Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid


    Here's baseball's top paid pitchers this season:


    Greinke - 26 - Dodgers


    Cliff Lee - 25 - Phillies


    Hamels - 23.5 - Phillies


    Sabathia - 23 - NYY


    The King - 22.8 - Mariners


    Tanaka - 22 - NYY


    Cain - 20.8 - Giants


    Verlander - 20 - Tigers


    Wainright, Buehrle, Beckett, Lincecum are the next 4.


    The only guys worth the money on this list are younger than Lester, or are about the same age, but have been consistently better.


    Overall, paying guys these contracts DOES NOT WORK!


    NO TO FREE AGENTS IN THEIR 30s!!! At least when you're talking 5 years or more.


    Oh. I forgot, "Well, you have to pay a premium for the first few years and you know you're overpaying on the back end. That's how it is." How many times did I hear that when arguing against Carl Crawford? How'd that work out. Great line of reasoning.


    Also, 25 a year is NOT the "going rate" as many seem to think. That makes him tied for the SECOND HIGHEST IN THE MAJORS! Is Lester the 2nd best Starter in MLB? Does anyone REALLY want to make that case?


    IFFFFFFFFF you are calling Lester an "Ace" (which I don't think he is), the "Going Rate" would be more like 20-22. The 4/70 was NOT an insult. It was a below market, team-friendly, "Hometown discount" type of deal. Kind of almost practically EXACTLY what Lester hinted at, publicly, all by himself.


    Those 6 top contracts above belong to 4 teams - Angels, Yankees, Mariners, Phillies. Anyone want their rosters? Their salary situations going forward? Their playoff hopes both in the immediate and future? You can make a case for the Yankees...they have proven a willingness to spend more money than almost any other 2 teams combined, and it puts them in an entirely unique financial situation.


    Off that list right now, I would take only TWO of those players with their contracts - The King and Tanaka. 


    Lester has done some great things in Boston. He also has had some inconsistencies and questionable attitude issues (sunflower seeds in the coaches face anyone? Remember his definition of an 'ace'? He was Beckett's #1 pal when Beckett was at his douchiest). On top of all of that...he'll be 30 when next season starts. It is what it is. You don't give 30 year old guys long contracts. You don't do it. It's not a good idea. It's never been a good idea. People need to get over their affection for professional athletes. Lester has done a LOT in Boston. He is OWED nothing. He has EARNED a nice payday. To OVERPAY is a large part of any recipe for team disaster. 25 a year is overpaying. 22.5 would be. 5/100 is pushing it for me. That is the absolute maximum I would ever consider, and I'm not sure I would do that. Perhaps 4/80, but I'm not interested in giving many 35 year old pitchers 20mil for a season.


    I don't get wanting to give Lackey any extra money either. Was he worth the 5/82.5?


    2010 - Pretty good. About equal to what he's doing now.


    2011 - Below average. Attitude was atrocious. 2011 was horrible overall and he was a part of the problems.


    2012 - Gone due to injury, afford him some slack from 2011 in retrospect.


    2013 - Very nice year. His win total was a joke, he was a solid #2 on pretty much any team in baseball.


    2014 - Pretty good again. Solid. He's a good 2 right now. Not spectacular by any means. A 3 on a top team with a good staff.


    He was overpaid over the life of his contract. He should honor what he signed. I remember WHEN they signed him I basically thought "17.5 a year for HIM!? His IS the best pitcher on the market, wow." That was the year after the Yankees took the best pitcher off the market, Sabathia, and 'stole' Texeira. Also got the 2nd best pitcher off the market. AJ Burnett...and gave him an oddly familiar deal of 5/82.5. Gotta love the marketing machine. Lucchino sure does. Reactionary overpay.


    Bad contracts, whether in-house or across the league, shouldn't be justification for more bad contracts. That's insane. Literally. "Keep trying! It will work THIS time!"..."THIS time!"..."THIS TIME!!!"..."Seriously though....THIS is TRULY. THE. TIME!!!!"


     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to ma6dragon9's comment:


    Here's baseball's top paid pitchers this season:

     

    Greinke - 26 - Dodgers

     

    Cliff Lee - 25 - Phillies

     

    Hamels - 23.5 - Phillies

     

    Sabathia - 23 - NYY

     

    The King - 22.8 - Mariners

     

    Tanaka - 22 - NYY

     

    Cain - 20.8 - Giants

     

    Verlander - 20 - Tigers

     

    Wainright, Buehrle, Beckett, Lincecum are the next 4.

     

    The only guys worth the money on this list are younger than Lester, or are about the same age, but have been consistently better.

     

    Overall, paying guys these contracts DOES NOT WORK!

     

    NO TO FREE AGENTS IN THEIR 30s!!! At least when you're talking 5 years or more.

     

    Oh. I forgot, "Well, you have to pay a premium for the first few years and you know you're overpaying on the back end. That's how it is." How many times did I hear that when arguing against Carl Crawford? How'd that work out. Great line of reasoning.

     

    Also, 25 a year is NOT the "going rate" as many seem to think. That makes him tied for the SECOND HIGHEST IN THE MAJORS! Is Lester the 2nd best Starter in MLB? Does anyone REALLY want to make that case?

     

    IFFFFFFFFF you are calling Lester an "Ace" (which I don't think he is), the "Going Rate" would be more like 20-22. The 4/70 was NOT an insult. It was a below market, team-friendly, "Hometown discount" type of deal. Kind of almost practically EXACTLY what Lester hinted at, publicly, all by himself.

     

    Those 6 top contracts above belong to 4 teams - Angels, Yankees, Mariners, Phillies. Anyone want their rosters? Their salary situations going forward? Their playoff hopes both in the immediate and future? You can make a case for the Yankees...they have proven a willingness to spend more money than almost any other 2 teams combined, and it puts them in an entirely unique financial situation.

     

    Off that list right now, I would take only TWO of those players with their contracts - The King and Tanaka. 

     

    Lester has done some great things in Boston. He also has had some inconsistencies and questionable attitude issues (sunflower seeds in the coaches face anyone? Remember his definition of an 'ace'? He was Beckett's #1 pal when Beckett was at his douchiest). On top of all of that...he'll be 30 when next season starts. It is what it is. You don't give 30 year old guys long contracts. You don't do it. It's not a good idea. It's never been a good idea. People need to get over their affection for professional athletes. Lester has done a LOT in Boston. He is OWED nothing. He has EARNED a nice payday. To OVERPAY is a large part of any recipe for team disaster. 25 a year is overpaying. 22.5 would be. 5/100 is pushing it for me. That is the absolute maximum I would ever consider, and I'm not sure I would do that. Perhaps 4/80, but I'm not interested in giving many 35 year old pitchers 20mil for a season.

     

    I don't get wanting to give Lackey any extra money either. Was he worth the 5/82.5?

     

    2010 - Pretty good. About equal to what he's doing now.

     

    2011 - Below average. Attitude was atrocious. 2011 was horrible overall and he was a part of the problems.

     

    2012 - Gone due to injury, afford him some slack from 2011 in retrospect.

     

    2013 - Very nice year. His win total was a joke, he was a solid #2 on pretty much any team in baseball.

     

    2014 - Pretty good again. Solid. He's a good 2 right now. Not spectacular by any means. A 3 on a top team with a good staff.

     

    He was overpaid over the life of his contract. He should honor what he signed. I remember WHEN they signed him I basically thought "17.5 a year for HIM!? His IS the best pitcher on the market, wow." That was the year after the Yankees took the best pitcher off the market, Sabathia, and 'stole' Texeira. Also got the 2nd best pitcher off the market. AJ Burnett...and gave him an oddly familiar deal of 5/82.5. Gotta love the marketing machine. Lucchino sure does. Reactionary overpay.

     

    Bad contracts, whether in-house or across the league, shouldn't be justification for more bad contracts. That's insane. Literally. "Keep trying! It will work THIS time!"..."THIS time!"..."THIS TIME!!!"..."Seriously though....THIS is TRULY. THE. TIME!!!!"

     

     



    Would that reflect the 'hometown discount?'

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    i would consider a QO TO BE 5/90. If he refuses, just say "don't let the door hit your azz on the way out."

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    I don't see many people arguing he should get $25 million per year, which would put him among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball.


    Somewhere in the range of $20-22 million x 5 years (6 on the high end) is more reasonable, I think...you can argue that's too much, or you can argue it's not nearly enough. If he hits the open market, someone will give him much more.


    It's not an easy question. I hope he will be back, but more and more I'm getting the feeling that he won't.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    I think the SOX should offer Lester the 90 million before the trade deadline and notify him this is as high as we go. If Lester refuses, the SOX still have the option to trade him. Or they can let him walk and get a high draft pick.


    Personally, as you can tell, I don't care if Lester stays or goes. Ok, I'd prefer he stays, but I wouldn't offer him more than 90 mil.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    I don't see many people arguing he should get $25 million per year, which would put him among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball.

     

    Somewhere in the range of $20-22 million x 5 years (6 on the high end) is more reasonable, I think...you can argue that's too much, or you can argue it's not nearly enough. If he hits the open market, someone will give him much more.

     

    It's not an easy question. I hope he will be back, but more and more I'm getting the feeling that he won't.




    The 'Many people" I vaguely referenced, and should have explained, are legitimate baseball people. I've mentioned on other posts I listen to a lot of radio while working...not just local hosts, I'm talking people like Buster Olney, who absolutely agrees with the thinking he's going to get 5/125. He was on the radio yesterday or today. A quote from yesterday:

    “I’ve talked to a lot of people, including some in his clubhouse, who believe that at some point the Red Sox had gone to him in spring training and said ‘Look, let’s do a 5-year deal for something in the range of $100-110 million,’ that probably would have gotten done at that point,” Olney said.

    He then goes on tot alk about how it will cost more. Honestly, 5/125 may be low. He's likely getting 6 years if he really hits the market, and 140-150 seems all-but given for 6. You'd be hard pressed ot find a local scribe who thinks he deserves anything less. Loot at how people, almost unanimously refer to the 4/70 as an insult. I can't recall specific names of the "expert" interviews, but the consensus is about 25 a year, 5+ years if he actually hits the market. Sherzer refusing 6/144 is often referenced as a comparable. I think Sherzer is absolutely bat sht crazy. What more is he going to get? 10%? Let someone else pay these egomaniacal fools. Owners need to grow some balls and let these superstar athletes walk. The teams have all been around a lot longer than any individual star, and bowing to them is dumb. It undermines building a successful team.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    I am less concerned with the annual payout than I am about the length of the deal.  Look, obviously the market for premium starting pitching is completely out of control.  But that is what it is.  If they cant get him early for a HT discount, then I dont really have a problem with 25 a year - if it is 5 years.  We go longer than 5 and I get antsy.

         
     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    I am less concerned with the annual payout than I am about the length of the deal.  Look, obviously the market for premium starting pitching is completely out of control.  But that is what it is.  If they cant get him early for a HT discount, then I dont really have a problem with 25 a year - if it is 5 years.  We go longer than 5 and I get antsy.

         

    COGGLINS LAW .......  EVERYTHING COMES TO AN END, AND NEVER ENDS WELL !!!




    COGGLIN? Is that Softy's last name?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:


    I don't see many people arguing he should get $25 million per year, which would put him among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball.


     


    Somewhere in the range of $20-22 million x 5 years (6 on the high end) is more reasonable, I think...you can argue that's too much, or you can argue it's not nearly enough. If he hits the open market, someone will give him much more.


     


    It's not an easy question. I hope he will be back, but more and more I'm getting the feeling that he won't.




    25 MIL/YR for Lester defines the words 'ridiculously obscene.'

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    The 'Many people" I vaguely referenced, and should have explained, are legitimate baseball people. I've mentioned on other posts I listen to a lot of radio while working...not just local hosts, I'm talking people like Buster Olney...

    Got it. I was probably thinking a little too RSN-centric and in terms of what most of us here want to pay. I agree if he reaches the open market some team will offer something crazy and $25m/yr is hardly out of the question.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I am less concerned with the annual payout than I am about the length of the deal.  Look, obviously the market for premium starting pitching is completely out of control.  But that is what it is.  

     

    +  1000

    at this late date sox cannot control the price he gets

    I suppose a lot depends on how comfortable U R with lackey as your ace next yr

    but the  way I C it  no lester = no PO

     

    If they cant get him early for a HT discount, then I dont really have a problem with 25 a year - if it is 5 years.  We go longer than 5 and I get antsy.

     


     

     

     

     

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    Personally, as you can tell, I don't care if Lester stays or goes. Ok, I'd prefer he stays, but I wouldn't offer him more than 90 mil.

    I care if he goes because he's been pretty darn good every year but one (2012), pitches 200 innings every year, and is money in the postseason - exactly the kind of pitcher we want in our rotation. Obviously by extending him for 5-6 years you're taking a risk that he won't continue to do what he's done, but if you're going to open your pockets for a free agent pitcher (within reason), why not him?

    On top of that, if the RS aren't willing to pay for Lester, I can't see them opening the checkbook for Scherzer, Shields, or anyone else who's likely to be on the market in the next year or two...that pretty much limits your options for adding a TOTR starter to a trade or hoping one of the prospects will be able to step up into that role.

    Who's comfortable with a 2015 rotation of Lackey(?), Buchholz(?), Doubront(??), and Workman/DeLaRosa/Webster/Ranaudo/etc.? Even if you reach and assume Owens will be ready, you're still taking a lot of risk there.

    That's not to say give him whatever he wants, just that letting him go is not something to dismiss lightly. IMO, you make one last, strong attempt to retain him (I think the numbers I listed above are fair to Lester while still representing a modest discount over what he'd get on the open market), and if it looks like he's on the way out, deal him at the deadline for as much as you can get.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    Personally, as you can tell, I don't care if Lester stays or goes. Ok, I'd prefer he stays, but I wouldn't offer him more than 90 mil.

    I care if he goes because he's been pretty darn good every year but one (2012), pitches 200 innings every year, and is money in the postseason - exactly the kind of pitcher we want in our rotation. Obviously by extending him for 5-6 years you're taking a risk that he won't continue to do what he's done, but if you're going to open your pockets for a free agent pitcher (within reason), why not him?

    On top of that, if the RS aren't willing to pay for Lester, I can't see them opening the checkbook for Scherzer, Shields, or anyone else who's likely to be on the market in the next year or two...that pretty much limits your options for adding a TOTR starter to a trade or hoping one of the prospects will be able to step up into that role.

    Who's comfortable with a 2015 rotation of Lackey(?), Buchholz(?), Doubront(??), and Workman/DeLaRosa/Webster/Ranaudo/etc.? Even if you reach and assume Owens will be ready, you're still taking a lot of risk there.

    That's not to say give him whatever he wants, just that letting him go is not something to dismiss lightly. IMO, you make one last, strong attempt to retain him (I think the numbers I listed above are fair to Lester while still representing a modest discount over what he'd get on the open market), and if it looks like he's on the way out, deal him at the deadline for as much as you can get.




    Me! I have 0 issues with some combination of that. When Lester first was coming up, even going 7-2, he wasn't this. He grew in to it. The team gave him a chance, stuck with him, and watched him grow. Must be nice when the team stands behind you...can do wonders for your confidence and can make a decent prospect turn into a top 1-2 pitcher on pretty much any ML team. Hm.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to SpacemanEephus's comment:

    I am less concerned with the annual payout than I am about the length of the deal.  Look, obviously the market for premium starting pitching is completely out of control.  But that is what it is.  If they cant get him early for a HT discount, then I dont really have a problem with 25 a year - if it is 5 years.  We go longer than 5 and I get antsy.

         




    I think the "hometown discount" will be the one less year, space, not the annual salary.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    I'm going to be generous but if he balks after that, I'm trading him.

    6/111 and if i have to an incentive based (150+ IP in year 6) for year 7 at 20.  that's 7/131 potential and no hometown discount there.  if anyone wants to pay him more than good luck.

    odds are it ends up being a 5 year deal at 22 per and year 6 is a waste.......5 @ 22 is above fair market value.

     

    if i end up dealing him, then Lester will look like the fool for saying things like "home town discount" and "you'll have to rip this jersey off my back"....

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    Money is the name of the game these days. If the Sox don't pay him, someone else will. Will he be worth it ? Probably not. But he is one of the best pitchers in the game. Will Henry Owens ever be as good? Maybe. Maybe not.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BogieAt12oclock. Show BogieAt12oclock's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:


    I'm going to be generous but if he balks after that, I'm trading him.


    6/111 and if i have to an incentive based (150+ IP in year 6) for year 7 at 20.  that's 7/131 potential and no hometown discount there.  if anyone wants to pay him more than good luck.


    odds are it ends up being a 5 year deal at 22 per and year 6 is a waste.......5 @ 22 is above fair market value.


     


    if i end up dealing him, then Lester will look like the fool for saying things like "home town discount" and "you'll have to rip this jersey off my back"....




    For the right amount of money, most of these mercenaries would pose nude at PET SMART. Saying stupid things just comes with the job.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    I am less concerned with the annual payout than I am about the length of the deal.  Look, obviously the market for premium starting pitching is completely out of control.  But that is what it is.  If they cant get him early for a HT discount, then I dont really have a problem with 25 a year - if it is 5 years.  We go longer than 5 and I get antsy.

         




    exactly - the folks here consistently underestimate the market...and who would be the alternative if we dont? Workman/RDR? 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to BogieAt12oclock's comment:

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

     

     

    I'm going to be generous but if he balks after that, I'm trading him.

     

    6/111 and if i have to an incentive based (150+ IP in year 6) for year 7 at 20.  that's 7/131 potential and no hometown discount there.  if anyone wants to pay him more than good luck.

     

    odds are it ends up being a 5 year deal at 22 per and year 6 is a waste.......5 @ 22 is above fair market value.

     

     

     

    if i end up dealing him, then Lester will look like the fool for saying things like "home town discount" and "you'll have to rip this jersey off my back"....

     

     



    For the right amount of money, most of these mercenaries would pose nude at PET SMART. Saying stupid things just comes with the job.

     




    [object HTMLDivElement]  You mean you wouldn't pose nude at Pet Smart for that much money? I know I would.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    Without knowing more about his shoulder and elbow, I'd have no idea what to offer him.

    But I'd prefer for the RS to either offer something reasonable, like 100/5+, or just give it up.  The $75M/4 was kind of embarrassing from a fan's perspective.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Without knowing more about his shoulder and elbow, I'd have no idea what to offer him.

    But I'd prefer for the RS to either offer something reasonable, like 100/5+, or just give it up.  The $75M/4 was kind of embarrassing from a fan's perspective.

     

    That insult may have tainted the negotiations forever...if you're a player you know that Ells was never seriously courted and you would have to conclude that they feel the same way about you...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Without knowing more about his shoulder and elbow, I'd have no idea what to offer him.

    But I'd prefer for the RS to either offer something reasonable, like 100/5+, or just give it up.  The $75M/4 was kind of embarrassing from a fan's perspective.

     

    That insult may have tainted the negotiations forever...if you're a player you know that Ells was never seriously courted and you would have to conclude that they feel the same way about you...




    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I agree that the lowball hurt the Sox' negotiating position.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Without knowing more about his shoulder and elbow, I'd have no idea what to offer him.

    But I'd prefer for the RS to either offer something reasonable, like 100/5+, or just give it up.  The $75M/4 was kind of embarrassing from a fan's perspective.

     

    That insult may have tainted the negotiations forever...if you're a player you know that Ells was never seriously courted and you would have to conclude that they feel the same way about you...




    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I agree that the lowball hurt the Sox' negotiating position.




    [object HTMLDivElement]  I don't think it helps in the eyes of the other guys on the team either.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Giving Lester 5/125 would be immensely stupid

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Without knowing more about his shoulder and elbow, I'd have no idea what to offer him.

    But I'd prefer for the RS to either offer something reasonable, like 100/5+, or just give it up.  The $75M/4 was kind of embarrassing from a fan's perspective.

     

    That insult may have tainted the negotiations forever...if you're a player you know that Ells was never seriously courted and you would have to conclude that they feel the same way about you...




    [object HTMLDivElement]

    I agree that the lowball hurt the Sox' negotiating position.




    [object HTMLDivElement]  I don't think it helps in the eyes of the other guys on the team either.




    rumor has it, it's negatively effect the entire team's attitude

    even peavy cracked a joke about it to the media

     
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