Re: Good News That Is Being Ignored
posted at 3/13/2013 9:32 AM EDT
And if they do poorly, what kind of burger will you guys be eating?
Here is a question do you expect Buchholz to have a bloated ERA because of a slow start again?
I love Buch and think that if he is healthy, he'll be our #1 starter. The issue is always about his health, and back injuries are scary.
Or do you believe Lester truly lost it?
He has lost significant velocity. That is fact. Pitchers rarely get it back, so he needs to re-invent himself to some extent. That may take time. The second half of 2012 was encouraging, but there is serious doubt he can get back to #2 starter level in 2013. Of course, there's a chance he ca pitch like a #1 as well.
Or finally a bum elbow was not the true reason Lackey struggled in 2011?
I have no idea why he pitched worse than expected, but better than his numbers indicated in 2010. His 2011 season was certainly injury related, but that does not mean that he is healthy now, or that at his age, he will ever return to the numbers he had before signing with the Sox. That's about what we need from our #3 this year to have a legitimate shot.
If you answer no to all three the rotation probably makes the playoffs, two the win 85 games, one really struggle, and zero yes they will be in the bottom half.
Looking at these 3 individually, your point is well taken, but what's the chances all 3 of these things come true? We waited 5 years for Beckett, Lester, and Buch to all do well at the same time: it never happened. Now, Beckett is gone. I'd have given Beckett better odds of having a good year in 2013 than Lackey, so I don't see why we should feel more encouraged this year than the last 5. I do like our #4-8 starters better than recent years, so maybe they can pick up the slack if 1 or 2 of the top 3 falter, but I'm not counting on it.
I'm not a math expert, but let's give the odds Buch pitches great at 75%, Lester at 60%, and Lackey at 50%.
What's the odds all 3 pitch great? Certainly less than 50%.
What's the odds of 2 pitching great? Certainly over 50%, but not by much.