In response to miscricket's comment:

Me too. For all this good start this spring, you never know how things will go when the season starts. For that matter, it's spring and so to some extent, you never know when someone will have a clunker. Look at Verlander on Monday.

 

In response to royf19's comment:

Buchholz looks good so far and today he mentioned feeling more comfortable taking less time between pitches as Farrell and Nieves have encouraged all pitchers to do this spring.  It seems the Beckett "disciples" picked up quite a few bad habits over the years. By all accounts, Dempster is a terrific mentor for a lot of these young pitchers. This pitching staff could really surprise this year (the talent is obviously there), and there definitely seems to be more rotation depth than they've had in a long time.  The "we are doomed" group just might get a big ol' sheet burger to eat by the end of the year. 

In response to jasko2248's comment:

And if they do poorly, what kind of burger will you guys be eating?

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Here is a question do you expect Buchholz to have a bloated ERA because of a slow start again? Or do you believe Lester truly lost it? Or finally a bum elbow was not the true reason Lackey struggled in 2011? If you answer no to all three the rotation probably makes the playoffs, two the win 85 games, one really struggle, and zero yes they will be in the bottom half.

The starting pitching has been far and away the top story of the spring, but I'm reading very little about it. Proves that good news doesn't sell papers or get internet hits. Even Lackey's high ERA can be largely attributed to one three run homer and as someone pointed out it doesn't reflect four good innings against a very good Puerto Rico team. To see him throw is to believe that he will be much better this year. He looks like a different guy, he's throwing downhill again and his fastball has life. Someone also wrote about pitchers coming back from TJ surgery struggling with control? Not Lackey as he has been ahead of almost every hitter. He could be the biggest and most pleasant surprise on a staff that will surprise a lot of people.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

It's sad when you get to the point where you would rather be "right" than see your favorite team have a successful season.  It's one think to go "glass is half empty," but it's entirely another when you get to the point when you basically "expect" worse case scenario for each player on the team.  Is it because the Sox didn't get the unavailable players that you wanted like Brett Anderson, Justin Upton and Brandon McCarthy, or is it because they didn't decide to get rid of every veteran and field a glorified AAA team as you have suggested in other threads? 

 

Jasko bringing the hammer DOWN!

i just think moon doesn't want to be disappointed again. If you have low expectations your less likely to be disappointed. besides, every other year moon has high hopes for our team they suck. maybe now that he's predicting them to suck they will do good :)

he is pulling reverse phychology on fate

In response to jidgef's comment:

i agree, they have looked excellent but i haven't heard SQUAT about them. the boston media only cares about drama and negativity. if the sox play well they will be forced to leave the rabble rousing behind and actually be analytical again..

Why can't we be critical of poor Spring Stats if you can praise good ones?

In response to mef429's comment:

You know Moon can handle it, Mef...His "just a hunch, but I think the Sox starting rotation will finish in the bottom half of the league" post on a thread praising the pitching so far put me over the edge.

Someone told me during the Winter Meetings that Beckett being gone will have more of a positive affect on this entire rotation than Farrell being back will.  Then I read Tito's book where he mentioned the pitchers were emulating Beckett to the point where Lester was wearing cowboys boots and speaking with a southern drawl.  That's the kind of "chemistry" that most people don't understand.  Ryan Dempster wasn't just brought in because of the stats on the back of baseball card...

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

 

Why can't we be critical of poor Spring Stats if you can praise good ones?

 

I hate to say it, but I was thinking the same thing.  I was knocking Lackey a week+ back, as I still don't trust him.  While I applauded him loudly for coming back in shape, with a great attitude (NEW!), I still thought he never had it & never would.  He did not look good at all in the first several outings, with a HUGE ERA.  I said it....  Selenium & others went wild, excoriating me for knocking a guy base on ST pitching, as it meant "NOTHING!"  "How rediculous you look for commenting on ST pitching rsdd!!!  Clearly you know nothing about baseball!" (despite you being a former pitcher & avid RS fan!!!)

BUT.....  It's a ok to say a guy looks GREAT!  You can't be a "real" RS fan and criticize ANY RS player.  Even when said player played a huge role in leading our young SR astray over the past few years.  HEY !  BREATHE!  RELAX!  I'm not talking about your mother.  Lighten up Francis!

THE POINT BEING.......

EnchiladaT is spot on!  Many are hypocrites.  OR....  More likely very thin skinned?  They act as though it's worse than if you had kicked their puppy, if you dare tweak a guy.  Talk ad nosium about the pitchers "LOOKING GREAT :)  Best pitching staff in history,"  and you're aces!!!  Take a shot at a guy who shared a MAJOR PART OF THE BLAME for almost destroying the attitudes, conditioning, & the mental aspect of pitching for our entire SR (IMO!!!!), and watch out!  IRONIC???  Eh hemmm....

***************

Having said that.....  I'm actually really pulling for Lackey!  I hope he kicks ____ & takes names!  NOTHING would make me happier!!!  Again..  I'm very pleased with his conditioning, attitude, & what appears to be a drastically improved mental game.

CUE THE "That's impossible rsdd.  You can't possibly hang on to reservations & resentment and still pull for a guy" crew!  These linear thinkers can't wrap their little brains around the laws of mutual exclusivity.  SOME THINGS are simply NOT mutually exclusive!  Opinions, feelings, and critiques are not subject to the laws of mutual exclusivity!  DEAL WITH IT!  btw...  deal with the irony also.  Let's hear some more glowing praise for how the SR is looking in SPRING TRAINING!

p.s.  I also think our guys are looking good!  Expecially Lester & Buch!!!  :)  Good stuff!  Oooops!  Blowing a few more minds!  You can't love the RS & 99% of the players & occasionally knock a guy or two!  It's impossible!!!  Ahhhhhhhhh!  Somebody has to stop him!!!

 

:)  Thank you for the rant  :)

In response to mef429's comment:

I mean technically I do agree with Softlaw. In theory you can have a 7 or 8 ERA and win 20-25 games. Realistically tho If the starting pitchers have a bad era they will win less games. Its more likely that a team wins more when they have a sub 3 or 4 average for the staff. If our worst Era is 4.5 (Lackey) and two pitchers have a close to 3 era well be fine 

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

I think the OP was aimed at people who are focussing on the negative news and ignoring the positive news.  If you're focussed on both then you're being objective.

In response to royf19's comment:

 

Too many posters like to focus on the negative and complain, so it seems one key thing, something more important than any of the other so-called issues, has been overlooked.

STARTING PITCHING

Here is the spring ERA of the Sox five projected starters so far:

Lester 14 IP, 1.29 ERA
Buchholz 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA
Dempster 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA
Doubront 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA
Lackey 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA

I'm the last one to make too much of small samples and especially spring stats. But considering the issues of starting pitching the Sox had last year, you've got to be encouraged by what we've seen from the starters so far.

Lackey's ERA is high -- again small sample -- but even he has shown a lot of good things. We'll see how things work out going forward this spring and once the season starts, but so far, I'm loving what the starters have been doing.

 

 

I'm not sure it's being ignored by many of us Roy but ST is what it is and rarely against a teams best lineup.  It's certainly positive and what we all knew was a possibility with a few of these guys but the one person who still stands out is Lackey.  Hes coming off bad seasons and TJ, and still struggling even with the rust around the young season.  Lackey has always shown some good stuff, the problem is it is usually surrounded by bad stuff since coming here.

Not a great sign, for our sake I hope it changes!

In response to craze4sox's comment:

 

In response to royf19's comment:

 

Too many posters like to focus on the negative and complain, so it seems one key thing, something more important than any of the other so-called issues, has been overlooked.

STARTING PITCHING

Here is the spring ERA of the Sox five projected starters so far:

Lester 14 IP, 1.29 ERA
Buchholz 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA
Dempster 8.2 IP, 2.08 ERA
Doubront 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA
Lackey 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA

I'm the last one to make too much of small samples and especially spring stats. But considering the issues of starting pitching the Sox had last year, you've got to be encouraged by what we've seen from the starters so far.

Lackey's ERA is high -- again small sample -- but even he has shown a lot of good things. We'll see how things work out going forward this spring and once the season starts, but so far, I'm loving what the starters have been doing.

 

 

I'm not sure it's being ignored by many of us Roy but ST is what it is and rarely against a teams best lineup.  It's certainly positive and what we all knew was a possibility with a few of these guys but the one person who still stands out is Lackey.  Hes coming off bad seasons, TJ, and still struggling in my opinion although showing a couple positives. 

This has been the Lackey we have all seen since coming here, lets hope for more.

 

 

 

WOW!!!!!!  A positvie thread without political ramblings, name calling, and people ready to jump off the roof....who'd a thunk it?!?! 

I agree....I'm VERY excited to see how the pitchers are doing.  The big thing is they are hitting the corners and keeping the ball down.  Two things that never seemed to happen last year.  I also liked to hear today that the staff is trying to keep up the pace when on the mound.  Keeps the hitters unsteady and the defense ready. 

Great thread!!  THANKS!!!!!!!

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

Yup, there's been a real shortage of critical threads here...

And if they do poorly, what kind of burger will you guys be eating?

 

 

Here is a question do you expect Buchholz to have a bloated ERA because of a slow start again?

I love Buch and think that if he is healthy, he'll be our #1 starter. The issue is always about his health, and back injuries are scary.

Or do you believe Lester truly lost it?

He has lost significant velocity. That is fact. Pitchers rarely get it back, so he needs to re-invent himself to some extent. That may take time. The second half of 2012 was encouraging, but there is serious doubt he can get back to #2 starter level in 2013. Of course, there's a chance he ca pitch like a #1 as well.

Or finally a bum elbow was not the true reason Lackey struggled in 2011?

I have no idea why he pitched worse than expected, but better than his numbers indicated in 2010. His 2011 season was certainly injury related, but that does not mean that he is healthy now, or that at his age, he will ever return to the numbers he had before signing with the Sox. That's about what we need from our #3 this year to have a legitimate shot.

If you answer no to all three the rotation probably makes the playoffs, two the win 85 games, one really struggle, and zero yes they will be in the bottom half.

Looking at these 3 individually, your point is well taken, but what's the chances all 3 of these things come true? We waited 5 years for Beckett, Lester, and Buch to all do well at the same time: it never happened. Now, Beckett is gone. I'd have given Beckett better odds of having a good year in 2013 than Lackey, so I don't see why we should feel more encouraged this year than the last 5.  I do like our #4-8 starters better than recent years, so maybe they can pick up the slack if 1 or 2 of the top 3 falter, but I'm not counting on it. 

I'm not a math expert, but let's give the odds Buch pitches great at 75%, Lester at 60%, and Lackey at 50%.

What's the odds all 3 pitch great?  Certainly less than 50%.

What's the odds of 2 pitching great? Certainly over 50%, but not by much.

In response to mef429's comment:

Although I have voiced concerns over the chances our big 3 SPs (Josh, Jon and Clay) would all do well at the same time over recent years, I still projected us at 94+ wins for at least the last 3 seasons. Yes, I have been dissapointed, and injuries were a big part of those results, but I see no reason to be equally optimistic as I was the last few years, in fact, with Beckett gone, I feel less optimistic. After all, this would have been Beckett's "on year".

I have not given up hope, but I'm not confusing hope with reality either.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

That one is easy.  Just multiply the % by each other.  .75 * .60 * .50 = 22.5%.

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

Sorry B, but I haven't seen you bringing up any stats lately.

This post has been removed.

In response to royf19's comment:

Yes, the SP has been pretty impressive thus far, but we better find a closer soon cause neither Bailey or Hanrahan have looked good.

In response to jasko2248's comment:

+100

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Maybe Beckett was partially to blame for some of the trouble of our other starters, ie; slow pace, attitude, etc...

Without him, although a proven starter, I think this is the perfect case of addition by subtraction...Lester, Lackey and Buch are better with Dempster as a veteran leader than Beckett and Farrell leading the team rather than BV any day of the week. Weve already seen many positive changes already. Thats encouraging going into the season.

I, for one, am thrilled that Beckett and his bad vibes are out of here.