky.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Joe,

    I think that Drew is every bit as risky as Napoli, but for different reasons.

    Drew was not worth the $9 M he got this year.  Yes, he played well defensively in the playoffs and also during the season, but he is pretty much a "glove only" player (who has so far, at least, only played one position) if he can remain healthy as he ended up batting less than .240 overall this year and under .250 two seasons ago in Oakland.

    A qualifying offer of $14 M even for one year is WAY too much as he is likely to take it as soon as he finds out that no one else is probably going to go over $7 M for him.  The qualifying offer is also going to scare away other teams from signing Drew as no one will want to give up a first round pick for a .240 hitter.

    I would semi-reluctantly offer him two years and $7 M per season, and I say that because if he is back in Boston in 2014 he will be taking shortstop innings from Bogaerts.

    I bet that you could bring back Pokie Reese and get about the same defense as Drew provides for much less money.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    Joe,

    I think that Drew is every bit as risky as Napoli, but for different reasons.

    Drew was not worth the $9 M he got this year.  Yes, he played well defensively in the playoffs and also during the season, but he is pretty much a "glove only" player (who has so far, at least, only played one position) if he can remain healthy as he ended up batting less than .240 overall this year and under .250 two seasons ago in Oakland.

    A qualifying offer of $14 M even for one year is WAY too much as he is likely to take it as soon as he finds out that no one else is probably going to go over $7 M for him.  The qualifying offer is also going to scare away other teams from signing Drew as no one will want to give up a first round pick for a .240 hitter.

    I would semi-reluctantly offer him two years and $7 M per season, and I say that because if he is back in Boston in 2014 he will be taking shortstop innings from Bogaerts.

    I bet that you could bring back Pokie Reese and get about the same defense as Drew provides for much less money.

     



    Drew was one of the best offensive SSs this year.

    He had the 4th best SS OPS (.777) and 3rd best OBP (.333) out of the 18 SSs with 500+ PAs. You have to go down to 350 PAs to get the SS sample size to 29. That alone should tell you something. His .777 OPS is over 100 points higher than 10 MLb SSs and 40 points higher than all but 7 other MLB SSs.

    It's all relative. He's not expected to hit like Papi to get a QO.

    I'm OK with Drew walking. I do think he gets a QO, but signs elsewhere and we get a draft pick.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Sox are making a mistake by not offering a QO to Salty. He got better as year went on. Dont forget Ross was out 2 Months. Salty was huge this year for the Sox.

    Sox have to take advantage of this, so at least to get Compensation.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    Joe,

    I think that Drew is every bit as risky as Napoli, but for different reasons.

    Drew was not worth the $9 M he got this year.  Yes, he played well defensively in the playoffs and also during the season, but he is pretty much a "glove only" player (who has so far, at least, only played one position) if he can remain healthy as he ended up batting less than .240 overall this year and under .250 two seasons ago in Oakland.

    A qualifying offer of $14 M even for one year is WAY too much as he is likely to take it as soon as he finds out that no one else is probably going to go over $7 M for him.  The qualifying offer is also going to scare away other teams from signing Drew as no one will want to give up a first round pick for a .240 hitter.

    I would semi-reluctantly offer him two years and $7 M per season, and I say that because if he is back in Boston in 2014 he will be taking shortstop innings from Bogaerts.

    I bet that you could bring back Pokie Reese and get about the same defense as Drew provides for much less money.

     



    Drew was one of the best offensive SSs this year.

    He had the 4th best SS OPS (.777) and 3rd best OBP (.333) out of the 18 SSs with 500+ PAs. You have to go down to 350 PAs to get the SS sample size to 29. That alone should tell you something. His .777 OPS is over 100 points higher than 10 MLb SSs and 40 points higher than all but 7 other MLB SSs.

    It's all relative. He's not expected to hit like Papi to get a QO.

    I'm OK with Drew walking. I do think he gets a QO, but signs elsewhere and we get a draft pick.




    People need to realize that Catchers and SS across MLB have lower numbers. Drews .777OPS this year ranked near the top again with players over a certain amount of PA's. Hes one of the better 2-way SS in MLB.

    He was well worth the 9M he was paid. If your even going to offer something, Id start with 3/30. He will get on the open market and will refuse the QO if offered because of multi-year deals offered.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to charliedarling's comment:

    Joe,

    I think that Drew is every bit as risky as Napoli, but for different reasons.

    Drew was not worth the $9 M he got this year.  Yes, he played well defensively in the playoffs and also during the season, but he is pretty much a "glove only" player (who has so far, at least, only played one position) if he can remain healthy as he ended up batting less than .240 overall this year and under .250 two seasons ago in Oakland.

    A qualifying offer of $14 M even for one year is WAY too much as he is likely to take it as soon as he finds out that no one else is probably going to go over $7 M for him.  The qualifying offer is also going to scare away other teams from signing Drew as no one will want to give up a first round pick for a .240 hitter.

    I would semi-reluctantly offer him two years and $7 M per season, and I say that because if he is back in Boston in 2014 he will be taking shortstop innings from Bogaerts.

    I bet that you could bring back Pokie Reese and get about the same defense as Drew provides for much less money.

     



    Drew was one of the best offensive SSs this year.

    He had the 4th best SS OPS (.777) and 3rd best OBP (.333) out of the 18 SSs with 500+ PAs. You have to go down to 350 PAs to get the SS sample size to 29. That alone should tell you something. His .777 OPS is over 100 points higher than 10 MLb SSs and 40 points higher than all but 7 other MLB SSs.

    It's all relative. He's not expected to hit like Papi to get a QO.

    I'm OK with Drew walking. I do think he gets a QO, but signs elsewhere and we get a draft pick.




    People need to realize that Catchers and SS across MLB have lower numbers. Drews .777OPS this year ranked near the top again with players over a certain amount of PA's. Hes one of the better 2-way SS in MLB.

    He was well worth the 9M he was paid. If your even going to offer something, Id start with 3/30. He will get on the open market and will refuse the QO if offered because of multi-year deals offered.



    fangraphs had Drew's 2013 value listed at $16.9M.

    FYI:

    $28.9M  Ells

    $28.0M  Vict (huge boost from his RF defense)

    $27.1M Pedey

    $19.5M Naps

    $19.0M Papi

    $17.8M Salty

    $16.9M Drew

    $9.2M  Nava (major hit from his "poor" defense)

    $6.2M Carp

    $5.0M Iggy

    $5.0M Gomes

    $1.7M Middy

     

    Just the hitting aspect of "value":

    35.3 Papi

    19.3 nAPS

    17.2 Nava

    12.5 Pedey

    11.8 Vict

    10.8 Carp

    9.1 Ells

    8.9 Salty

    5.1 Drew

    4.3 Iggy

    3.8 Gomes

    -7.3 Middy

     

    Pitching

    $21.4M Lester

    16.5 Uehara

    15.9 Buch

    15.9 Lackey

    14.2 Doub

    6.5 Peavy

    6.3 Demp

    5.6 Taz

    3.5 Workman

    3.5 Breslow

    2.1 Miller

    1.9 Britton

    1.7 Wilson

    1.2 Thornton

    0.3 Morales & Wright

    0.1 Bailey & beato

    0.0 Villareal

    negative: Bard, de la Torre, de la Rosa, Webster, Aceves, Hanarahan (best to worst)

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    Dump Salty while his value is about as high is it will ever get, the dude strikes out too much...and isn't that sensational of a catcher.

    Dump Ellsbury , he made a key error, and didn't really hit or get on base well enough for me. I'd keep him at a bargain price, but he will ask for crazy money and crazy years.

    Drew, I might keep...but no more than 3 years. He won me with his clutch defense. about 3-5 million per, no more.

    Napoli needs to stay. He is clutch, better fielder than you give him credit for, and we need his power in the middle of the lineup. You're not going to find a better 1st baseman on the market for less.
     3 years, 10-15 million.



    This post is out of touch.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    I believe Ellsbury will take a home town discount, but he's not going to go overboard about it.  If the Sox best offer is (and I am just throwing out numbers) 5/75 while his best offer on the market is 5/80, he'll stay.  If his market offer is 5/90, he won't.

     

    Salty is a real tough case.  Few catchers can hit like he does (streaky as that is), but he is below average defensively and I do not like his game management skills.  However, as moon says, there are not a lot of alternatives on the market, and trading for anyone decent is going to cost a lot in terms of talent.  Lavarnway's stock seems to have dropped a long way.

     

    Trading Dempster is not going to give you a lot of salary relief as I think the Sox will have to pay a good chunk of it.  I could see Dempster and Workman reversing roles next year with Workman sliding into the starting rotation as the #5.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Trading Dempster is not going to give you a lot of salary relief as I think the Sox will have to pay a good chunk of it.  I could see Dempster and Workman reversing roles next year with Workman sliding into the starting rotation as the #5.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think someone will pay almost all of Dempster's deal as long as they give up nothing in return. We could also trade Dempster for some elses salary dump, but at a position we need.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money


    I cannot see giving QO's to all four. While I like this team, Bogy is ready to play. To give QO's to all four means trading Middlebrooks.

    Offer Napoli 2/26 or QO. Scares me to go three years and I think you should count on him for 110-120 games next year. More than that and we get diminishing returns. Carp backs up 1st.  Napoli was a pleasant surprise at first, but I worry about the recurring foot problem more than the treated hip at this point.

    I think the Ells issue will be open for a long time as Boras seeks desperation and the max return. Offer him the base QO while working on two things:

    1) See if a trade can be made with the Marlins for Stanton. Probably not, but kick the tires nonetheless.

    2) If not, offer Beltran 2/26 as a bridge to asking about Stanton again when his arbitrated salary will probably be harder for Miami to swallow. Otherwise, bridge to kids or some other outfielder.

    If (1) or (2) come forward, let Ells walk. If neither (1) nor (2) work out, up offer to Ells to 5/85. I still don't think he takes it. JBJ should get a shot at the outfield in this case. Nava is no slouch either.

    I would offer Salty a QO.

    If Naps stays, then the infield is set with Bogy at SS and Middy at 3rd. Only way to offer Drew a QO is to trade Middy.

     

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    I cannot see giving QO's to all four. While I like this team, Bogy is ready to play. To give QO's to all four means trading Middlebrooks.

    Not all 4 will take the minimum QO, so Bogeya dn middy can both play.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    If Naps stays, then the infield is set with Bogy at SS and Middy at 3rd. Only way to offer Drew a QO is to trade Middy.

    How are we "all set" with Middy at 3B, when he lost the job twice this year?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    If Naps stays, then the infield is set with Bogy at SS and Middy at 3rd. Only way to offer Drew a QO is to trade Middy.

    How are we "all set" with Middy at 3B, when he lost the job twice this year?




    Hmmmm....  You added "ALL" which I certainly did not. Chnages what I meant entirely. I do not think that we are ALL set with Middlebrooks.

    My point is either play Middlebrooks or trade him altogether, I favor the latter option.

    Similar to my argument last year with respect to Iggy, I would rather have the SS and 3rd positions fielded by SS quality defenders for purposes of an effective shift. I advocated for Iggy at short and Bogy at 3rd. As I said in another post, I was happy with Drew although I admit to doubting him from the beginning of the season.

    I would be happier with an infield of Naps/Carp - Pedey - Drew - Bogy than I would with Naps/Carp - Pedey - Bogy - Middlebrooks.


    I do not agree with others that Middlebrooks at first is a good option. He did not lose his job at 3rd because of his glove, so why should his bat be better at 1st?

    If Naps and Drew pass on offers, then I would have to think about a 1st/3rd solution as I do not think that Middlebrooks is a long-term solution.

     
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