the only thing that this debacle proves is that I was 100% correct
Fangraphs does not project future value.
It had Drew's 2013 value at $16.9M.
The Sox offered him $14.1M.
He turned it down.
I'm not sure how this proves you were "right", or fangraphs' was wrong.
Draft picks have real value to teams. Any offer made to Drew will take into account the value of that lost pick. Borass knows that. Drew should have known that known that. Drew messed up- not fangraphs.
Say what? Are you saying there is no correlation between Fangraphs projected worth and what they actually get? Get out of here Moon.....
Fangraphs has a metric that places a dollar value on what a player did over a given time. The contract is signed before the season begins, and often the two numbers are not similar.
I'm sure several teams have their own metrics, formulas or processes to determine the value of a player's performance. I'm sure past performance plays a role in helping determine future value of a player, but there are several other factors involved, including age, health, and areas of need.
Just because Drew had a fangraph's value of $16.9M, that does not mean that is what he should or will get in 2014, however, my point was that if you figure his value to be about $30M/2 and subtract the $10M value of the lost high draft pick, then one might assume he'll sign for about $20M/2... which is probably about what he will get. In Drew's case, the fangraph's value (after adjusting the draft choice value) will probably be pretty close to what he gets.