Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    ........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    Fred Lynn left a long time ago !!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    Elles is Fred Lynn.... lets hope JBJR is far better

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Fred Lynn left a long time ago !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    [/QUOTE]And he wishes today that , that SHIP never sailed !!!!


    [/QUOTE]


    Thats a BINGO !!!!!!!!

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    bad trade for Lynn but anyone looking at his stats will see he is a short-time star. Injuries destroyed his career. Like Elles, could not stay healthy. Had we got better playes in trading Lynn it would have been a great move to send him out.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to eltiante1's comment:

    Elles is Fred Lynn.... lets hope JBJR is far better

    Fred Lynn 6 time ALL-Star in every season with the Red Sox ALMVP in Rookie Season top 25 AL MVP voting 4 times  4 gold gloves with Red Sox  

    Fred Lynn career OPS .845  25 HR  Career 306 Homers 

     

    Please, don't insult Fred Lynn's career by comparing him to someone like Ellsbury. 



    u looking at his stats after 1979?  When he was still only 28 years old he had already become a broken down shadow of his former short-lived glory. 

    More or less the same player, short careers in terms of their best numbers. does it matter which one was technically better?

    After 1979 Fred Lynn was a guy missing from the line-up and leaving a gaping hole in your offense while he was injury-ridden. Undependable!

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    He's referring to the fact that Fred Lynn made the mistake of leaving the Sox, just like Jake is about to do. he's not comparing Ellsbury to Lynn statistically or evben trying to measure his actually ability too play CF because he can't Ells couldn't hold Lynn's jock in either category. Their only common ground is leaving.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    I love JBJ, but we must be realistic and temper our expectations of the kid.

    2012 AA--229 AB-- 271 Avg, 6 HR, 373 OBP, 437 SLG, 809 OPS, 8 SB, 3 CS

    2013 AAA--320 AB-- 275 Avg, 10 HR, 374 OBP, 469 SLG, 842 OPS, 7 SB, 7 CS

    2013 MLB--95 AB-- 189 Avg, 3 HR, 280 OBP, 337 SLG, 617 OPS, 2 SB, 0 CS

     

    Ells career averages

    2912 AB, 65 HR, 297 Avg, 350 OBP, 439 SLG, 789 OPS, 241 SB, 46 CS

     

    Those numbers for Ells might be a little pulled up because of that one freak year he had when he was in the running for league MVP (cough cough enhanced season)... he has never hit more than 10 homers in a season before or after, his slugging never exceedeed his career average of 439 except his rookie year... that's how much of a difference the power season of Ells had on his career numbers.  That said, there is enough of a sample size to see that Ells had better career numbers in the majors than Jackie did in the minors. 

    We can expect a large drop off of production on the base paths as Bradley is a smart base runner like Pedroia as he has good instincts and gets good jumps, but isn't a true base stealing threat.  Ells has game changing speed and a solid career average.  The top side of what we can expect from JBJ in terms of average will be less than the career average for Ells.  That said, JBJ appears to have a better eye and will walk more than Ells with slightly equal to slightly more power (except for Ellsbury's juiced up season).   The freakish 9.1 WAR in Ells enhanced season makes up for the injury seasons and his average WAR is 3.95 per season... or 4 to be modest and is projected to have a 4.2 WAR next year.

    JBJ is projected to have a 252 Avg, 334 OBP, 399 SLG and 0.3 WAR next season (partially due to them only projecting him to get 133 at bats, but that number goes up to about 1.2-1.8 with a full season).  That is a 4 win drop off from what Ells gave us this year.  It is basically in line with what Nava gave us this season.

    So in a nutshell, what people should expect from JBJ is Daniel Nava with better defense... not Ells.  Now that makes for a solid major league player, especially since Bradley has elite defense and a great arm... but people should not expect JBJ to be a player he is not.  He is what he is and his ceiling isn't as high as other prospects but his floor isn't as low either.  He is going to come as a quasi finished product and won't probably improve too too much besides adding a bit of power over time and possibly improve K rates and BB rates.  This will be the equivallent of going from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp... both very good players, but a very clear step down.

     

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to eltiante1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Damon was better than Ellsbury, so let's not get carried away. Ellsbury and Crisp are quite close, with Crisp being the better defender and Ellsbury having a slightly higher OPS and higher steals. 

    That said, there is enough of a sample size to see that Ells had better career numbers in the majors than Jackie did in the minors. 


    Since Ellsbury's career OPS is under .800, and Bradley's OPS was .900 to 1.000 in nearly every minor league stop, except 21 AB's in Lowell in 2011, even an .842 OPS in Pawtucket is higher than Ellsbury's "better career numbers in the majors than Jackie in the minors". 

    Bradley's career minos OPS is .876

    Ellsbury's career minors OPS is .814

    Bradley will have slightly more career power than Ellsbury, but is a 15 to 25 a year base stealer. Bradley has a strong arm and will be a better career defender than Ellsbury. 

    Going forward, Bradley doesn't have to do much but average about 125 games played a year over the next 6 years to provide a better option over those years than 100 million plus tied up in Ellsbury's 30's. 

    Bradley, no matter what he does, will never get the pass that former Red Sox fan favortie Ellsbury gets. But it's an easy call, with Victorino, to move on. When the Red Sox signed Victorinio they already decided that they were not going to play a lot of money for Ellsbury's FA years. Ellsbury's steals will decline and his speed based skillset best years of baseball are on the past. He'll be lucky to put together one outlier season over the upcoming 5 or 6 year contract. 7 years is nothing short of laughable, but so is 5 or 6 years at top dollar. He'll join Crawbust as career non-star albatross contracts for years to come. 

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Hey Softy......tick tock....tick tock...tick tock....tick tock....

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to eltiante1's comment:

     

    Damon was better than Ellsbury, so let's not get carried away. Ellsbury and Crisp are quite close, with Crisp being the better defender and Ellsbury having a slightly higher OPS and higher steals. 

     

     

     

    This is exactly my point that the level of difference between Ells and JBJ next year is about the same drop off as there was between Damon and Coco.  Both are good players but we can expect a drop off next year.  Maybe not as much for years down the line, but certainly for next year while he adjusts to life in the majors.

     

     


    Since Ellsbury's career OPS is under .800, and Bradley's OPS was .900 to 1.000 in nearly every minor league stop, except 21 AB's in Lowell in 2011, even an .842 OPS in Pawtucket is higher than Ellsbury's "better career numbers in the majors than Jackie in the minors". 

    Bradley's career minos OPS is .876

    Ellsbury's career minors OPS is .814

    Bradley will have slightly more career power than Ellsbury, but is a 15 to 25 a year base stealer. Bradley has a strong arm and will be a better career defender than Ellsbury. 

     

     

     

    Last year in the minors Bradley had 7 steals and was caught 7 times.  He has 31 steals and 18 caught stealing in about 1000 at bats in the minors.  His steals will be in line with Pedroia as a good comp as they have similar speed and they steal bases the same way with baseball IQ.... but let's not make him out to be a real base stealing threat.  He is an opportunistic base stealer and smart base runner like Pedroia.  He will never hit 25 steals in a season or come close to it.   

    I agree that Bradley will be a much better defender than Ells and has the arm strength to move over to right if needed so I think he will be much more versatile.  He also has an accurate cannon for an arm similar to Victorino, so that is a definate plus. 

     

     

    Going forward, Bradley doesn't have to do much but average about 125 games played a year over the next 6 years to provide a better option over those years than 100 million plus tied up in Ellsbury's 30's. 

    Bradley, no matter what he does, will never get the pass that former Red Sox fan favortie Ellsbury gets. But it's an easy call, with Victorino, to move on. When the Red Sox signed Victorinio they already decided that they were not going to play a lot of money for Ellsbury's FA years. Ellsbury's steals will decline and his speed based skillset best years of baseball are on the past. He'll be lucky to put together one outlier season over the upcoming 5 or 6 year contract. 7 years is nothing short of laughable, but so is 5 or 6 years at top dollar. He'll join Crawbust as career non-star albatross contracts for years to come. 

     

     



    I don't think Ells will fall off like Crawford did when he signs somewhere else, but it would be silly to think that his contract will be a good value.  That said, Damon signed an over market contract with the Yanks when he left and was older than Ells and played out his contract very well with a similar skill set.  I think if the Yanks lose out on Cano, Ells will end up in pin stripes.  Heck he might even end up there regardless since they are losing out on Granderson and need a replacement.  Even if Ells doesn't live up to the contract numbers, he is still an excellent player and I expect him to give years of quality service to some team. 

     

    I like the Sox stance of standing pat with JBJ personally but I just wanted people to expect a drop off in production initially and be realistic.  I think JBJ will be an importaint part of the team for years to come, but he only projects to be a 265 hitter with about a 365 OBP... very good player and one I am happy to have on the team. 

     

    One thing not discussed was the mental approach and the maturity that JBJ has.  He has the right mindset to be a successful major league player and is very even keeled and a good teammate from all reports.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jacoby will get the big contract, but will never be the same !!!!!!!!!

    [/QUOTE]


    Good old Bill-806. Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose...

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    Freddie Lynn is leaving? I hope he doesn't go to the Angels.

     

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    Why mention Freddy Lynn? That offseason between 1980 and 1981 was no fun. All my favorite players left, including Fred.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    Fred Lynn was my favorite player

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    In response to terminator-x's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why mention Freddy Lynn? That offseason between 1980 and 1981 was no fun. All my favorite players left, including Fred.

    [/QUOTE]

    That had to be the darkest moment in Red Sox offseason history since selling Babe Ruth.

    My fave at that time was Rick Burleson.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    man, Fred Lynn could go get em'.....was always reminded of him watching Andy Van Slyke and Jim Edumds..

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    That time he crashed into the CF wall was scary.

     
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    Re: Good BYE FRED LYNN , hello Jackie Bradley Jr..........

    OK Bill, I hope you are not going to try to predict the future of another Red Sox prospect...you struck out on Lavarnway, please don't mess it up for JBJ too.

     
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