Free Agents, years and money

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Naps stays, then the infield is set with Bogy at SS and Middy at 3rd. Only way to offer Drew a QO is to trade Middy.

    How are we "all set" with Middy at 3B, when he lost the job twice this year?

    [/QUOTE]


    Hmmmm....  You added "ALL" which I certainly did not. Chnages what I meant entirely. I do not think that we are ALL set with Middlebrooks.

    My point is either play Middlebrooks or trade him altogether, I favor the latter option.

    Fair enough. Sorry for adding the "all".

    Similar to my argument last year with respect to Iggy, I would rather have the SS and 3rd positions fielded by SS quality defenders for purposes of an effective shift. I advocated for Iggy at short and Bogy at 3rd. As I said in another post, I was happy with Drew although I admit to doubting him from the beginning of the season.

    Same here.

    I would be happier with an infield of Naps/Carp - Pedey - Drew - Bogy than I would with Naps/Carp - Pedey - Bogy - Middlebrooks.


    I do not agree with others that Middlebrooks at first is a good option. He did not lose his job at 3rd because of his glove, so why should his bat be better at 1st?

    I'm not handing him the 1B job either. My point is about Bogey. Bogey will be handed some job next year, and I'd rather have it be 3B than SS, so I am going from that point forward. That leaves three choices:

    1) Trade Middy

    2) Make Middy the back-up 3B/1B/DH and indirectly SS as Bogey can slide to SS if our SS gets hurt.

    3) Give Middy a shot to win the 1B job vs Carp, Nava & Papi by not signing Naps.

    (I guess a 4th option, which I mentioned last winter could be to move Bogey to 1B, but that has about a zero% shot.)

    If Naps and Drew pass on offers, then I would have to think about a 1st/3rd solution as I do not think that Middlebrooks is a long-term solution.

    Middy may turn out to be our longterm 1B or 3B option, but in no way do I feel comfortable planning on him to be our FT anything next year.

    I also feel we need to look at making our second best power hitter someone other than a 1Bman. Playing in the NL park this World Series shows what happens. I'd like to see us get a guy like Stanton, move Victorino to CF, and maybe keep Drew. Then, we can absorb a decline at 1B with Middy, Carp, Nava and Papi (at NL parks) fighting over 1B PAs. Bogey will learn 3B quickly and be about as good as Middy in no time (IMO).

    [/QUOTE]


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    That leaves three choices:

    1) Trade Middy

    2) Make Middy the back-up 3B/1B/DH and indirectly SS as Bogey can slide to SS if our SS gets hurt.

    3) Give Middy a shot to win the 1B job vs Carp, Nava & Papi by not signing Naps.

    (I guess a 4th option, which I mentioned last winter could be to move Bogey to 1B, but that has about a zero% shot.)


    I would still pick option 1, or to a lesser extent, option 3. My concern with Middy is that he lost his job the first time because he lost interest and focus. Simple as that. At MLB level, that is a serious problem.

    If Naps and Drew pass on offers, then I would have to think about a 1st/3rd solution as I do not think that Middlebrooks is a long-term solution.

    Middy may turn out to be our longterm 1B or 3B option, but in no way do I feel comfortable planning on him to be our FT anything next year.

    I also feel we need to look at making our second best power hitter someone other than a 1Bman. Playing in the NL park this World Series shows what happens. I'd like to see us get a guy like Stanton, move Victorino to CF, and maybe keep Drew. Then, we can absorb a decline at 1B with Middy, Carp, Nava and Papi (at NL parks) fighting over 1B PAs. Bogey will learn 3B quickly and be about as good as Middy in no time (IMO).


    Player A: GP 116 , AB  425, WAR 2.4, Ave .249, OPS .845

    Player B: GP 134, AB 458, WAR 2.9, Ave .303, OPS .831

    Player C: GP 145, AB  554, WAR 2.4, Ave  .296, OPS .830

     

    Player A is Stanton. Young, hits for power, but definitely had a "down" year for him with injuries, yet is expected a big payday this year and in coming years through arb.

    Player B is Nava. Early 30's, switch-hitter, exceptional year, very affordable in the short term.

    Player C is Beltran. Switch-hitter, similar power numbers in 2013 to Stanton, but obviously much older. I like him on a two-year contract, but do you pay the draft pick? (No way the Cardinals don't give him a QO)

    I have to agree about Drew as well in the circumstances you present. Middy is the odd man out.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to 808soxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    That leaves three choices:

    1) Trade Middy

    2) Make Middy the back-up 3B/1B/DH and indirectly SS as Bogey can slide to SS if our SS gets hurt.

    3) Give Middy a shot to win the 1B job vs Carp, Nava & Papi by not signing Naps.

    (I guess a 4th option, which I mentioned last winter could be to move Bogey to 1B, but that has about a zero% shot.)


    I would still pick option 1, or to a lesser extent, option 3. My concern with Middy is that he lost his job the first time because he lost interest and focus. Simple as that. At MLB level, that is a serious problem.

    If Naps and Drew pass on offers, then I would have to think about a 1st/3rd solution as I do not think that Middlebrooks is a long-term solution.

    Middy may turn out to be our longterm 1B or 3B option, but in no way do I feel comfortable planning on him to be our FT anything next year.

    I also feel we need to look at making our second best power hitter someone other than a 1Bman. Playing in the NL park this World Series shows what happens. I'd like to see us get a guy like Stanton, move Victorino to CF, and maybe keep Drew. Then, we can absorb a decline at 1B with Middy, Carp, Nava and Papi (at NL parks) fighting over 1B PAs. Bogey will learn 3B quickly and be about as good as Middy in no time (IMO).


    Player A: GP 116 , AB  425, WAR 2.4, Ave .249, OPS .845

    Player B: GP 134, AB 458, WAR 2.9, Ave .303, OPS .831

    Player C: GP 145, AB  554, WAR 2.4, Ave  .296, OPS .830

     

    Player A is Stanton. Young, hits for power, but definitely had a "down" year for him with injuries, yet is expected a big payday this year and in coming years through arb.

    Player B is Nava. Early 30's, switch-hitter, exceptional year, very affordable in the short term.

    Player C is Beltran. Switch-hitter, similar power numbers in 2013 to Stanton, but obviously much older. I like him on a two-year contract, but do you pay the draft pick? (No way the Cardinals don't give him a QO)

    I have to agree about Drew as well in the circumstances you present. Middy is the odd man out.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I love Nava as our LF'er and emergency 1Bman, but not as our 5 slot hitter.

    1) He's only a force vs RHPs, and while Gomes can platoon vs LHPs, they make a better tandem from the 6th or 7th slot than behind Papi.

    2) I really like Stanton, but think he will cost too much to be worth it. I just mentioned his name, because he seems to be available.

    3) We won a ring without a "Manny" hitting behind him, so who am I to say we "need to get a big bat who doesn't play 1B" or else?

    I think we all realized we had a chink in the armour when in the NL parks, but building a team to win the AL pennant is more important than planning on what to do specifically in next year's WS.

    notin may be right about trading Middy for a catcher like Conger. Then, if we sign Napoli and Drew, the bogey situation works itself out. We'll still probably get a very capable but inexpensive left-side utility IF'er (defensively anyways) to bring insurance.

    That leaves the OF hole cause by Ellsbury's impending departure. I'd like to get Choo to play RF and leadoff, but that still leaves that 5 slot big bopper need unanswered. I think we can all agree, we'd have a better shot if we brought back last year's team minus Ellsbury, but plus Choo (CF/RF) and a guy like Stanton (LF?). I know, that squeezes out Nava and Gomes, but if we can get a good return in trade for one of them, then it's got to be something to consider.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    1) I'd offer Ellsbury $75M/5. He will walk. We get a draft pick.

    (I'd make a play for Choo next , but would not pay what I think he will get.)

    Maybe we end up with DeJesus or Beltran as bridges to the kids.

     

    2) Next, I offer Napoli a $26M/2 year deal with PA incentives that can bring him to $30M/2. #rd year team option of $13M with $2M in PA incentives and a $2.5M buyout. Essentially, his deal is $28.5M/2 (meets QO criteria) or $39M/3 with incentives.

     

    3) If Napoli accepts his offer, I do not offer Drew a QO contract, unless I am very sure he will decline it. If Napoli declines the offer, I'd offer Drew something similar to Napoli's deal. I'd try and find a great inexpensive defensive SS as out utility IF'er.

     

    4) I'd offer Salty $33M/3 with a club option 4th year at $10M with a $1M buyout. Essentially, it's a $34M/3 deal. If he says no, I'd offer him the minimum 1 year QO and see what happens.

     

    5) If Salty declines, I'd look for a 1 year bridge to Vazquez, Lava, Swihart, Denny. I would not go after McCann.

     

    6) I'd try hard to get RP Mujica.

     

    I'd like to see this team for 2014:

    C: Salty/Ross

    1B: Napoli/Carp (Middy/Papi/Nava)

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Middy (Bogey)

    SS: Bogey/ B Ryan

    LF: Nava/Gomes (Carp)

    CF: Victorino/JBJ

    RF: Beltran (Victorino/Nava)

    SP: Lester, Buch, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Dempster (Morales) 

    RP: Uehara, Breslow, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Workman (Bailey)

    [/QUOTE]


    Please no more (HEAD CASE ) Peavy. We can do better then that. Also Dempster must go. Id take Workman over Peavy.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Please no more (HEAD CASE ) Peavy. We can do better then that. Also Dempster must go. Id take Workman over Peavy.

    I doubt we dump Peavy and Dempster.

    I could see trading Dempster this winter and maybe Peavy at the deadline, once we know for sure one of our kids is ML ready to be a starter.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    My choices:

    CF--Victorino or Granderson, Chris Young

    RF--Beltran, Granderson or Young( Sign one of these three)

    C--Keep Ross--Big Money to the most important player avaailable, McCann. OR sign AJ or  Brayan Pena to platoon with Ross.

    SS---Brandan Ryan or Drew--Both are very good defenders-Drew's a better stick-Ryan better bunter

    1 B---Loney #1 Choice--Morales--Reynolds/Carp/Nava or Youk/Carp/Nava would work.

    My suggestion: Trade Gomes while he's hot , WMB , Bailey. Trade  Doubrount for Trumbo or some potential big stick.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Marioguy424. Show Marioguy424's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

     Why do all of you want to dump Middlebrooks? Quite frankly, I think it's hasty to trade an up-and-coming player due to one bad year. This is what I'd do:

    1: Offer Ellsbury 5/75 before free agency opens up, and if someone outoffers that (which they will), continue bidding up to 6/100. If he accepts that, great. If not, take the pick, and either:

    A: Attempt a trade for Stanton (this would be rather unlikely, but we may as well give it a shot). If we get him, we put Stanton in right and Victorino in center, where he belongs in the first place.

    B: Assuming the Stanton thing doesn't happen, we sign Beltran to a two-year deal. We have the capacity to out-bid St. Louis, and the pick we give them for Beltran would be made up for by the pick we get for Ells. Like with Stanton, we put Beltran in right (he is no longer capable of playing center, in my opinion) and Vic in center.

    2: Give Stephen Drew the minimum qualifying offer (I admit, I don't know what that is). He will walk, but I'm not sure if we'd get a pick for him. Can somebody help me on this?

    3: Give Napoli 2/26 with an option that extends it to 3/39, and incentives that can knock up the deal to 3/42 total. He'd sign with us unless somebody blew that out of the water (he took a deal from us last year even though his own team, the Rangers, gave him the same offer), and no one will.

    4: SIGN SALTY. This might be the most important part of the offseason. Give him 3/33, 3/37 or something like that, but BE SURE TO SIGN HIM. Seriously- if Ells walks, there's Beltran on the free agent market and Stanton on the trade market. If Drew walks (which I hope he does), we put Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third. If Napoli walks, we can keep Drew, put Bogaerts at third and Middlebrooks at first. But if Salty walks, who can we replace him with? All of the hype about Lavarnway has died down. McCann would cost a fortune, and none of the other free agent catchers are any good. No team with a half-decent catcher will trade us their catcher for anything less than a king's ransom. We need Salty, and I'm shocked that they haven't given him a QO yet.

     This would be my ideal 2014 team (backups in parenthases):

    C: Salty (Ross)
    1B: Napoli (Carp)

    2B: Pedroia (Ryan)

    3B: Middlebrooks (Bogaerts, Ryan plays short)

    SS: Bogaerts (Ryan)

    LF: Nava (Gomes, splits platoon)

    CF and RF: Best case scenario:

    CF: Ellsbury (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Victorino (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    CF and RF: Ells walks, case #1:

    CF: Victorino (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Stanton (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    CF and RF: Ells walks, case #2:

    CF: Victorino (Beltran, Nava plays right, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Beltran (Nava, Gomes plays left)
    DH: Ortiz (Duh!)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    Why do all of you want to dump Middlebrooks? Quite frankly, I think it's hasty to trade an up-and-coming player due to one bad year.

    1) Despite the hoopla about his great fielding on the farm, he has been a net minus in the bigs on defense so far (20th out of 29 3Bmen at -3.1 UZR/150 since 2012).

    2) The Sox value OBP and working the count. Middy had just a .320 OBP in AAA and .332 overall on the farm. He may improve on his .294 MLB OBP, but I seriously doubt he ever gets it up over .320 or .330. He'd have to hit 40 HRs and lots of doubles to make up for his low OB skills.

    3) We have a glut of young 3Bmen with Bogey and Cecchini and maybe even Betts who is blocked at 2B for a long time.

    I would not trade Middy just for the sake of trading him, but I do think some team will give something very useful to get him... something we need more than another 3Bman.

     

    This is what I'd do:

    1: Offer Ellsbury 5/75 before free agency opens up, and if someone outoffers that (which they will), continue bidding up to 6/100. If he accepts that, great.

    $75/5 might insult Jacoby to the point where he walks to another team who bids the same as out final offer.

    I would not go $100/6 for a guy who placed 9th in team OPS this year (7th if you take out nonqualifiers, but just .010 from being 10th behind everyone on the team except Middlebrooks!

    If not, take the pick, and either:

    A: Attempt a trade for Stanton (this would be rather unlikely, but we may as well give it a shot). If we get him, we put Stanton in right and Victorino in center, where he belongs in the first place.

    Shane is pretty fragile, but at least we have JBJ to back him up.

     

    B: Assuming the Stanton thing doesn't happen, we sign Beltran to a two-year deal. We have the capacity to out-bid St. Louis, and the pick we give them for Beltran would be made up for by the pick we get for Ells. Like with Stanton, we put Beltran in right (he is no longer capable of playing center, in my opinion) and Vic in center.

    I like Beltran too, as a bridge to who knows who.

     

    2: Give Stephen Drew the minimum qualifying offer (I admit, I don't know what that is). He will walk, but I'm not sure if we'd get a pick for him. Can somebody help me on this?

    It should be about $14.1M/1 year. He will almost surely say no and sign a longer term deal for $12-23M per year x 3-5 years. There are only 2 big FA SS out there this winter: Drew & Peralta.

     

    3: Give Napoli 2/26 with an option that extends it to 3/39, and incentives that can knock up the deal to 3/42 total. He'd sign with us unless somebody blew that out of the water (he took a deal from us last year even though his own team, the Rangers, gave him the same offer), and no one will.

    I'd give him PA incentives that could bring him to $15M/yr. 

     

    4: SIGN SALTY. This might be the most important part of the offseason. Give him 3/33, 3/37 or something like that, but BE SURE TO SIGN HIM. Seriously- if Ells walks, there's Beltran on the free agent market and Stanton on the trade market. If Drew walks (which I hope he does), we put Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third. If Napoli walks, we can keep Drew, put Bogaerts at third and Middlebrooks at first. But if Salty walks, who can we replace him with? All of the hype about Lavarnway has died down. McCann would cost a fortune, and none of the other free agent catchers are any good. No team with a half-decent catcher will trade us their catcher for anything less than a king's ransom. We need Salty, and I'm shocked that they haven't given him a QO yet.

    I do think we keep Napoli or Drew, but probably not both, unless we deal Middy.

     

     This would be my ideal 2014 team (backups in parenthases):

    C: Salty (Ross)
    1B: Napoli (Carp)

    2B: Pedroia (Ryan)

    3B: Middlebrooks (Bogaerts, Ryan plays short)

    SS: Bogaerts (Ryan)

    LF: Nava (Gomes, splits platoon)

    CF and RF: Best case scenario:

    CF: Ellsbury (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Victorino (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    CF and RF: Ells walks, case #1:

    CF: Victorino (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Stanton (Nava, Gomes plays left)

    CF and RF: Ells walks, case #2:

    CF: Victorino (Beltran, Nava plays right, Gomes plays left)

    RF: Beltran (Nava, Gomes plays left)
    DH: Ortiz (Duh!)

     

    I like the idea of our RF'er, not our 1Bman, batting 5th behind Papi. That way, when we play in an NL park, our line-up is still strong. Napoli 6th is very nice.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    MLBtraderumors top 50 FA list:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/2014-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions-1.html

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........

    [/QUOTE]

    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

     

    My co-workers and I were guessing where Ellsbury will land.

    I picked Seattle.  I think Seattle will throw a lot of money and years at him.  

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........

    [/QUOTE]

    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

    [/QUOTE]


    So you'd rather rely on Peavy, Buchholtz and Dempster as your 3-5 guys?  How much weight did these guys really have this Oct?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to MadMc1944's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    My choices:

    CF--Victorino or Granderson, Chris Young

    RF--Beltran, Granderson or Young( Sign one of these three)

    C--Keep Ross--Big Money to the most important player avaailable, McCann. OR sign AJ or  Brayan Pena to platoon with Ross.

    SS---Brandan Ryan or Drew--Both are very good defenders-Drew's a better stick-Ryan better bunter

    1 B---Loney #1 Choice--Morales--Reynolds/Carp/Nava or Youk/Carp/Nava would work.

    My suggestion: Trade Gomes while he's hot , WMB , Bailey. Trade  Doubrount for Trumbo or some potential big stick.

    [/QUOTE]

    Riught now you are making the line up into a heavily lefties line up.

    Boston need a couple good right handed hitter protecting Papi.  Meaning, Ben C will look for a right handed power hitter hitting behind Papi whether it is Napoli or someone else!@

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........



    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

    [/QUOTE]


    So you'd rather rely on Peavy, Buchholtz and Dempster as your 3-5 guys?  How much weight did these guys really have this Oct?

    [/QUOTE]


    Buchholz delivered 4 of the most important innings of the year when he shut down the Cards in Game 4.  Completely switched the momentum that the Cards had built up after games 2 and 3.  That being said, I do have concerns about his shoulder.  The velocity drop off in the postseason was alarming; despite the internet tough guys, that tells me he is/was hurt.  When healthy, he has the best stuff on the staff, so the real question for him is how badly is he hurt?

     

    Depending on Buchholz's health, Doubront should slide into the 3-4 slot with Peavy as the 4-5.  Doubront may have been the best guy on the staff from June-August.  Dempster will not be a starter next season; he will be traded or be a 7th inning type (albeit an expensive one).  I would look for Workman or maybe Webster in the #5 if Buchholz falters.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Take anything Heyman writes with a grain of salt; he's Boras' PR director. Napoli's QO is a no-brainer, so that is not breaking news. The other two, Ells and Drew, are Boras clients, hence Heyman listing those three.

    [/QUOTE]

    Heyman was right.  I know he's with Boras, but he's usually a credible source.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    I'd like to see us land Mujica.

    Workman will be in the pen all year.

    Doubront or Dempster may be as well.

    Britton or de la Rosa could help.

    Wilson, Miller, Morales and Bailey could all be healthy and some be helpful.

    The big 3 return: Uehara, Breslow, and Tazawa

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    My co-workers and I were guessing where Ellsbury will land.

    I picked Seattle.  I think Seattle will throw a lot of money and years at him.  

    Mariner fans are clamoring for Jacoby Ellsbury just as they clamored for Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder and Barry Zito when the latter three were free agents. The absolute top free agents rarely represent good investments because of the costly long-term contracts the elite free agents command.

    The 30-year-old Ellsbury might be a good fit for a team that intends to contend in 2014 and thinks the overall investment for immediate returns is worth the likely lost value in the last years of the contract. The Red Sox might be that team.

    Ellsbury would look good in a Seattle lineup in 2014 and the year after, but the Mariners might not be close to contending in those years and later would be saddled with Ellsbury's contract as his production enters a likely decline.

    Ellsbury this year and Chone Figgins in 2009 entered free agency with six years of MLB service with Ellsbury posting 23.7 WAR* and Figgins 22.0 WAR. Here are Ellsbury's career numbers and Figgins' numbers through the 2009 season:

    JE 715 G, 3204 PA, .297/.350/.439/.789, 241 SB, OPS+ 108

    CF 936 G, 4075 PA, .291/.363/.388/.751, 280 SB, OPS+ 99

    And the numbers for the season preceding the entry of Ellsbury and Figgins into free agency:

    JE 2013 134 G, 636 PA, .298/.355/.426/.781, 52 SB, OPS+ 114, wRC+** 113, 5.8 WAR

    CF 2009 158 G, 729 PA, .298/.395/.393/.789, 54 SB, OPS+ 110, wRC+ 116, 6.6 WAR

    Ellsbury currently is a year and a half younger than Figgins was when the latter entered free agency.

    The numbers suggest that Ellsbury and Figgins have/had similar skillsets. The Mariners signed Figgins for four years and $36 million, but Ellsbury certainly is looking for far more than than.

    The WAR conversion indeed has Ellsbury valued at $109 million in the six-plus seasons from ages 23 to 30. Will a team gamble that Ellsbury will yield a similar return over the next six seasons as he approaches his 36th birthday? Even so, Ellsbury reportedly is seeking an average annual salary that exceeds his annual yield-to-date of about $18 million.

    For those reasons, Ellsbury is not a good fit for the Mariners.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

    ** Runs per PA scaled where 100 is average; both league and park adjusted; based on wOBA, as reported at FanGraphs

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxFanInIL. Show SoxFanInIL's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to illinoisredsox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     That being said, I do have concerns about his shoulder.  The velocity drop off in the postseason was alarming; despite the internet tough guys, that tells me he is/was hurt.  When healthy, he has the best stuff on the staff, so the real question for him is how badly is he hurt?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    What do constant references to "internet tough guys" have to do with the fact that Bucch IS HURT ALL THE TIME?"

    No one is calling him a flower that wont play hurt, like Drew. They are calling him a glass vase, kinda like Ellsbury without the collisions.

    Not hurt/no play, always hurt/ no play... doesn't matter. Still not playing.

     

    And why are there still people who consider JBJ a viable replacement for Ellsbury?  He's proven NOTHING and given ZERO indication he will any time soon.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from illinoisredsox. Show illinoisredsox's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to SoxFanInIL's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to illinoisredsox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     That being said, I do have concerns about his shoulder.  The velocity drop off in the postseason was alarming; despite the internet tough guys, that tells me he is/was hurt.  When healthy, he has the best stuff on the staff, so the real question for him is how badly is he hurt?

     

    [/QUOTE]

     




    What do constant references to "internet tough guys" have to do with the fact that Bucch IS HURT ALL THE TIME?"

    No one is calling him a flower that wont play hurt, like Drew. They are calling him a glass vase, kinda like Ellsbury without the collisions.

    Not hurt/no play, always hurt/ no play... doesn't matter. Still not playing.

     

    And why are there still people who consider JBJ a viable replacement for Ellsbury?  He's proven NOTHING and given ZERO indication he will any time soon.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I object to calling him a joke.  The "internet tough guys" thought he was goldbricking all summer and that even if he wasn't 100%, he should just go out there and risk all.  Had they had their way, he would have been done for the season (and possibly career) in June.  The initial story of sleeping on it wrong didn't help, but I think he hurt it when he came back from that stiffness and fell awkwardly on his shoulder when fielding a chopper near the 1st baseline.  That seemed to be the real start of his shoulder issues.  The tough guys never looked past the sleeping story.

     

    He may never be able to complete a full year.  His build is of no help to him there.  Until he can do it a couple of times, he's not going to get a big payday.  No, the Red Sox can't rely on him for a full season.  But given his raw stuff, he is going to be a part of the rotation and his history means the Sox have to keep a viable 6th starter around.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........

    [/QUOTE]

    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

    [/QUOTE]


    So you'd rather rely on Peavy, Buchholtz and Dempster as your 3-5 guys?  How much weight did these guys really have this Oct?

    [/QUOTE]

    They carried enough weight to win a World Series.

     

    The Sox won in 2007 with Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield and 40yo Curt Schilling in the rotation.   They can start the year with the 6 on the roster (someone will likely be hurt) and will get contributions from Ranaudo, Webste, Bsrnes and/or Owens at some point.

     

    The silly thing to do is needlessly overspend for the luxury of having all stars everywhere.

     

    Also, you forgot Doubront and Workman as 3-4-5 candidates...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........



    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

    [/QUOTE]


    So you'd rather rely on Peavy, Buchholtz and Dempster as your 3-5 guys?  How much weight did these guys really have this Oct?

    [/QUOTE]

    They carried enough weight to win a World Series.

     

    The Sox won in 2007 with Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield and 40yo Curt Schilling in the rotation.   They can start the year with the 6 on the roster (someone will likely be hurt) and will get contributions from Ranaudo, Webste, Bsrnes and/or Owens at some point.

     

    The silly thing to do is needlessly overspend for the luxury of having all stars everywhere.

     

    Also, you forgot Doubront and Workman as 3-4-5 candidates...

    [/QUOTE]


    I didn't forget Doubrant and if you put Workman in the rotation you lose him in the pen

    1 - Lester

    2 - Lackey

    3 - ?

    4 - ?

    5 - Doubrant

    I'll live w/ Peavy in the 4 hole, I don't want to see Dempster in the rotation, and I prefer to keep Workman in the pen.  that means we need a starter and a quality starter at that......A lot of things went right for us 2013, I wouldn't count on Lackey having as good a year.  And in a 7 game series you only need 2 QS's.....Note that I didn't even consider Buck because he can not be relied on for a single start - ever.  They are light on SP.....Period.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money


    Lackey is always consistent.......except for the pre injury time. Lackey will have a solid year. He consistently sits at a 3.00 ERA

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm surprised this thread hasn't focused more on pitching


    We need another quality reliever....I am not comfortable w/ Koji again; remember what happened to Oki?

    We also need 2 starters.  Lester and Lackey proved to be enough in a short series.  But after that, who do you have you can count on?  Buck?  He's a joke.  Peavy?  Ditto.  Doubrant?  Hopefully.......Dempster?  Yeah right.......We need 2 quality starters........

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Didn't the Sox just win a World Series with all these guys you are now writing off?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    So you'd rather rely on Peavy, Buchholtz and Dempster as your 3-5 guys?  How much weight did these guys really have this Oct?

    [/QUOTE]

    They carried enough weight to win a World Series.

     

    The Sox won in 2007 with Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield and 40yo Curt Schilling in the rotation.   They can start the year with the 6 on the roster (someone will likely be hurt) and will get contributions from Ranaudo, Webste, Bsrnes and/or Owens at some point.

     

    The silly thing to do is needlessly overspend for the luxury of having all stars everywhere.

     

    Also, you forgot Doubront and Workman as 3-4-5 candidates...

    [/QUOTE]


    I didn't forget Doubrant and if you put Workman in the rotation you lose him in the pen

    1 - Lester

    2 - Lackey

    3 - ?

    4 - ?

    5 - Doubrant

    I'll live w/ Peavy in the 4 hole, I don't want to see Dempster in the rotation, and I prefer to keep Workman in the pen.  that means we need a starter and a quality starter at that......A lot of things went right for us 2013, I wouldn't count on Lackey having as good a year.  And in a 7 game series you only need 2 QS's.....Note that I didn't even consider Buck because he can not be relied on for a single start - ever.  They are light on SP.....Period.

    [/QUOTE]

    You undervalue Dempster, who is under contract next year amd has outpitched your proposed target Roy Halladay now for two years running.

     

    You also greatly exaggerate the health issues surrounding Buchholz.  Also the Sox do have depth st the farm level, where they need it.

     

    They also undoubtedly have more faith in these guys than you, hence their contracts.

     

    The Sox will probably do some due diligence on SP this offseason, but it will probably not be a top priority.   Its nit so simple as filling out a bunch of forms to upgrade SP.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Free Agents, years and money


    Thank you Hill55 for your feedback!!!   Laughing

    My co-workers and I were comparing Choo to Ellsbury.

    A few facts about Choo.

    • Made only four errors with a .989 fielding percentage this year.
    • Led the majors with 116 walks
    • In 151 games, he batted .285 with 21 HRs, 54 RBIs and scored 107 runs.

    The true winner here is Scott Boras.   LOL

     
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